NotAChance

Sorry about the delayed response. I just saw your question. The basket currently consists of the euro, Japanese yen, British pound sterling, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona, and Swiss franc. I don't think there's any scenario that would include the Iraqi dinar in the dollar index basket. Iraq is way too small of an economy. It would take dozens of years of double digit growth and a huge diversification of the Iraqi economy before we could ever expect Iraq to be a significant player in the world economy. Truthfully, it's one of the reasons I feel the prospects of the dinar are highly overrated. In the unlikely event the dinar ever was included in that basket, it's likely the dollar would weaken if the dinar actually revalued as many people speculate. However, your odds of winning the lottery are better than the dinar ever being included in that basket. There has been discussion of creation of a unified middle east currency. All the middle eastern countries would share a currency similar to the euro. I think it's highly unlikely they could ever successfully launch a unified currency, especially with all the problems we're experiencing with the euro. However, if they did, that currency would be very desirable and could provide signficant more clout to countries like Iraq.

BS. Another unsubstantiated, unverifiable, drive-by rumor from a newbie. Dinar sales must have taken a hit after the announced troop withdrawal. This must be the pumpers working overtime to spin our troop withdrawal as a good thing. Don't believe a word of it. No "boots on the ground" could possibly know the purpose, implications or outcome of a withdrawal. In addition, Obama knew nothing of the sort. He fought like mad for an agreement to get a large contingent of our troops to stay beyond 2011. If he had his way, our troops would have remained. He didn't agree to withdraw them so the RV could occur. He agreed to withdraw them because the Iraqi gov't didn't want them to stay. This is just more garbage.

Because we are trying to make people "informed, engaged, and prepared" about the dinar. Why did you ask the question if you didn't want to hear the answer?

There are 3 different answers depending upon the specific question you were asking. 1. Your question assumes the dinar will revalue. That is unlikely. The dinar is far more likely to redenominate. If that happens, there will be no material change in the relative value of the dinar to the dollar. 2. If there is a revaluation and the dinar increases in value, by default, the US dollar must go DOWN in comparative value. Currency valuation is a zero sum game. One currency can only increase in value if the other currency that it is measured against goes down in value. For the dinar to increase in value to the US dollar, the US dollar must decrease in value to the Iraqi dinar. 3. The US dollar index measures strength of the US dollar relative to a basket of currencies. That basket does not include the Iraqi dinar. There are no plans to include the Iraqi dinar in this basket. So, regardless of what happens to the dinar, it will have no effect on the US dollar index (even if the dollar decreases in relative value to the dinar). The strength of the dollar will continue to be measured against this basket of other currencies regardless of what happens to the dinar. There is no scenario that results in the US dollar going up in value. The outcome of the dinar revaluation will have either no effect on the dollar or result in the dollar losing value. -Nat

My husband is a stockbroker. In my former career, I was a stock analyst. I'm not an expert on CDOs but I probably understand them far better than most people. Contrary to your contention, the do NOT create wealth out of thin air. They take advantage of an inefficient interest rate market and make it far more efficient and predictable. As with any other security, there are 2 sides to every CDO trade. And there is always a side that makes money and a side that loses money. There are people that have made fortunes with CDOs. They made a good bet but that doesn't mean their wealth was created out of thin air. No more so than a person who wins the lottery. They have real wealth and it wasn't created out of thin air. A tiny little piece of labor (production) of all the lottery's losing participants was transferred to the winner. If there were millions of participants, that can mean a tremendous transfer of labor took place in total. CDOs are not vastly different. Just as you make a bet every time you buy or sell a stock on a stock exchange, the same is true with a CDO. You're simply making a bet on a more subtle or obtuse financial instrument. You may be betting on the viability of an entity to stay solvent. You may be betting on interest rates remaining within a certain range. You may be betting on the credit worthiness of a market participant. It really doesn't matter. No matter which side of the bet you're on, if you are correct, the wealth you generated as a result, did not just magically appear. It was transferred from other market participants. CDOs are a very useful, valuable instrument for managing risk. They certainly involve significant speculation but that doesn't make them illegitimate or bogus.

You are right about a gold standard. But you are wrong about money (or currency). Money is not wealth. Money is only a medium of exchange and a storage of wealth. Wealth is the value of your labor, skills and ideas in a voluntary exchange. Just as printing currency does NOT create wealth (in fact, it dilutes it) neither does revaluing a currency.

I assume you're being cycnical but, just in case, of course it was NOT created out of thin air. Wealth is created as a result of production, innovation and efficiency.

It makes a lot of sense. Wealth has never been created out of thin air via currency revaluation.

