Your IMF Update: Country Report No. 13/21 - Iraq

[dontlop]

thats where it peaked my interest tbomb . starting at number 7

they are even talking about the high dolarization of the economy ..

[TotalNewb]

They talk about a lot of the talking points we have been looking for!

[dontlop]

The government receives one-hundred percent of Iraq’s oil export

revenues, and in turn decides how much to save abroad or channel into the domestic economy

via government spending.

[TBomb]

Agreed, Dontlop and Newb.  Very interesting.

[dontlop]

Oil production will rise gradually by about 400–500 thousand barrels per year, reaching

5.7 mbpd by 2018. The non-oil sector will grow by about 6 percent and reach 51 percent

of GDP in 2018.

This fiscal path will allow doubling

the size of fiscal buffers held at

the DFI to 12 months of wages

and salaries by end-2018. These

buffers would allow Iraq to

withstand a negative shock of

$36 per barrel in oil prices,

[TBomb]

your quote reminds me of the articles we saw a while back, stating that we may be able to hang on to our dinar for up to ten years...this quote makes the potential assigned value for the iqd most attractive..just hope they release a rate well before that..hmmm.

[dontlop]

the DFI, which

was established in 2003 by the UN Security Council Resolution 1483 as a way of accumulating

Saddam-era frozen assets, monitoring its oil revenues and ensuring the payment of war

compensations to Kuwait. Also, to enhance the protection of Iraqi assets from debtors and other

claims, the resolution gave multilateral immunity to the DFI, which expired in 2011 (Iraqi assets are

protected by general U.S. immunities on sovereign assets, and by special immunities granted by the

U.S. in 2003).

[zigmeister]

your quote reminds me of the articles we saw a while back, stating that we may be able to hang on to our dinar for up to ten years...this quote makes the potential assigned value for the iqd most attractive..just hope they release a rate well before that..hmmm.

I don't see how that is a good thing in an RV scenario.

[dontlop]

• Oil revenues which accumulate at the DFI as fiscal reserves become

  international reserves of the CBI when the government repatriates the foreign exchange and sells it

  to the CBI to finance domestic spending. The foreign currency amount adds to the international

  reserves of the CBI, and domestic currency spent by the government increases domestic currency

  liquidity in the economy, which in turn creates demand for foreign exchange.

   

[sirlep33]

"The policy of publication of staff reports and other documents allows for the deletion of 

market-sensitive information". 

 

Love the disclaimer they put in on the very first page also, right above the address where you can contact them to get your own personal copy of this. 

 

You can definitely get hints by what they are saying is going to happen, but that one sentence says it all for me.  What could they be deleting from the report?  Your guess is as good as mine, but I think we will find out in the near future!

Edited July 20, 2013 by sirlep33

[dontlop]

well kuwaits currency exchange lasted a year or two ..but the kuwait central bank still accepted the old kuwait dinars ...at its cash window .. for 10 years before they demnetized the old kuwaiti dinars

[TBomb]

I don't see how that is a good thing in an RV scenario.

I would think it's a good thing if we're allowed to hold our notes post RV, as the value of the country, applied to the IQD should rise over time. Eventually, I would assume it would level off, but if, as stated by dontlop, revenues are to increase, once the currency is released, value should be assigned on some level, at some point. I don't see how it's bad if we're allowed to hold onto our notes.  I'm no expert in this portion of the investment, but I don't see how it hurts..phase three of "the plan" will still be put in place.  Currencies, I believe, will co-exist.

[deniscanada]

thanx

[dontlop]

• (a) a large share of goods consumed by

  households is imported, ( durable consumption goods and real estate are paid in dollars, and ©

  most savings, except for small working balances, are converted into dollars or directly transferred

  abroad given the lack of confidence in the banking system and the limited investment

  opportunities.

   

   

[zigmeister]

well kuwaits currency exchange lasted a year or two ..but the kuwait central bank still accepted the old kuwait dinars ...at its cash window .. for 10 years before they demnetized the old kuwaiti dinars

I guess I have to wonder how many Kuwaiti dinars were they holding to for ten years.  My guess is not that much.  Kuwait and Iraq are not the same.

[dontlop]

im not sure if they do put out a new currency .. .. maybe only the  new dinar will be international and the bremmers will have a pegged exchange rate only to the new dinar which in my opinion will include the kurdish language ,, the kurds are a large part of the iraqi economy and im sure they do some importing and exporting .. they are insistant on the inclusion of kurdish language .. shabbs said  it will be a minor change .. and only be a numerical change .. like the number of dinars on each note woul include kurdish numbers  arabic numbers .. and i have heard they would include english .. so maybe they will include the numbers in english .. like the 5 dinar notes  10 notes .. 20 notes .. 50 notes ....100 notes    .. just the number will be in those languages ..is what i believe i read  coming from shabbs

 

the new dinar could have a new exchange rate of 1 dinar to 1 dollar .. and the bremmer could be separate  and only pegged to the  new dinar at  any rate .. it could be 100 bremmers to one new dinar ,,  or a one penny rv .. it could be 250 ..to one new dinar .. or 500 ..

