RI Or RV

[Vinnie Hollis]

This Is My Very First Post. No Bank Crap Or RV CLAIMS

But I HAve One Question.. I Know That A LOP/ReDenominate Is On Alot OF Folks Mind But Im Think that A RI not RV Would Most Likely Be The Best Situation For IRAQ.

Would And RI Be less Confusing and time consuming as a RV or RD?

PLEASE DONT BASH ME OR SHAME ME

[Redwizard]

Vinnie welcome to the site.

An RI is posible too. Not sure what Iraq is actualy thinking.

[jg167]

How is an RI (re-instate and old rate, if I have the term correct) any different from an RV? Either one is an adjustment of the value of the dinar. If they have managed to shrink M2 (no indication of it doing anything but growing) and plan on GDP doubling during the coming year, maybe they could RV by 3x but no more as I see it. On the other hand an RD of 1000 to 1 is no problem and it solves the 000s issue, and reaches rough exchange parity for the region. So an RD, with or without a RV of no more then 3x is what I predict. Not what the speculator wants to hear, but such is life.

[cisole]

This Is My Very First Post. No Bank Crap Or RV CLAIMS

But I HAve One Question.. I Know That A LOP/ReDenominate Is On Alot OF Folks Mind But Im Think that A RI not RV Would Most Likely Be The Best Situation For IRAQ.

Would And RI Be less Confusing and time consuming as a RV or RD?

PLEASE DONT BASH ME OR SHAME ME

Welcome to the DV family!

[Vinnie Hollis]

How is an RI (re-instate and old rate, if I have the term correct) any different from an RV? Either one is an adjustment of the value of the dinar. If they have managed to shrink M2 (no indication of it doing anything but growing) and plan on GDP doubling during the coming year, maybe they could RV by 3x but no more as I see it. On the other hand an RD of 1000 to 1 is no problem and it solves the 000s issue, and reaches rough exchange parity for the region. So an RD, with or without a RV of no more then 3x is what I predict. Not what the speculator wants to hear, but such is life.

I Understand That, But If Im Not Mistaken Re-Instating The Currency WOuld SOlve The Same Issues. It Would Give Them Time To Dispose of The 000's while growing economically. As People HAve Said "It was Intentionally devalued, So Why CAnt It Be Intentionally Revalued"...

But Hey Tryna Figure Out Iraq is Like Tryna Figure Out Women...

GO Better IRAQ

[jg167]

I Understand That, But If Im Not Mistaken Re-Instating The Currency WOuld SOlve The Same Issues. It Would Give Them Time To Dispose of The 000's while growing economically. As People HAve Said "It was Intentionally devalued, So Why CAnt It Be Intentionally Revalued"...

Because the dinar was never devalued in the sense that the economic and fiscal situation was the same as now and the government just said, RV 1000x lower. The dinar lost its value due to Saddam printing 20 or 30T dinar. When it was worth (or claimed to be worth) #3.22 there were only 10 or 20B dinar in circulation. Now there are more the 1000x times as many so since the GDP of Iraq is the same order of magnitude as it was then, each dinar has 1000x less value.

[Vinnie Hollis]

Because the dinar was never devalued in the sense that the economic and fiscal situation was the same as now and the government just said, RV 1000x lower. The dinar lost its value due to Saddam printing 20 or 30T dinar. When it was worth (or claimed to be worth) #3.22 there were only 10 or 20B dinar in circulation. Now there are more the 1000x times as many so since the GDP of Iraq is the same order of magnitude as it was then, each dinar has 1000x less value.

