Groovgal Chat: Dinar Specualtor 6/17/10

[k98nights]

June 17, 2010 · bunkhouse says to (13:17:49):

you said $3.22 to 1usd did you mean $3.22 usd to 1 IRQ

groovgal says to (13:18:37):

I heard that some actually became worried after reading my post. If you have been paying attention to Iraq, you’ll find that most has been completed

Munizd02 says to (13:18:40):

groovgal thank you for the lesson you made it a lot easier to understand really you did thanks

groovgal says to (13:19:09):

yes, bunk… I made a few errors in that post! It was six pages long… LOL

tdk says to (13:19:21):

not me more encouraged thank you

bunkhouse says to (13:19:30):

ok just checking

groovgal says to (13:19:32):

good tdk

groovgal says to (13:19:38):

Yes guardian..

bunkhouse says to (13:19:46):

thanks awesome job

guardian says to (13:19:53):

i think they’re too pickie, just get-r-done

groovgal says to (13:19:54):

the signing of the Agreement is an awesome move!

groovgal says to (13:20:01):

yw bunk…

flowergirl says to (13:20:04):

A great lesson for me GG!! thanks!

Preach says to (13:20:13):

aLL??? says to (13:20:27):

Bunkhouse, she was making me hungry LOL

groovgal says to (13:20:35):

lol guardian…

Roadrunner says to (13:21:11):

we’r all hungry all???

aLL??? says to (13:21:31):

that’s weird …, why did my “ll’s” go to caps?

aLL??? says to (13:21:53):

GG did you do that? You messin with me?

groovgal says to (13:22:03):

lol no

lifeisgood says to (13:22:10):

Great job on the areticle groovgal! Thanks!

perez says to (13:22:15):

gg,hi,do the current chain of events worldwide reguarding the financial statis of countries which may possibly re-value have very much bearing on the timing of the Iraq dinar?If so, why? Thanks

groovgal says to (13:22:19):

yw life! and thank you

IdaBuMan says to (13:22:48):

yes, great article gg.

IdaBuMan says to (13:23:13):

So, you say ASAP – what time-frame do you think that may be.

lifeisgood says to (13:23:21):

I sure hope you are right about 2.30 – 3+. I sure we all would love that range!! I sure would!

lifeisgood says to (13:23:33):

I’m*

Elkhunter55 says to (13:23:34):

I have read so much in the forum it’s all running together. Thanks GG for your explanation on the article it was great. What agreement did they sign?

groovgal says to (13:23:34):

perez… worldwide events? possibly RV.. I’m not sure I understand your question

groovgal says to (13:23:41):

thank you ida

wrestler says to (13:23:44):

hi gg, super job must have taken quite a while thanks

groovgal says to (13:24:07):

Ida… I don’t pick date hun… but I think we are in a VERY great window of opportunity

lifeisgood says to (13:24:21):

My brother-in-law has been saying 3.22 for about a year.

ArlingtonAZ says to (13:24:21):

GG i heard the imf is putting pressure on china to rv any connection to iraq?

groovgal says to (13:24:30):

lifeisgood, me too

groovgal says to (13:24:41):

it’s a good number life

lifeisgood says to (13:24:51):

I love that number!!

perez says to (13:24:53):

the finacial collasping of other countries economies

lifeisgood says to (13:25:24):

I’m guessing you have been very busy these days! It is good to see you chatting.

IdaBuMan says to (13:25:34):

Yee Hawww, GG called me hun. :-*

groovgal says to (13:25:36):

whew… okay arlington.. and perez… let me see if I can answer that

IdaBuMan says to (13:25:39):

lol

groovgal says to (13:25:41):

lolida

Elkhunter55 says to (13:26:01):

groovgal what agreement did they sign?

groovgal says to (13:26:24):

There is a tremendous amount of movement within the global financial sectors

groovgal says to (13:26:48):

most of this movement can be tracked through the media as well as the IMF or the summits that are taking place

Munizd02 says to (13:26:57):

groovegal do you think there will be a window for cashing in the large notes and thank you for that article you did make it easier to understand

groovgal says to (13:27:13):

muniz… let me answer this other question first

groovgal says to (13:27:38):

We have the Euro that is at risk right now

groovgal says to (13:28:27):

and we know that the Euro like the USD is used as an anchor for stabilizing currency baskets

groovgal says to (13:29:07):

Now, the economic situation that is occurring within the European Union is causing some upsets

groovgal says to (13:29:20):

and the IMF is talking about international bailouts

lifeisgood says to (13:29:50):

Is the IMF still low on funds to loan countries?