 

what im getting at is the new dinar could go international but the old one doesnt ..but we would have an exchange period  based on 1 to 1 for a year or two .... and our treasury dept could handle that for us .. maybe not .. the fed may handle it .. or it could also be handled by banks like citi group who have offices in iraq .. jp morgan .. who ever .. we simply dont know for sure how this is going to work ..

I guess I have to wonder how many Kuwaiti dinars were they holding to for ten years.  My guess is not that much.  Kuwait and Iraq are not the same.

i dont know ... i read that on the kuwait  central bank web site .. .. i dont know who  or why anyone would have any .. but thats what they did they didnt demonetize the currency for 10 years ...

i did a little reading on the kcb ... and the lcb . libya and kuwait changed their currencys . i was just curious

• libya was interesting because they depegged from the dollar and peged to the sdr at the imf .. because of how the dollar kept losing value  .. they worked against the dolar ,, each country devalues at different rates based on interest rates ,, libya decided to peg to a basket of currencys which is just an average of currencys in the sdr or how ever they come up with that basket

Edited July 20, 2013 by dontlop

[TotalNewb]

Dontlop,

I thought about scenarios like that and it scares me.

I always had the awful thought that what if our dinar remains at the rate it is AND in-exchangeable here in the states. Then we are screwed. Could happen, I suppose.

Guess I won't be ordering anymore Dinar.

[sandfly]

THANKS

[KentuckyMudd]

I guess I have to wonder how many Kuwaiti dinars were they holding to for ten years. My guess is not that much. Kuwait and Iraq are not the same.

Agreed that the two are completely different but what I like most about them is that they have one thing in common. OIL! I was fortunate enough to hear about the wealth Kuwait had from some locals and some contractors in Kuwait city. It's mind blowing! (If your lucky enough to be a citizen and not just a third country national) they talked about the payments and gov't gifts for marriage of citizens. If Iraq could just get a handle on the resources they have and spread wealth fairly among it's people (I know hard to imagine at this point) they could be in great shape.

[starlight]

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/aa/

 

Frankly, I'm too tired to spell this out (I'm walking dogs all day in the heat, not looking for sympathy, just sayin'...)..If you'd like to do the research, you'll see that no matter what the IMF states, or in the case of Iraq, tries to impose, the enactment of dropping the APR and instating the exchange regime falls to a country's respective decision. The IMF cannot force them to do anything. As you  know, as long as Maliki still has the power of veto and collusion with the judges, I don't think we'll see this. We need the Federation Council enacted and in force, in order to greatly weaken him and his reach (further). 

 

Also, it's the supposition of researcher's I respect, who state that they believe that as Ch 7 release is a UN issue, Iraq may have been coerced to choose an exchange regime with the IMF ( a division of the UN) not only to benefit their and by proxy, the world's economy, but also so that they can prepare for WTO ascension by having first assigned a value to their currency, which would then allow them to develop their private sector according to wto requirements.

As you can see, I'm pretty opinionated on this matter. I know there are those who don't agree with me, and that's cool. This is JMO.

BTW - I truly hope I'm wrong on this.

 

THE FEDERATION COUNCIL:

 

Iraqi Politicians Push For More Power to Provinces

Read more: http://dinarvets.com/forums/index.php?/topic/155100-iraqi-politicians-push-for-more-power-to-provinces/#ixzz2ZYRmfEiL

This is better:

 

A joint parliamentary committee working on the final touches to the draft law on the formation of the Federation Council

Read more: http://dinarvets.com/forums/index.php?/topic/154413-a-joint-parliamentary-committee-working-on-the-final-touches-to-the-draft-law-on-the-formation-of-the-federation-council/#ixzz2ZYSevdjG

[dontlop]

Dontlop,

I thought about scenarios like that and it scares me.

I always had the awful thought that what if our dinar remains at the rate it is AND in-exchangeable here in the states. Then we are screwed. Could happen, I suppose.

Guess I won't be ordering anymore Dinar.

if thats the case we would just go through a dealer like the  way most os us got our dinars ..

 

 

being thaT CITI GROUP  HAS AN OFFICE IN BAGDAD .. IM NOT WORRIED AT ALL ..

citi world link has been making payments in iraqi dinar since 2006 ...for selected clients