Dinar Rumor Letter from Asian investor re: Asian currency trader

[brokendiver5]

Dear xxxxx xxxxx,

I was the one who posted the Asia intel a few days ago. My intention was just to let the KTFM folks know about this. I didn’t expect it to spread to the other forums as I posted quite late at night. It attracted a lot of attention which I’m not sure that I like. My intention was not to pump but for those people like me who has been on this for quite some time, and wants to know when it’ll finally end. So decided to drop you this email to answer some of the queries and explain how the dinar dealers think.

I spoke to the supplier again yesterday with regards to some of the queries, comments and criticisms in the forums. I can verify that the intel is true as the supply source in Middle East refuse to ship out anymore dinars . What I know is that the local supplier has limited stock left just to help anyone who wants to buy dinars. I had different friends check on him and he said the same thing. Unlike Ali ..lol. He has purchased his own dinars which is a lot and as a dealer, his business is to buy and sell currencies. As to why they don’t keep it for themselves, the truth is like all investors, they will assess the risk and they will invest according to what they think is worth the risk. Anything more would deviate from their own investment plan which is not good discipline. It seems that Ali don’t talk about this ever, but all my money changer friends stick to a very strict currency investment plan. Hope this helps those who wonder why currency dealers don’t just hoard all the dinars for themselves. It’s bad luck for their business as money is meant to flow and not stored up like the Dead Sea.

In the past, this supplier always talk to me about how important the date of the elections were. But because I was hoping it’ll happen sooner so I ignored those comments. On hindsight, I realized that he has been hinting me the importance of the elections. He is also quite tired of this ride as he has also been ridiculed by a lot of money changers for doing this. It’s a scam all his competitors say and that once it is exposed, he will be finished here. And also he wants this ride to end as every time he ships the dinars to Asia, he’s afraid that it’ll RV and he is caught unaware. It’s a complicated situation and as a businessman, integrity is paramount. IF it RVs and the dinar is still being shipped, who does it belong? The source, the courier, the local dealer or the purchaser? Very complicated. So best is to avoid such situations.

Basically, the situation, as far as the dealers are concerned, is that there is a strong deadline for RV that will expire on 1st March 2010. After which, elections will begin. If Iraq don’t make it by then, it will be after the elections, which is not a good prospect as you won’t know who is in power and whether there’ll be squabbles between different tribal factions that will delay it further. Right now, power is situated in a few people and this will make it more easy to RV.

The ‘foot on the ground’ intel that there may not be salaries decrease or they didn’t hear of impending RV are NOT INACCURATE but it doesn’t necessary paint the full picture as some critical information have been purposely been omitted from any public announcement. Just like when Kuwait RVed quietly, so will this be. (In fact, I think most RV has been quiet except this one which is getting too much attention on the internet . China RVed despite releasing a conflicting media statement that their RMB won’t RV a few days before) The Iraqi people can only make educated guesses based on carefully released public info. Imagine if the govt drop strong hints for it to RV, then it doesn’t happen, which is a possibility, you will get a very unhappy voters which surely means that Maliki is out, despite leading in the polls now. So if they drop enough hints to suggest that it may happen soon, the Iraqi voters will vote for the incumbents. And at the same time the government also issues a lot of confusing statements on the RV so that the Iraqis will not be too hopeful that it MUST happen this weekend. In this way, people will neither be too bullish nor too bearish. You were a stockbroker so you should know what this means. My guess is that whoever is in the know, is trying their level best to make it happen by 1st March. But there is a chance that they will not make it too. Hence, the mixed messages on RV so that in case they missed this date, they will not be slaughtered in the elections.

So if it doesn’t RV this weekend, the Dinar supply will start again. BUT only so much of the new notes have been printed. At some point of time, these ‘000 notes will run out. The supplier didn’t say that is the case now but it’s not too far away. If it doesn’t RV before elections, it means that the next window opportunity will really be uncertain. As mentioned, currently only a few key Iraqi leaders are involved in the RV. After the elections, they’ll take a few months to form a government. Then the elected parliament which involve different tribal factions will need to come to an agreement of date and rate for the RV. Historically, it is difficult for all these different tribal leaders to agree on anything. This can be clearly seen in the past few months when they took such a long time to agree on the Election Law, and refusal of ex-Bathist candidates to run for elections. Saddam was the Supreme Iraqi leader because he was strong enough to keep all the tribes under him. Without a strong leader, the squabble of the tribal leaders can go on and on. You must understand that it is not their custom to look for a win-win situation in disagreement. So we may have to wait very very long before they agree on the rate and date for RV.

So for those who wants to buy more dinars thinking that it may RV this weekend, I want to say that your risk is that if it doesn’t happen this weekend, then you have to wait for a long time. Invest only what you can afford and don’t need for daily living. Otherwise, be content with what you have.

Edited February 25, 2010 by Sunglass

[johnjohn]

in the case of a lop what happens to my 250 ird notes?

