Saleh appearance: the general equivalent of the dollar values model
Appearance of Mohammed Saleh
The concept of the general equivalent of Numeraire goes to the existence of a single commodity representing the basic commodity, which makes all other goods priced against that commodity. This comparison makes it possible to diagnose any commodity that is the highest or lowest value of other commodities. On this basis, the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1944 approved the dollar The price of one ounce of gold is equivalent to 35 US dollars.
And all the currencies of the world are either parts of the dollar, or more than the dollar multiplier. Thus, the dollar played the role of the general equivalent of values because of its stability to the price of gold over a quarter of a century. But the fixed exchange system in the global financial stability has lost its resolve and ended In the early seventies of the last century because of the limited official gold in the United States, and the solution of an alternative dollar monetary system born from the womb of the former monetary system.
The general equivalent of the values was linked this time to a commodity basket denominated in the same dollar and fluctuating prices according to the mechanism of the market in supply and demand and is consistent with a flexible exchange system for the dollar. And so the gold out of the official price of him to join the other market basket within the main chain of integrated integrated to form the pillar of the new equivalent of values .
The commodity basket included oil with gold to be the main component, as well as agricultural crops and other commodity groups, all of which are traded in US dollars. In other words, the dollar as a general equivalent of the values of the official monolith is the price constant (as a commodity) Which was gold among them, a commodity possessing the function of storage of value or wealth which is also a function of money ...
(In terms of the Bretton Woods Agreement) to make the dollar the role of the general equivalent of numeraire. In other words, there is a causal relationship born in the post-Bretton Woods period, namely the linkages and mechanisms between the rise in prices of the underlying commodities (Commodity pluralism).
And the decline in the value of the dollar itself or vice versa in a commodity cycle - dollar cycle not limited to gold denominated in dollars, but goes to the dollar-denominated oil also and a number of other commodities denominated in the United States currency, which are all handled through the US monetary unit. The dollar.
It touched derived from the new manifestations of the international financial system as promised basic commodities denominated in dollars safe haven to save the value Awalthot hedge instead of the dollar itself , which helps the stability of values , and vice versa when the rising value of the dollar goes down commodity prices without the US dollar to lose its role in this correlation between The money and its alternatives are denominated in the same currency. It is a monetary system created by the dollar and the real commodities associated with it. The source of the cycle mentioned above is the strength of the real economy and the effects of its markets against the movements of the nominal economy and Show true coherence in maintaining competitiveness and hedge against loss, which explains the decline of the dollar as the price of oil, gold and other commodities.
The transition from the dollar-based monetary system as a general equivalent to the value was formally linked to a fixed price of gold (the promise of gold as a single commodity, with a fixed exchange system accompanied by current balance-of-payments current account liberalization) and the transition to an emerging international monetary system in which the dollar is equivalent General values Numeraire but tied (basic basket of commodity prices move according to market forces and a flexible exchange system with a tendency towards the liberalization of the capital account of the balance of payments in addition to editing the current account) , such as the fact that the fundamental shift or move in the current global monetary system.
Where the global reserves of gold produced, oil, crops and others are all the main commodities with which the US dollar is tied together at the same time in the commodity market, which is in one way or another integrated into the money market, which has been the development of the international financial market and its ability to rotate The world's surpluses of the dollar but in the commodity dollar warehouse itself is not outside its incubator.
The continued international thirst for the dollar has created various analytical paths, particularly those that dealt with the status of official international reserves. For example, the International Monetary Fund noted that international official reserves may be higher than rates of more than 60% of the US gross domestic product The situation in 2010) to reach about 200% in 2020 and may approach 700% of US GDP in 2035.
While world trade continues to pay in US dollars at a rate of 83% of the value of that trade between nations. 56-60% of the world's official reserves are in US dollars, especially the growing reserves of economies in emerging market countries, which today number 54 countries The world accounts for nearly 50% of the world's annual growth. Also, 60% of the loans granted by global banks today are also paid in US dollars.
Even if the dollar loses its value, the intensity of the emerging economies' demand for foreign reserves and their fears today that the dollar will lose its value are the same concerns raised by Belgian economist Triffin since 1947 when the world began to rely on one reserve currency, the dollar. Triffin noted that the United States should issue more government debt to facilitate global trade and meet the demand for those reserves.
