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Everything posted by Theseus

  1. HI and thanx. Iraq will definitely need to RI before it can RV. What I mean by this is that the IQD will need to be reinstated (RI) back onto the world Forex market which is currently devoid of the IQD. I only speak of an RI in that terms. When I speak numbers other than the current price point for the dinar, this is a revaluation. An RI can be done simultaneously with an RV and to some this is confusing which can be discussed later. While a 10 cent RV would be an increase in value to the reserves, true, but there are other mitigating factors that go against a 10 cent RV. First, we speak of purchasing power. This begets the current MCP practice Iraq employs. The only way a 10 cent RV would work is to do away with the MCP that Iraq employs. However, the black market would still continue to be done in USD due to purchasing power the USD has over the IQD thus the MCP practice would not be done away with. A requirement the IMF holds for Article IIIV. In order for the Iraqi denizen to not only feel like they have more purchasing power they need to be reassured that their national currency is emblematic of their increased sense in purchasing power. This means they need to feel and need to see that the currency they hold in their hands, IQD, is actually worth more than the currency they gave up, the USD. Purchasing power has more to it than just numbers on a sheet of paper. There has to be confidence behind it, this is the "feel" part. (The US monitors this, partly, through Consumer Confidence Index levels) If the general Iraqi sees that their currency is less than what they are being told they have to give up, then the RV will never hold no matter how much education Iraq gives their people. Its like telling a child they have to eat their peas over that scoop of ice cream.Let's face it, any normal child, let alone any normal grown adult, will want the ice cream. Peas, YUCK! And pea-flavored ice cream (DOUBLE YUCK!) just won't cut it. I have always maintained that a par value, 1 to 1, or lower (anything below a 1 to 1) RV will not suffice for Iraq due to the psychological and physical effects it will have in regards to purchasing power. The Iraqi people have been in the poor house too long and they are clamoring to break free. While I am in the 1.16 camp, since Shabibi, there is always a hope for a higher than that RV. I will continue to look at this investment and make my decisions through the data-driven decisions rather than how much I invested emotionally into it. Love is the folly of the fool; for it makes men fools and fools men.
  2. I wrote on March 24 regarding the 2 percent rule. The paper (title colored in purple) does have the algorithm they recommended at the end of the document. As I have not seen this to be changed at this time, not sure if the current 2 percent rule is in place or the one they recommended below. Posted March 24 (edited) IMF Policy Paper: Review of the Fund's Policy on Multiple Currency Practices: Initial Consideration Is a good read not just about the Articles I mention above but does go into depth on the reasoning why MCPs are frowned upon, how they hinder the country they are implemented in and revision to the 2% market rate that so many tout Iraq should be in in order to RV. What is noteworthy, the IMF states clearly within the paper that Iraq cannot have a MCP before acceptance to Article IIIV. It goes into the history of MCPs since 1971 to 2017 and why the practice is frowned upon in general. BOP in case you are wondering is an acronym for Balance of Payment. The IMF states they see a negative correlation between a country adopting a MCP and making a BOP. As to the regards of the fixed 2-percent rule the IMF staff recommended to the IMF Board of Directors the following
  3. A RV of 10 cents will not be enough. Unless you have revised your previous statement regarding this.
  4. In June 2019, the IMF stated they were reviewing their policies and one of them included the 2% compliance rule. So the compliance rule may or may not be in effect for Iraq at this time due to the IMF's review of the policy. The staff recommended something different to the Directors of the IMF. It's been awhile since I read the report and will need to go back to it. I wouldn't hold too much into the 2% compliance issue at this time if I read the IMF paper right as the IMF Director's seemed to go with the new 2% policy which is calculated differently. I can't remember the document title at the moment (I commented on it on another thread) and will look at it later.
