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My RV window March 1 st -June 1


kaperoni
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I wanted to post my results from today's investigative work.

The IMF back in 2008 had a SBA (Stand by Agreement) with Iraq. Part of this as most of you know is a "on demand" loan. Iraq currently has no loan with the IMF and has a meeting tomorrow Wed to update the SBA. The SBA is in essence the monetary policy that Iraq follows in order to get out from under the UN guidance.

There are some key items to note from the older SBA document pertaining to Iraq's debt. The three steps of getting most of the debt reduced requires Iraq to follow the SBA. And if so, then much of the debt has been negotiated to go away, what remains will be paid in 2011. to keep it short...here are a few quotes from the 2008 SBA...

"...rescheduled debt to Paris Club creditors start in 2011"

"Even with only a projected gradual expansion of oil output, Iraq should be in a position to meet its obligations to the Fund."

"Based on the Paris Club agreement in 2004, the repayment of the remaining debt stock would start in 2011; the interest payments accrued during 2005

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I wanted to post my results from today's investigative work.

In other words, Iraq must be ready to pay off this remaining debt in 2011. Therefore as already stated in Iraqi news articles, Iraq must have a viable currency with a real exchange rate fully implemented by end of 2010.

So where are we? Tomorrow, Iraq meets with the IMF to update the SBA. This will either be the "green light" or the new procedure they need to follow to get to the "green light" In any case, the RV is coming. I will not predict if it comes before March 1st and the new Iraqi budget, but I will say with certainty that it comes before the next meeting with the UN regarding the DFI on June 1. It simply has to in order to be ready for 2011.

For those who want to read the 2008 SBA here it is... http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2008/cr0817.pdf

Good Post KASPERONI - Thank You...!

I agree with you that it must be done prior to the June deadline, but based upon all the recent information posted, I strongly suspect it will happen before or on 1 March 2010. I can be dreamin', but I trust many of the sources that have provided us with the information and analyses. I believe we will all be very pleasantly surprised - hopefully this week. Let's pray while we wait...!

RON ;)

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