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Theseus

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Everything posted by Theseus

  1. Based on the IMF report, if a RV were to occur, there would have to be at minimum two quarterly reviews. The first review would happen after March 2016. The second would happen after June 2016. So any chance of RV wouldn't happen until at least October 2016, provided no further reviews are needed. So basically an RV will not transpire this year. The IMF is basing the rate at 1,180 ID per USD on the CBI rate set November 10, 2015. This will be the program rate for the ID until after the IMF has completed all their reviews. Sit back, relax and remain vigilant until October 2016 when, once again, they have to deal with the budget. Hopefully they will meet all the goals set forth by the IMF and can at least RV sometime in 2017. This is all in Iraq's hands and we just need to watch wait and see. Al other rates are bogus.
  2. For comparison sake: In 2008 the total number of USA Federal employees was at an all time high of approximately 22.4 million out of a population of approximately 304 million. This equates to 7.38% of the population is employed by the Federal Government. Or one Federal employee for every 13.5 people in the US. Note this is for Federal employees, State employees and Local employees that are Full-time and Part-time. Iraqi government employees approximately 7 million people out of a total population of approximately 36 million. This equates to 19.44% of the population is employed by GOI. Or one GOI employee for every 5.14 people in Iraq. USA Federal employees; 1:13.5 GOI employees: 1:5.14 Its no wonder why Iraq is spending so much on their governmental employees; 20% of the country works for the government.
  3. No disrespect but calling the arrest of Maliki is like saying everyday: I will predict tomorrow there will be a full moon. And once a month it happens. Everyone knows it is coming especially after the release of the files corroborating what everyone suspected. However, I searched for other articles in regards to Maliki's arrest and found nada, zilch. The arrest of a former head of state would be larger news than just one article portrays. Is his arrest inevitable? More than likely unless he pleads and gets a deal, which will more than be unlikely in Maliki's case when so many are out for blood because of what he has done.
  4. First they claim the reduction is an "error". Then they say the rate has not been changed but we all know it was to 1182. So were they supposed make the exchange rate for the dinar 1116 or 1182? This article is contradictory unto itself for either a decrease or increase. This just could be misinformation to confuse the H-E-double hockey sticks out of us.. Either way the IQD is still showing 1182 on the CBI webpage and that is what I am going to go by.
  5. This line does bode confidence for the story. This needs to be corroborated before it is held to be true.
  6. Really how big of a "wheel barrel" do you need to carry 40 x 25K IQDs? I think Toys-r-Us sells "wheel barrels" for toddlers that can hold at least that many. If they get paid 910,000 IQD, 1 x 100K IQD would come up short as payment. They would need at least 10. That is third grade math. They would need 4 x 250, 000 IQD if they were paid 910,000. Just saying. Here is a thought if the IQD is not changed in denomination size (like 25, 000 note to a 25 note) then when the RV does happen a 25K note still will be only a 25K and they will still get paid only 910K. Wow! You mean my 25K note doesn't magically transform itself into gold?
  7. Well let's see. I have 25K IQDs. If I have 4 of those that would make 100K IQDs. 8 of those would be 200K and 40 of those would 1 million IQD. I put 40 IQD's into my one "Wheel barrel" and it doesn't even come close to filling it up. Now if I took and had lesser amounts on the bills, it still does not fill my "wheel barrel" unless the IQD was in denominations of 1 IQD. Then my single "wheel barrel" might overflow. Going to have to take a lot more than 1 million IQD in 25K denominations to have multiple "wheel barrels".
  8. I have a third cousin twice removed papies granddaughter's third mole on the right side of her chin - ya know the one with the three foot hair growing from it - heard from her twin's thrid cousin's brother-in laws second aunt thrice removed say something to the her cousin's brother's daddy that an auditor heard it from his fifth cousin completely removed say ... soon!
  9. ¿Dónde está el patrón ? I think that is the question you might be searching for?? Its what I ask every time I enter the liquor store. So much easier to aks in spanish for some reason.
  10. IS this rainbow Shargat or lemon? Oops, was think Sherbet. My bad. Move along.
  11. Yeah, there is. They are meeting and talking behind closed doors! Nothing to see here move along. I know nuthing!
  12. Actually, the use of munitions that would not produce the spectacle of the mushroom cloud variety but the type that would not allow the re-habitation into lands that Daesh currently occupies would be a sound strategy. Salt their lands and water supply.Given that the land is uninhabitable would force them to go else where or be corralled into a more dense location. Which will then make it more conducive to let conventional munitions to do what they were designed to do. Allow them to neither drink nor eat and they will become hungrier, thirst and their ideologies will then go by the wayside in favor of food and drink.
