Rhnda

Ready for the next countdown!!!

The next countdown starts tomorrow at 4pm

You raise a few good points...I am not sure that there is really a lot of info coming out of Iraq directly relative to the RV subject. I honestly do not believe that appreciating the Dinar is on their short tern radar. Shabibi has stated the mandate of the CBI several times in the last few months, and last week he once again stated the mandate on VIDEO in an interview with the Wall Street Journal. "The primary mandate of the CBI is to control inflation and regulate price stability." I believe it is even in print on their site. So with those words fresh of the lips of "the man himself" my serious and legitimate question is this...If the stated goal is to control prices and keep inflation low, is it not somewhat counterintuitive to have an appreciation of the currency? They want a stable currency right now as they form new economic plans and monetary policy for the country.... Curious as to your response: your posts are typically positive and thought driven...thanks.

Welcome I think you are catching on...the answer is in your question...Why do you think there are no experts here? That is not only a very intelligent question but completely valid... You are on the right track to reach what will more than likely be a smart conclusion. Ask yourself this...if there was a potential upside to this investment, wouldn't it stand to reason that the currency traders and industry experts would be all over this like flies on stink? Valid question right? Sellers everywhere are jumping on board, there is even a company starting a new MLM on the RV story...why? Cash for the sellers...Where are the institutional investors you ask? LOL They wouldn't touch this with a ten foot pole. Anyhow...you will enjoy the reading...not much education...a bit like reading the Enquirer for investors. Enjoy!!! There never has been any real intent to appreciate the Iraqi Dinar....1160-1180 is an acceptable trading range. That should stir up the hornets nest a bit.

Though I am a huge naysayer, seems a good idea to wait for something factual.

Interesting post!!! There have been some interesting articles this last week: Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Market Watch (Shabibi video), and the AFP addressing some of these issues, though not specifically dinar in circulation....I did find it interesting that Shabibi himself stated that the primary mandate of the CBI is controlling inflation and price stability...Inflation has done quite well, down to 2.7%, though unemployment still hovers around 20%...I found it more interesting that he has said the current exchange rate of the dinar 1160-1180 is "acceptable." I too am curious about the 70% number as this should have a dramatic affect on price, but there is still no price movement... I did see a couple statements suggesting the the 43 billion in reserves was to hedge against the dollar....could use more clarity... CBI has lowered reserve requirements from 20% to 15%, but I don't recall seeing any specific #'s...input??? Liquidity or money movement is very restricted as most financing is state initiated (government lenders)...not seeing a lot of free market competition.... Shabibi also mentioned that the desired 7% economic growth rate HAS TO BE achieved independent of the oil industry...they hope to see human and physical infrastructure developed in agriculture, energy, defense, health...etc etc...right now 95% of all business is conducted by the government. I suppose bank privatization and further development in the ISX will help liquidity.... "We are still a cash society but it is developing and improving slowly," Shibibi said, asked why Iraqis are often reluctant to bank their money.... WIth a mandate to keep inflation low, 20% unemployment, minimal bank deposits....is there any room for currency appreciation? Anyhow...thanks for the post...hoping it stimulates some economic discussion...very cool...thanks again.

If you head over to Market Watch, he is interviewed (on video) by John Hilsenroth of the Wall St Journal...Shabibi talks about the primary mandate for the CBI being inflation control and price stability...He further explains that Iraqi monetary policy will not be tied to the oil industry and oil revenue...they are concerned about the "oil curse." He states that growth in the Iraqi economy will be tied to human and physical infrastructure. Doesn't sound like currency appreciation will be policy anytime soon....anyhow, it is always good to hear the words straight from the source. Maybe he should drop by the forum and dispel all the rumors...

Nope - haven't posted any of my nonsense in a while...

If you are running a construction company and fighting the daily battle to survive in SOCAL's economy, it is I who bow to you.... Although I am typically being a butt head on this forum, I do respect the presentation of your argument as it does lend hope to a revived Iraq....and though I am typically a bit disingenuous, I do wish you continued success with your company and your investment...

