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Sunday Afternoon Opinions @ 5:30 PM CDT - 7/26/2020

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Good Afternoon Dinar Vets, here's several opinions & comments that might be of interest to you.  Remember, no one really knows what will happen, or when. They are simply stating their opinions based on what  they perceive to be happening in Iraq.  :twothumbs: RON



*** Jeff   I've been in this 11 years since '09.  This is the first year that they've never approved an operating budget since I've been in this...what they're telling you is that the rate change is married to the budget.  That's one of the main things you're looking for.  And remember Iraq has to have stability.  Meaning Kurdistan and Baghdad have to reach an agreement...the US requested to have the UN come in and work with both Baghdad and Kurdistan to resolve their differences...they have to reach that agreement in order for the rate change to go international...


***  Pimpy  This looks like a huge International movement.  This is what we want.  We know that Iraq is going to be the doorway to do major business over in the Middle East.  There's a lot of business opportunities over there.  They've been war torn for quite some time...a lot of infrastructure needs to be dealt with...


*** Militiaman  ...the theory of  [the rate change/RV] being out into September is not being supported yet imo one bit.  If you have links to support the view they will extend reforms out to September with fresh information, then please bring it in. Love to see it. In the mean time, we are imo watching the live progress on many fronts, not just Iraqs...


*** Pimpy  Article:   "Ministerial Roundtable discussions express support for Iraqi government economic reforms" ...This article is long but I can tell you this, if they have "white papers" for all these different files, they're going to be all presented in September of this year...There's a lot of discussion about, are the rate changes in this "white paper"?  A lot of people seem to be pointing that direction.  I haven't seen anything that says that the rate change is in the white papers but that doesn't mean it's not in the white papers.  I'm looking for something a little bit different.  I'm looking for the international community to once again...recognize the sovereignty of Iraq.  And as you guys know in order to be a sovereign county you have to have your own currency.  Iraq does have its own currency, I get that but they need the restrictions lifted off it so we can see them on the Forex once again...



Edited by ronscarpa
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    • By ronscarpa
      Remember, no one really  knows what will happen, or when. They're simply stating their opinions based on what  they perceive to be happening in Iraq. RON 
        *** Walkingstick *** The CBI and the GOI are now going to put advertisements everywhere.  On billboards, commercials on television, they'll put them in the newspaper, they'll have pictures of the new small category notes, all of this information and that they'll be a new exchange rate for this currency's basically down to weeks.   
        *** Petra *** The Kurds sent a message to Baghdad saying you have our approval.  We approve the budget now implement it.  And that's a quote.  We approve the budget we are now ordering you and directing you to implement it.  They didn't say implement in the next 25 days.  They didn't say implement in 2 weeks.  It said implement now.  I don't know what else to say about got to move.  You've got to do something.  You've got to go...we've never been in this position before.  There's always been reason and excuses of why it hasn't happened.  But now it's at the doorstep.  It's right there...we're very excited about where we're at.

        *** Frank26 *** We now have a budget for Iraq.  It's official.  This is the first budget I've seen in Iraq in my lifetime...that's extremely important...the main thing is it's now published in an official public venue the gazette.  What's the rate in that budget? ...1460.  It would have been illegal to release the budget with any other rate of 1460...right now the official exchange rate is 1460.  Period.  End of anytime they can retro the exchange rate back to January first...the CBI is going to change the rate 1 to 1 and the budget will go retroactive 1 to 1 too...the budget is not legal until it is in the gazette.  It's never been in the gazette.  It's in the gazette ladies and gentleman so NOW the change of the Iraq dinar exchange rate is game on!

