WHY IS THIS SO HARD TO UNDERSTAND?

[Legolas]

WHY IS IT SO HARD TO UNDERSTAND? (and why won’t the gurus address the issue?)

Sonny’s quote:

sonny1, on 24 July 2011 - 06:50 PM, said:

I agree from time to time, i dont like answering questions, there always the same negative question, they get tiring. your guy jmw...look at his posts they are all lop posts, why does he come here? seriously, to waste his and others time? all they say is m1-m2 how can they cover it. they are forgetting that when the release new-smaller notes there has to be a new rate, or it defeats the purpose of carrying less cash. it gets tiring...............

Read more:

Many of us have tackled the RD/RV issue numerous times on this forum, and explained it in terms which nearly anyone can understand. YET, as many times as I’ve asked, not ONE of the so-called gurus has attempted to address or refute the possibility that this very logical scenario might be possible. Why is that? I don’t get it. The only thing I ever see from them is the same stock answer we’ve been seeing for more than 3 years now…….”A lop is not possible.” Well DUH! Those of us who have put forth the RD/RV scenario AGREE with that statement. “There has to be a new rate, or it defeats the purpose of carrying less cash.” That part is simple, so why is the rest of the position so hard to understand?

The simple reason that the M1/M2 issue would seem to be so important is that it involves 59 TRILLION Dinars. All a person has to do is go right next door to Kuwait and look at their M1/M2, comparing it to that of Iraq. Even if you don’t understand the meaning and significance of the “M” factors, you can see the glaring difference. Kuwait has an M2 of of roughly 25 BILLION Dinars and a Dinar value of $3.64 – the value many are hoping to see in the IQD. The M2 of Iraq is more than 2,000 TIMES that number.

Is it really THAT difficult to understand why people would question how a country with 59 TRILLION Dinars outstanding can have the same value as a country with only 25 BILLION? Unless I’m just blind, this is pretty simple math and logic.

The answer would seem to be really simple. They can’t. SOMEHOW, the number of IQD in circulation HAS to be reduced from TRILLIONS to BILLIONS. Logically, it would be done by removing three zeros from the notes, making a 25,000 IQD note a 25 IQD note with the value remaining the same. THEN, they simultaneously increase the value to whatever new rate they want to apply, whether that be a small increase to $1.00 per IQD or a larger increase to $3+.

At a new rate of $1/IQD, most of us would be close to breaking even. At $3/IQD we would roughly triple our investment. It’s not rocket science or nuclear physics. OBVIOUSLY, this is not the end result we were led to believe was going to occur. But we already know that the gurus have been wrong, and the pumpers have been lying to us 100% of the time. So WHY is this very logical scenario so hard to accept, and WHY won’t the gurus address it?

We should ask ourselves: IF there were really plans to increase the value of the IQD from 1/10 of a cent to as much as $1-$3+ Dollars, (1,000 to 3,000+ times its current value) would Iraq really be talking about it repeatedly for such a long period of time, if at all? Wouldn’t that (and hasn’t that) increase speculation to even more insane levels than has already occurred? Why would they do that? Why would they allow BILLIONS of IQD to be exported and sold every month to as many as millions of investors planning to make MILLIONS of Dollars each at the expense of Iraq? Simple answer: They wouldn’t! After 8 years, it should be very clear now that they intend to do EXACTLY what they’ve said they are going to do. Remove the three zeros and increase the value of the Iraqi Dinar……..which is EXACTLY what the RD/RV scenario described here is stating. WHAT they intend to do should now be pretty clear. WHEN they intend to do it is not quite as clear.

Like everyone else, I would very much like to believe that every $1,000 I spent on IQD is going to become $1-$3+ MILLION Dollars overnight. But until I hear a logical explanation of how it’s going to happen, and why the RD/RV doesn’t make a lot more sense, I no longer believe it’s possible, and if it IS, why won’t one of the so-called experts explain it? All we keep hearing is the tired line: “no lop, no lop, no lop.” But this scenario IS NOT A LOP, so they need a new line, and a new explanation. Most importantly, why do so many people get angry and throw negatives when we try to get that explanation? Inquiring minds want to know.

Edited July 25, 2011 by Legolas

[Tahoe]

Great post..... I've always wondered the same.

[OhYeah]

me too

we've had too much time close to the edge to think about the possibles

[minichaser]

The "LOP" RV is a high possibility. People do not want to address the issue because that is not what they want to hear. GURUS are pumpers and salesmen either for the dinar or for investments of post RV. I personally would love to see a RV less the lop but in reality I do not feel that will happen, at least with a high RV rate.

[acceb75]

This is a great argument and it does make sense, but doesn't it go against what Shabibi said which was that the removal of the zeroes wouldn't affect the value of the currency and that the notes with the zeroes and without the zeroes would coexist?