Understood.. So The Smartest Thing Would Be To Lower The Currency in Circulation Then Go From There.. IDK If im Going In Circles But Im Just A Curious Mind

[robert1983]

welcome to the site +1

[jg167]

Understood.. So The Smartest Thing Would Be To Lower The Currency in Circulation Then Go From There.. IDK If im Going In Circles But Im Just A Curious Mind

Right. An RV basically (as I see it anyway) resynchs the relationships between the money supply the economy and those of other countries. But for an RV of say 10x to occur, things have to be out of wack by 10x prior to it being applied. So if things are consistent now with 59T dianrs a 1170 dinars per dollar and a $65B USD GDP, to do a 10x RV you would have to (e.g.) double GDP (doable) and reduce the 59T dinars by 5 to say 12T, that is a had thing to do. To get to 100x let alone 1000x things have to be more extreme. So I don't see how RV's of that magnitude can happen.

[Rossenbos]

This Is My Very First Post.

Hey Vinnie from Amsterdam! Ben jij Nederlander?

The first fellow Dutchman I see here. How did you come to invest?

[orangkaya]

still waiting for RV..

[keepmwlknfny]

They can't RI.....the situation is much different then it was 20 years ago.....if they RI to the 3 dollar range there will be a lop\rd first....

[jv1054]

As i see it Iraq can't RI like Kuwait did. Kuwait's currency did not devalue to zero then get replaced. Iraq's old money with sadaam face is worthless and can't do an RI. Perhaps i do not know what i am talking about but maybe someone can straighten me out if i am wrong?

[drlewis]

When the dinar was devalued, it was a war torn country with little to no oil production.... how can you say it is the same now as when it was devalued??? They have signed multi billion dollar contracts with with companies like bp, shell.. just to name a couple. Jg167, you talk on this forum with such confidence, as if you talk with shabibi himself, you act as if nothing has changed in Iraq, since the dinar was devaled? Don't meen to call you out, but you talk with such assurance that this investment is bad, one can't help but wonder, do you own dinar?

[Vinnie Hollis]

Hey Vinnie from Amsterdam! Ben jij Nederlander?

The first fellow Dutchman I see here. How did you come to invest?

I Am Not Dutch I Am Just In Amsterdam Visiting My Friend Who Is Doing Study Abroad

I Play Professional Basketball For The NBDL and I had Some Extra Cash So I Took A Risk

Only Been Invested Since January

[OhioTom1]

Vinnie.. Here is my two cents.. I bought in 06.. been studying and reading... If the head of the CBI.. Dr. Shabibbi is communicating a possible LOP.. I think he has more knowledge than all the gurus in Dinar LaLa Land. It "appears" they will remove 3 zeros... we then have a chance of an increase in the value of the dinar.

The big question is.. how much will the IMF allow them to increase the value. Keep in mind.. forget the rumors, forget the gurus who have been wrong for years.

Use common sense... no country is allowed to simply revalue their currency; Iraq is no different. Yes, they have POTENTIAL, but they will have to earn it...just like everybody else. Their are multiple countries that have great natural resources but have unstable, corrupt governments; all of them want to increase the value of their native currency but the IMF will not recognize them or allow them to revalue until they earn it. Think Mexico, Sudan, Russia, etc.

Let's hope Iraq gets their act together and increases their GDP, decreases debt, drastically reduces unemployment, increases imports, exports, builds infrastructure to support a vibrant economy, stabilize and provide secure and safe banking practices, etc etc.

Hang on ... it will take time but the ride will be educational and informative.

[Vinnie Hollis]

So If They LOP Im Screwed.. I Only Have Physical Dinar

[lov]

hi vinnie welcome to dv.

[keepmwlknfny]

So If They LOP Im Screwed.. I Only Have Physical Dinar

It wouldn't matter if you have physical bills or if you had it in an electronic account like warka....they are both affected in the same manner.....

[anothernewbie]

This Is My Very First Post. No Bank Crap Or RV CLAIMS

But I HAve One Question.. I Know That A LOP/ReDenominate Is On Alot OF Folks Mind But Im Think that A RI not RV Would Most Likely Be The Best Situation For IRAQ.

Would And RI Be less Confusing and time consuming as a RV or RD?

