My Prediction

[WesParsons]

No I'm not a researcher, nope, not a guru either but I've read what's been posted all over and have formed my opinion. It's worth nothing so it's offered here for free, lol.

In my opinion, this is what I think is going to happen

- The CBI will introduce new lower denominations

- The CBI will remove the three 0 currency from circulation and replace them with their new lower denomination counterparts (the 25 dinar will replace the 25,000 dinar)

- The currency will revalue to approx 3.45 USD

My gut says this makes sense...I'm not going to become a millionaire from this but I also wont loose money...

Each Million of Dinar owned would return at a value of $3,450.00 USD minus the approx $1,100.00 initial purchase price returns a profit of approx $2,300.00 or a ROI profit rate of 213% and you can't complain about that.....though I'm sure many of you on here will, lol bring on the negs, I know how most folks won't listen unless a person is saying 'you're a millionaire today is the day...." we can't all be okie's...

So this is my official prediction and I guess we'll soon see if I'm right or not.

[umbertino]

It is certainly a possibility.... I do not like it though.... But if it turns out to be that way I'll have to face it and deal with it.

Edited June 23, 2011 by umbertino

[Blyane]

Time will tell.

[Upgradable]

Wes, thanks for sharing your beliefs on the outcome of this. That's what this forum is about!

Go RV!!!

[cooked]

That scenerio would not leave iraq with enough tangible currency. Thier market capitalization would be too weak. jmo

[robo5288]

Without question, your prediction has potential. We all hope that is not the case. But, who knows? Obviously the annual rate of return is not the same for someone who has had dinar for 8 weeks, when you compare that with someone who has owned dinar for 8 years. But, let's hope for the best and see what comes of this.

[bobbidoll]

Could be the way it goes. Profit is profit right?

[matt77]

It's possible but I don't think it's going to go down like that. From the sound of it we will all find out soon enough.

[hoopdog]

No I'm not a researcher, nope, not a guru either but I've read what's been posted all over and have formed my opinion. It's worth nothing so it's offered here for free, lol.

In my opinion, this is what I think is going to happen

- The CBI will introduce new lower denominations

- The CBI will remove the three 0 currency from circulation and replace them with their new lower denomination counterparts (the 25 dinar will replace the 25,000 dinar)

- The currency will revalue to approx 3.45 USD

My gut says this makes sense...I'm not going to become a millionaire from this but I also wont loose money...

Each Million of Dinar owned would return at a value of $3,450.00 USD minus the approx $1,100.00 initial purchase price returns a profit of approx $2,300.00 or a ROI profit rate of 213% and you can't complain about that.....though I'm sure many of you on here will, lol bring on the negs, I know how most folks won't listen unless a person is saying 'you're a millionaire today is the day...." we can't all be okie's...

So this is my official prediction and I guess we'll soon see if I'm right or not.

OR.......how about when turning in your 25K notes, you receive 25K worth of new notes and turn those in for the $3.45?

[WesParsons]

That would be amazing but there's no indication that is what they are planning. I would love that. man o man would that be awesome...

again, my prediction is based on gut instinct as well and I can't seem to find anything logical that says they're going to do what you propose, I'm sure if they were it would be all over the boards.

[teresa43]

sounds good to me but M.O.P saying its 1.134 read the bottom of article

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Home The Ministry In Brief Capital Budget & Public Contracts Planning Budget The Exchange Rate of Foreign Currency in Economic Feasibility Studies

The Exchange Rate of Foreign Currency in Economic Feasibility Studies

Below are the central controls related to the exchange rate of the foreign currency to convert the project inputs and outputs from foreign currency to its equivalent in the local currency, and that is by calculating the net discounted present value standard and the internal return on investments in economic analysis that governs investment projects that costs excess one million dinars.

Estimate the shadow price of foreign currency:

1. It is necessary to put central controls to amend the official exchange rate * to reflect the shadow price of the foreign currency, and that is considered one of the necessary requirements to implement the net discounted present value standard and the internal return rate on investment in the economic calculation stated in the instructions, paragraph nine.

The central controls for adjusting market prices distinguished a group of outputs and inputs traded internationally, where the projects production or usage of them is reflected on the abundance of foreign currency in the economy and thus project outputs or inputs used of such are considered purely foreign currency outputs or inputs.

* What is meant by exchange rate: the number of units of foreign currency, expressed in dollar per one dinar.

In particular the following outputs and inputs of foreign currency were distinguished:

· Export-outputs.

· Outputs marketed locally that substitute imports.

· Imported inputs.

· Inputs produced locally that usually go to exports.

· Foreign labor.

According to the pricing rules the value of the output and input (traded) is calculated using export prices (FOB) and import prices (CIF), according to what is listed in the pricing rules.

In other words the pricing rules calculate what the project produces from foreign currency (quantity of exports multiplied by the export price (FOB) in foreign currency or the quantity of substitute imports multiplied by the import price (CIF) in foreign currency, as well as what the project uses from foreign currency and imported inputs multiplied by the import price (CIF) in foreign currency .... etc.).

In a later step, project outputs and inputs must be converted from the foreign currency to its equivalent in local currency (dinars) by using a specific exchange rate for the foreign currency.

2. Justifications for exchange-rate adjustment: there are a number of important and powerful arguments which support the view that the official exchange rate reduces the real value of foreign currency for purposes of calculating the economic national profitability for investment projects and hence for the purposes of investment planning. It is demonstrated in this context to call for assessing the dinar for less than (3.208) dollar (official exchange rate) when assessing project outputs and inputs of traded goods of exports, substitute imports and imports... etc.

The justifications to call for the use of an exchange rate that is lower than the official exchange rate are:

· The use of an exchange rate that is lower than the official rate is the appropriate action at the investment planning level to translate the country’s economic strategy aiming at stimulating central investments in the sectors that encourage the development of non-oil exports, as well as sectors that encourage the expansion of domestic production base in order to reduce imports and compensate it with local commodities. This helps to reduce reliance on foreign exchange earnings from crude oil exports and increases the share of non-oil sectors in the local production.

· The application of the amended exchange rate on project imported inputs will assist in directing investments away from aggregated sectors dependent on imported inputs and the preference of those sectors that rely on locally produced inputs.

· The use of the amended exchange rate helps to correct the balance in favor of the traded goods sectors compared to non-traded goods.

· The real exchange rate has declined rapidly since the early seventies, through rapid rise of the level of prices and local costs which led by the steadiness of the official exchange rate to change in prices and actual local rate costs that gave an advantage for imported goods at the expense of locally produced goods, meaning that it led to deterioration of the competitiveness of alternative replacement goods and export commodities.

· This action shows that the official exchange rate overestimates the value of the dinar, compared to the foreign currency and from the promoting goods substituting imports and export commodities point of view of.

And in support to this view is the state’s utilization and in a broad approach to the customs and quantitative protection policies especially for consumer goods, as well as export subsidies that exports have through an amended export exchange rate.

3. Estimate the amended exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar to be used in technical and economical feasibility studies and for (1.134) dollar per dinar. This price should be approved for 3 years until re-appreciation by the competent authorities

[pro1]

so Teresa your opinion is that its a break even investment if you choose to cash in now. I believe its a long term hold as the $3 value could come in a few years after the currency floats against the rest of the world.

Teresa I meant that in the form of a question. sorry didnt mean to make it sound like I put words in your mouth.