Will Al-Sistani intervene in the crisis between Al-Sadr and the coordination framework? An Iraqi researcher answers

[yota691]

Will Al-Sistani intervene in the crisis between Al-Sadr and the coordination framework? An Iraqi researcher answers

08.12.2022 - 17:46

 

Baghdad - people  

The Iraqi researcher residing in America Harith Hassan believes that one of the basic questions raised by the current political crisis in Iraq is whether the supreme religious authority in Najaf, represented by Sayyid Ali al-Sistani, will intervene or not? It attempts to answer this question through an analytical article.  

  

  

  

Hassan added in his article (August 12, 2022) on the EPC website, followed by "Nass", that the calls for Al-Sistani's intervention have been repeated in the past period, and they were explained by Hadi Al-Amiri, the leader of the "Al-Fateh" coalition and a leader in the "coordinating framework." But they were calls that preceded the withdrawal of the Sadrist bloc from parliament, as this withdrawal led some leaders of the "framework" to count on an end to the political blockage after the "framework" became the largest parliamentary bloc.  

  

According to the researcher, Al-Sadr’s success in disrupting the parliament’s convening through demonstrations and sit-ins by his supporters has deepened the political impasse, as it is no longer related to the language of numbers and parliamentary and legal mechanisms, but rather the conflict has moved to a less controlled and predictable space, through the parade of crowds in the street. While al-Sadr seeks in this way to prevent the "framework" from proceeding with the formation of his government after choosing Muhammad Shia' al-Sudani as a candidate for its presidency, the "framework" refuses to back down, fearing that this would be a declaration of compliance with al-Sadr's conditions and his ability to use the street, and instead cling to "mechanisms". and constitutional institutions” according to the data of the “Framework”.  

  

He pointed out that with the disruption of the legislative authority, and Sadr placing the judiciary and its head - accused of favoring the "framework" - in a difficult position, by giving him a short period of time to issue a decision from the Federal Supreme Court to dissolve parliament, some parties to the "framework", especially Nuri al-Maliki's wing - are trying - Qais al-Khazali, the "hardliner", who was recently approached by Ammar al-Hakim, the leader of the "Hikma Movement", staged demonstrations for their supporters to prove that al-Sadr does not have a monopoly on the street, and that the "framework" is capable of playing it in this space as well.  

  

The article pointed out that the mutual mobilization of the public raises fears of things getting out of control and developing into mutual violence between two parties that have armed militias, a scenario that is constantly being warned about as a Shiite-Shiite war that will cause everyone to lose.  

  

However, until now, the two sides are keen to control and largely control the movement of the demonstrations, and there is nothing to suggest that either of them wants to go to a military confrontation. Rather, the use of the "street" takes place in an instrumental manner and within the framework of a show of force and indirect negotiation. Nevertheless, the possibility of escalation remains, especially if al-Sadr is forced to take other, more radical steps in the event that his demands are not met or a third-party-sponsored settlement fails to crystallize.  

  

Regarding the main question about the role of the reference, Harith Hassan believes that Al-Sistani and his office will tend not to directly and explicitly intervene as long as the confrontation remains under the roof of violent conflict. This does not mean that Sistani's office, and in particular his influential son, Muhammad Reza, and the networks associated with him, are prevented from playing undeclared roles or encouraging parties to intervene, including the Iranians. But the transition to the stage of explicit intervention does not seem likely as long as things do not deteriorate to the point of threatening societal peace, whose preservation is one of the tasks for which Sistani considers the reference to be responsible.  

  

The researcher believes that al-Sistani’s authority does not seem enthusiastic about Muqtada al-Sadr’s movement, and according to the information available to him, he came to the conclusion that the circles of the traditional estate close to the authority feel some threat from al-Sadr’s attempt to impose his will and his future project and ambition to control the joints of political power and play a key role in arranging the situation Najaf estate in the future.  

  

The writer explained that al-Sadr's ambitions re-ignited some of the concerns that had been raised during the rise of his father's authority in the nineties, especially among some traditional seminary families that still play influential roles in the Najafi religious community, such as the al-Hakim family and the al-Khoei family.  

  

Regarding the Iranian role, the researcher pointed out that the intervention of Sistani’s house, in coordination with General Qassem Soleimani, played a decisive role in naming Adel Abdul-Mahdi as prime minister in 2018. He finds it difficult to reach a similar settlement, especially since al-Sadr's ultimate goal is the exclusion of his opponent, President Nuri al-Maliki, and the restructuring of balances within the Shiite political space in his favour.  

[horsesoldier]

Somethings gotta give here. This impasse must be resolved. All everyone does is talk and this is going nowhere fast.

Of course the UN was as always no help. Isn't there be anyone, anybody that has the moral clout, integrity to shame these idiots to move forward & resolve this ? 

I guess the question is can people that possess no shame, be shamed ?

They're into the 11th month of this. Hey Allah, you need to come on down and sort your people out. Honestly, your the only guy that's gonna get through to these boneheads.

I'm not joking here.

[WheresmyRV?]

3 hours ago, horsesoldier said:

Somethings gotta give here. This impasse must be resolved. All everyone does is talk and this is going nowhere fast.

Of course the UN was as always no help. Isn't there be anyone, anybody that has the moral clout, integrity to shame these idiots to move forward & resolve this ? 

I guess the question is can people that possess no shame, be shamed ?

They're into the 11th month of this. Hey Allah, you need to come on down and sort your people out. Honestly, your the only guy that's gonna get through to these boneheads.

I'm not joking here.

Seems like after they got released from 7 that things have gotten worse for this country.