I'm not doubting your theory I just want a little further explanation.

[Dalite]

This is a great argument and it does make sense, but doesn't it go against what Shabibi said which was that the removal of the zeroes wouldn't affect the value of the currency and that the notes with the zeroes and without the zeroes would coexist?

I'm not doubting your theory I just want a little further explanation.

PRE RD

1000 dinar @ 1170 Dinar per Dollar

After RD

1 dinar @ 1.17 Dinar per Dollar

The RD divides both the note and exchange rate by 1000

Old 1000 dinar note = new 1dinar note

Both coexist, with the same value.

1,000, 5,000, 10,000 and 25,000 notes are removed from circulation when they hit the CBI.

all new currency bears Kurdish language.

Currency is then properly valued. Past inflated value removed by RD. Currency then can appreciate under the control of CBI, to match market forces.

To achieve dedollarization, the rate of 1170:1 can be allowed by CBI to float up to 1000:1, prior to RD (1000/1000=1), which will yield a 1:1 Dinar:Dollar ratio.

OR

CBI can announce a $.14 increase in the dollar side of the exchange rate ($.86 + $.14 = $1.00) and have a concurrent RD With RV.

[Dalite]

Legolas,

As always, excellent post.

Like you I don't want to see millions end up as thousands, but the logic is very difficult to deny.

I am sure we will be asked to leave, again, probably multiple times.

Also, I am increasingly concerned for the future of those that cannot conceptualize a different reality posed by those who are honest and rational, while willing to argue with conviction to defend the views of others that continue to lead them astray; some for profit.

Who knows, maybe Shabibi is ready to retire and will RI at $3.22 + 20%.

He doesn't have to live there, and probably has made enough to retire comfortably and never look back.

I don't see the market ever accepting that rate, and see no chance of other countries honoring that rate, but it would meet the goals of many that aren't concerned about trivial matters such as that.

Time will certainly sort it all out.

[acceb75]

PRE RD

1000 dinar @ 1170 Dinar per Dollar

After RD

1 dinar @ 1.17 Dinar per Dollar

The RD divides both the note and exchange rate by 1000

Old 1000 dinar note = new 1dinar note

Both coexist, with the same value.

1,000, 5,000, 10,000 and 25,000 notes are removed from circulation when they hit the CBI.

all new currency bears Kurdish language.

Currency is then properly valued. Past inflated value removed by RD. Currency then can appreciate under the control of CBI, to match market forces.

To achieve dedollarization, the rate of 1170:1 can be allowed by CBI to float up to 1000:1, prior to RD (1000/1000=1), which will yield a 1:1 Dinar:Dollar ratio.

OR

CBI can announce a $.14 increase in the dollar side of the exchange rate ($.86 + $.14 = $1.00) and have a concurrent RD With RV.

OK but how does this scenario help the iraqi citizens, and if this were the case why are all of the predators in iraq trying to get unsuspecting citizens to sell their dinar for dollars if their returns will be negligible?

Again, not dobting, just asking for explanation.

[Dalite]

OK but how does this scenario help the iraqi citizens, and if this were the case why are all of the predators in iraq trying to get unsuspecting citizens to sell their dinar for dollars if their returns will be negligible?

Again, not dobting, just asking for explanation.

The dealers understand numbers and spreads.

The citizens, not so much.

The dealers take advantage of the uncertain mood on the street, and offer the the stronger Dollar for what is perceived to be a weaker Dinar. They buy at a discount, understanding that even with a RD, the CBI intends to reach parity with the dollar and there will be profit on buying and reselling later.

As far as the citizen' benefit, since the whole process of an RD is revenue neutral, there is no loss to them. The benefit is a stronger currency that will increase in buying power and invite investment in Iraq to bring them things they need, at a reasonable price.

Making a Dinar equal to a dollar eases transactions, will eventually eliminate the street's dependency on the Dollar, and restores confidence, worldwide, in the strength of the dinar.

I am not personally thrilled at these possible outcomes, but it is the logical choice.

The CBI has been telegraphing RD for a long time; the FOREX market anticipates RD.

Unfortunately, the only ones selling RV are the Currency Dealers and their Pumpers.

Even the banks have either stopped selling, or attempted to project Dinar sales for travel only.

[Legolas]

Dalite has already answered Aceb75's questions as well or better than I could, so I won't repeat them. The only thing I would add is that one of the original reasons for the re-denomination was to simplify accounting and banking. Counting notes with the three zeros is obviously a nightmare. Most "calculators" can't even do it once the total exceeds one million. Removing the zeros makes that process MUCH simpler and more similar to the notes of other countries, including the Dollar.

