Dalite

Should be required reading for the PumperGuru Sect and their followers. Even their theological authorities understand that total dependence on oil will stifle growth of the economy, and hamper the future value of the currency.

I don't believe currency value is a part of it. I think it has the following incomplete items Recognize lines of demarcation (borders) Return artifacts, and identify grave sites resulting from Saddam's invasion Pay Debt owed to Kuwait. If I could guess what they are dragging their feet on, it would be acknowledging the borders. If they can keep that cloudy, it paves the way for slant drilling or another invasion. Whatever seems easier than working for a living, seems to be a factor in decision making over there. Money is being set aside for repaying Kuwait UNAMI is helping oversee the graves and artifacts. Don't look for any Arab to give in to a requirement, unless it can be portrayed as winning. The border issue could go on a few more thousand years. They are doing the same posturing over the land bordering Kurdistan. Still hoping for a move toward compliance and resolution.

Hope to see a confirmation, or denial from other sources so we can tell if this current, or recycled. Is it real, or is it Memorex ?

There will be no surplus as long as Maliki is coming home with shopping bags full of fighter planes and tanks whenever he makes a junket to Russia, and other Military Shopping Meccas. If you give M the Charge Card, the Citizens will always get Zip, and the Kurds get another reason to harden their defenses. Any surplus in oil proceeds seems to always go toward the planning of the next attack. If they can't goad an external invasion, they will invade themselves. If I was an Iraqi citizen, I would forget Socialism and learn a skill. Otherwise, they can watch their contry to continue being a spiral toward illiteracy and further failure of civilization . It would appear that M even has the Sadr movement by the short hairs... Oil Surplus to the Citizens; don't give up your day job (if you have one).

130 billion USD is 130 Billion USD. It makes no difference Currently. It is close to 130 trillion Dinar. If the budget was 130 Billion Dinar, everyone would be doing the happy dance.

I usually don't weigh in on the uber contraversial political/religious topics, but... When you have a group of people, single-minded in beliefs, who excel at immigrating to other societies, and forming very large immediate families, it does raise an eyebrow or two. You don't have to create 10 to 20 offspring, per fertile female in order to enjoy one's religion. You don't need to create 6 generations of family in one generation. You don't need to contract out your daughters to go forth and multiply before they finish grade school. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see a pattern here. When you plan to become the major faction in the world, in terms of percentage of population, you don't need bullets, you need daughters. They really don't have to be overtly radical, just proficient in increasing their mass. But, when you have 10 or 15 kids, you can afford to have a few strap in a vest and make a date with Allah; and hardly even miss them afterwards. The concept of the Nuclear Family has seen a little mission creep to become perpetual fission.

Not an economist by a long shot, but... If Iraq plans to build up textiles, tourism, or manufacturing items for export, it is in their favor to keep the exchange rate low. If they continue to rely on oil alone, the chance to increase the value of their currency won't even be an issue; they will always be as poor as they are today. If they diversify their production, they will start to improve the standard of living, which will go a lot further toward giving their economy growth than relying 95% on the volatility of a product that fluctuates too much in value to provide any economic stability. As long as oil is the main source of their income, they will have to continue to keep their money's value low to keep from losing purchasing power when oil drops in price. With other production (agriculture, textiles, tourism, manufacturing) there is a cushion, as it is less likely that the value of more available means of producing will go down at the same time. This gives them the choice of keeping the value low, where relying entirely on oil takes away that choice and keeps the economy too volitile to chance increase in value of money at the mercy of lower oil prices. This is where Iraq is now, and has been since inflation has crossed below 10%, which triggered the move back from a crawling peg where the exchange rate got better, as inflation got lower. This is why the CBI is trying to promote Currency Reform. The balance they have achieved won't always be static. When the Euro rises against the Dollar, the fashion conscious in Europe hop on a plane, fly to New York, and shop. When your money goes further in one country than in another country, and both offer the same class of exports, you will gravitate toward where you get the most value for your money. Taiwan , China, Vietnam Nam, they all took the class. They seem to have very little intention to ever let their money gain value. They are having way too good of a time flooding the market with their cheap (and sometimes toxic) exports.

Even better, split it between Kuwait and Kurdistan, put large Bases in both halves, and gain some insurance against Russia, China and Iran. It couldn't possibly be worse, or move any further bassackwards than they are doing now. These folks excel in failure. But just ask any Guru, and they will tell you Iraq is the hope of the future. Wherever they have their heads, there must not be much oxygen.