  13. An agreement with the Kurds does not miraculously make an Oil and Gas Law. It never will because the Kurds are only one of 9 oil producing regions (albeit the largest in Iraq). That is the point. Oh look a grain of sand moved in Iraq... it's time to RV!
  14. This is a brief synopsis as to why Iraq can't put the HCL in the Budget right now. This is more a high level overview as to the reasons and a brief to as what the draft will consist of. One would surmise all the Iraqi parliament has to do is include a paragraph in the draft of the budget, get it read and published in the gazette and voila! Immediate RV! It’s not that simple. Here is why. First, the current setup that Iraq has for their oil revenue dates back to the 1950’s. Little of this has been changed. This setup is not designed to distribute and assign privileges to the citizens of Iraq. This means that the revenue went to infrastructure projects instead of salaries and pensions. This setup has failed the country of Iraq and her citizens time and time again. Restructuring this entails dismantling the current process and building from scratch to accommodate Iraq’s Constitution in which will resolve the distribution of privileges and responsibilities between the Ministry of Oil in Bagdad and those in authority in the regions. Second, the oil revenue in the past has failed to supply the residents of Iraq with a continuous supply of electricity and water due to endless corruption of authorities not only at a national level but at a regional and local level as well. This is being addressed by the current government and they are making significant progress, albeit not as fast as everyone would like (case in point Maliki). Third, the on-going negotiations with Erbil presents a sizeable problem for those wishing to invest in Iraq, especially related to oil. Conflicts of interest happen all the time in every part of life. However, this constant flare up presents legality issues with those companies wishing to invest with Iraq. This means there must be a reliable history of successful negotiations with proper follow through. Funds must be allocated on time. Lastly, a change in government can lead to instability in all sectors of the country. This last part has shown that Maliki and his cronies are beyond corrupt. A country that should have become stable after the fall of Sadam has only given way to further corruption or the continuation of such. Abadi is trudging through the muck and mire and getting things done. This process takes time as discovery needs to take place, investigations need to be handled then a fair and just prosecution of those actors need to be shown to the world that Iraq can stem the tide of corruption. The Oil and Gas law, currently a draft, cannot simply be put into the budget as a paragraph to be implemented. In order to rectify the current situation, a proposal of forming a federal council that includes officials from the federal government, provinces and regions. This council then will be tasked with coordinating and negotiating between the Iraqi oil ministry and the provinces, this includes all provinces not just Erbil. The law will also task the feds with the planning and implementation of oil production throughout the entire country. In order to implement the Oil and Gas law this requires a government that can successfully coordinate negotiations and follow through on those terms agreed upon. Once Iraq’s Federal Government has shown it can be responsible and dependable to whosever standards they must show, then and only then can the implementation of the Oil and Gas law, once itself is passed, be put into the budget. The Oil and Gas law is a complex creature and Iraq must get it at least 75% right the first go. Otherwise the fragile country will fracture more than it has now.
  15. Maybe because the HCL (more specifically Iraq's Oil and Gas Law and not the agreement between Erbil and Baghdad) must be passed as its own separate law before funding for it can be implemented? Just a fleeting thought.
  16. Hold the phones! Stop the presses! I thought this was in the budget. Wait! but ...but... you are telling me NOW that it is not in the budget and that it is a separate law altogether? Oh look they moved some sand... its go time! /s
  17. Once the budget is passed, Iraq continues to be without an Oil and Gas Law and has been since 2003. The Oil and Gas law governs all of Iraq's regions and provinces and citizens, not just a deal with Kurdistan. There is a draft law on the books that "The draft law is clear. It confirmed that the ownership of oil and gas was for the whole Iraqi people in all regions and provinces.(Notice the pluralization of regions and provinces, indicating more than one.) It also suggested forming a federal council for oil and gas that included officials from the federal government and the provinces and regions, (again pluralization indicating more than just one) and made the necessary state-level, oil-related decisions through coordination and negotiations between the federal oil ministry and the provinces (pluralization indicating more than one.)." Until this draft becomes law, there is no HCL anywhere in Iraq. An agreement between the Kurds and Baghdad does not constitute the "whole Iraqi people in all regions and provinces". Notice that regions and provinces are plural, meaning more than one. Kurdistan is only one province. Quit trying to make the Baghdad/Erbil agreement into something it is not. I find it ironic the budget will pass and people will be like, "the HCL has passed! time to RV!" Then an article will come out about the Oil and Gas Law draft; people will be dumbfounded as to why it actually hasn't passed; questions will get thrown to Adam and this cycle will continue each year the HCL has not passed but the Erbil/Baghdad agreement is put into the Budget.
