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Excellent chat from Scooter 6-18

lgraham

By lgraham,
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lgraham Newbie

lgraham

Posted
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scooters chat 6/18/2010... 18/6/2010

[scooter] Tonight we have many topics we’re going to discuss --- some have been figured out and others still have not. As a result, I’m calling on you my brethren to help me understand some of the missing components.

[scooter] We have a lot of ground to cover tonight so let’s jump right into it.

[scooter] First for the topics

[scooter] 1. Currency Status ---- The amount in circulation and the infamous 70% liquidity being withdrawn

[scooter] 2. Banking Sector Reform

[scooter] 3. ISX and “International Standing” announcement

[scooter] 4. Exchange Rate Equilibrium ---- World Bank, IMF, and Ministry of P*****ng Terminology

[scooter] I had to take two more topics out but I'm sure we will all survive

[scooter] Ok

[scooter] first

[scooter] 1. Currency Status ---- The amount in circulation and the infamous 70% liquidity being withdrawn

[scooter] The reason I’m bringing this up is that it became a heated debate the other day in chat. In sum, how much money is in circulation and how do the numbers work when you remove 24.8 Trillion IQD from the market.

[scooter] The Answer ---- I don’t know – Still a mystery! I’ve been banging my head up against the wall all day long and still haven’t been able to decipher this one. The article from Alsaba specifically says the Bank is taking 24.8 Trillion out of circulation and will be used for credit on major infrastructure and housing projects.

[scooter] Link to Alsaba --

[scooter] Link to Alsaba -- http://translate.google.com/translat ... ate.google.com

[scooter] Here’s the quote:

[scooter] The general director of the bank Abdul Hussein al-Yassiri told a news conference attended by the "morning" that the bank has achieved an important work focuses on two aspects, namely the withdrawal of excess liquidity from circulation, and then put into the market again, and managed to withdraw 24 trillion and 800 billion dinars, representing 70 percent of the liquidity,

[scooter] Essentially, the numbers don’t add up at all. The Central Bank post their financial Indicators on their website and I did a cut and paste job and posted here at dont promote other sites for your benefit. [scooter] Please review this at your leisure

[scooter] Here’s the link: http://www.dont promote other sites.net/forum/show ... 2044#post12044

[scooter] The CBI says as of April 2010 they have 43,005 Billion IQD – or 43.005 Trillion of M1 money – M1 is the liquid cash.

[scooter] They also indicate they have 51,220 Billion IQD - or 51.220 Trillion M2, of which 27,978 is in the deposits component of M2.

[scooter] They also say Currency in Circulation is 23,242 Billion IQD with Bank reserves of 17,536 Billion IQD.

[scooter] Hence the dilemma --- How can the article be correct when it says they are taking 24.8 Trillion of excess liquidity from circulation when they don’t have that much in circulation?

[scooter] they are only showing 23,242 in circulation

[scooter] So the all day digging occured --- on a mission !!!!!!!!!

[scooter] This one is a frustrating mystery to me still but we made progress today.

[scooter] Here’s why -- I didn’t realize that different countries can classify their M1 and M2 differently. That one was news to me. I’ve always thought it was the same worldwide regardless. Oh, how I was wrong!!!!

[scooter] Essentially, Based on Iraq’s Monetary Policy Instruments, the CBI can affect liquidity several ways. This is defined in the CBI’s Bank Policy Instruments Doc on their Website –

[scooter] Here’s the link -- http://www.cbi.iq/documents/monetary ... olicy_en_f.pdf

[scooter] I’m not going to bore you with the details, but it’s definitely different than the US!

[scooter] As a result – I’ll get back to you on this question – I’ve spent most of the day looking into this and I apologize because I don’t have the answer.

[scooter] But I will!!!!!!!!!!

[scooter] Because this one is very important to us all

[scooter] Now to our second topic – Banking Sector Reform

[scooter] The World Bank created the IRFFI – International Reconstruction Fund Facility. This is where everything comes together --- it manages all projects and distributes the funds for every DPL project. I wanted to show you this for several reasons.

[scooter] One The Effective date of reform is April 2009 to October 2010

[scooter] I know I know -- it says October

[scooter] But hold on

[scooter] There is light at the end of the tunnel

[scooter] and I'll show you in a minute

[scooter] The second reason

[scooter] Was to show you the Project def.

[scooter] The project aims to support the Iraqi authorities in the implementation of Phase I of the “Iraq Banking Reform Strategy” (2008-2012) and its Action Plan, focusing on four main components: (i) institutional and operational restructuring of the two state-owned commercial banks; (ii) financial restructuring of the two state-owned commercial banks; (iii) strengthening the regulatory and supervisory functions of the Central Bank of Iraq; and (iv) project management, monitoring and evaluation.

