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Charlie Echo

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About Charlie Echo

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  • Birthday March 26

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  • Gender
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  • Location
    TN

Converted

  • Biography
    Commercial Insurance Agent/Farmer
  • Location
    TN
  • Interests
    Farming, Family
  • Occupation
    Risk Aversion

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  1. Oil Demand around the world is down and getting worse by the day. Iraq has once again waited until the worse time to RV. Now ... can they with the decreased demand globally... "We Can't Stop This": Japan Rolls Out New 'Harm Reduction' Policy Aimed At Limiting Virus-Related Deaths Germany Confirms First Coronavirus Case As CDC Warns Pandemic "No Longer A Question Of 'If', It's A Question Of 'When'": Live Updates
  2. After rejecting Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi's request to begin talks on the withdrawal of American troops, there are now more signs of the eroding ties between the two countries. The Wall Street Journal reports that according to Iraqi officials (yes, Iraq has anonymous sources too), the Trump administration warned Iraq this week that it risks losing access to a critical government bank account if Baghdad kicks out American forces. We are sure, to Schiff et al., that sounds a lot like 'quid pro quo', but how will they balance the need to hammer the president with their neocon/establishment desire to keep boots on the ground, whatever it takes? The warning regarding the Iraqi central bank account was conveyed to Iraq’s prime minister in a call on Wednesday, according to an official in his office, that also touched on the overall military, political and financial partnership between the two countries. When Iraq needs hard currency, its central bank can request a shipment of bills that it then distributes into the financial system through banks and currency exchange houses. While the country’s official currency is the dinar, U.S. dollars are commonly used. “The U.S. Fed basically has a stranglehold on the entire [Iraqi] economy,” said Shwan Taha, chairman of Iraqi investment bank Rabee Securities. The potential economic and financial fallout is weighing on Iraqi officials “Whenever you have any amicable divorce, you still have the worry about the children, pets, furniture and plants, some of which are sentimental,” said a senior Iraqi politician. The New York Fed, which can freeze accounts under U.S. sanctions law or if it has reasonable suspicion the funds could violate U.S. law, said it doesn’t comment on specific account holders, but as WSJ notes, this financial threat isn’t theoretical: The country’s financial system was squeezed in 2015 when the U.S. suspended access for several weeks to the central bank’s account at the New York Fed over concerns the cash was filtering through a loosely regulated market into Iranian banks and to the Islamic State extremist group. The New York Fed doesn’t publicly disclose how much money it currently holds for Iraq’s central bank. But according to the Central Bank of Iraq’s most recent financial statement, at the end of 2018, the Fed held nearly $3 billion in overnight deposits. The last few years have seen the Iraqi banking system devastated... An adviser to the prime minister, Abd al-Hassanein al-Hanein, said that while the threat was a concern, he did not expect the U.S. to go through with it. “If the U.S. does that, it will lose Iraq forever,” he said. Perhaps that is why Iraq has been building its de-dollarizing, gold reserves for the last few years... So, after a year of desperately proclaiming that "The Fed is not political," it turns out that, in fact, The Fed is extremely geopolitical - we look forward to hearing the Left defend The NY Fed's "independent" decision to potentially cripple Iran's entire financial system.
  3. The Superpowers Battling Over Iraq's Giant Oil Field By Simon Watkins - Dec 01, 2019, 6:00 PM CST Join Our Community Ever since the U.S. signalled through its effective withdrawal from Syria that it now has little interest in becoming involved in military actions in the Middle East, the door has been fully opened to China and Russia to advance their ambitions in the region. For Russia, the Middle East offers a key military pivot from which it can project influence West and East and that it can use to capture and control massive oil and gas flows in both directions as well. For China, the Middle East – and, absolutely vitally, Iran and Iraq – are irreplaceable stepping stones towards Europe for its era-defining ‘One Belt, One Road’ project. Earlier this week an announcement was made by Iraq’s Oil Ministry that highlights each of these factors at play, through a relatively innocuous-sounding contract award to a relatively unknown Chinese firm. Specifically, it was announced that China Petroleum Engineering & Construction Corp (CPECC) has been awarded a US$121 million engineering contract to upgrade the facilities that are used to extract gas during crude oil production at the supergiant West Qurna-1 oilfield in Iraq, 50 kilometres northwest of the principal oil hub of Basra. The project is due to be completed within 27 months and aims to increase the capture of gas currently being flared across the site. Two factors that were not highlighted in the general announcement were firstly that CPECC is a subsidiary of China’s principal political proxy in the oil and gas sector, China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC), and secondly that the gas capture project will also include the development of the oil reserves at West Qurna 1. The current level of oil reserves at West Qurna 1 is just under nine billion barrels but, crucially, the site is part of the overall massive West Qurna reservoir that comprises at least 43 billion barrels of crude oil reserves. “For China, it’s always all about positioning itself so that it is perfectly placed to expand its foothold,” a senior oil and gas industry source who works closely