My "F" was for Incomplete...they cited failure to communicate and follow through on simple thought processes. I never got past Dear Diary - I love CDEW...that was my whole paper dude....and damned if they didn't flunk my mental midget ass right out of the class. No biggy, it wasn't really a learning institution as much as it was a special ed situation....I did get to ride at the front of the short bus...it was so kewl....they even gave me a shiny helmet. The members would most certainly NOT appreciate my masterpiece as it was crafted only for you It was almost a poem - I love you, CDEW....that is as far as I got....should be an "A" huh? Like it? C'mon....Ya know ya do, CDEW... You can have the last word...I gotta crash. Ciao

I'm giving you a +1 since they don't have gold stars.

You didn't miss much...they gave me an "F"...called me a mental midget...told me I should be locked away and treated for serious & disturbing social issues. I don't remember if the doctor called me sociopathetic or sociopathic...such big confusing words..In either case, gotta go find my meds. It was glorious chatting with you again. GO RV!!!

Your thoughtful and intelligent reply is most appreciated. Genuinely so... I don't usually invest from a negative position, typically a spread to either side works as a safe bet, depending on what conditions are CURRENTLY causing a rise or fall in a given investment. I can be a bit of a coward when tossing my cash into a futures investment where the conditions are highly speculative and I may lose a big chunk or all of my money...I hedge when I can... I assure you - I am no genius. Disingenuous, perhaps...that is a fair statement. Actually, I am more geared for stock options than currency options, as the risk is easier for me to calculate.... I am aware of past performance though not really a barometer for current or future perfomance, and I am aware of the 500 billion projection...I am also aware that the Iraqis hope to see 1.76 trillion in profit over the next 20 years from oil....ALL GOOD!!! Some of the natural gas contracts are being negotiated with Iran...than makes me a bit nervous. I have never traded in an unrecognized currency...I do think reduction of 70% liquidity is awesome, though that still leaves (i'm estimating, perhaps inaccurately) 10 trillion in circulation, which I believe is WAY too high even if GDP shoots up to 500 billion or even 1trillion. Inflation seems to be under control and I am uncertain about actual debt conditions.... The COD thing I will leave alone as I am certain my opinion will be regarded as inflammatory....but HELLO!!! I am not certain enough about introducing Dinar to the futures market so I am unable to make an intelligent comment....Liquidity will still have to come down significantly for prices to fluctuate....right now, supply is still off the charts, so no amount of demand will move the price.... To be honest, I am not concerned with whether you or I am right or wrong...My investment in Dinar is minimal so if I am wrong I make money, if I am right, I lose a grand. On one note I am fairly certain....if 1000% was even remotely possible, we wouldn't be having this conversation. I can concede that you may be smarter than I, but there is no way that I am smarter than the currency brokerages and the IMF...and their financial expertise suggests that this speculative investment is very sketchy at best. Markets are driven by interest and a willingness to speculate...No institutional investors are SEC registered market makers seem to give a hoot about Dinar. So who knows? Maybe I am missing something.... Lastly - I don't know why my negative opinion would be depressing...you seem confident and willing to state your case...I am willing to listen to it though I disagree, and I do not think you are foolish. I am probably just a big bag of hot air expressing a different opinion. I will say though that the rah rah go rv types make me a bit ill...but that's just me....don't take it personally. Thanks again and best wishes in all your financial endeavors.

I was really hoping you might shed some positive light on my slightly jaded opinion. I am still open minded enough to consider opinions and views contrary to mine.... Could you perhaps clarify "dinar thing?" Is English your native tongue? On what basis would you claim to know what I am doing with my Dinar? I really do want to hear your position and valuable input concerning just a few of the key economic factors contributing to the rise in value of the dinar. Please help....share a little bit of what you know.