Of course they're pumpers. But they aren't trying to influence the people that already own dinar. They're targeting the people that just heard about it and are trying to learn more about it. Since there's so little contrarian information on the dinar out there, they try to ensure there is always overwhelmingly positive information out there for people to find. They're trying to convince them that the dinar is a slam dunk "investment". They're trying to convince them that if they delay, they're going to be too late. They don't care if you find out later that it isn't a slam dunk. They know the vast majority of people will never sell their dinar. Even if they do, the spread is so huge their enablers and sponsors will still make a ton of money. As despicable as it is, you have to admit it's very effective. It worked on most of us (directly or indirectly).

If people understand the risks, I have no problem with people buying dinar. I've bought stocks against the advice of other people. The difference is that I could research and study the stocks BEFORE I bought them. After my research I simply either agreed or disagreed with them. How many people here understood the nature of this "investment" BEFORE they bought? Not many. I know I didn't. Even after I bought, I had a terrible time finding any information advising against the dinar. Despite your insistence otherwise, there are very few nay sayers in this "investment". I partially understand why. Dinar sellers and holders have such an emotional attachment to the "promise" and "hope" of the dinar that they immediately dismiss anything contrary to their beliefs. I suppose it's a bit like a political partisan on these talking head shows. They are principled and staunchly opposed to deficits until their guy gets in office and starts running deficits. All of a sudden, deficits are perfectly acceptable and justifiable. No matter what you say, you can't convince them otherwise. There's an emotional force field there. I'm trying to reach people before they put that force field up. This "investment" is the longest of long shots. It would be the first time in human history that anything like this has ever happened. Is it possible (even if slight)? I suppose. I would put the odds at miniscule. But how many know that? If you truly understood that before you invested, good for you. You and I will just disagree as to the worthiness of this "investment". But don't fool yourself and think everybody else did. At least when you play the lottery, the ticket seller is required to disclose the odds of winning to you. You know you have a one in 2 million chance. And the lottery puts you out of your misery every week or so to remind you of how bad your odds are. I believe if most people knew how bad their odds actually were in the dinar, they wouldn't do it. Especially with the poor state of our economy and how desperately people need money for other things. The people that pushed this investment in the beginning, the sellers, promoters, and enablers knew. They took advantage of the perfect storm of ignorance, desperation, and the internet to take financial advantage of people. They didn't care. And now it's taken on a life of it's own.

Time has told you! How many times was the dinar supposed to RV by now? Are you saying that until life on Earth has ended that there's still a chance it might revalue? There's always going to be somebody claiming that a massive, wealth creating RV is right around the corner (especially as long as people keep buying dinar). Time has told you over and over that 's there's not going to be an RV. You just refuse to listen. I appreciate that your not ridiculing my presence on this board. I know you're not picking a fight. I've stated before why I continue to periodically post. I'm simply trying to provide a minimal amount of balance to this mania. This "investment" is massively misrepresented. It's a terrible stock pick gone bad. It is a perfect storm of ignorance, desperation and the internet. I got duped by it and continue to see people that don't have the resources or the knowledge continuing to get into it (many times, egged on by people here). I try to provide what little contrarian information I can. There is very little out there. When it does appear (as in these videos) it's immediately lambasted and dismissed as irrelevant without applying any sort of reason. I'm trying to break people's emotional attachment to the dinar so they can at least start viewing it logically. Apparently, I'm not very good at it. People seem to be as rabidly attached to the RV as they have ever been.

Why would you doubt it? I don't understand. It doesn't make any sense. Do you think those officials on the news reports were misidentified? Do you think they're really not CBI officials or Iraqi economists? Do you think the whole report was a set-up to misdirect people? For what purpose? CBI officials have repeatedly said they intend to redenominate. I know it doesn't fit the template of what you were led to believe with the dinar but, now that you've heard them say it, why would you still doubt it? It's hardly the first time. They've consistently said it in video and print articles. The only variable has been the timeframe. It's not a question of "if" they redenominate, it's just a question of "when". But it really shouldn't matter. A redenomination does not benefit people outside of Iraq that are holding dinar. What is so hard to believe about it? I just don't get it. How much plainer can it be made to you?

Good videos. I don't know how much plainer the story can be told. There's nothing magical or mystical about the dinar that is going to result in sudden riches or wealth for anyone. It's a typical unbacked, fiat currency that has gotten screwed up like so many others in history. They will replace it with something else that will be eventually get screwed up again. Not only that but they're going to revalue the currency through redenomination (the dreaded "L" word). But I'm sure it won't matter to many people here. They don't believe economists and CBI officials when they say that (over and over and over again). That's not "proof" of anything to them. They only believe the goofballs that got them into the dinar. They said they would make millions on an RV. That's good enough for them. That, to them, is all the proof they need.

