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Gold Up on Short Covering, Friendly Outside Markets in a Quiet, Pre-Holiday SessionBy Jim Wyckoff of Kitco News Thursday December 24, 2015 12:32 (Kitco News) -Gold prices ended the U.S. day session and a holiday-shortened trading week modestly higher Thursday. Some short covering in the futures market and perceived bargain-basement buying in the cash market heading into a long weekend gave gold its lift. The key “outside markets” were also in a bullish posture for the precious metals on this day. The U.S. dollar index was lower and crude oil prices were firmer. February Comex gold was last up $7.90 at $1,076.20 an ounce. March Comex silver was last up $0.103 at $14.39 an ounce. There were no major international news developments Thursday and the marketplace worldwide was very subdued ahead of the Christmas holiday on Friday. Many U.S. markets closed early today. Technically, gold bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. However, if the gold bulls can produce a good rally soon, then the specter arises for a bullish “double-bottom” reversal pattern forming on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at the December high of $1,088.30. Bears' next near-term downside price breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $1,045.40. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $1,081.40 and then at $1,088.30. First support is seen at the overnight low of $1,069.50 and then at this week’s low of $1,063.10. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 2.5 Silver bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. However, the recent choppy trading at lower price levels begins to hint of a near-term low. But the bulls need to show more power soon to better suggest such. Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing December futures prices above solid technical resistance at the December high of $14.64 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the contract low of $13.62. First resistance is at $14.50 and then at $14.64. Next support is seen at this week’s low of $14.045 and then at $14.00.

Gold Holds On To Early Gains Following As-Expected Fed Rate Hike Wednesday December 16, 2015 14:26 (Kitco News) - Gold prices were trading higher in afternoon dealings Wednesday and holding on to early gains in the aftermath of the first interest rate increase from the U.S. Federal Reserve since 2006. Short covering and position evening in the futures markets, and bargain hunting in the cash markets, were featured in gold and silver ahead of this afternoon's FOMC statement. February gold was last up $10.70 an ounce at $1,072.30. March silver futures were last up $0.39 an ounce at $14.16. Many traders reckoned the gold market would exhibit a "sell the rumor, buy the fact" scenario regarding the Fed rate increase this afternoon, and wanted to get a jump on that scenario. Thus, the gains seen in gold prior to the Fed rate hike. Silver prices followed gold’s lead today. The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement this afternoon was deemed to be in the dovish camp. However, the U.S. dollar index did rally on the FOMC news. What will now be closely watched is Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s press conference after the meeting that could provide more clues on the pace of future interest rate increases. In overnight news, the Euro zone consumer price index for November came in at down 0.1%, month-on-month and up 0.2% year-on-year. The report suggests deflation remains a serious concern in the European Union and that the European Central Bank is likely to embark upon more monetary policy stimulus measures sooner rather than later. The ECB wants to see an annual inflation rate of 2.0%. The Euro zone December composite purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 54.0 in December versus 54.2 in November. A reading of 54.2 was expected for December. However, the manufacturing PMI came in at 53.1 in December compared to 52.8 in November. The manufacturing number was expected to show a reading of 52.8 in December. Technically, February gold futures prices were near mid-range in afternoon trading. Gold bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. There are still no early clues of a market bottom being close at hand. Gold bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at the December high of $1,088.30. Bears' next near-term downside price breakout objective is pushing prices below solid longer-term technical support at the contract low of 1,045.40. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $1,077.90 and then at $1,085.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $1,060.20 and then at this week’s low of $1,057.40. Encouraging for the Gold Bulls, price remains higher, stable.

Earlier this year in a chat in, January I think, you said you could see the dinar rv upwards to the 50 cent range. With all that has gone on with Iraq this year, more oil, more gold, security, government, IMF and UN aid, etc...do you still feel/think they can rv that high? I know about your 10 cent stance, and believe me...I'm a believer in 'at least' that for an rv. I was just curious if you've heard anything about a possible rate of 13-26 cents, like a few other middle east countries are currently valued at as well. Just so Iraq can be 'on par' with some of their neighbors.

If it were $2,300 for every 25K dinar note, that would 9.2 cents per dinar...close to Adam's 10 cent mark!

not a problem, figuring out rate-calculations has become a semi-hobby.

Around $11,500 per note @ .23.