groovgal says to (13:29:50):

which according to my economic theories and my political stance I tend to disagree with but

groovgal says to (13:29:54):

it is a smart move

groovgal says to (13:30:08):

We also have China

groovgal says to (13:30:24):

Perez, I do know what you are speaking of

groovgal says to (13:30:35):

and I don’t wish to step on toes with that information

groovgal says to (13:30:57):

because I’m unsure if the author of that information was merely unclear about his thoughts

groovgal says to (13:31:15):

however,

groovgal says to (13:31:30):

I will say…

groovgal says to (13:31:42):

We know that the UN is controlled by the US

groovgal says to (13:31:54):

the IMF is apart of the UN

groovgal says to (13:32:03):

We know that the US

groovgal says to (13:32:25):

wants China to revalue it’s currency for trade purposes

groovgal says to (13:32:55):

So technically speaking

groovgal says to (13:33:05):

if we break down the tree of power here…

groovgal says to (13:33:15):

it is the US who is pressuring China to revalue

groovgal says to (13:33:28):

Now China has interesting or conflict with Vietnam

groovgal says to (13:33:36):

interest***

groovgal says to (13:33:55):

China has concerns over the low value of the VND

groovgal says to (13:34:10):

So China is placing pressure upon the VND to revalue

groovgal says to (13:34:18):

It is my OPINION

groovgal says to (13:34:48):

that China wishes Vietnam to show good faith by revaluing the VND before the Yuan

groovgal says to (13:35:35):

but my knowledge is limited in concern to the VND so please just see that as an opinion only based solely upon the information that I’ve seen

groovgal says to (13:36:07):

As for China’s influenence upon Iraq

groovgal says to (13:36:16):

Well, this is a tad tricky

groovgal says to (13:37:05):

We have to consider history here on a global scale

groovgal says to (13:37:11):

in some respects

groovgal says to (13:37:17):

to see if this sounds correct

groovgal says to (13:38:41):

the information that I’ve heard was the possibility of China owning 76% of Iraq oil and therefore has tremendous influence upon what they wish for Iraq to do

groovgal says to (13:38:53):

Iraqi***

ArlingtonAZ says to (13:39:42):

Wow im speechless thank you soo much

groovgal says to (13:39:52):

I’m curious if the figure of 76% was pertaining to purchasing contract of oil supply or if this was pertaining to actually owning Iraqi oil fields

groovgal says to (13:39:57):

yw Arlington

groovgal says to (13:40:32):

If we consider the possibility of China having contracts to purchase 76% of oil productio

groovgal says to (13:40:37):

production**

groovgal says to (13:40:42):

hang on sorry

Preach says to (13:41:06):

Yeah, how did they do that when we went in and kicked S out? Sounds like the US got screwed.

groovgal says to (13:41:50):

There is a possibility of this but why would have 76% of the oil production give you overt power as to the value of the IQD?

groovgal says to (13:42:21):

We have heard that China was purchasing land in Iraq and there was a bidding war awhile back

groovgal says to (13:43:16):

So, with this being said, we know that China own some Iraqi land but we also know that the law for foreigners to own domestic lands hasn’t been passed yet….

groovgal says to (13:43:32):

Now here is where I have conflict

groovgal says to (13:43:50):

If the author meant that China was to own 76% of Iraqi land

groovgal says to (13:43:57):

I cannot see this as accurate

groovgal says to (13:44:12):

If we consider the global leaders

groovgal says to (13:44:30):

we know that Europe and the US are the major powers

groovgal says to (13:44:39):

We know that China is communist

groovgal says to (13:45:07):

we know that China has been trying for decades to make whatever plays they can to

groovgal says to (13:45:21):

reach the power status of Europe and the United States

groovgal says to (13:45:36):

Yet, the US and Europe will not allow China to have too much power

groovgal says to (13:45:44):

So,

groovgal says to (13:45:49):

we also know that war is money

groovgal says to (13:46:06):

We know that Europe and the US were the major brokers of the Iraqi war

groovgal says to (13:46:17):

We also know that Iraq is to be the new Kuwait

groovgal says to (13:46:29):

So why would the United States and Europe

groovgal says to (13:46:42):

allow China to own 76% of the land in Iraq

groovgal says to (13:46:46):

Also

groovgal says to (13:47:15):

We have to consider the political conflict

groovgal says to (13:47:31):

Iran has signed agreements with both China and Turkey

groovgal says to (13:47:40):

If we consider the geographical map

groovgal says to (13:47:55):

We know that doing so poses a threat to not only Iraq

groovgal says to (13:48:01):

but to Kuwait also

groovgal says to (13:48:21):