I had originally made this post in the "Opinions" or "Questions" forum, but it was immediately moved to "LOP Talk" with no trace of it remaining, with the normal "moved" notation. No matter how many times you point out that this is NOT lop talk, many either still don't get it, or don't want the masses to read and understand it. It's unfortunate. This post doesn't belong in lop talk.

Edited July 25, 2011 by Legolas

[Dalite]

Until you can deprogram others to stop looking at a legal, documented financial procedure, and seeing a sex change without anesthesia, you just won't get much response.

The folks who put together the scam part of marketing the resale of Dinar had a good concept of the study of Semantics.

They also applied the Hegelian Principle to create a mindset that is so ingrained in the belief of something they instinctively know is unlikely that they can not only ignore reality, but feel it is negative to acknowledge the existence of a more logical outcome; one that has been telegraphed by the only faction authorized to change the value of the currency..

The ultimate appreciation of the Dinar is no scam.

Unfortunately, the MLM. Cottage industry of selling on spread, and utilizing commissioned sales people in the field part of the Dinar world is the reason that the Dinar is seen as a scam.

LOP is taking by force. It is right up there with Rape, Castration, Beheading, Body Mutilation.......

Fortunately, it has nothing to do with legitimate financial operations...

The connotation is so negative, that it has replaced the lexicon of the actual procedure; intentionally, to prevent the carney's "marks" from understanding the alternatives...

So, this is why all conversation of the announced plans of the CBI ends up in a forum section that is convenient to ignore.

Trust me, it wasn't moved there by mistake.

A realistic alternative; one that would show true integrity, as well as a desire to distance oneself from the dark side of Dinar ownership would be to rename the section "RD Talk".

But, we don't make the rules....

[Nelg]

There has always been a possibility of a "LOP" as we call it. Iraq can do whatever it wants to do with its money. The contingency is there but that is why this is a speculative investment. That should have been clear at the beginning. But with all the negative in this economy and the funk most of the dinar investor get in when they consider their financial straight, the presentation of a depleted hope further puts them in depression. Denial of the possibility of a LOP is their defense and it doesn't make any difference how logical and rationalistic the presentation. Yes, they need to hear it for their own preparation.

People are looking for hope and the RV presents a hope that they can be financially healed. Personally, I've read the arguments. I understand the possibilities. I just don't want to be bothered reading through the same old stuff and getting depressed. I prefer HOPE.

[acceb75]

OK so when and if they do this what would the rate look like?

[Aqua Dude]

Iraqs M2 is 12% and total dinar is 30 trillion...that means they have 3.6 trillon...not 50 trillion like you tried to say.....get your facts str8

its funny how all the people on this thread actualyl believe you!!! HA!

hilarious!

i have proof......nothing in your post shows no proof.....want proof of my statement?....just ask!!!

...and i'll shut your lies down quickly!

Edited July 25, 2011 by Aqua Dude

[GinaG]

It's not only the guru's, my husband keeps saying the same old lop story without him even thinking about it, it just comes out! He does know better, but it is how his brain can only figure it out.

[acceb75]

Iraqs M2 is 12% and total dinar is 30 trillion...that means they have 3.6 trillon...not 50 trillion like you tried to say.....get your facts str8

its funny how all the people on this thread actualyl believe you!!! HA!

hilarious!

i have proof......nothing in your post shows no proof.....want proof of my statement?....just ask!!!

...and i'll shut your lies down quickly!

Yes please, I would like to see both sides of this so I can make an educated opinion.

[HopefulTxn]

Iraqs M2 is 12% and total dinar is 30 trillion...that means they have 3.6 trillon...not 50 trillion like you tried to say.....get your facts str8

its funny how all the people on this thread actualyl believe you!!! HA!

hilarious!

i have proof......nothing in your post shows no proof.....want proof of my statement?....just ask!!!

...and i'll shut your lies down quickly!

Really? Try comparing whatever it is you think you have with the CBI's posted financials which clearly state their M1 and M2 levels, which also matches the levels stated in Iraq's letter of intent to the IMF back in March.

http://www.cbi.iq/documents/key%20financial.xls

And their M2 level is lastly reported to be 59 trillion dinar. If you have something that shows different, by all means share it. However since you stated that their M2 was 12%, it appears that you are looking at a growth factor rather than M2 level itself.