Gold Rebounds from 5.5-Year Low as U.S. Dollar Hammered, Euro Currency Surges Thursday December 03, 2015 13:43 (Kitco News) - Gold prices saw a moderate short-covering and bargain-hunting bounce in the aftermath of the European Central Bank easing its monetary policy Thursday. The ECB move was not unexpected but did prompt big price reversals in the U.S. dollar index (down) and the Euro currency (up) on this day. That led to the rebound in gold after its price overnight dropped to a 5.5-year low. Silver prices hit a six-year low Thursday. February Comex gold was last up $7.80 at $1,061.50 an ounce. March Comex silver was last up $0.096 at $14.105 an ounce. The regular meeting of the ECB saw the central bank make its easing move, lower the deposit rate by 0.1%. Mario Draghi’s ensuing press conference was deemed by many European market watchers as not going far enough in the ECB’s easing measure. What is surprising is that the Euro currency rallied sharply and the dollar index sold off sharply. This is a classic “buy the rumor, sell the fact” scenario for the USDX and a “sell the rumor, buy the fact” for the Euro currency. Don’t be surprised if the same contrary effect occurs if the FOMC raises its interest rates on December 16. The marketplace was still digesting some data and comments from the U.S. Federal Reserve Wednesday. While containing no surprises, the Fed’s beige book and comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen reinforced notions the U.S. central bank will slightly raise U.S. interest rates in two weeks—for the first time in nine years. This did limit stronger buying interest in gold and silver markets Thursday. Yellen delivered a speech and testimony on the economy to U.S. lawmakers Thursday, but it was pretty much in line with what she said Wednesday. The important U.S. jobs report is due out Friday. The key non-farm payrolls number is expected to be up around 205,000 in November. An OPEC oil cartel meeting also begins Friday and will be closely watched by the marketplace. There is talk Saudi Arabia may propose a collective oil-production cut for 2016, with the stipulation that non-OPEC members also cut their production levels. Most believe such a plan is a non-starter. Technically, February gold futures prices closed nearer the session high today and did hit another contract and a 5.5-year low early on. Gold prices are still in a six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bears still have the solid near-term technical advantage and there are no early clues of a market bottom being close at hand. Bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of $1,080.50. Bears' next near-term downside price breakout objective is pushing prices below solid longer-term technical support at 1,000.00. First resistance is seen at $1,062.40 and then at Wednesday’s high of $1,071.00. First support is seen at $1,050.00 and then at today’s contract low of $1,045.40. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 1.5 March silver futures prices closed nearer the session high on short covering after hitting a contract and six-year low early on today. The silver market bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $14.50 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $13.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $14.24 and then at $14.44. Next support is seen at today’s contract low of $13.805 and then at $13.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0. March N.Y. copper closed up 285 points at 206.10 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high on short covering. The key “outside markets” were fully bullish for copper today as the U.S. dollar index was sharply lower and crude oil prices were solidly higher. Copper bears still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 220.00 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 200.00 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 208.85 cents and then at 210.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 202.55 cents and then at the contract low of 200.20 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.

Been buying since Gold fell under $1,200/ounce. Yes, a pretty substantial decline so far this morning. I know what I'm buying this Black Friday!

Can this VIP get a 'verify me'?

Recent articles this week include: 50k notes, 100k notes new 500 notes, coins lower than 250 dinar IMF IQD rate at 1500-1, Turki saying 2000-1 raising value against the dollar... Confusion, smoke,....? Something is up.

"the central bank has new plans to issue a new currency less than the category of the 250 Iraqi dinars to fill the Iraqi market needs,..." ...To me, (I may be misinterpreting it, as is 80% of Iraqi articles) this line promotes currency LESS than the 250 IQD. Maybe as in 100, 50, 20, 10, etc... If so, could they be the 'gold coins' Iraq said they would produce for citizens? If that's the case, an increase in value would be needed. Just my , if i'm understanding this article correctly.

The way Central Banks have been buying Gold, it won't be down much longer.

Agreed. Been buying quite a bit lately with these prices the past few weeks. Gonna need a bigger safe...

The only 'Bruce' I listen to has the last name Springsteen.

Gold Is A Bargain Right Now, But No One Is Paying Attention - Rob McEwen Nov 10, 2015 Guest(s): Rob McEwen owner of McEwen Mining, a mid-tier gold and silver producer. ‘If you are in Australia, Canada, the price is going up because of the foreign exchange -- at some point, it will move in U.S. dollar terms,’ McEwen said in an interview with Kitco News on Monday. He added, ‘People should be putting a little money into gold, think of it as 80-90 percent off; you can turn gold into cash in two days, it is value.’ McEwen, the former founder and CEO of Goldcorp said one of the greatest challenges the mining industry now faces, is operating within the lower cost environment. December Comex gold was last up $0.30 at $1,088.50 an ounce. McEwen also addressed the company’s record production for the third quarter with the El Gallo Mine, which he said is the company’s, ‘star performer.’ Total output for the July-September period was 43,390 gold-equivalent ounces, an increase of 54% over the third quarter of 2014. The El Gallo mine in Mexico was robbed last April but McEwen said the company has received reimbursement for approximately 80% of the fair value of a loss. ‘You have to be a little more sensitive to the local community -- we built a new refinery and it is now according to Brinks – the state of art facility in Mexico,’ McEwen said. Kitco News, November 10, 2015. ...I sound like a broken record, but I happen to agree with him. Gold won't be this low forever.

Totally agree with you on this. Same thing happened earlier in October, revised jobs numbers were lower and Gold gained quite a bit on that day. The U.S., especially the Fed, seem to be in on the price manipulation of metals.