I can't determine if it is just anger, lack of understanding, or jealousy; but you are really doing a number on your self here. You may want to go back to some of the Guru chats. They don't know any better, and are more likely to buy what you are trying unsuccessfully to sell here.. And, Since you brought it up, what real estate I do own was purchased for mineral rights, and has increased tenfold. Still haven't mined it, but it was a fair long shot. The Gold and Silver have been accumulating for nearly 50 years. It ain't rocket science; it is a place to park wealth until more profitable ways return. I will promise you that I won't be losing anything in good and silver... How about them Dinars?

Not only that, they also paid the Warlords on a regular basis to keep them from blowing things up and killing the citizens. When you are dealing with mercs, the USD is king; for everything else, there is Dinar.. The Dinar was weakened by Saddam over printing and declaring an unrealistic value. By the time these Billions hit the ground, the Dinar had sunk to a low of around 4000:1, and was finally on the upswing. When you have that low of a country's monetary value, it must be controlled as things improve to prevent too fast a rise which would just offset the work being done to reduce hyperinflation. The currency auctions still perform a similar duty.

Great point... The Gold I bought at $300.00 an ounce has simply under performed in relationship to the Dinar, and no one is pushing the Dinar for profit; Right? It's not like it is used as a super conductor in critical electronic components. Also, it just falls up from a hole, refined, and prepared not to be used as a superconductor, or store of wealth, Right? And no one in today's society is vain enough to wear gold jewelry, Right? And China is just loading up on it as well as telling their citizens to do likewise because it doesn't hold worth against paper currency, Right? And the bric union isn't really talking about using it to pay for oil, Right? Yeah, you really pegged that one... Not! One thing you will eventually learn is that gold has never lost purchasing power. It can buy today what it bought centuries ago. All that happens is that the cost to acquire it reflects the strength of the currency used for the purchase. By all means, keep educating us; it is quite entertaining...

And they are quick to spew venom when someone tries to take the time to show evidence of their idol's lies... Let them imbibe the Kool-aid, it is what they desire. I heard it said before, " Don't try to teach a pig to sing. It will never be able to carry a tune, and it Pi$$es off the pig" Let 'em Waller in the positive vibes of guru land. And be prepared to listen to their explanations when their favorite guru is indicted.

Currently, 1 trillion Dinar would be 14% less than a billion USD 1000 million is a billion 858 million is 86% of 1000 million Looks like the same ole exchange rate If 1 trillion Dinar was equal to 858 billion USD, the exchange rate would .86 USD. Pesky Zeros..

FWIW, what you outline is not what I signed on for. Having said that, there are a few stratifications of the Dinar speculator. For each one there is a different perspective available. For those in it while the CBI was moving from hyperinflation to single digits, the Dinar has doubled in value. For those who in it after the rate stabilized ( late 2009), it has been a parking lot for money , and a slow and painful wait for what looks like an even longer ride. Meanwhile, back at the ranch, the world economy is in the toilet. Value is being chased from one failing economy to another. Did the Dinar lose value during this time? Has it lost value at any other point in time since the CBI fell into Shabibi's lap? Are there indications that it will lose value in the immediate future? I don't know the ultimate answers to these questions, but I do know what I see when I turn on the world news. Economically, there is little stability out there. This has a possibility to be the Rabbit and the Hare of Economic Bedtime Stories. As long as Iraq can at least do as well as they are doing now, when the dust clears, they may have a valuable currency, just because it couldn't get worth much less in a world where every other currency was losing value. I sincerely hope to be wrong when I see the change being much slower and more painstaking than an overnight increase in value of millions. Like everyone else, I like the edge that anticipation brings; the dream of better things and a brighter future. Each has to make their own path; I have decided that what I put into this is the same as " found money". I have been so long without it that it gives the appearance it was never there. Any blip on my financial radar when the money was committed has long since smoothed out. The world financial mess was not anticipated to be as serious as it is now. Why not park some value in hard to find crevices. You may need to go looking for it later on, and may find unanticipated value, when you least expected it, long after you had stopped looking for it every day. For me, it became a matter of turning dissapointment in my own personal greed, clouding my judgement, into a search for Silver Linings. They are out there...