Edited July 25, 2011 by HopefulTxn

[Aqua Dude]

for iraqs M2 go here: http://cbi.iq/

look at the "Economic Data" section

notice when the M2 was updated for: MAY

so that means the most recent M2, July....is most likely lower.....just FYI...about two weeks ago the M2 was 15%...so you go figure....i figure true M2 as of today is probably 7-9%

for the actuall amount of Dinars that Iraq has printed just look that this article that has come out TODAY

Advisor to the Central Bank Surprised the Draft Decision to Delay Change Currency

July 24, 2011

Follow-up - and babysit -

Surprised at the appearance of the central bank adviser Mohammed Saleh, "deciding to delay a project to change the currency of Iraq by the executive and legislative branches," stressing that "the project will come out of economic problems and conflicts in Iraq."

He attributed the benefit of "reasons to change the Iraqi currency was the result of inflation happening in Iraq as well as to improve the value of the Iraqi currency," calling "the government to speed up the Iraqi currency to the feminine and re-structure to facilitate cash transactions and projects."

He stressed "the need for feminine Iraq because the Iraqi currency has today [30] trillion Iraqi dinars." He explained "with the growth of the economy will grow this money, and therefore these figures are enriching the same rights and the same property, while the figures will be Mrhqh, and commensurate with, or facilitate the creation of a monetary reform facilitator and easy."

And put on the timing of the coin, and whether it will precede the process of removing the zeros between the benefit that "the coin will be within the structure of currency and within the existing project and will be the currency after deletion of zeros from the currency paper."

He explained that "the end of the coin is to cover the transaction currency, considering the small groups of fast trading, especially as the age of the coin longer than cash, as well as that coin will be the proof of the strength of the Iraqi currency."

Saleh called on to "encourage and support this step as it positively affect the Iraqi economy."

And we are talking some time ago in the Iraqi media regarding the change of currency, and issuing a new currency, and is noted that there are changes will occur in the form of new Iraqi currency, including the removal of zeros, and the inclusion of the Kurdish language to the Arabic language in the currencies.

The central bank decided to introduce coins as part of his plan to restructure the currency, which requires government approval and the Council of Representatives for a strategic plan that it will contribute in supporting the Iraqi dinar's value in financial trading. /

M. J

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.aspx?ref=SERP&br=ro&mkt=en-US&dl=en&lp=AR_EN&a=http%3a%2f%2fwww.alrayy.com%2f27319.htm%2f

[Dalite]

Iraqs M2 is 12% and total dinar is 30 trillion...that means they have 3.6 trillon...not 50 trillion like you tried to say.....get your facts str8

its funny how all the people on this thread actualyl believe you!!! HA!

hilarious!

i have proof......nothing in your post shows no proof.....want proof of my statement?....just ask!!!

...and i'll shut your lies down quickly!

Unfortunately, the CBI published figures support the M2 of 59 trillion.

I am sure Shabibi would like to see your proof; that way, he correct the spreadsheet available for download at the CBI website.

I don't find it funny at all that you haven't taken the time to look at it before embarrassing yourself..

The aggregates spreadsheet shows approximately 24 Trillion in Circulation, and 3 Trillion in bank accounts. You may want to square the CBI away on that while you are at it..

You can bring your intel up to speed here: http://cbi.iq/index.php?pid=Statistics

Cheers!

[Aqua Dude]

Really? Try comparing whatever it is you think you have with the CBI's posted financials which clearly state their M1 and M2 levels, which also matches the levels stated in Iraq's letter of intent to the IMF back in March.

http://www.cbi.iq/documents/key%20financial.xls

And their M2 level is lastly reported to be 59 trillion dinar. If you have something that shows different, by all means share it. However since you stated that their M2 was 12%, it appears that you are looking at a growth factor rather than M2 level itself.

I see the data within the link you provided, very interesting....however that information isn't very clear...the 34 trillion m2 is very close to what the article is stating........too much confusion if u ask me

[acceb75]

I realy don't undertand the whole M factor thing at all, but when I went to that CBI link, the only data I could find was 2009 at the latest.

[Dalite]

OK so when and if they do this what would the rate look like?

They have announced varying dates for beginning and completion.

The end of 2012 seems to be the target.

An RD would create a rate of 1.17 dinar to the dollar.

Indications from the article show the desire to reach parity of 1:1, as indicated in the previous replies.

[acceb75]

OK I found it....................nevermind my last post.

They have announced varying dates for beginning and completion.

The end of 2012 seems to be the target.

An RD would create a rate of 1.17 dinar to the dollar.

Indications from the article show the desire to reach parity of 1:1, as indicated in the previous replies.

OK thanks.

[HopefulTxn]

Aqua Dude, that is the GROWTH RATE from last year.

M2 growth (YoY): May 2011 12.0%

If you look at the link provided earlier and just remember that everything is calculated in billions it becomes quite easy to read. It is simply a balance sheet.

Edited July 25, 2011 by HopefulTxn

[acceb75]

OK I' m starting to understand this.

The higher their M2 the higher their inflation, is that right?