        *** Mnt Goat *** Article: "ADVISOR AL-KAZEMI: FLOATING THE CURRENCY LEADS TO THE COLLAPSE OF THE IRAQI MARKET"  Salih is referring to dangers if they floated the dinar within Iraq using the program rate not reinstating and then floating it as an internationally traded currency on FOREX. The finance committee keeps pushing for an internal float. So what he is really saying is that if they are going to float the currency then first reinstate it and peg it to a “basket” of currencies for stability.   *** Militiaman *** Saleh...obviously said this today for a reason.  He's talking about not floating the currency.  He's in a sense saying we're not floating the currency but we're going to do something possibly different...he's saying that for a reason because this next stage is going to be very short and he'll need to have communicated what he's thinking.  Sometimes he tells you the opposite...they tell you what they're not going to this particular case  it sounds like he's got it sorted that...he's not necessarily going to float the currency...I'm not saying it's 100% right but the implications is it should be a strong sustainable exchange rate...
    • By ronscarpa
      Remember, no one really  knows what will happen, or when. They're simply stating their opinions based on what  they perceive to be happening in Iraq. RON 
      *** Breitling *** People can say whatever they want.  But you're sitting here watching somebody build a race car.  You ask them are you going to go racing?  Or are you building a race car?  [They answer] 'No!'  Well you have a chassis there.  You've got the biggest engine I've ever seen, 6 point harness to keep you in in case you roll, you've got roll bars.  What are you going to use it for?  Doesn't make any sense.  You have to watch what they're doing physically...They're not always going to reveal exactly what it is they're going to do because they can't because if they do say they're going to revalue and the word gets out in Iraq they [the citizens] are not going to spend their money.  It's going to cause a huge economic crisis...they're trying to prop up their own currency.  That has not changed and will not change.  And that is exactly what Iraq is doing and you can have confidence in it...

      *** Frank26 *** There's a new rate coming...there's no need to talk about printing the currency.  There's no need talking about the HCL. There's no need to talk about the white papers...A month ago the articles were saying they lowered the value of our currency...and it's going to stay that way for 4 years...everybody got discouraged...that's beyond stupid.  None of that is logical.  Then a little over 2 weeks we told you they were going to talk to you about the 3 zero notes and then they're going to talk to you about the 3 zero exchange rate.  For the last 2 1/2 weeks articles...are saying they lowered the exchange rate and that was a dumb thing to do and we should increase where's all the negativity?  It was all garbage.  It was all rumors.
      *** Militiaman *** I think you have every right to be excited about what's going on.  I'm looking forward to seeing this final push for them to get this thing done.
      *** Frank26 *** The budget is the key.  The budget is the heartbeat of what's going is absolutely erroneous to believe the 1460 rate that they have right now is going to be the permanent rate for this budget...the tell tale sign is the international world pouring into Iraq.  That's the biggest clue...article this week came out and said 'hey stop with all the rumors and negativity talk.  We can retroactive this anytime we want.'  Why would they bring that subject up?  Because that's what their intentions are.  Why would the CBI and the GOI say this?  ...we are beyond very close...

      *** Petra *** We all know the budget was passed on the 31st and now the clock is ticking and the pressure is on...the heat is getting insurmountable that the CBI has got to make their move.  With that budget passed now all we're talking about is implementation... Many of the article today they used that word implementation, to implement, implement, begin, get going, let's move!

      *** Mnt Goat *** I am now being told by my CBI contact that they are moving ahead aggressively with the RV and will replace the older larger 3 zero notes very soon. This means to us RV time!  ...Let’s all hang on to our hats. This is going to be a very interesting month ahead. We could end up rich at the end of the ride.

      *** Kaperoni *** For those interested, over the weekend after being signed off by the Iraqi president the Gazette posted the 2021 budget despite objections from several political blocks. [Reposted]

    • By ronscarpa
      Remember, no one really  knows what will happen, or when. They're simply stating their opinions based on what  they perceive to be happening in Iraq. RON 

      *** Breitling *** Let's do a thought experiment.  Let's say you live in Iraq and you have a certain amount of currency.  They are not going to gain like you and I are.  Because we bought with U.S. dollars. That means we bought it at a tenth of a penny.  Well their economy is set up at a tenth of a penny.  In other words they didn't pay anything.  The currency was just given to them.  If you go buy a coke at a tenth of a penny [Or 1450 dinars] and the value goes up because there's a revaluation or they just simply corrected their currency - they're just going to move the decimal over.  Now it's just a dollar.  So now you have the currency that's a dollar and a coke that has the price tag that's a dollar...There's going to be a little bit of gain for them but not like you and I are going to get because we bought with the U.S. dollar.  That's a principle you have to understand.
      *** Pimpy *** There's obviously a lot of pressure to have the rate change take place in Iraq and it's coming from all angles.  Having said that, these reforms are doing exactly what they were supposed to do - help get Iraq back on their feet.  I know they were talking it's going to take three to five year.  I'm not seeing that.  They're actually moving at a much faster pace...