  5. Since the reserves are quoted in USD not in IQD, they would have to raise the IQD value to above a par value range to increase the value of their reserves.. The amount of reserves Iraq is equivalent to around 2010-2011 figures (nearly 10 bn shy of the 2014 high at 77 bn). With COVID-19 hitting the world economy hard and the world's economic forecast to be in a seriously fast downward spiral due to the pandemic, Iraq is going to have to rely more on its reserves to get them past this pandemic and if there was ever a case to be made for a RI onto the world market it would be now. However, with the world distracted by China's biggest flub in the history of the world and the fact that Iraq is nowhere near ready politically to seat its government fully combined with the low cost of basrah oil due to overproduction and lessening demand (and a storage issue facing most of the world), the red light will hold steadfast on the RV for the foreseeable future. Iraq's foreign reserves (quoted in USD not IQD) will be hard hit and could see a significant reduction to pre-2008 lows by the end of this year. Even if they think 58 billion and change will hold them through the pandemic crisis. It will take years before Iraq can and will recover their reserves unless the world finds the solution to its storage issue, the pandemic is short lived and can be curtailed come the fall in the northern hemisphere, and the demand of and price of oil returns to before the KSA(Opec)-Russian Oil trade war. Right now, Iraq is betting it all on its reserves but their option for foreign lending is at its lowest than it was before 2016 when Iraq had claimed it would not take out another loan. Too much against Iraq right now for an RV but then again anything can happen.
  6. Ever drive with DTs? Worse than being drunk and driving. Good luck wid dat Naw Oleans! Ever crash during a morning rush hour drive (not talking about collision type crash). Good luck wid dat Naw Oleans!
  7. Check out the date of the article: Devine: Candace Owens’ Blexit movement is Democrats’ worst nightmare By Miranda Devine November 6, 2019 | 10:07pm Enlarge Image Candace OwensAP MORE FROM: MIRANDA DEVINE In the midst of coronavirus crisis, Pelosi goes for woke: Devine Elizabeth Warren lost by copying Hillarious's victim act: Devine Democrats should be wary of backing Joe Biden and his 'senior moments': Devine Criticisms of Trump's coronavirus response are sickening: Devine The irony behind decline of an elite liberal private school: Devine The dirty little secret about wokeness is its lack of diversity. It’s a movement entirely comprising of white, college-educated progressives. Therein lies the problem for the Democratic Party as it lurches left. It has wedged itself between the demands of an aggressively woke left flank and the more socially conservative, more religious black community. Since the party needs 85 percent of the black vote to win power, that’s a problem with lethal political consequences. Which is why Democrats are nervous about President Trump’s embryonic popularity with African Americans, after he won just 8 percent of the black vote in 2016. You can see the seeds in rising poll numbers, with one Rasmussen poll last year placing the president’s approval rating among black Americans at 36 percent. It was quickly dismissed as an outlier, but other polls since have confirmed a smaller upward trajectory. The NAACP’s own poll in August showed Trump’s approval rating at 21 percent. At rallies, Trump waxes lyrical about all he’s done for the black community: a record low black unemployment rate, “opportunity zones” bringing investment to poor cities, criminal-justice reform and his tough stance on illegal immigration. But the red-pill phenomenon in black America is most visible in the rise of charismatic cultural leaders such as the conservative firebrand Candace Owens. This Sunday, at a rally in Atlanta, you will see the power of the movement Owens has founded, Blexit. Blexit means the exit by black Americans from a Democratic Party that takes their vote for granted. “It’s an exit from political orthodoxy and from the left, which bases your worth on your skin color, sex and sexual orientation,” she says. Her goal is to turn Blexit into a grass-roots political force. “Twenty points by 2020 is the dream.” If the left is the Titanic, “I like to view myself as a little iceberg.” Owens says. “Blexit sits underneath that, with thousands of black people sick of being lied to by Democrats.” Just four years ago, Owens was a liberal. Her awakening began in 2016 when she heard then-candidate Trump at a rally in Michigan asking black America: “What the hell do you have to lose?” by