[DINARMONSTER]

or my 50 dinar note

[NotReallyTex]

I thought this was interesting because it does bring up some good points. If it was going to RV ASAP then the people scrambling to buy now could be left out. What if you paid for it but it RV's before you actually received it? You could be left in the cold.

In the past, this supplier always talk to me about how important the date of the elections were. But because I was hoping it’ll happen sooner so I ignored those comments. On hindsight, I realized that he has been hinting me the importance of the elections. He is also quite tired of this ride as he has also been ridiculed by a lot of money changers for doing this. It’s a scam all his competitors say and that once it is exposed, he will be finished here. And also he wants this ride to end as every time he ships the dinars to Asia, he’s afraid that it’ll RV and he is caught unaware. It’s a complicated situation and as a businessman, integrity is paramount. IF it RVs and the dinar is still being shipped, who does it belong? The source, the courier, the local dealer or the purchaser? Very complicated. So best is to avoid such situations.

[SexyDinar]

So this means if the RV doesn't happen on or around the 1st March then we could be waiting possibly years for this to happen!

Oh well, I knew it was a gamble and to be fair have lost all faith in this Iraq government actually doing anything. In my mind I think this Dinar hype was just to get foreign investors hooked line and sinker on this roller coaster.

I don't believe the Iraq government have ever had an RV in mind at all.

[NotReallyTex]

or my 50 dinar note

You would owe them money.......LOL

[ghaggerty]

Something has to change with the dinar, I'm not going to speculate as to what, but we are not the only people holding dinar and I find it hard to believe that a country struggling to become a part legitimate on the world stage would think it wise to bend over all the people/countries that have "invested" if you will in their currency.

[Jmoney]

Something has to change with the dinar, I'm not going to speculate as to what, but we are not the only people holding dinar and I find it hard to believe that a country struggling to become a part legitimate on the world stage would think it wise to bend over all the people/countries that have "invested" if you will in their currency.

I hope they use this logic...

[skelly]

i'm on your team sexydinar

[Jewel]

Folks we cant let cynicism get in the way of something you once believed in simply becuase things get rough or that our financial circumstances demand an immediate revalue. Simple common sense says that this country HAS TO RV at some point simply to trade with the world and allow that same common sense to view the natural resources and you then decide what will enventually happen. Because you may have lost faith inthis happening right now it may be best for you to keep those thoughts to yourself instead of being like the "bully kid" at the party popping all the other kids balloons. I hope for your own sake that you either dont visit the dinar sites to frustrate yourself and others or simply wait it out and have a friend call you when it does happen. Looking forward to seeing a smile on your faces when this rv's. Jewel

[JOHNJOHNNY]

it'll be when it is

[JOHNJOHNNY]

then the weekend it is

[lsvet]

Give those Dinar to me, I will take the risk for you!

[bahtman]

I was hoping that it would RV before the election, but time is getting late. There are many things to worry about for the election.

There will be a no fly zone. Security forces will be everywhere protecting against bombs and terrorist activity to disrupt the election.

It seems unlikely that they would want to add the chaos of an RV to this delicate situation.

If it doesn't RV this weekend or sooner, it probably will not happen until weeks after the election, maybe months, out to June 1st.

So let's hope for the RV in the next 72 hours.

[JOHNJOHNNY]

I was hoping that it would RV before the election, but time is getting late. There are many things to worry about for the election.

There will be a no fly zone. Security forces will be everywhere protecting against bombs and terrorist activity to disrupt the election.

It seems unlikely that they would want to add the chaos of an RV to this delicate situation.

If it doesn't RV this weekend or sooner, it probably will not happen until weeks after the election, maybe months, out to June 1st.

So let's hope for the RV in the next 72 hours.

I'm with that for this weekend

[ou812]

or my 50 dinar note

Simple math, move the decimal point 3 places to the left. Your 250 note becomes worth .25 and the 50 note becomes worth .05...a quarter and a nickel respectively.

[imjustme0502]

The reason I believe it is going to happen before March 1st is because of the salaries that were cut. They will get paid pennies if the rate does not go up before next week. I base this on what Frank26 has written.

Frank26 opinion:

I believe it was around September or October Family that I told you our team was reporting a reduction in governmental employee’s salaries in Iraq. Tap into your memory and try to remember me saying that their salaries would be cut in half………..50%. Then I followed up in the next sentence by saying that this 50% will also see a cut in half. Finally I said …….that this remaining 25% would also REQUIRE a final cut in half. Once we reached that status……..the odds were in our favor that salaries were being positioned for an RI value. Our team……….. and I believe some articles are showing salaries being reduced from 1 million IQD’s to 1 thousand IQD’s as of last week. Kind of reminds me of banks lowering their interest rates in the last few weeks. With the IQD value going up banks have to adjust the interest rates that they reward you with……..in this case they must be reduced or you would be getting more than you deserved. Same thing with salaries. I told you about this slow adjustment many months ago and IMO ……….this is the final salary adjustment required for a reinstatement of the IQD’s true value. This reduction from 1 mil to 1 thousand dinars will go into effect anytime between now and no later than March 1st.

