How close are we really?

[WorkerBee]

While I hope like the rest of you Iraq decides to straight up RV, I still believe there is a possiblilty of a redenomination then RV due to the news articles coming out of Iraq. That being said, I would like to address the recent good news we have been reading about, such as the third reading of the HCL, and chapterVII sanctions that have been lifted, not all but enough to allow Iraq freedom to do what they want with their monetary policy. Or so we're told. Even the most conservative "gurus" (hate that term) are saying this news implies that an RV/RD is close at hand.

So, I went online to research other countries who redenominated their currency. I only looked at three, Venezuela, Ghana, and Bolivia. Each of these countries had a massive ad campaign, radio, tv, newspaper, fliers and (more recent) internet to educate the citizens about converting old currency to new. Each of these campaigns lasted from 6 months to a year before the actual date of conversion.

Since Iraq has not started any such type campaign, that either means no redenomination and this will RV (yea!) or we are further out than we think we are. I'm not the sharpest tool in the shed on this subject so I would really value getting other opinions as to what all these recent developments may mean. I realize no one knows for sure.

[cottn68]

My opinion is that any type of media campaign besides a bullhorn would do little good in Iraq considering the percentage of population that is illiterate, and the limited number of hours that most actually have working electricity. Not saying your research is irrelevent, but Iraq is a whoooooooole different beast altogether. Personally, I am leaning more towards the whole 1:1 pop theory, since IMO this would cause the least confusion to the masses of poor and uneducated.

[WorkerBee]

Seriously? Two of the countries I mentioned were Bolivia and Ghana. Up through the mid 80's Iraq a top rate educational system, but I agree that was over 20 years ago.

[cottn68]

Yes seriously! And thank you for pointing out the OBVIOUS FLAW in my opinion...ego trip MUCH??

[TFK]

I would really value getting other opinions as to what all these recent developments may mean. I realize no one knows for sure.

Me thinks you think to much.

That is my opinion that you asked for!

[Dalite]

Worker Bee,

I believe, when all is said and done, the mention of Delete 3 zeros in articles, and the percentage of completion of Delete 3 zeros referred to the plan that was recently submitted to Maliki.

If you haven't seen the Venezuela plan, I can reply with a link.

The plan must be very detailed, and outline all the changes and correlations involved in a RD, The Venezuela plan serves as a good example of the complexities that need to be worked out in advance, and a timeline for execution that is realistic.

Shabibi and Saleh have been quoted giving a six month to one year duration.

Maliki has to accept the plan, and introduce it to Parliament. It has to be read three times before a decision can be made. Perhaps some of this is ongoing.

Ramadan is an excellent time for the Iraqis to be made aware of the change in currency, and start the education process of what they can expect. Education levels there are quite low, as a large percentage are under 30 Yeats old, and twenty of those may have been close to living hand to mouth due to the invasion...

Once the new currency starts being spent/loaned into the economy, the clock will start ticking. I would look for six months to a year to complete the process before declaring the currency we hold to be worthless.

There are other options.. Shabibi can let the 1170 Program Rate appreciate to 1000:1 prior to releasing the new currency, or could have a concurrent RD/RV and kick in the extra $.14 to make a Dinar worth a Dollar.

There could be Droxs' Plan B, where a 100,000 dinar note is introduced (and possibly a 50,000 one also) and merely kick the can down the road.

There could be a gathering of reserves to support a small RV under $.10.

Shabibi could decide to let it RV or RI to the magic $3.22 figure, and not stay around to suffer the consequences.

I think we are going to find out which choice was made by the end of the year, but this is all speculation on my part, based on where my research has taken me.

There may be that one missing tidbit of information, released at any time, that will provide clarity.

In the meantime, we wait.....

[HopefulTxn]

My opinion is that any type of media campaign besides a bullhorn would do little good in Iraq considering the percentage of population that is illiterate, and the limited number of hours that most actually have working electricity. Not saying your research is irrelevent, but Iraq is a whoooooooole different beast altogether. Personally, I am leaning more towards the whole 1:1 pop theory, since IMO this would cause the least confusion to the masses of poor and uneducated.

Given that the illiteracy rate among Iraqi men seems to be around 10-11% and closer to 25% for women, there would still be plenty of means for educating the masses through written and electronic education campaigns. For those without the ability to read such information for themselves, mosques would probably be utilized.

They seemed to have had a pretty good system that worked in late 2003 that educated the people on the difference in currency values between the Saddam notes and the Swiss dinar. So they do have some fairly recent experience to draw upon for the next exchange - whichever way they do it.

[WorkerBee]

Yes seriously! And thank you for pointing out the OBVIOUS FLAW in my opinion...ego trip MUCH??

[/quote

Sorry, poor choice of words. And no I don't have an over inflated ego, otherwise I'd be QUEENBEE!

Ps: It wasn't me who gave you the neg. Peace.

[cisole]

Sorry, poor choice of words. And no I don't have an over inflated ego, otherwise I'd be QUEENBEE!

Ps: It wasn't me who gave you the neg. Peace.

[cottn68]

Given that the illiteracy rate among Iraqi men seems to be around 10-11% and closer to 25% for women, there would still be plenty of means for educating the masses through written and electronic education campaigns. For those without the ability to read such information for themselves, mosques would probably be utilized.

They seemed to have had a pretty good system that worked in late 2003 that educated the people on the difference in currency values between the Saddam notes and the Swiss dinar. So they do have some fairly recent experience to draw upon for the next exchange - whichever way they do it.

Granted HopefulTxn, but please account THAT was in '03....EIGHT, almost "9" years have passed, by OUR time...

just sayin...I'm NOT boots on ground anymore, but when was the last time YOU suffered true opression?

Those figures are probobly true enough, by conventional standards.

But IMexperience, mosques were NOT for reading...learning....

[HopefulTxn]

Granted HopefulTxn, but please account THAT was in '03....EIGHT, almost "9" years have passed, by OUR time...

just sayin...I'm NOT boots on ground anymore, but when was the last time YOU suffered true opression?

Those figures are probobly true enough, by conventional standards.

But IMexperience, mosques were NOT for reading...learning....

Didn't mean to insinuate that the mosques would be used as a school or learning institution, but simply a location where people congregate that people can be informed in large groups of changes to the currency. It's not going to be that big of a deal, either the value of their currency goes up, or they have to learn that their currency will be exchanged at 1,000 current dinar for 1 new dinar that will buy the same that the 1,000 dinar did.

[2fast4u2c]

I am still on the part where Workerbee asked for other opinions and then when Cottn gave their's Workerbee shut em down....lol