  18. No matter how much you wish pyrite is gold it ain't never going to be. The agreement with Erbil in February (2015) was not the HCL and its the same old song and dance this year. The HCL is a separate draft resolution and must be passed separate from the Budget before it can be put into the budget. The HCL is not in the budget. The HCL includes all oil producing regions in Iraq. The HCL is known as the Iraqi Oil and Gas Law. Tell me where in the budget does it say the Oil and Gas law is the agreement with Erbil? Once the HCL is passed they still have to implement it, in its entirety before an RV.
  19. Neg me all you want just because the reality of the matter does not fit into your fantasies. Yeah people have been waiting a long time but it's in Iraq's hands on how they proceed. The Oil and Gas Law is like the recipe to a cake. Just because you have a recipe doesn't mean you have a cake, Only once you have acquired the items, combined them, placed them in the pan, baked the cake and pull it out of the oven do you have the cake. If you mess up you start all over. It is the same way with the Oil and Gas law. Once they have the law passed then they have to acquire what they need, combine the items and implement it. A recipe usually shows a prep time and baking time. The implementation of the Oil and Gas law, once passed, will also have a prep time before its implemented. Once the Oil and Gas Law is fully implemented and the process of every citizen getting their proceeds has occurred two or more times to get the kinks out, then and only then will Iraq be able to bring purchasing power back to the people because they will demand it. Then the RV will happen however they choose. As more and more calls go out for oil provinces to get to rights to every barrel they produce, the pressure will build on Baghdad to complete the Oil and Gas law whether they are ready or not.
  20. Daash and ISIL/ISIS are all one in the same. Iraqi's call ISIL - Daash and Amercans call Daash - ISIS/ISIL. The only problem now appears to be that Al Qeada, the big brother of Daash/ISIL, wants to bring its fledgling back home when AlQeada said that ISIS was too radical for even it, Big brother seems to be jealous.
  21. See the revised version of the Iraq Oil and Law and you will have your answers. The Iraq Constitution gives every citizen a portion of the proceeds from the sale of each barrel (I believe it is article 36 of their Constitution, I could be off on the article number). The Iraq Oil and Gas draft (AKA HCL) in its current state reorganizes the current Oil and Gas laws as they are currently stand which is the same as before Sadam Hussein was in power. To be a bearer of bad news is that once the HCL does actually become law, it still needs to be put in action and that could take awhile given the rate of speed Iraq moves at. Once the citizen's of Iraq begin receiving their share of the sales of oil proceeds then the RV will happen. My guesstimation would be around 2020 or later unless IRAQ moves a little faster than a snail on salt.
  22. And Adam is wrong. Woah I said something sacrilegious, let the negs commence. The reason is this is not the HCL is because it 1) only concerns the Kurds and we will go through again every year until the official HCL law is passed 2) this is an agreement and not a law that must be put into the budget until the HCL is passed; 3) The actual HCL law will benefit ALL of the citizens of Iraq according to the Iraqi Constitution, this agreement only concerns itself with one producing province of Iraq and 4) there is a lot of infrastructure coming from the HCL that needs to be put in place and some of that won't make sense if you don't know the history behind what they are doing. I said this last year and people on this site claimed it was the HCL. Then we started hearing about the HCL law more and they were like woah wasn't that the HCL that was in the budget. On the day the budget passed last year I tried to tell people no it wasn't. Everyone, go ahead and think this is THE HCL law and when its not please don't complain and whine about it. Quit seeing what you think it is and see it for what it really is. Again I am invested in this endeavour as well and would like nothing more than a RV. However, I am not going go mining for gold and claim that pyrite (fools gold) is actually gold.
  23. Yes its about meetings for more lonas, however you have to distribute those loans once you receive them. This is what the final paragraphs of the article is stating. They are wanting the HCL in place by the time budget rolls around again next year. The sidebar of this article is the meetings. The real story is the call for the HCL indirectly. HCL is not about RV. It is about distributing to all of the citizens of Iraq their share of the sales from the proceeds from the sales of Oil. From there Iraq can RV should it want. What Iraq does doesn't always equate to an immediate RV. It could be part of the total formula that eventually leads to an RV but not always.
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