If China is signing agreements with Iran then it shows that China is making a move

groovgal says to (13:48:31):

to join Irans side and go against

groovgal says to (13:48:50):

the sanctions that have been placed by the UN, US, and Europe…

groovgal says to (13:48:59):

that is a major no no

groovgal says to (13:49:21):

So, having said this

groovgal says to (13:49:38):

we know that China is friends with Iran and Turkey

groovgal says to (13:50:01):

if China were to own 76% of the land in Iraq, do you not see how this could pose

groovgal says to (13:50:20):

as a major threat to not only toppling the possibility of democracy in Iraq

groovgal says to (13:50:34):

and possibly posing a greater threat to Kuwait?

groovgal says to (13:51:05):

So, in short

groovgal says to (13:51:27):

While China is and has been trying to influence Iraq in any way they can

groovgal says to (13:51:51):

I find it difficult to understand how they could be allowed to have so much influence

groovgal says to (13:51:58):

JMO… done

groovgal says to (13:51:59):

okie35 says to (13:52:04):

Thanks GG for your knowledge and opinions, we value them greatly.

groovgal says to (13:52:10):

yw okie

johnevans says to (13:52:17):

dang take it to the line girl thanks

groovgal says to (13:52:17):

just thinking allowed

in4fun says to (13:52:20):

thx gg

groovgal says to (13:52:26):

haha thanks john

groovgal says to (13:52:31):

you all are welcome

Tags: no tags

[ronscarpa]

Thanks Woody - great post (+)...!

RON

PS: see her Article I just posted at the same time you posted this...Great read...!

RON

[mythunter]

gg rocks with her understanding of everything going on. Thanks for the post Woody.

[quadraph0nic]

Wow her thoughts just highlighted something I've always wondered about, some kind of foreign investment act. I've seen the laws in articles but if they haven't been ratified that along with an HCL that truly benefits the people. that might be something we will be waiting on before an RV...

groovgal says to (13:43:16):

So, with this being said, we know that China own some Iraqi land but we also know that the law for foreigners to own domestic lands hasn’t been passed yet….

[KimberlyHanson]

I sure love those groovgal posts!

Thanks k98knights AKA Woody (and Ron and many others) for all the news, chats and info (and entertainment) you bring to DV!

[LOCOMOJO]

......I can assure you that China does NOT own 76% of Iraq, they are reported as having over 70% of drilling lease/contracts in operation there at present,... with the other contracts and offers on the table, China's drilling interests would drop to about 30% of all other countries lease/contracts in theater (if/when they are all honored and signed),.....there is not a provision for 'mineral rights' as we know it in the US, they drill on lease until production pays for the cost to drill,case and put to production, once paid for the first rights to purchase belong to them(China) they still have to pay Iraq for the oil ( at a shrewdly negotiated price I'm sure) especially if they also invest with Iraq for pipeline and roads to transport oil to the coast

[vegasjd]

Groovgal, thank you so much for these very informative posts. It is great being able to learn more about what has gotten us to this point, and what is needed to take us to RV . Your posts brighten our days.

Thanks...James

[hfdmedic]

Thnx K98 (+)

[lvbodyworker]

thanks GG. Great posts.

[TexaSwa]

Does anyone remember when it was "tied to the healthcare bill"? I think that has been my favorite so far.

[Charlie Echo]

There is more to the Iraqi Dinar than Iraq, China. As GG said, why would Europe and the US let China own 76% of Iraq.... Answer: They may not be able to stop them and the following is a reason why. Too much Sovereign debt. by Mike Larson

European Commission saw the light of day recently, thanks to some reporting from Bloomberg. It highlights an incredibly dangerous Catch-22 facing many sovereign nations — the "Snowball Scenario. "Suppose country A's economy goes into the tank. The government responds by borrowing boatloads of money and spending like mad on stimulus packages.

The markets allow it to go on for a while. But then investors start to get antsy about all the debt being added to the government's balance sheet. So they start dumping its bonds, driving prices lower and rates higher. That, in turn, forces the country to implement austerity measures to get its debt and deficit under control.

The problem?

Those moves send the economy BACK into the crapper! Government spending has to rise yet again to pay for things like unemployment insurance, new stimulus packages, and so on ... at the same time tax revenues fall. That drives debts and deficits even higher.

The end game in this snowball scenario? A sovereign default! And that's not just a theory. In fact ...

Snowballs Are Already Rolling Downhill in Spain, Greece, and Portugal

Spain is trying to slash its budget deficit from 11.2 percent to 9.3 percent in 2010 and 6 percent in 2011. Portugal wants to cut its deficit from 9.4 percent to 7.3 percent this year and 4.6 percent next year. They plan to do so by some combination of pension freezes, wage cuts, new taxes, and other measures.