voting for him. SEE ALSO Trump 2020 team fighting impeachment one piece of merchandise at a time Owens realized the answer was: absolutely nothing. “What do we have to show for 60 years of commitment to the Democratic Party?” she asks? Her Blexit rallies feature the stories of ordinary people “who were on the left and woke up.” “I tell them I support the president, but I’m not telling you to vote for him, just to vote your values,” she says. “It’s not a call to leave the left and run to the right. It’s a call to people to think independently.” It’s a call to black people to break free from the “victim narrative” that the Democratic Party has spun for them. Owens chose Atlanta for this weekend’s rally because it is the birthplace of Martin Luther King Jr., who she says would be a Blexiteer if he were alive today. “He wanted a society where his children could grow up and not be judged by the color of their skin but by the content of their character,” she says. “We now live in a society where the left says people should only be judged by the color of skin. If you’re black, you must be underprivileged. If you’re white, you must have white privilege.” You can gauge the extent of the threat she poses to the left by the ferocity of the libelous smears deployed against her. She’s been depicted in the media as a Hitler sympathizer and enabler of white supremacy. The source of her courage and her inspiration is her 79-year-old grandfather, Robert Owens Sr., who raised her. “He grew on a sharecropping farm picking tobacco in the segregated South, where there was real systematic racism,” she says. “He believed in faith, family and hard work. There were chores and there were rules. There are no handouts . . . That was the secret sauce. Enlarge Image AFP via Getty Images “That will be my grandfather’s legacy. I fight so people don’t think I’m living through what he lived through.” By far the greatest scourge for the black community is “fatherlessness, the breakdown of the family,” and she blames Democrats as the “author of that epidemic” through passive welfare. Democrats have presided over a “systematic breakdown of family, as they did when we were on the plantation and it made it easier to sell us,” Owens claims. “If they like to come on board with us, it will have to be with policy rather than emotion. Calling Trump a racist won’t work.” Blexit is a ticking time bomb for the left because while half of white Democrats say they are “very liberal” or “liberal,” according to a Pew poll, only 26 percent of black people describe themselves that way. SEE ALSO Rand Paul calls on media to unmask Ukraine whistleblower Owens is not telling Blexiteers to elect Trump, who she understands is a pragmatic businessman who just wants votes, but she is offering an opportunity for the Republican Party to remake itself. Who knows, she may even run for president one day. She doesn’t rule it out. What a rebuke to Democrats if the first black woman president is a Republican. Bring it on. Green karma You couldn’t make this up: European climate activists followed Greta Thunberg’s lead and sailed for weeks across the Atlantic to attend a UN climate confab in Santiago, Chile, only to find it’s been canceled. And the reason the Chilean government called off the COP25 conference? Riots sparked by punitive climate policies — including carbon dioxide taxes on energy — that have jacked up the cost of living. The Chilean government also decided to switch the subway system over to 60 percent wind and solar, an expensive indulgence that forced up the price of fares. Now the people of Chile are firing a warning shot across the bow of other nations considering energy taxes and the precipitous uptake of renewables, as dictated by the Paris climate accord. Chilean unrest and soaring energy prices in other climate-virtuous countries show us why it was a good idea to pull out of Paris. Not that Thunberg and friends will acknowledge their folly if they finally do make it to their new destination, Madrid. Dermot’s dilemma Good luck to Dermot Shea, the NYPD’s next commissioner. God knows he’ll need it. Let’s hope before he took the job that he extracted a promise that Mayor de Blasio would give up his obsession with rewarding criminals. Apart from the message it sends that crime pays, bribing bailed thugs with baseball tickets and movie passes to turn up at court doesn’t make sense. If you know you did the crime, why would you risk going to jail where you can’t use de Blasio’s free stuff? Commissioner James O’Neill showed Shea the price paid by the NYPD for trying to appease its progressive masters. Time to muscle up. For starters, tell the mayor to drive his own kids to school.