Thus, the dollar areas are not only dealing with the US dollar, but there is a major commodity production that is a store of value, which is denominated in the dollar and plays a semi-dollar function. Turning from the dollar to the main commodities is done by hedging the dollar goods themselves, thus creating a mechanism for the supply and demand of the dollar in favor of real commodities A fundamental adopted by the symbolic economy in its trading and which operates in the currency environment of the dollar.
On the other hand, there is a semi-quadrilateral correlation between the US dollar on the one hand and oil and gold and dollar-denominated agricultural crops on the other, creating an alternative monetary system or equivalent to the dollar.
After the addition of crude oil and its derivatives and crops. The incubation of them all today is the development in financial markets, especially futures markets where the three commodities are traded or others through financial speculation to search for margins for profit and financial gains. There is high flexibility in substitution between Commodities and speculative mechanism and investment in US dollars. Thus, it is the financial markets and their commodity components that have transformed the monetary system from being limited to a single- currency equivalent. Numeraire Official fixed gold (the dollar) depends on a multi-dollar commodity system that depends on market forces and balances.
Instead of the currency of a single fixed price commodity, gold is the only one (according to the Bretton Woods system) to determine the general equivalent of the US dollar. There is another monetary system in which the dollar is also a general equivalent of values but against a multi-commodity portfolio. Reverse.
Thus, the financial globalization of the financial markets or stock exchanges made it easier for those who wanted to practice financial speculation freely. The individual could buy oil, gold or tons of copper from the futures market without thinking that the garage of his house itself could not accommodate 10 barrels of crude oil or tons Of copper. The purchase comes in order to sell symbolically later to get profit margins from speculative not only! So regardless of the taste of oil or copper color! It's a symbolic or really nominal casino economy.
The alternative commodities of the dollar today are gold and agricultural crops in addition to oil or derivatives, which are surrounded by the nominal or symbolic economy casino as well as various speculators in the financial market. As the value of financial assets and derivatives increased by 20 times the value of global GDP, which is today about $ 73 trillion.
And there is a syndrome between the rise in the value of the dollar and the decline in oil and gold prices as gold prices fall today to about 1200 dollars per ounce or slightly more, with a significant appreciation of the dollar against other currencies.
Hedging in these days has become the dollar in the world, which is worth more and perhaps will be less hedging towards the market of oil or gold futures or food, unlike what was happening during the boom in commodity prices, especially in the commodities of gold and oil. However, it was observed and through the evidence That the consumption of crude oil has not decreased only by 3% that when the collapse of oil prices in the world market from 140 dollars per barrel to 40 dollars a barrel itself at the beginning of 2009. It also notes that all (five) barrels of oil produced for export go to the market Financial speculation or casino oil versus (One barrel) only goes directly to the refining and then consumption. The share of the financial market from oil derivatives to (seven barrels) for speculative purposes compared to (one barrel only) of those derivatives (especially petrol) to take that barrel way to direct consumption.
In spite of the above, speculators immersed in buying and selling in the futures market are still in awe to ask enough questions to the regulatory authorities in different countries of the world about the potential systemic risks of their financial activities, which are subject to the effects of government economic policy such as interest rates, Balance of payments and the future of public debt policy and other macroeconomic variables that have a profound impact on the stability of the financial market and the safety of its operations.
The global monetary system has transformed its description of the general formula of numeraire from commodity monopolies represented by official gold and according to the Bretton Woods system to the current commodity plurality, according to international financial market data, flexible exchange regimes and freedom of capital movements. 4-5 trillion dollars a day of short-term capital among the world markets for the purposes of financial speculation and rapid gain, while we find that the total global trade of goods and services does not exceed
22 billion dollars a year. It is the game of the market, the exploitation of the economic surplus of nations or the plundering of the surplus, as the late economist Paul Baran put it in his famous book: The Political Economy of Growth, whether it was to play field war and create terrorist states (the model of war in the twenty-first century) The return of oil wealth) or play price wars and the fall of prices of basic commodities or the President of the oil or gold or foodstuffs. Faced with the decline, the availability of monetary system shadow or support through the movements of the daily financial market (futures market) and the total damage It is denominated in dollars in the nominal economy, in the midst of a hedge cycle hedge the value of the dollar fluctuate in money market volatility -obesckl opposite Akiem multiple key commodities denominated in dollars in the same financial market.
The result is that the current dollar monetary system has created a single investment portfolio with its financial / commodity and monetary assets. The above mentioned course does not compromise the value of the dollar portfolio, whose main function is to rotate the surplus around the world.