But the European Commission, which is the executive arm of the European Union, says that probably won't be enough. Its conclusion?

"While the newly announced measures are significant and the targets imply impressive budgetary consolidation, more measures are needed to meet those targets." In plain English, the message is "Get even tougher! Crack down more! Slash spending! Raise taxes!"

But as the Commission admits, the governments it is counseling face "low GDP growth, poor competitiveness, stable or declining prices and wages and high real interest rates." So it's virtually impossible to avoid a "snowball effect on the government debt."

Bond traders aren't dumb. They can see this coming from a mile away. Yields on Spanish 2-year notes shot up recently, then eased a bit. But now they're rallying yet again — hitting a new cycle high just this week.

Spanish borrowing costs have skyrocketed from 1.51 percent in March to 3.29 percent, the highest in 17 months! It now costs more on a relative basis for Spain to borrow than it does the euro-area's main economy, Germany. And it's the highest that the 10-year Spanish/German yield spread has been since 1999 — when the euro currency debuted.

Portugal is seeing costs rise, too. It's paying 5.58 percent to borrow money for 10 years, up from 4.15 percent back in April.

Reports are surfacing that Spain may need a 250 billion euro ($307 billion) credit line from the International Monetary Fund, the European Union, and possibly the U.S. Treasury.

Naturally, policymakers are denying that anything is in the works. But what do you expect them to do? These guys said the same thing about Greece, claiming it wasn't at risk of defaulting. Then they pushed through a $135 billion bailout! In short, this sovereign debt crisis is playing out just like the private credit market crisis did before. It comes in waves — with periodic sharp drops triggered by some event, then some kind of bailout that makes everybody breathe a temporary sigh of relief, and finally yet another plunge as another hole appears in the dike. Don't get suckered in by the short-term rallies. This sovereign debt crisis is nowhere near over, and that means you have to stay cautious and safe in your investments.

There must be deals being made all over the world..... soon I hope.

[Charlie Echo]

Two Consequences of the Stimulus Programs

Washington Wants You to Ignore!

by Claus Vogt

Over the past two years, we've seen the largest stimulus policies the world has ever produced.

As a result, sovereign debt and central banks' balance sheet holdings have gone through the roof!

When a government and its central bank throw hundreds of billions in taxpayers' dollars at the financial markets and the economy you'll definitely see ...

Desired and Undesired

Consequences ...

The official desired short-term consequences include the huge stock market rally off the March 2009 lows and the economic rebound since mid-2009.

On the other hand, the undesired, longer-term consequences will often be swept under the rug by short-sighted politicians and central banks.

So today I want to focus on two of those undesired consequences, ones Washington wants you to ignore:

Undesired Consequence #1—

The Unstable Economy

The stock market rally since March 2009 has indeed been impressive. But according to many measures the economic rebound has been extremely weak ...

The easiest way to understand how weak this recovery has been is to look at the work of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).

Founded in 1920, the NBER is the nation's leading nonprofit, economic research organization dedicated to promoting a greater understanding of how the economy works. And it is the official arbiter of recessions in the U.S. — giving notice when their researchers determine a recession has begun and when it has finally ended.

And as recently as yesterday, the NBER has NOT declared an end to the recession that started in December 2007.

Especially troubling is the labor market ...

According to the Federal Reserve, the number of working Americans isn't any higher today than it was 10 years ago! Since Census figures show the U.S. population is growing by 2 to 3 million every year, this stagnation in job growth is a giant roadblock for an economy struggling to dig out of a recession.

Undesired Consequence #2—

Weakening Financial Indicators

At the same time some important leading economic indicators have begun to roll over again. The most obvious is the stock market, which has declined more than what is considered a normal 10 percent correction since its April high.

This has to be rated as an ominous sign.

Then the Conference Board's Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) started to turn down in April. The year-over-year percentage change declined to 10.2 percent from 11.5 percent.

As the Stimulus Fades

the Economy Loses Steam

I've just given you some of the early, but usually reliable, signs of a deteriorating economy. But you shouldn't be surprised about this sad development. The fact is, no matter how much money is thrown at the problem, the economy isn't getting any traction. Nor has it entered a self-sustaining recovery.

The economic rebound we've seen in the past months is just the short-term reaction to the unprecedented stimulus programs. And as the stimulus money fades away, so does the economic recovery — and so does the stock market rally.

This reading is still far from a recession warning. But it may very well be the turning point for this cycle. And history shows the LEI can decline very quickly after the turnaround is in.