Hoping for a bounce-back week for Gold, seeing how the last few trading days went. Still good prices for buyers right now.

An RV @ .10 cents, and he won't really be taking a pay reduction!

Still confidence in Gold today, even after the jobs numbers. After it fell down into $1170's in rallied back up to $1190's again. Settling nicely around $1187 currently. Bought over 6 grams myself today.

...Meanwhile, another prediction for Gold going in the other direction... UBS Sees Gold Averaging $1,250 In 2016; Any Weakness ‘Unlikely To Be Sustained’ Friday October 09, 2015 08:54 (Kitco News) - UBS looks for gold prices to rebound into next year as real interest rates remain subdued compared to past cycles, maintaining its call for the metal to average $1,250 an ounce in 2016. The bank downwardly revised its 2015 forecast to $1,170 an ounce from $1,190. Meanwhile, UBS trimmed its 2016 silver forecast, although the bank still looks for price appreciation next year. The bank also sees higher prices for platinum group metals. “We maintain our core constructive view, expecting gold to stabilize and eventually recover up ahead,” UBS said in an outlook issued Friday. “We think that gold has already done a lot to adjust to the current macro environment and anticipate further changes. We expect any downside from here to be ultimately contained.” Expectations for higher interest rates have previously hurt gold. However, UBS said, there is potential for real rates to be lower compared to previous cycles and market expectations, which would mean a friendlier environment for gold than what currently appears to be priced into the market. “Against the backdrop of broader macro uncertainty, light positioning suggests that there may be an opportunity for longer-term investors to rebuild positions,” UBS said. “Despite subdued physical demand this year, we expect core trends to remain stable and provide support during periods of weakness. Supply-side response is lacking, but we think that the market is close to finding equilibrium and considerably lower prices from here are unlikely to be sustained over a prolonged period.” Meanwhile, UBS downgraded its silver outlook, acknowledging that the bank was “too ambitious” in previous forecasts. Analysts look cut their 2016 silver average price forecast to $17.50 from $20, although this is above current levels. The outlook for the current year was trimmed to $15.90 from $16.90. “Broader macro uncertainty and especially concerns about China's growth prospects warrant some scaling back in our price expectations for silver and our forecast trajectory for the gold:silver ratio,” UBS said. “Silver's continued struggle to outperform gold highlights the reluctance of market participants to get involved, against the backdrop of an overall timid attitude towards precious metals this year. Despite resilient ETFs (exchange-traded funds) and relatively healthy physical demand, the absence of interest from investors suggests that silver is likely to continue looking to gold for direction, staying true to its role as a higher-beta version of the yellow metal.” UBS said it trimmed its forecast for platinum prices in future years by 11% but nevertheless looks for the metal to move higher. The 2016 outlook is for an average $1,100. Platinum is down 24% for the year to date. Still, UBS sees potential for a supply shortfall in the coming years. “The trend in longer-term fundamentals remains intact: a challenging supply environment is augmented by growth in global auto demand and tightening emissions regulations,” UBS said. “Risks to this view include a faster decline in diesel penetration in Europe and resilience in South African platinum production.” The bank also remains “constructive” on palladium, forecasting an average of $780 next year. The metal has recovered from an “overdone” correction, further helped by the recent investigation into Volkswagen, UBS said. UBS said it’s too early to factor assumptions about the VW situation into its longer-term analysis of platinum group metals, and analysts instead “flag it as a risk for now.” Platinum fell on worries that the VW situation would mean less demand for diesel-powered vehicles, which use platinum for catalysts. Meanwhile, the market factored in expectations that more consumers would buy gasoline-powered vehicles, which use palladium, boosting prices of this metal. ...and Gold above $1,156/oz right now.

I figured Gold would rally earlier this morning when it broke into $1154 today. Then minutes later it slumped back down into the mid $1140's. It has to break higher, sooner or later...to much economic uncertainty around the globe and central banks are adding more to their reserves. I added another 2 ounces to my safe earlier this week. Buying while it's still at a discount price.

We have quite a few Gold commercials/informercials playing regularly, especially on the business and news channels. Haven't noticed a difference in how frequent they run, but I usually see 3-4 a day between 4 different channels.

A combination of: a)the jobs numbers b)stocks sliding lower c)Yellen's speech later today d)short covering Gold now currently above $1,150/oz. A good +2% gain from yesterday.

I've been thinking/saying this for the past few months. A big, big mess may hit the fan soon, been building up for years. Best thing to do is buy metals now at the cheap prices they are currently sitting at. Gold and silver will be in huge demand, and highly valuable. Holding even a little now will help a lot later on.

Good interview. I've read a handful of articles and seen a number of interviews on tv this past month where pro-gold, or "gold bugs", have said $1400/oz is where gold should be by end of 2016 or first quarter 2017. That's about a 25% increase from where it sits currently...good time to buy now if you agree with the latest predictions. That being said, silver, imo, should increase much higher than gold, percentage wise.