A sucker is born every minute in this investment. We all heard that message at some point didn't we? "You better buy quick. Who knows when this thing will RV. You don't want to be waiting at the station when the train leaves. Look at all the oil they've got. Look at what happened to Kuwait. You've got so little to lose. Our sources say it could happen anytime." That's the whole purpose of Okie, the GET Team, and the PTR Boys. They're ONLY purpose is to move people off the fence. This nephew just happened to be the latest victim. It's a very influential argument. But the fact that someone else got duped doesn't make it any more likely to RV. I'll bet there's a lot of people here that consider themselves pretty sophisticated and successful investors. That doesn't mean every investment decision they've made has been correct, including this one.

I hope nobody is relying on a bank teller's opinion to determine the validity of an RV. I'll bet you could find a car mechanic, hair dresser, short order cook, and runway model that all thought it was "plausible" too if you tried. What's the point? Bank tellers don't know any more about determining the proper value of a currency than anyone else. They aren't currency experts. Working in a bank doesn't inbibe you with special currency knowledge. That's like asking your hair dresser for advice on fixing your car. On the other hand, currency traders really do understand the mechanisms that affect the value of currency. They take advantage of miniscule changes in the value of trillions of dollars of currency every day to earn a living. If one of them considered the RV "plausible", I might be inclined to listen. But so far, I haven't found one. If somebody has found one, let me know.

LOL! That's me (circa 2007). Hair's a little longer and the belly's a little bigger now. Eighteen weeks in and she already feels like a bowling ball. I'm due March 14th (give or take a couple of days). What's not to like? Must be the hormones. Somehow I don't think it's the attitude. I try not to personally attack people (although, as my husband says, I don't suffer fools easily). I think it's more the content of my postings.

I agree. Which is why people need to stop comparing Iraq to Kuwait in the early 90s. The situations are not even remotely similar. And they need to stop comparing the exchange rate of the dinar to the exchange rate of currencies of other countries with oil and natural gas as PROOF that the dinar is undervalued. The amount of oil and gas in the ground is irrelevant to the value of the currency. It's a fiat currency! It is not backed by oil or natural gas! A country with myriad natural resources is just as capable of ruining a currency as a country with very few. Just ask Argentina, Brazil, Bolivia and Zimbabwe. All those currencies have failed in the last 30 years yet the countries are loaded with gold, silver, oil, trace minerals and fertile farmland. Currencies aren't strong simply because the country has a lot of resources. I agree with you wholeheartedly. Stop the comparisons. Evaluate the value of the dinar independent of any other nation's currency. When you do, you'll likely conclude it's reasonably valued.

No, of course they don't have to RV. The grand assumption has always been that they HAVE to RV. That's just ridiculous. There is no compelling reason that they have to RV. The exchange rate is a straw dog argument. Many countries have a currency with a similar or even lower exchange rate to the US dollar. South Korea is one of them. The won has a nearly identical exchange rate to the dinar. Yet South Korea is a healthy, vibrant economy (relatively speaking) with a huge export sector. An exchange rate does NOT determine the success or growth of an economy. If an RV is all it took to create a successful economy in a country with considerable natural resources, why don't we hear about an RV for any countries in Africa? Or Russia? These countries are absolutely loaded with oil, natural gas, rare earth minerals, trace minerals and industrial elements. There's not a single historical example that people can use to show you how an economy suddently grew because they revalued the currency. People that tell you it HAS to RV are misleading you. Don't be fooled.

How much dong does John have? Did the currency lady at the bank want his dong? What was she willing to give him for his dong? How much dong does she buy every day?

Yea, I'm sure CNN is going to announce the RV. Any RV. LOL! You either are a complete fool or take everyone else for a fool.

I think there are a couple of reasons for this. First, as long as there remains such heavy demand for notes outside of the country, they are happy to sell them for euros and US dollars. It's an incredibly easy way to build your foreign currency reserves. The cost of printing the notes is fractions of pennies. Those notes will not contribute to the velocity of money within the country or contribute to inflation. Secondly, they've haven't successfully weened their citizens or businesses off of the US dollar. The preferred currency of commerce in iraq continues to be the US dollar. They are working on it, but it is difficult to get people to trust a different medium of exchange. In addition, Iraqis prefer a cash economy. The idea of digital money and a credit economy is extremely unusual. I don't think they will successfully convert from a US dollar economy to a dinar economy until they understand electronic banking. Even if they successfully de-dollarize the country they must then introduce lower denomination coins and notes. Obviously, once they lop, they cannot conduct business with a minimum note of 50 dinar. That will be just too big. Small denominations must be available. I see no evidence that small denominations are ready for distribution. I have no doubt they are going to redenominate (lop) the currency. It would be consistent with everything they've ever said and would, indeed, increase the value of a dinar (even though it doesn't change the purchasing power). But I think they are a long way from making that decision. It would be too disruptive right now until their citizens and businesses become comfortable conducting commerce in Iraqi dinar denominated transactions rather than the US dollar. -Natalie

As long as it is, I think everyone should read the postings made by Brian. He does a much better job of explaining the hype of the dinar than I ever could. Incredibly concise and logical. Excellent find!