Finally, there is the Economic Cycle Research Institute's (ECRI) Weekly Leading Index, another major leading indicator. It has just fallen to minus 3.5 percent — the lowest level in the last 10 months.

I've marked this level with a red horizontal line in the following chart. If it keeps falling, even by a little bit in the coming weeks, its message will be loud and clear: Double dip recession ahead!

[Jac]

Two Consequences of the Stimulus Programs

Washington Wants You to Ignore!

by Claus Vogt

Over the past two years, we've seen the largest stimulus policies the world has ever produced.

As a result, sovereign debt and central banks' balance sheet holdings have gone through the roof!

When a government and its central bank throw hundreds of billions in taxpayers' dollars at the financial markets and the economy you'll definitely see ...

Desired and Undesired

Consequences ...

The official desired short-term consequences include the huge stock market rally off the March 2009 lows and the economic rebound since mid-2009.

On the other hand, the undesired, longer-term consequences will often be swept under the rug by short-sighted politicians and central banks.

So today I want to focus on two of those undesired consequences, ones Washington wants you to ignore:

Undesired Consequence #1—

The Unstable Economy

The stock market rally since March 2009 has indeed been impressive. But according to many measures the economic rebound has been extremely weak ...

The easiest way to understand how weak this recovery has been is to look at the work of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).

Founded in 1920, the NBER is the nation's leading nonprofit, economic research organization dedicated to promoting a greater understanding of how the economy works. And it is the official arbiter of recessions in the U.S. — giving notice when their researchers determine a recession has begun and when it has finally ended.

And as recently as yesterday, the NBER has NOT declared an end to the recession that started in December 2007.

Especially troubling is the labor market ...

According to the Federal Reserve, the number of working Americans isn't any higher today than it was 10 years ago! Since Census figures show the U.S. population is growing by 2 to 3 million every year, this stagnation in job growth is a giant roadblock for an economy struggling to dig out of a recession.

Undesired Consequence #2—

Weakening Financial Indicators

At the same time some important leading economic indicators have begun to roll over again. The most obvious is the stock market, which has declined more than what is considered a normal 10 percent correction since its April high.

This has to be rated as an ominous sign.

Then the Conference Board's Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) started to turn down in April. The year-over-year percentage change declined to 10.2 percent from 11.5 percent.

As the Stimulus Fades

the Economy Loses Steam

I've just given you some of the early, but usually reliable, signs of a deteriorating economy. But you shouldn't be surprised about this sad development. The fact is, no matter how much money is thrown at the problem, the economy isn't getting any traction. Nor has it entered a self-sustaining recovery.

The economic rebound we've seen in the past months is just the short-term reaction to the unprecedented stimulus programs. And as the stimulus money fades away, so does the economic recovery — and so does the stock market rally.

This reading is still far from a recession warning. But it may very well be the turning point for this cycle. And history shows the LEI can decline very quickly after the turnaround is in.

Finally, there is the Economic Cycle Research Institute's (ECRI) Weekly Leading Index, another major leading indicator. It has just fallen to minus 3.5 percent — the lowest level in the last 10 months.

I've marked this level with a red horizontal line in the following chart. If it keeps falling, even by a little bit in the coming weeks, its message will be loud and clear: Double dip recession ahead!

This is exactly what Morris, Buffet, Rogers and others are saying. This is surely interesting economic future in which all must remain watchful. All of the biggies in the realm of economists claim that 'we can' come out unscathed and build wealth to boot. It appears that we cannot just leave that money lay in the bank but must work hard to protect it. in ways we never thought were options for the average American.

[nick s]

nice post Thanks

[trishberg]

Wow, this took the conversation in a whole different direction and answered questions I never knew to ask. Thanks for posting.

[automag]

Thanks Jac for the post. It certainly is something to consider very seriously especially when we get our RV. You are right to say we need to protect our new found assets and we will all need to study the issue with as much effort as we have trying to figure out the RV itself.

I have for a couple of years noticed that the talking heads on CNBC continually ask the "experts" about this or that when it comes to the economy's performance. I have heard all sorts of explanations about why it does what it does. However. The one thing that never seems to come up is right there in front of their faces. The fundamentals are out of balance. They marvel at the stock market this week and the lament about a drop the next and they always look stunned when things go awry. Huge stimulus packages and which by the way are from both political parties do nothing except what your post says. They distort the realities that exist on the ground. So you are right to extort all of us to protect and defend our boats when they come in because there are no guarantees and certainly no protections other than the ones we create.

Thanks again Jac. Great post and lots to think about!!