with Iraq’s Oil Ministry told OilPrice.com earlier this week. Certainly it makes sense for Iraq to finally begin to monetise its associated gas that it has been burnt off for decades as a product of its burgeoning oil production. Aside from the negative environmental impact of this practice, there is the bizarre practical result that Iraq – which holds some of the biggest oil and gas reserves in the world – has to go to its neighbour Iran every year and beg for electricity imports to plug the huge power deficits that afflict it, particularly during the summer months. As it stands, Iraq has been steadily importing around one third of its total energy supplies from Iran, which equates to around 28 million cubic feet (mcf) of gas to feed its power stations. Even with these extra supplies, frequent daily power outages across Iraq occur and have been a prime catalyst for widespread protests in the past, including last year. The situation is also likely to become worse if change does not occur as, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), Iraq’s population is growing at a rate of over one million per year, with electricity demand set to double by 2030, reaching about 17.5 gigawatts average. Apart from this, burning gas associated with the production of crude oil is costing Iraq billions of dollars in lost revenues. It loses money in the first place because in order to try to minimise power shortages, Iraq is forced to burn crude oil directly at power plants that it could sell in the open market for currently well over US$55 per barrel (and the lifting cost per barrel in Iraq is just US$2 on average). In this context, the average volume of crude oil used for power generation has fallen in the past two years from a peak of 223,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2015 but it still averages around 110,000 bpd, or around US$2.25 billion per year in value. It costs Iraq money in the second place because this associated gas that is flared could itself either be sold off directly or in LNG form or used as high-quality feedstock to finally truly kick-start the country’s long-stalled petrochemicals industry that itself could generate massive added-value product revenue streams. According to the IEA, Iraq has around 3.5 trillion cubic metres (tcm) of proven reserves of gas - mainly associated - which would be enough to supply nearly 200 years of Iraq’s current consumption of gas, as long as flaring is minimised. It added, though, that proven reserves do not provide an accurate picture of Iraq’s long-term production potential and that the underlying resource base – ultimately recoverable resources – is significantly larger, at 8 tcm or more. China knows all of this and has come to the correct conclusion that it cannot lose by expanding its imprint in Iraq in such a way. “However, China is now very wary of being seen in Iran or Iraq as looking to make them into client states, although that’s what it plans for both, so it’s recalibrated its approach to being more of the stealth variety – that is, small, incremental steps but lots of them - until at one point in the future the governments [of Iran and Iraq] look around and wonder how China is calling all the shots all of a sudden,” said the Iraq source. Such is the case in West Qurna 1 in which, although the contract announced principally involves CPECC just building the infrastructure to capture gas rather than flare it, in reality also involves being allowed to take and use or sell the gas at an advantageous rate. “China is looking at taking the gas with a discount of at least 30 per cent to the lowest mean one-year average market price at the hubs [principal gas hub pricing in Europe], and this then allows China to get more involved in the oil as well,” he added. China certainly has the expertise for this – and the appetite – as it has put on hold for a while at least its plans to take over the development of Phase 11 of Iran’s supergiant South Pars gas field. This large foothold in West Qurna 1 will very neatly fit in with China’s near-identical move just a couple of months ago in Iraq’s massive Majnoon oil field. It is this field that was the focus of the extremely similar announcement that two major new drilling contracts had been signed: one with China’s Hilong Oil Service & Engineering Company to drill 80 wells at a cost of US$54 million and the other with the Iraq Drilling Company to drill 43 wells at a cost of US$255 million. In reality, it will be China that is in charge of both, having given the funds required to the Iraq Drilling Company as a ‘fee’ for its own participation, according to the Iraq source. Also located very close to Basra – around 60 kilometres to the north-east - the supergiant Majnoon oilfield is one of the world’s largest, holding an estimated 38 billion barrels of oil in place. It is currently producing around 240,000 bpd. Longer term, though, the original production tar­get figures for the Shell-led consortium still stand: the first production target of 175,000 bpd (already reached), and the plateau production for the site of 1.8 million bpd at some point in the 2030s. West Qurna 1, in the meantime, is producing around 465,000 bpd, with an original plateau target of 2.825 million bpd having been re-negotiated down, to 1.6 million bpd again by some point in the 2030s. The deal for the oil that China ends up extracting from West Qurna 1 will be: “Absolutely in line with the deal it has for Majnoon,” the Iraq source told OilPrice.com earlier this week. Specifically, this will involve a 25-year contract but – critically – one that would only officially start two years after the signing date (yet to be determined), so allowing CNPC to recoup more profits on average per year and less upfront investment. The per barrel payments to China will be the higher of either the mean average of the 18 month spot price for crude oil produced, or the past six months’ mean average price. It will also involve at least a 10 per cent discount to China for at least five years on the value of the oil it recovers, in addition to the aforementioned 30 per cent discount for the gas it captures. By Simon Watkins for Oilprice.com https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-Superpowers-Battling-Over-Iraqs-Giant-Oil-Field.html#