PLEASE DONT BASH ME OR SHAME ME

Welcome to DV Vinnie, fasten your seat belt!!

[DREAMER13]

I am not sure if I understood this correctly but if it were to RI we would not have to pay taxes if this is correct then there is very little chance of an RI as "o" needs our tax money to pay for his overspending so the way I see it is RD or RV so "O" gets his money please correct me if I am wrong.

[jg167]

When the dinar was devalued, it was a war torn country with little to no oil production.... how can you say it is the same now as when it was devalued???

I didn't say that (did i?). I said that it is NOT the case that the dinar was devalued (its pegged rate changed) to lower its value while economic factors remain the same, economic factors were very different mostly due to printing trillions of dinars.

They have signed multi billion dollar contracts with with companies like bp, shell.. just to name a couple. Jg167, you talk on this forum with such confidence, as if you talk with shabibi himself,

Yea Shabbs and I go way back! :-) . But seriously I'm just using the docs on the CBI's web site and a little arithmetic. Here is what it says about the history of the dinar (in part)

By 1987 the banking system consisted of the Central Bank, the Rafidain Bank, the Agricultural, Industrial, and Real Estate banks. A 5 percent devaluation reduced the value of the dinar to US$3.2169, the official rate which remained until the Gulf War, although in late 1989, the black market rate was reported to be 1.86 dinars for US$1.

1990 - 2003

After the Gulf War in 1991, and due to the economic blockade, the previously used Swiss printing technology was no longer available. A new, inferior quality notes issue was produced. The previous issue became known as the Swiss dinar and continued to circulate in the Kurdish region of Iraq. Due to excessive government printing of the new notes issue, the dinar devalued quickly, and in late 1995, US$1 was valued at 3,000 dinars.

So we see that what devalued the dinar was excessive printing by Saddam. It was not the current Iraq war that did this. Back when the dinar was (claimed by Saddam) to be worth $3.22 or whatever it was, there were 1000x less dinars in circulation and Iraq's M2 was at least in the same magnitude as it is now ($50B USD or so). Iraq's GDP will likely rise fast, but even the Saudi's GDP is only something like $400B. Iraq's entire oil supply in the ground is estimated to be worth about $14T USD (at $100/barrel).

you act as if nothing has changed in Iraq, since the dinar was devaled? Don't meen to call you out, but you talk with such assurance that this investment is bad, one can't help but wonder, do you own dinar?

Sure things have changed but a 1000x RV is out of the question in my view. Yes I own dinar's, I leaped before I looked based on advise from someone else. I wish I had not done so and am trying to exit this investment. http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=250860031460&ssPageName=STRK:MESELX:IT#ht_500wt_907 bid high, bid often! :-) Edited July 26, 2011 by jg167

[jg167]

I am not sure if I understood this correctly but if it were to RI we would not have to pay taxes if this is correct then there is very little chance of an RI as "o" needs our tax money to pay for his overspending so the way I see it is RD or RV so "O" gets his money please correct me if I am wrong.

I'm not a tax expert, but I'd be surprised if the US tax code would treat a foreign RI differently than an RV, unless you can show that you bought the currency back at its original value and hence are exchanging it for what you paid for it. None of us are in that boat presumably. An RD has no tax consequences, other than perhaps increasing your transactions costs if you have to exchange or new bills that you still plan on holding for future appreciation.

[hoopdog]

They can't RI.....the situation is much different then it was 20 years ago.....if they RI to the 3 dollar range there will be a lop\rd first....

Says who? The word Can't associated with the Dinar, just doesn't belong. Does it?

[keepmwlknfny]

Says who? The word Can't associated with the Dinar, just doesn't belong. Does it?

Unfortunately I think it can be associated with dinar in this instance LOL......after 20 years of high inflation, excessive currency printing and economical changes in the country, you CAN'T just all of a sudden put the currency right back to where it used to be.....