If they continue to not enforce tarriffs, they can survive with out any currency reform, and remain in the dark ages. Without tarriffs to make locally produced goods competitive, combined with market driven pricing on 95% of what they are able to produce, it makes little difference if the money is counterfeit, or has higher value. They will always be reliant on cheap imports, as they have proven the ability to live in squalor and dependent on someone else making what they need. What is worse, the lack of any uprising against these conditions indicates that they are not expecting any change, and may actually hope for a return to dictatorship. In that condition, there is no incentive to diversify production, and they will eventually have some form of socialism with the oil profit sharing. Currency Reform would be beneficial to the future, but these folks walk backward, and use a mirror to view the future. To them, the past and the present, is their future. What is worse is that they seem to like it.

What we now (may) know... The US was not able to influence the completion of the GOI - as far back as 2010 China and Russia can purchase all of iran's oil production, and seem willing to do so. China, Russia and Iran are moving away from the USD as petro-payment . If they prevail, much of OPEC will likely follow, perhaps leaving Saudi as the only holdout sticking with the dollar. ( the exact situation that was brewing when the US invaded Iraq - the second time. Maliki is Iran's friend, and that makes him a friend to China and Russia by proxy. While the US may be able to put pressure on ME banking institutions, it is not a RV they are considering, but survival of the USD as the world's reserve. Why would they influence a region to exact monetary policy that would further hasten the fall of the USD? None of this looks good for the home team...

Very interesting concept. Oil is paid for in dollars Some (perhaps all) of these dollars are converted to dinar by the GOI, via the CBI. Where would the 1.7b USD have gone in order to protect the Dinar exchange rate? What would it have been spent on? The dinar remains relatively stable, while the dollar fluctuates. The CBI does charge a 13 dinar per dollar premium for selling dollars in exchange for dinar. That is charged to the buyer, not borrowed from the IMF. Past info on this indicated it was banked separately from other funds. Is this the 1.7 billion that is referenced? Did Iraq borrow 3.7b USD, or was that from renewal of the stand by agreement? Anyone hear anything about a separate loan from the IMF, above and beyond what was renewed in July? Inquiring minds want to know.

A Kind Reminder: It's Puff, Puff, Pass NOT Puff, Puff, Post

Dictatorship is all they seem to understand. To them it means they are back in familiar surroundings. More and more seem to be getting Homesick. Democracy; what a concept. To them, it meant to share the corruption. This is like giving a child an unbreakable toy, which they promptly use to destroy all of their other, more fragile belongings.

Anything but progress; Iraq's contribution to the rest of the world. This is what the democratic experiment looks like when viewed through the rear view mirror: further away than it appears, backwards and fading from view with each passing minute.

The article was directly from the info available in a book to be released this week. It was a western article, as released in US media. The US has had little to no influence over Iraq since 2010. The article is published in 2 or 3 other threads on DV, and was first referenced yesterday with a direct link. Talabani was asked to step down in late 2010 and he refused. The US wanted Allawi to take his position to offset their fears of Maliki doing exactly whatever he is getting away with now. The Iraqi democracy has been augering in for nearly 2 years with no US intervention outside of periodic begging the US to give them something, or convince someone else to give them something. We have the same lack of input in their economic affairs. The IMF and Paris Club ( and remaining creditors ) would be the ones that may have some influence there. Okie has more clout over what Maliki does than the current administration.

Sign me up. If you can't drink it, you can use it in your lawn mower and car. Better than oil, and doesn't need refining .

Go to the Cabellas website, pick an item, then choose the currency you wish to use.... Most tradable currencies can be accepted at banks for exchange. The US is not a dual currency; but Iraq is. It won't always be that way, but is now and will be for a while longer. If they were to ban the USD, their economy would be in turmoil, as the GOI receives payments for oil in USD, and would have to go out of country to redeem it. Also, the import trade would take a large hit, and the citizens would get even less of what they need. It can be eventually be removed from circulation, but there has to be a way of building trust in the dinar first. Making a major change in dinar value without decreasing the supply is not going to build trust in the dinar; it will just inflate away the value back to a level that is in balance with their production and ability to back the exchange rate.

Good point; one I overlooked. And it could have just been a slow news day, but it would seem the the constant flow of replacing soiled currency with on hand printed " spares" would be SSDD. Unless the reservoir is drying up. Just like the lower denoms that were never released, or were withdrawn from use due to virtually no buying power, the excess currency to be used to replace soiled currency was off record, as it was not considered to be in circulation. Certainly bears watching to see if there is more of this story to come.

That would have been the Dirk Pitt era of Clive Cussler's fame. The move was highly entertaining, and the cast was well chosen. The only downer was Clive Cussler's decision not to allow any other movie representations of his books.