CBI or HCL

[HawaiianGal]

I'm a little confused, and I read a lot in these forums and through the news agencies.

I'm hearing that Shabibi can pull the trigger, or push the button on the RV/RD at any time now (due to a meeting on August 14, or 15th potentially.) I hear that he has the power to do this. I also remember hearing and reading multiple times here that this can't happen until Erbil is signed, HCL is passed, and Iraq is out of chapter 7, then there is the seating of the ministers for a full GOI.

So, which is it? Does anyone really know?

[Francie26]

I'm a little confused, and I read a lot in these forums and through the news agencies.

I'm hearing that Shabibi can pull the trigger, or push the button on the RV/RD at any time now (due to a meeting on August 14, or 15th potentially.) I hear that he has the power to do this. I also remember hearing and reading multiple times here that this can't happen until Erbil is signed, HCL is passed, and Iraq is out of chapter 7, then there is the seating of the ministers for a full GOI.

So, which is it? Does anyone really know?

Not me. I don't know. I just keep believing whatever is being said at the time. I tell myself that this keeps me flexible, but the reality is that it just keeps me in the dark. But since Shabibi is keeping us in the dark anyway, oh, well . . . I'll just go with the flow, I suppose, until it's over, which I hope and pray is any day now. So I guess I'm flexible anyway. lol

(But I don't think I'll feel quite so flexible if the dinar tanks).

[TonyDownTheShore]

I'm a little confused, and I read a lot in these forums and through the news agencies.

I'm hearing that Shabibi can pull the trigger, or push the button on the RV/RD at any time now (due to a meeting on August 14, or 15th potentially.) I hear that he has the power to do this. I also remember hearing and reading multiple times here that this can't happen until Erbil is signed, HCL is passed, and Iraq is out of chapter 7, then there is the seating of the ministers for a full GOI.

So, which is it? Does anyone really know?

According to Adam we need, HCL, CHAPTER 7 and ERBIL AGREEMENT, GOI is not a hold up anymore, because they have temps to fill the seats

[Atheist]

My understanding is that Shabbibi would prefer the HCL, Chapter 7, and the GOI seated before the rv took place, but he does have the power to rv on his own. What he does not have the power to do is print the lower denoms as that must be approved by parliament. His main concern is inflation so as it creeps higher he may take things into his own hands and force the issue.

[tampabay6]

I'm a little confused, and I read a lot in these forums and through the news agencies.

I'm hearing that Shabibi can pull the trigger, or push the button on the RV/RD at any time now (due to a meeting on August 14, or 15th potentially.) I hear that he has the power to do this. I also remember hearing and reading multiple times here that this can't happen until Erbil is signed, HCL is passed, and Iraq is out of chapter 7, then there is the seating of the ministers for a full GOI.

So, which is it? Does anyone really know?

The law concerning the CBI says that the CBI is independent of the government of Iraq, but that they should give a proposal to the parliament before making policy changes, allow 30 days for parliament to consider, and take seriously any comments that they get from the parliament. However if in the opinion of the CBI, notifying the parliament and then waiting the 30 days on a particular policy change would create an emergency, they have power to make any monetary policy that they believe is absolutely necessary - in other words they don't have to get permission for anything but they should give courtesy unless they think it's an emergency. If they told parliament that they were going to RV, the word WOULD leak out. How do you tell anything to 200+ people and expect it not to reach the public?

Shabibi is one of the world's smartest economists. He may not be bound by the government of Iraq, but he knows that he must deal with the laws of economics - just like the laws of physics, you can break them but you had better be prepared to deal with the consequences. The CBI is privately owned; he does have bosses - just not Maliki, or Allawi, or others in the GOI - to which he must answer.

So, he can RV whenever he and the people who own the CBI decide to - but he knows if they do so at the wrong time or in the wrong way, chaos might ensue - and even the mighty Rothschilds, with all of their great wealth - have some limit to their ability to exert control over millions of pissed-off people.

The Erbil, HCL, Chapter 7, are all things that may not absolutely constrain Shabibi and the CBI owners from RVing - but logic tells us that they might be very wise to wait for these things to RV, and they probably will.

Hope that helps.

[usndiver]

Excellent analysis tampabay.

[RVDinar4MyFamily]

The law concerning the CBI says that the CBI is independent of the government of Iraq, but that they should give a proposal to the parliament before making policy changes, allow 30 days for parliament to consider, and take seriously any comments that they get from the parliament. However if in the opinion of the CBI, notifying the parliament and then waiting the 30 days on a particular policy change would create an emergency, they have power to make any monetary policy that they believe is absolutely necessary - in other words they don't have to get permission for anything but they should give courtesy unless they think it's an emergency. If they told parliament that they were going to RV, the word WOULD leak out. How do you tell anything to 200+ people and expect it not to reach the public?

Shabibi is one of the world's smartest economists. He may not be bound by the government of Iraq, but he knows that he must deal with the laws of economics - just like the laws of physics, you can break them but you had better be prepared to deal with the consequences. The CBI is privately owned; he does have bosses - just not Maliki, or Allawi, or others in the GOI - to which he must answer.

So, he can RV whenever he and the people who own the CBI decide to - but he knows if they do so at the wrong time or in the wrong way, chaos might ensue - and even the mighty Rothschilds, with all of their great wealth - have some limit to their ability to exert control over millions of pissed-off people.

The Erbil, HCL, Chapter 7, are all things that may not absolutely constrain Shabibi and the CBI owners from RVing - but logic tells us that they might be very wise to wait for these things to RV, and they probably will.

Hope that helps.

Excellent analysis tampabay.

I agree

Absolutely brilliant Tampabay6, very well explained, could not agree more with your assessment.

You should repost this in its own thread for more to see. JMO

[countryroads]

Shabibi is very intelligent he knows full well who he is dealing with when it comes to the GOI. He knows that once the money has been turned loose that the government is going to be the first to get their hands on it. Knowing this he is going to put as many safeguards and checks and balances on the money as he can.

If he didn't , the people of Iraq as well as investors like us would only get what the GOI wanted us to have. Just like Saddam Hussein.