Bane, I am really easy to sway. Could you put down your "Go RV" pom poms and help me understand the economic drivers that will influence appreciation in the Dinar. I am not really negative on the Dinar, though if there was any place on the planet that traded Dinar, I would probably short the currency options, or at least play a spread weighted more to the put than the call. Understand? When I post an opinion, because it doesn't jive with the majority, or more specifically your opinion, it is automatically viewed as negative. Keep in mind also that in the investment world, the money flow is based on both positive and negative positions, and just a point of humor, you can make a butt load of cash on the right negative position which is indeed positive. Make sense? Over a trillion dollars a day are traded in foreign currency investments....Every position or contract traded involves two sides...I love the US dollar, but I would probably short it against the euro.... The position is negative, but the potential financial outcome is positive.... If you can help me understand without the religious analogies I would be most appreciative. My IQ is in tact, I understand the economics and I don't invest on emotions...so please help!!! Lastly - there is a wonderful opportunity here to discuss and learn how to make money in currency trading. Perhaps less hype and more substance would be a benefit to all....Though it is not my forum, I think the suggestion is a positive one. There are some really intelligent folks on this forum and I am continually interested in their opinions when based on economic substance....if you can help me....please do....Many thanks.

I think there is an eventual upside to this investment...Whether you are throwing your money away or not is really a personal determination. I suppose it depends on how you measure success for your investment. In my humble opinion, what you LEARN from all this and how you use and sort through info, and then springboard to OTHER currency or stock related investments, is ALL WORTH THE PRICE OF ADMISSION. As a seller or a buyer, it is always EXTREMELY VALUABLE to study buyer's habits and hot buttons. I find this forum to be a valuable resource even if not related to getting rich off this particular investment.

Good logical post. As a broker you most certainly have asked yourself, Why do the multi billion dollar trading conglomerates that habitually rape and pillage profitable currency trading opportunities have ZERO interest in Dinar as evidenced by the simple fact that NOONE has made a market? If the dinar was about to have some real potential upside, then institutional investors would be on this opportunity like flies on poop. There is still so so so so very much to be accomplished before a trading market can be established, and once this finally does happen, the trading will NOT be in paper currency.... Since there is no real or valid market to trade Dinar, the short to midterm prognosis for a strong upside is very slim indeed....

Typically when a web site or forum develops a large following and then monetizes the site through various offerings and such, the monetary gain isn't usually LOPsided If a site is generating 6 figures in revenue, you would think that there is some return for the so called investor.... I buy info to make money, not to buy into a false dream about making money. The get rich from investing in Dinar story has been around for a lot of years and to date, the ONLY people making ANY money from perpetuating this CRAP, are the sellers. Is it a scam?...perhaps you should ask people who make a serious living trading foreign currencies....It's not like Dinar Vets knows something that the large currency trading institutions don't know....Kinda makes you go Hmmmmmmmm!!!

Sort of....it's not that the Dinar won't RV, it is HOW it will RV and when..first - keep in mind this is only my opinion and second, due to the political instability in IRAQ and IRAN, I don't think any of this will happen anytime soon. Iraq has much more on their immediate platter than currency issues. However, when a government actually gets established and gets around to setting and implementing monetary policy, they will have to take some big steps backwards in order to advance with the rest of the world in the foreign exchanges. First they have to get rid of most of the dinar currently in circulation and they have to create smaller denominations. There are always fluctuations as you show in the post above, but the basic formulas are still fundamental. When they drop their circulation down to 500 billion to 1trillion dinar on the very high side, then the dinar will have the ability to advance in typical demand driven cycles. Markets will be made and investors are more likely to invest...also of important note - YOU WILL NEVER see global trading in paper money....this is a big red flag!!!! The RV will probably NOT be on par to the US dollar or Euro, or anywhere close for that matter, and the big notes that folks are counting on cashing in for big US Dollar jackpots is a scenario that is somewhere between highly unlikely and damn near impossible. A country doesn't just randomly or arbitrarily declare an RV equal to another currency...The RV in actuality will be a paper and math shuffle to get the currency in line with the rest of the economy....It will Not create any sudden wealth for Iraq or investors of Dinar....Of course I type this and will be cast a naysayer, but the typical "get rich" scenario with Dinar is fast, furious and fun, but in the end, it is just hype....there is no REAL basis for the common forum scenario to come to fruition. Wishing you well and many riches in all your endeavors.