  8. Begun? It was in mid swing. Ever hear of Candace Owens? From 2018:
  9. Post a pic of what you are standing on!
  10. Just watch Biden's last COVID-19 livestream on youtube....that was a fun time in the OK Corral. Or just catch him throughout the day on the lamestream media. From the NY Post Joe Biden makes series of gaffes in long day of cable news appearances By Emily Jacobs March 25, 2020 | 10:31am | Updated Joe Biden makes series of gaffes in long day of cable news appearances Share Play Video MORE ON: JOE BIDEN Biden slams aid bill for lack of progressive policies A Hong Kong coronavirus warning and other commentary Bernie Sanders will stay in 2020 race until New York primary Biden turning home into studio to broadcast coronavirus, campaign updates Presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden spent the past two days conducting blunder-filled TV interviews from his home — and a virtual press briefing Wednesday where he said he doesn’t want to debate Bernie Sanders anymore. “Do you think there should be another debate in April, and would you participate?” Biden was asked during his remote press conference. “My focus is just dealing with this crisis right now. I haven’t thought about any more debates,” Biden said. “I think we’ve had enough debates. I think we should get on with this.” The briefing followed a media blitz on Tuesday during which the gaffe-prone former vice president lived up to his reputation. “We have to take care of the cure. That will make the problem worse no matter what. No matter what,” Biden said on ABC’s “The View” when asked to respond to President Trump’s desire to restart the economy amid the coronavirus ­outbreak. Biden went on to discuss “flattening the curve.” “We know you have to — you’re tired of hearing the phrase, you got to flatten that curve where it’s going up like this, people getting it, and then it comes down. We got to flatten that curve and we got to make sure that once, in fact, we have this under control, it doesn’t come back,” he sputtered. Speaking a few hours later with Jake Tapper on CNN, Biden was criticized for coughing into his hand just moments after telling the host that he had not been tested for coronavirus because he was feeling OK. It played out like this: “I have not been tested for the coronavirus. I have had, thank God, no symptoms that I’m aware of,” Biden, 77, said. Tapper then moved on to another question about Sanders, during which Biden coughed directly into his hand. As Biden answered his question, he coughed a second time into his hand. Tapper then called out Biden for doing so. “You know, you’re supposed to cough into your elbow. I learned that, actually, covering your White House,” Tapper said. “No, actually — actually, that’s true. But fortunately I’m alone in my home, but that’s OK. I agree. You’re right. Excuse me,” Biden responded. Biden also said he had written an op-ed for US News & World Report on Jan. 17 on the outbreak and what he believed Trump could do to halt the spread of the virus. Biden actually wrote it for USA Today, which published it Jan. 27. Within the same hour as the CNN interview, Biden made another appearance filled with odd comments, this time on MSNBC. “Now all of a sudden, [Trump] is being tough on China. He’s making sure — and now he’s being soft on his xenophobia in the past, so I just can’t figure the guy. It’s like, I don’t know, it’s like watching a yo-yo. I shouldn’t have said it that way,” Biden said of Trump’s response to the virus. Trump took a swipe at Biden on Twitter Wednesday, posting a montage of Biden’s Tuesday media blitz and sarcastically dubbing him “The Democrat’s Best & Finest!”
  11. • If a dude pretends to be a woman, you are required to pretend with him. • Some how It’s un-American for the census to count how many Americans are in America. • Russians influencing our elections are bad, but illegal Mexicans voting in our elections are good. • It was cool for Joe Biden to blackmail the President of Ukraine, but it’s an impeachable offense if Donald Trump inquires about it. • Twenty is too young to drink a beer, but eighteen is old enough to vote. • Sexualizing children is bad, but 11-year-old drag queens are good. • Illegals aren't required to show ID, but citizens can't buy cough medicine without it. • Citizens are fined if they don’t buy their own health insurance, and then they are forced to buy it for illegals. • People who have never owned slaves should pay slavery reparations to people who have never been slaves. • Inflammatory rhetoric is outrageous, but harassing people in restaurants is virtuous. • People who have never been to college should pay the debts of college students who took out huge loans for useless degrees. • Immigrants with tuberculosis and polio are welcome, but you’d better be able to prove your dog is vaccinated. • Irish doctors and German engineers who want to immigrate must go through a rigorous vetting process, but any illiterate Central-American gang-banger who jumps the southern fence is welcome. • $5 billion for border security is too expensive, but $1.5 trillion for “free” health care for illegals is not. • If you cheat to get into college you go to prison, but if you cheat to get into the country you go to college for free. • Politicians who say that the President is not above the law put illegal immigrants and themselves above the law. • People who say there is no such thing as gender are demanding a female President. • Illegals don’t pay taxes, but they get tax refunds. • We see other countries going Socialist and collapsing, and it seems like a great plan to us. • Voter suppression is bad, but not allowing the President to be on the ballot is good. • Fourth-of-July parades are bad, but parades of women dressed as vaginas are good. • Some people are held responsible for things that happened before they were born, and other people are not held responsible for what they are doing right now. • Criminals are catch and released to hurt more people but stopping them is bad. And pointing out all this hypocrisy somehow makes you a "racist". Are you tired of living in the Left’s liberal, dystopian nightmare? - copy, paste and share.