[krucialmix]

I was hoping that it would RV before the election, but time is getting late. There are many things to worry about for the election.

There will be a no fly zone. Security forces will be everywhere protecting against bombs and terrorist activity to disrupt the election.

It seems unlikely that they would want to add the chaos of an RV to this delicate situation.

If it doesn't RV this weekend or sooner, it probably will not happen until weeks after the election, maybe months, out to June 1st.

So let's hope for the RV in the next 72 hours.

Well, OK..BUT--what better time to do the RV with all this extra security going on. Why pay for it twice? There's gonna be a whole-lotta-banking going on that day and a lot of rich folks walking around. I think it kinda makes sense.

[klb101]

Simple math, move the decimal point 3 places to the left. Your 250 note becomes worth .25 and the 50 note becomes worth .05...a quarter and a nickel respectively.

It seems most people think if they have dinar notes with less than three zeros on them they would not be lopped.

[john1025]

People, Pleople, as with any investment there is a chance to lose. In this case the worse that can happen is you break even minus a service fee. It's the cost of doing business. If the RV doesn't happen and I'm on record as saying it will not happen on March 1st but closer to the end of the year and then it will be RD/RV at the same time. We still break even. This is not a bad thing. It is my belief that the currency will then be allowed to float on the open market and may gain value up in the 2.00 range. We will make a modest profit. There are so many investments you can make and lose everything. This one at least is giving you the chance to make a modest profit without any risk. Be glad not sad. What is my intellegence you ask? None but my own experience of 23 years of FX trading.

[bootsintaji]

The reason I believe it is going to happen before March 1st is because of the salaries that were cut. They will get paid pennies if the rate does not go up before next week. I base this on what Frank26 has written.

Frank26 opinion:

I believe it was around September or October Family that I told you our team was reporting a reduction in governmental employee’s salaries in Iraq. Tap into your memory and try to remember me saying that their salaries would be cut in half………..50%. Then I followed up in the next sentence by saying that this 50% will also see a cut in half. Finally I said …….that this remaining 25% would also REQUIRE a final cut in half. Once we reached that status……..the odds were in our favor that salaries were being positioned for an RI value. Our team……….. and I believe some articles are showing salaries being reduced from 1 million IQD’s to 1 thousand IQD’s as of last week. Kind of reminds me of banks lowering their interest rates in the last few weeks. With the IQD value going up banks have to adjust the interest rates that they reward you with……..in this case they must be reduced or you would be getting more than you deserved. Same thing with salaries. I told you about this slow adjustment many months ago and IMO ……….this is the final salary adjustment required for a reinstatement of the IQD’s true value. This reduction from 1 mil to 1 thousand dinars will go into effect anytime between now and no later than March 1st.

No Iraqis know anything about a pay cut. I dont think there will be a pay cut, or they would know about it by now. I stopped asking Iraqis because i dont want to get them confused.

[Patriot1]

Thanks B. I'm beginning to think that Frank26 is the one that is confused. I don't recall anything that he has prognosticated coming to fruition. For that matter, all of the self-proclaimed 'dinar gurus' are batting 0.00 when it comes to predicting a possible rv. I would certainly like to see one of them nail it on the head. JMO, but I'm following Enorrste's premises because thay are the most logical and fact based that I've seen in my 6+ years speculating the IQD.

No Iraqis know anything about a pay cut. I dont think there will be a pay cut, or they would know about it by now. I stopped asking Iraqis because i dont want to get them confused.

[CaptainJack]

Bahtman .... I agree 100%. I'm still of the belief, WHO gets elected and how the country and it's factions REACT will determine WHEN the RV happens. Surely, the US, China, Russia, GB and other countries allegedly heavily invested in the dinar, along with the UN, UNSC and IMF have their own preferences as to who will be elected. Therefore, if the "right" person gets elected, we can only hope and prayer there isn't too much revolt and violence, so the country can keep moving forward both socially and economically.

[DmsC]

Bahtman .... I agree 100%. I'm still of the belief, WHO gets elected and how the country and it's factions REACT will determine WHEN the RV happens. Surely, the US, China, Russia, GB and other countries allegedly heavily invested in the dinar, along with the UN, UNSC and IMF have their own preferences as to who will be elected. Therefore, if the "right" person gets elected, we can only hope and prayer there isn't too much revolt and violence, so the country can keep moving forward both socially and economically.

That is assuming the the votes that are "cast" are the ones that are counted. Seems to me that the money will make sure whom ever is the right one for them will win the election

[pbbcolo]

then the weekend it is

I don't think there's any way this happens before the elections so dont hold your breath! There's much bigger fish to fry in Iraq right now!