@moneydude..Bingo.... In perspective - when you hear of a freeze in CA or FL, the prices of oranges go up. Too many houses foreclosed on in the US, prices go down Print too much money and the value of the currency goes down. Money in circulation should always be a fraction of the total GDP of the country...I believe the US has near a $15trillion GDP with a couple trillion in circulation....why? Because otherwise the dollar would be valueless. I am oversimplifying... It is always about supply and demand....demand moves prices on EVERYTHING including currencies. Herein lies the MONSTER in the Forum...problem with the DINAR....you have a country with a GDP of less than $200 billion and (im estimating) 20-30 trillion dinar in circulation....This creates an IMPOSSIBLE MATH FORMULA.....no demand for dinar can possibly be big enough to create a demand that will increase the value of the dinar....there is TOO MUCH in circulation... If the Dinar RVd on par with the dollar (which is a mathematical impossibility) then the Iraqi would suddenly have more monetary value than the entire US treasury....simply put and most obvious - IT JUST DOESN'T WORK THIS WAY...ANYTIME/ANYWHERE. I am not expressing an opinion here....there just is NO REAL Math to support such a thing...Not to mention there isn't even a real market for dinar...why? Too much supply and virtually NO DEMAND....at least for the time being....it can get better... The good news is this can be rectified...How? You slash liquidity, and you redenom the currency. I believe the smaller denoms are ready to go or will be soon, and now all you need is a written monetary policy to slash liquidity. I am not writing anything earth shattering...this is exactly what the Iraqis or any other government would do...the key is they have to get a government going to implement new monetary policy...This feat alone could take some time.... Why this must happen....until GDP and liquidity are set in a more balanced ratio, the Dinar can NEVER RV or at least not the way it is spelled out on this forum....Iraq or any country cannot arbitrarily RV their currency at a value 10-100-1000 times current value....if this was possible, the day Iraq RV's, so would every other currency and then NOTHING CHANGES anyway....Get it? Why will Iraq eventually slash liquidity and redenom to small bills....to establish a trading balance that will eventually allow the Dinar to rise and fall with NORMAL market forces...supply and demand.....as soon as this all happens, and it should take some time, perhaps even a few years, then you will see the Dinar trading on all the foreign exchanges and you will see the price rise and fall on a daily basis relative to all other global currencies....This is how trillions get traded everyday all over the world...Not really news or anything earth shattering...The road for the Dinar is a long one, but someday, they will hopefully be prosperous.

sorry for the double post - i screwed up the edit

An RV of some kind is bound to happen eventually...few things will have to happen first.... Iraq will need some sort of government to control, execute and find the happy balance between their fiscal and monetary policies. They will need enough security to maintain stability in the oil fields, they will need to establish a balance of peace between the sunnis and shiites...(Since our troops are handing over security, you can expect to see Iran test us by increasing insurgent activity in the coming months-yes months) and they will once again need to revamp their currency. There is absolutely no possibility of the currency RVing with the current big notes and multi trillions of Dinar still in circulation...There is much more to accomplish before they get around to an RV, but these are a few on the mandatory highlights. I don't think quitting your day job should be in your immediate plans.

You have P-L-E-N-T-Y of time....if you are looking to hide or shelter money, you might investigate a two-three year old shelf corp instead of trying to form a new corp that has no earnings history...just a thought!!!

This should prove to be a very interesting test indeed. Would love to know what Iran has up their sleeves....stay tuned!!!

NOT EVEN CLOSE!!! Start a 52 Monday calendar and I bet you get through all 52 Mondays