[scooter] The project supports the Iraqi government to build a sound banking system, able to provide efficient financial services competitively. The immediate direct beneficiaries would be the two largest state-owned commercial banks—Rafidain Bank and Rasheed Bank—which account for more than 70 percent of the banking system. Ultimately, all Iraqi businesses and citizens will benefit from an improved banking system that can provide the resources needed for Iraq’s growth and offer good deposit and payment systems for businesses and households.

[scooter] Now -- In another topic forthcoming --- that October date will make sense

[scooter] and it doesn't have anything to do with the RV

[scooter] Here's the post that supports this:

[scooter] Scooter Post http://www.dont promote other sites.net/forum/show ... banking-reform

[scooter] Here's the world bank links

[scooter] Iraq Reconstruction Fund Facility for Iraq http://siteresources.worldbank.org/I ... INAL060810.pdf

[scooter] Now -- to the reason for October

[scooter] and why they have this extended until then

[scooter] There was an article that came out

[scooter] either today

[scooter] or yesterday

[scooter] ISX and the “International Standing” announcement

[scooter] Here's the link that Hopfultxn posted

[scooter] http://www.dont promote other sites.net/forum/show ... Stock-Exchange

[scooter] I'm not expecting you to read all these links

[scooter] right now -- this is more for the benefit

[scooter] of the people that read the post later

[scooter] now

[scooter] the ISX made the announcement they were going to be Internationally recognized

[scooter] Here's the statement

[scooter] Iraq participated in the meetings of the Executive Directors of the European Union, the Asian stock exchanges such as the delegation of the Iraqi market for securities in it. This was announced by the representative of Iraq at the meeting of the Managing Director of the Iraq Stock Exchange, Taha Ahmed Abdul Salam

[scooter] He said that Iraq's participation task on the road to effectively attend to such global forums confirms the return of Iraq to the environment internationally. He said the meeting dealt with ratification of the final accounts of the Union in 2009 and approval of the report of the directors of stock exchanges by, proposed plans for the Union in 2010, to approve the mechanism for assessing stock members, who number 28 Arab bourse, Asian and European countries through the volume of activities undertaken by the stock market.

[scooter] Now when this came out

[scooter] people immediately thought

[scooter] the currency would be recognized

[scooter] because of this statement

[scooter] The General Authority for the Iraq market will be held on Saturday, 19/06/2010.

[scooter] That's tomorrow folks

[scooter] I can tell you now

[scooter] That tomorrow only brings a vote

[scooter] Here's what it says

[scooter] Among the most important paragraphs of the agenda, approved the final accounts for 2009 and the election of new board of directors last one year only.

[scooter] They are only approving the accounts -- you know the players in the market

[scooter] Here’s another one but pay attention to the date:

[scooter] And discuss the agenda for the Work Committee for the purpose of the meeting of the General Union in October 2010.

[scooter] The first official meeting starts October 2010 --- the last section of the Banking Reform is concluded October 31, 2010

[scooter] I'll say this again

[scooter] The stock market gets recognized in October

[scooter] The Banking Reform Project from the World Bank concludes October 31 2010

[scooter] The do the banks first --- then the stocks

[scooter] Number four

[scooter] Number four – exchange rate equilibrium

[scooter] This one has had me mystified

[scooter] for the past four weeks

[scooter] But I think We got a handle on this

[scooter] This one should put smiles on your faces. I’m going to take three documents and I want you to read them. Here’s how crafty these folks are: Here we go and I’ll make comment afterword.

[scooter] World Bank DPL – Page 18 of 119 http://www-wds.worldbank.org/externa ... 0Use0Only1.pdf

[scooter] 29. Preliminary analysis by the IMF suggests that the real effective exchange rate is broadly in line with fundamentals. The recent fall in oil prices suggest that the Iraqi Dinar might be slightly overvalued, but there seems to be no significant deviation from the equilibrium real effective exchange rate. Relatively low levels of inflation also suggest that overvaluation risks brought about by rising domestic prices are contained.

[scooter] Overvalued?????????????????????

[scooter] How could that be

[scooter] IMF Document - March 2010 -- IMF Country Report No. 10/72 http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/ ... 010/cr1072.pdf

[scooter] 32. The lack of data and large structural changes in the Iraqi economy preclude any meaningful estimation of the equilibrium real exchange rate. A very crude assessment suggests that the dinar is broadly in line with fundamentals.4 With the drop in oil prices, it appears that a possible prior undervaluation has disappeared, and that the dinar could even be somewhat overvalued.