  12. I did not see this article when I posted on another thread. I stated as much that the IMF said politely to Iraq in June 2019 that this day was coming. This is just the World Bank. The IMF is next.
  13. IMF Policy Paper: Review of the Fund's Policy on Multiple Currency Practices: Initial Consideration Is a good read not just about the Articles I mention above but does go into depth on the reasoning why MCPs are frowned upon, how they hinder the country they are implemented in and revision to the 2% market rate that so many tout Iraq should be in in order to RV. What is noteworthy, the IMF states clearly within the paper that Iraq cannot have a MCP before acceptance to Article IIIV. It goes into the history of MCPs since 1971 to 2017 and why the practice is frowned upon in general. BOP in case you are wondering is an acronym for Balance of Payment. The IMF states they see a negative correlation between a country adopting a MCP and making a BOP. As to the regards of the fixed 2-percent rule the IMF staff recommended to the IMF Board of Directors the following
  14. I remember reading a recent document from the IMF about several countries and Iraq being one of them. In the document, it had frowned on Iraq's reluctance to answer their financial woes with external borrowing of loans from the IMF. I cannot remember the paper and am trying to find it. When I do, I will post it. In the same paper, the IMF did state that making it more viable for investment to happen in Iraq is a key factor to building a robust fiscal framework. I viewed this statement from the IMF as a polite way as saying they are almost at their limit with Iraq's borrowing of external funds as Iraq needs to start seeking more ways for an internal fiscal solution rather than looking externally for their fiscal solution. There will come a day that the IMF is going to say to Iraq no more loans. When that day happens, coming sooner than later, Iraq is going to be in a world of hurt they have not seen before. The IMF has said, multiple times over and over, that Iraq needs to get away from the MCP. In other words, they need to rely less on the USD and more of their own currency. (AH! this reminded me of the paper). In the IMF Policy Paper: Review of the Fund's Policy on Multiple Currency Practices: Initial Considerations dated June 2019 Paragraph 44 states: The paper is a long read but one worth noting as it pertains to Iraq and MCP practices in regards to Article XIV and IIIV.
  15. A few years ago, Iraq made several deals with Asiatic countries. Among those countries were the likes of China and South Korea in which Iraq would sell and deliver Iraqi oil to them. At that time South Korea imported 74% from the ME. In January of this year it was reported South Korea is now going to import more oil from the United States in 2020 per the article below. The drop in the dependance on ME oil is not boding well for Iraq who needs the sales to boost their economy. Has China followed suit? All of this is before the coronavirus hit its full stride. Their "painful readjustments" come from their competitors that are highly visible and flush with cash rather than being flush with a fever from an invisible opponent. They will most undoubtedly blame this on the coronavirus but the deeper one goes into the sales of oil by Iraq, one finds those countries that are reducing their dependance on Basra and other ME oils in favor of source that has shown more stability in its production and delivery mechanisms. The United States has done so, so why not the rest of the world follow suit? South Korea To Boost US Oil Imports In 2020 By Tsvetana Paraskova - Jan 16, 2020, 10:30 AM CST As South Korea is looking to reduce its over-reliance on crude oil imports from the Middle East, it has increased its oil imports from the United States in recent years, which mitigates, to an extent, Korea’s exposure to a potential disruption of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, IHS Markit said on Thursday. South Korea’s diversification from oil supplies from the Middle East intensified as the U.S. slapped sanctions on Iranian oil exports and South Korea stopped importing oil from Iran. Meanwhile, after the U.S. lifted a ban on oil exports at the end of 2015, American oil has started flowing to destinations in Asia. South Korea’s plan to diversify its oil supplies and to reduce its reliance on the oil flows in the Strait of Hormuz has started to take shape faster than previously expected, Fotios Katsoulas, Liquid Bulk Principal Analyst, Maritime & Trade, IHS Markit, said in an analysis. Yet, South Korea has a long way to go to diversify and any disruption in the Strait of Hormuz will have the Asian oil importer struggling, Katsoulas noted. The Strait of Hormuz is the most important oil chokepoint in the world with daily oil flows averaging 21 million bpd, or the equivalent of 21 percent of global petroleum liquids consumption. According to EIA estimates, 76 percent of the crude oil and condensate that moved through the Strait of Hormuz in 2018 went to Asian markets, with China, India, Japan, South Korea, and Singapore the top destinations. Just three years ago, South Korea imported 74 percent of its crude oil from the Middle East. In 2018, this share dropped to 68 percent and then further down to 64 percent in 2019, according to IHS Markit data. Last year, South Korea was Asia’s major importer of crude oil from the U.S. This year the trend is set to continue, unless the U.S.-Asia route becomes uneconomical, due to rising freight rates after the U.S. sanctioned Chinese shipping firms for knowingly dealing with Iranian oil, IHS Markit’s Katsoulas says.