Any suggestions? I couldn't find any contrarian information before I invested. Eventually, I heard another side of the story after I talked to some currency trader friends. But there was nothing on the internet. There were a few YouTube videos from Jack DeAngelis and a few people warning about fake dinar sellers. But there was very little information advising against buying the dinar. Especially compared to the mountain of information pumping it. It took me 3 months before I felt like I understood all the arguments in favor of and against the dinar. And, to me, the argument against buying the dinar was much more compelling. So I took my 30% loss. I felt duped. I feel like this is a forum where I can periodically make a coherent argument against buying the dinar and occassionally somebody who is thinking about buying the dinar may see it and not rush to jump in until they've put the whole puzzle together. Other than personally telling everyone I know that I think there's reason to be skeptical, there is no other source. And, don't get me wrong, I'm not opposed to people buying dinar. I'm opposed to people buying dinar based on only the hype and pumping. If they hear the arguments in favor of and against the dinar and still choose to buy, that's OK. They drew a different conclusion than me but at least they made an informed decision. That is not an unreasonable.

Why do people obsess about this? I'm sure you're deeply concerned about how I spend my time. I buy and sell stocks regularly. When I consider buying a stock, there are a number of message boards and forums I can go to where posters provide all sorts of opinions and information in favor of and against the stock. Many of those people own the stock. Many of them don't. I don't care. I appreciate their opinions. They all provide information and insight that helps me determine if I want to buy the stock or not. I get a much better perspective and can make a much more informed decision when I listen to all the opinions, even when I don't agree with them. It's what any smart investor should do. If I sell a stock or choose not to buy a stock I still post in those forums so other people researching the stock can get my perspective and make a more informed decision. I appreciate their opinions and I think they appreciate mine. If not, I'm sure they just ignore it. Short of talking to an actual currency trader, there is nowhere people can go to get a contrarian view on the dinar. Nowhere. Most sites shout down or outright ban any slightly negative opinion. Consequently, there is nothing but overwhelmingly pro-dinar hype that people can find. Especially on the internet. That doesn't make for very informed investors. I appreciate that Adam hasn't done that to me yet (although it is certainly his perogative). I'm simply trying to make people aware that there is another side of the story because they can't get that story anywhere else. If people are thinking about spending their hard earned money on the dinar, they should know there are more risks than they've probably been made aware of. I think the dinar is far riskier than they've been led to believe. They may not. But at least they are making a more informed decision if they happen to read one of my posts. I don't know why you feel so threatened by my opinion. If you are confident in your decision and think the dinar is a good investment, it really shouldn't matter if I'm not as enthused about it. You're free to disagree with me (and I'm sure you do) and tell everybody where I'm wrong. But don't try to hide the information from them by intimidating the people that express that contrarian opinion.

Good questions but you won't get any straight answers here. You'll get just a bunch of cheerleading that says it HAS to happen because everybody they listen to has told them it HAS to happen. You'll likely get ridiculed for even asking questions that might lead someone to the conclusion that the dinar will not result in wild riches for everyone. I've asked question #1 and #3 before and came to the conclusion that there is nothing magical, secret or hidden about the dinar. I'm fortunate that my husband is a stock trader and has colleagues that are currency traders. I have talked to them. Not one of them recommended the dinar as an investment (of course, this was AFTER I already bought some). The currency is neither undervalued nor overvalued. The value could increase if the Iraqi economy grows AND their gov't officials don't screw it up by squandering the nation's potential. At best, it's a very long term prospect with a little upside. More likely, I believe, once it's allowed to float, the dinar will gradually lose value to most other currencies as their corrupt gov't officials steal the potential of the country through graft and inflation at a greater rate than the corrupt gov't officials of other countries. I hope I'm wrong. I'd love for Iraq to buck the trend of world history and surprise us all. But, realistically, the odds aren't in favor of it. I've sold my dinar but you should answer these questions for yourself and do what makes sense to you. At least you'll feel more educated about the dinar. -Natalie