[scooter] OverValued???????????

[scooter] Iraq’s Ministry of P*****ng -- http://www.mop-iraq.org/mopdc/index. ... pid=295&lng=en

[scooter] Justifications for exchange-rate adjustment: there are a number of important and powerful arguments which support the view that the official exchange rate reduces the real value of foreign currency for purposes of calculating the economic national profitability for investment projects and hence for the purposes of investment p*****ng. It is demonstrated in this context to call for assessing the dinar for less than (3.208) dollar (official exchange rate) when assessing project outputs and inputs of traded goods of exports, substitute imports and imports... etc.

[scooter] Estimate the amended exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar to be used in technical and economical feasibility studies and for (1.134) dollar per dinar. This price should be approved for 3 years until re-appreciation by the competent authorities.

[scooter] The reason I bring this up is that the World Bank and IMF were indicating

[scooter] that the IQD was

[scooter] overvalued

[scooter] But they were basing this on the real rate of $3.208

[scooter] not

[scooter] the .00085

[scooter] Essentially ---- all there calculations were originally made at the $3.208

[scooter] and

[scooter] they are right

[scooter] it is overvalued

[scooter] but they say Not by much.

[scooter] so what does that mean --

[scooter] I'll let you decide

[scooter] So we learned two things today

[scooter] The rate of 3.208 is slightly overvalued from it's equilibrium point

[scooter] which blows me away

[scooter] but I'll run with it for now

[scooter] and two

[scooter] That October 31 concludes the project

[scooter] for Banking

[scooter] and we know what happens on June 30th

[scooter] so the banks fall first

[scooter] and the M2 and stocks fall second ----- Just my humbled opinion

[scooter] That's it for tonight

[scooter] I hope you enjoyed the show

[s

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Scooter Newbie

Scooter

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You're Welcome! I'm glad it helped...

Scooter

Thank you for sharing this Igraham. This is the first time I have read a clarification of why "overvalued" was used to describe the dinar...and I sure like this explanation :)

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automag Newbie

automag

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Posted

Now that was some good information. I am impressed by scooter and all the work he has been doing. This fellow is a serious researcher and I thank him for his efforts on my behalf and everybody connected to this investment. Guys like this are a real asset.

Impressive...........Most Impressive. Darth Vader ;)

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Scooter Newbie

Scooter

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Thank you very very much!!!! I very much appreciate those comments.

Scooter

Now that was some good information. I am impressed by scooter and all the work he has been doing. This fellow is a serious researcher and I thank him for his efforts on my behalf and everybody connected to this investment. Guys like this are a real asset.

Impressive...........Most Impressive. Darth Vader ;)

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Unitedrich Newbie

Unitedrich

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Posted

I do not normally chime in on chat postings but this one has some excellent stuff in it! All the groups are saying the same thing. We are almost at the end of this ride...

Cable, I agree. Then again I respect your opinion, so if your digging it, I become more of a betting man. :)

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Teresa82 Newbie

Teresa82

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Posted

Scooter, can I say, you are really the first to come into the information arena with short, concise,understandable descriptions of what you believe is happening with our investment, AND with a clear cut link to EACH theory you claim, AND the exact quote, for those of us who don't have the time to go digging on the link immediately. I applaud you, because being an information buff myself, I know the countless hours that takes to confirm, and reconfirm what you are trying to find. I really appreciate your time, and tenacity, on this matter for all of who are not paying you a DIME!!!!

I do appreciate all of you , who for the sake of only helping out your fellow Dinar holders, go through extensive searches, posts, news articles,etc, for us!!! For all of you who post news, and information, just to help someone else out, not getting paid for it, and we can't even pat you on the back. But we can say WELL DONE, and THANK YOU!!! I for one appreciate it so much, and respect you all for it.

THANK YOU ALL!!! :D (you know who you are)

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Scooter Newbie

Scooter

Posted
Posted

Thank you all! I am truly honored and touched by your comments --- those comments are the driving force to dig deeper!!!!

Also, I would like to thank the poster lgrahm ---- much appreciated! I don't who you are but I am taken back that you thought it was worth posting!!! Thank you again.

Have a great day all!

Scooter

Scooter,

It is great to see you in here. I love what you are doing for the benefit of all of us. Thank you very much..... I agree 100% with what Automag said.

Lgraham

No -- Thank you for posting!!! I had no idea the work was being disseminated to so many ---- that makes me feel very good and I'm truly thankful for you doing this!

Best,

Scooter

Scooter,

It is great to see you in here. I love what you are doing for the benefit of all of us. Thank you very much..... I agree 100% with what Automag said.

Lgraham

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