  16. Dr. Oz ordered quarantine sex! Baby boom nine months from now! More December babies who will grow up hating Christmas because their b-days are too close to Christmas!
  17. What Iraq does base their oil upon? I already know this answer as I have used those charts when talking about Iraqi oil not Brent crude. I have also been forewarned before this article coming out that due to the political turmoil and the exacerbation of the low price of oil that the powers higher up (above my paygrade like around OS bajillion, more of an expert on Iraq) do not see a rosy picture in Iraq's future. IF intervention is not done "soon" then the outcome might be the non-existence of an Iraq. Meaning there will be no country called Iraq. Like I said before I will wait until the end of this year before reassessing this. Ramadan is coming up soon (April 24th - May 23rd) so there is nothing significant that will be done until June. This is what I am hearing not what I am saying.
  18. Well the locusts in Pakistan ( little north and east of Africa) were sent to eat up the crops and China is now reeling from that infestation. There is a case to be made we are seeing the Seven Plagues of Egypt currently in the world. We have had drought and famine, locusts are infesting Pakistan and are moving into china. We are seeing a plague descend on the people of the world. Something that just came out today was that 40% of all coronavirus cases were people under 18. (Think first born plague of Egypt) So the theory that this is not affecting children is wrong. But then again, the coronavirus has spawned several speculations that this could be to stop the Hong Kong protestors, that China was through with the trade wars and wanted to show their leverage over the USA and the third one I heard was this was an attempt to round up the Cabal while they sheltered in their homes. The last was shown with the arrests of MS-13 in December and 600 members of CGNJ <??>. The latter was also affronted to these members being lackeys and pawns for the demonrats. Which one of these to believe? I will believe the punch line of a joke I once heard was to throw them up into the air and let god sort them out. So we could be having the Seven plagues of Egypt returning and Trump's administration focusing on getting people to turn away from the evils that is being perpetrated on the American people. For example the China Trade Deficit, the Swamp creatures or Congress critters, what is happening in Pakistan and the oppression (real not fake like those in the US claim) of the Christians and other religions (Hindi, Buddha). Ah such is the circle of life. Darwin was wrong about many things but the Darwinism Award is always right on the money because people will always be people.
  19. According to CDC, this year's flu season has led to at least 17 million medical visits and 370,000 hospitalizations. CDC found that the percentage of outpatient visits for influenza-like illness increased to 5.2% in the week ending on March 7, up from 5.1% the previous week. The national baseline for those visits is 2.4%. CDC estimated that there have been at least 22,000 deaths related to the flu so far this season. Yeah you should look before you leap, bucko. Just to compare: Coronavirus Cases: 26,684 Deaths: 340 Recovered: 176 So there are only four thousand more cases of the coronavirus than deaths by the flu. CDC numbers not percentages!
  20. Well since you have done what you always do and I would love nothing more than to keep pointing out your follies, Star Trek and the Borg are calling again.
  21. You keep putting words into my threads so I have to defer that to you.
  22. Why do you keep inserting things that are just not there? No one threatened you. Period. You have a habit of seeing things that just isn't there. It's your nature to do that to try to get other people in trouble and riled up. Do you get your jollies off on it?
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