      *** Mnt Goat *** Article:"MEANING OF CURRENCY REVALUATION AND WHAT WILL HAPPEN IF IRAQ TAKES THIS PATH" Quote: "The act of altering the value of a nation’s currency relative to other currencies is typically influenced by market pressures. The pressure is now." The pressure is not going to end until the CBI completes the project to delete the zeros and the revaluation of the dinar against the dollar.

      *** Kaperoni *** ...we have spent the last eight plus years telling members the truth of how or if the dinar can ever appreciate in value. It's based on sound principles and the economic success of Iraq. There is no magic wand or overnight RV. There is no significant overnight RV, it's not how monetary policy works.

      *** Pimpy *** Obviously the more they grow the private sector the better the economy rebounds.  It it strengthen the currency...building up your foreign reserves assets helps the currency.  The GDP of your economy helps grow the currency.  We won't necessarily need to have some RI or RV called out.  There could be other things that happen that affect the value...that does not mean there won't be an RI or RV called.  That still might happen but there are other things we can be focused on that help our situation...
      *** Breitling *** What if somebody out there put an article out and says, 'hey we're going to revalue next month.'  What do you think the population in Iraq is going to do?  Do you think they go out and spend the dinars that they have?  No!  They'll squirrel it away.  It would literally shut their economy down.  That's why I tell people you're not going to find a magical article coming out of Iraq saying we're going to revalue in a month or two months or a week...Iraq is not telling everybody we're going to add a ton of value to this - it would ruin the supply times velocity of the Iraqi dinar.
      That's all for today Folks ... Blessings ... RON 
    • By ronscarpa
      Remember, no one really  knows what will happen, or when. They're simply stating their opinions based on what  they perceive to be happening in Iraq. RON 
      *** Pimpy *** One of the articles says that Al-Kazemi is going to appeal the 2021 budget.  What that has done is started all kinds of rumors in our nifty little arena of the Iraqi dinar.  People are like 'oh yeah they're going to change the rate again.'  Guys we don't know what they're going to do okay.  Is it possible?  Of course.  Anything is possible.  First things first...he wants to put in some amendments.  Nobody knows what those amendment are...people are saying that in there is going to be the rate change.  There's no proof of that anywhere.  Does that mean it won't happen?   No.  Does that mean it will happen?   NO.  That's the point.   We won't know until they do it...changes are coming.  We'll see what they are shortly.

        *** Mnt Goat *** We all need to relax and let this play out in Iraq. All the conversations now are about implementing the financial reforms, as listed in the “White Paper”.  ...We know that the White Paper states that the project to delete the zeros will be completed. So, it’s now on the radar, its documented and they can’t avoid it much longer. Oh… we know the budget is passed and ratified. We are just waiting for the publishing in the gazette. But will we get the RV once it’s in the gazette...No one knows for sure but I will say the IMF does want Iraq to get its act together and follow a budgetary process. It is now done. But the CBI has said noting about an RV anytime soon. Is this just a coverup for what they might do? ...So far the CBI is not advertising any rate change in the next 2 years. Yes, two years. Will it take that long?   *** Frank26 *** They will float it [the dinar].  And the reason why is because internally they have fixed it [fixed rate] and they will float it internationally...that float equals a middle eastern basket that the Iraqi dinar will be in there with the American dollar 1 to 1 and all of these other countries that are around the Middle East they're gonna pour into that basket...maybe 6,7,8 different countries...those other counties will also be 1 to 1 with the American dollar.   
    • By ronscarpa
      Remember, no one really  knows what will happen, or when. They're simply stating their opinions based on what  they perceive to be happening in Iraq. RON 
      *** Pimpy *** Article: "Al-Kazemi:  We have succeeded in stopping the waste and the great corruption in the Central Bank auction, and we will not stop" ...he seems to be doing what it takes to clean up Iraq and to get them back on their feet where they belong.  They are a rich country...unfortunately the corruption is so bad and people are so greedy...these are the types of things [Cleaning up corruption] I like.  It's a great reflection on the country when it comes to the international people...this is good.  We want to see the corruption being taken care of.

      *** Mnt Goat *** Article: "MEANING OF CURRENCY REVALUATION AND WHAT WILL HAPPEN IF IRAQ TAKES THIS PATH" Quote: "The act of altering the value of a nation’s currency relative to other currencies is typically influenced by market pressures. The pressure is now."   The pressure is not going to end until the CBI completes the project to delete the zeros and the revaluation of the dinar against the dollar.

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