  4. "And To Utilize Part Of Ur Phrase Of ‘Facts Vs Speculation’ ... U Haven’t Even Acknowledged The ‘Fact’ That The HCL Is On The Current Legislative Agenda - Even When It’s Been Clearly Spelled Out For U ." Thug... it may be a fact that it is on the Legislative Agenda... but... what good is that given these people lie constantly and it may not even pass.... that is what I'm talking about.. when that passes, THEN we can say, what effect it had on the process and see if that triggers the actual RV... until then, it is simply speculation, conjecture and supposition that it might have an effect.
  5. No sense in posting something to try to get us grounded. Like 97% of the public... just don't listen to reason... or logic. Adam has done a great job... I just wanted us to get back to the way he posted prior to a date that all seemed to be thinking it was "just any time now" I've seen it before and you just don't want to listen. Adam... post what you like, I know you are doing as much as you possibly can to be correct... I'll just be a listener and follow like the rest of the sheep.
  6. I knew no one would jump back on land and wait for the ship we have been waiting for so long. Come on now, my statement was only to keep everyone grounded in facts vs speculation. Adam does a great job and I just wanted to put it out there that this has been a long road and we only need to hear real facts of action. Adam does have viable information to provide but then everyone takes that and thinks... this is the time... only to be disappointed again, and again. A couple that got me into this outside of DV use to call me every week back in 2006 saying they had information that indicated it was happening.... This is an emotional roller coaster for some and others just don't have the broad thought process to think critically. I guess you think the Federal Reserve is a Governmental Agency... wake up.
  7. Adam, You went down the rabbit hole a couple of years ago and look where it got us.... drink the potion & come out of the rabbit hole until we actually know facts, not speculation. This Hope and change went out with the previous administration. Sorry to be blunt, but I think we would all be better served if we cut out the drama.
  8. Yergin: Expect Extreme Volatility In Oil Markets Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com, Rising pipeline takeaway capacity in the Permian and global oil demand growth at its weakest in a decade are set to lead to more volatility in oil prices in the near term, a prominent energy expert said, joining a growing number of analysts who see prices further depressed by slowing economies and crude demand. “The pipeline bottlenecks are in the process of being resolved, so a lot more oil is going to come onto the market by the end of the year. We expect the U.S. (crude oil output) to be up to 13 million barrels a day,” IHS Markit’s vice chairman Daniel Yergin told CNBC on Tuesday. While U.S. production will continue to add more supply in an already oversupplied global market, on the demand side, expectations are getting increasingly pessimistic. “We’re in one of the weakest periods since 2008 and we think demand growth this year is under a million barrels per day. So you have that factor at the same time as you have more oil coming to the market. So expect some volatility,” Yergin told CNBC in an interview on the sidelines of a conference in Abu Dhabi. Despite expectations of volatility, IHS Markit’s vice chairman sees Brent Crude prices range-bound in the US$55-65 range. Yergin is not alone in predicting substantially lower oil demand growth this year than originally anticipated. https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/yergin-expect-extreme-volatility-oil-markets
  9. Dec 5th 2003 IQD $3.34 to US $.... not gonna happen again... they will probably go digital...
  10. One of the reasons why Trump and Congress were so quick to pass a debt ceiling deal last week is that had they failed to do so, with the Treasury's cash balance sliding precariously lower and expected to hit $0 by early September, there was a non-trivial chance the US could technically default by the time Congress came back from its August vacation. Of course, that did not happen, a debt ceiling extension deal was reached, and as a result the Treasury is now free to start reloading its cash balance, and it plans on doing just that. On Monday, the Treasury Department announced its latest quarterly estimates of net marketable borrowing needs for the current (July – September 2019) and upcoming (October – December 2019) quarters. What it revealed was the following: After borrowing just $40 billion in the past, April-June period, which left the Treasury with a quarter end cash balance of $264 billion, in the current quarter, the Treasury now expects Treasury issuance to explode higher, and borrow a whopping $433 billion in net marketable debt, a massive $274 billion higher - or more than doubling - its prior forecast announced in April 2019. The reason for this debt issuance flurry? To rebuild the cash balance back to a level of $350 billion, which is where the Treasury expects its end-of-September cash balance to be, up from just $85 billion as of the April 29 forecast. https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-07-29/us-treasury-now-expects-issue-over-800-billion-debt-two-quarters
  11. https://usawatchdog.com/who-bails-out-central-banks-in-coming-chaos-james-rickards/ Debt to GDP - we can't get inflation. There is a spending to growth problem. The US is looking more like Japan.
  12. That is very wise advise... Another one is the house with 3500 sq ft that will need a new roof, air conditioner(s) , windows, paint, flooring within 15 to 20 years. Add that up and see the pricing on those expenditures .... not to mention the vehicle you park in that nice home. I was there, did it, experienced it. Finally sold it while the housing market was up. Now I have extra cash, and peace of mind.
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