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Thief

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  1. For Iraq to de-dolarize, they need a currency that functions as real money ~ store of value, unit of account, medium of exchange, FULLY.
  2. And the value of the dinar will be very volatile. Not what Central banks want. Central bank prefers their currency to be stable within certain percentage on either side. Like snake-in-the-tunnel
  3. I'm sure you meant IMF Article 7, not Chapter 7. IMF has no Chp. 7. Article VII: Replenishment and Scarce Currencies 1. Measures to replenish the Fund's holdings of currencies 2. General scarcity of currency 3. Scarcity of the Fund's holdings 4. Administration of restrictions 5. Effect of other international agreements on restrictions
  4. This is not about exchange rate. 1/12 is the rule for the disbursement of the budget. If they have not approve or open their current year budget, they will have to use the 1/12 rule. Meaning they will disburse their monthly commitment based on previous year budget.
  5. In the final stretch, it is better for the exchange rate of the dollar to be higher than the current official rate. This means for every dollar out there, banks collected more dinar from the public. This is how they reduce the amount of dinar from the market ~ by transferring their wealth to the dollar while they reduce the amount of dinar in circulation. My only hope is, we are in the final stretch.
  6. As long as the function dinar not on par with USD, dinar will lose and prices will keep dropping.
  7. Don't put too much attention on what they are saying, always see what they are doing. All those meetings with IMF, WORLD BANK, UST for a LOP? Doesn't add up.
  8. And the price of IQD is still at 1460. Something doesn't seems right... 🤔🤔
  9. Generally, to determine the exchange rate of a country, several factors/indicators have to be taken into considerations. - Economic health (economic indicators) - Public debt - balance of trade - inflation - political stability (just to name a few). The question is: were all these factors taken into consideration when they first set the dinar exchange rate (1500 IQD per dollar) in 2003? ~ economic health? What economic health? ~ balance of trade? Nope, they didn't have any trade with anybody. ~ political stability? I don't think so. ~ inflation? Cruelest/hyper So what were the economic factors that determine the rate of IQD then? I don't know, what I know is ~ that exchange rate could not be the true equilibrium rate. That was why IMF had to come in with a program and help them to maintain stability. Now, let just assume that they did take all those factors into considerations ~ has any of those indicators change over these last 20 yrs or so? Definitely. Which means the current rate of 1460 IQD per USD (which is as old at that of year 2003) needs to change. And I don't see 20 yrs of economic, political progress means changing their exchange rate by just 20-30% of their 2003 exchange rate. See my point Kap?
  10. Nobody questions their intentions to float. The real issue here is ~ at what rate they start to float their currency. If 1450 or 1190 is not the real value of their currency, then floating them at this rate will cause high volatility which the CBI are not prepared to allow. Personally, I dont think cbi will float their currency at this rate becos this rate was 'developed' when Iraq was still at war, technically.
  11. Once they revalue their currency to their actual value, private sector will pick up (now that they are no longer under any chapter 7 restraints) and local productivity won't be much of an issue anymore.
  12. The status of IQD is changing very fast. If they are changing back to 1190, people won't be rushing to sell their dollar for DINAR (given the stability and the convertibility of USD). Something is definitely cooking.
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