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SWFloridaGuy

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Everything posted by SWFloridaGuy

  1. 3-29-13 SWFloridaGuy: Amazing news today(thanks Yota for the article) !! The Finance Committee VP announced that they will be returning the natural rate of the IQD against the USD which proves that Iraq's rate is artificially low due to war/sanctions and not solely due to excessive printing of the old notes. The IMF is also supporting and instructing them on how to accomplish this. Unless you believe in a straight RD, you've known this to be true from the start and why you made a great financial decision (low risk/high reward) in seizing this opportunity. After talking to several people, with several different theories, I believe Iraq will take a more general convex function where the growth increases in a way completely disproportional to it's current value. In other words a float is doubtful, only if the suggestion is that they would be exponential/or in that neighborhood realistically, when speaking of incremental appreciations. But I don't discount it as a possibility because of what a few keep saying incorrectly about the ERM (which is reallly the ERM ll), and is often used to discount the possibility of a steady increase because the members voluntarily agree to contain their monetary exchange rates within a limited percentage margin. The only problem is this has ZERO to do with Iraq. Not even going to bother explaining why it's irrelevant, here's a pdf explaining stage 3 of this inconsequential (to the CBI) monetary union. http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:C:2009:016:0010:0015:EN:PDF There's already way too much heat on Iraq concerning their currency and the hype. So although they could make incremental appreciations i.e., 1000 to 1 as the next step, I don't see them going that route and with this announcement from the Finance Committee it's pretty clear to me that a gradual increase will not accomplish their goals. I think a historic RV somewhere at least on par with the USD initially is the true direction their monetary reform project is headed. Considering what Iraq has been through it's actually a fairly quick recovery and although its taken longer than we initially expected it will be long worth the wait. There is one exception to a historic RV that would eventually accomplish their goal of returning a proper value to the IQD. We know the IQD is only currently pegged to the USD as a defensive measure as Iraq rebuilds. So, they've been using the auctions to supply the market with dollars and help stabilize the IQD against the USD. In theory this could also be accomplished by setting the daily price of the IQD in direction proportion to the daily USD price of a barrel of oil. Iraq keeps talking about going international. Well, either revalue your currency a minimum of 100,000% over night and sustain that growth long-term (which is the real challenge), or do a hybrid solution that would promote integration into world markets. But according to the IMF, Finance Committee and CBI they have already accomplished the necessary economic/political growth to restore previous values to the IQD immediately. I still think Iraq applying for membership is one of the best clues we have currently and suggests that a big change is on the horizon for Iraq because WTO member countries MUST have a convertible currency. It is a requirement!! I know someone will ask, "Well, if that's the case, then what about Panama and Vietnam?" Panama is the ONLY country who has exclusive rights to use the USD as its par-value currency and with their USD economy they offer no foreign exchange risk and no need for exchange controls and specific agreements with the IMF and World Bank that are exclusive to them and not common practice. Anyone, who says that Iraq doesn't need to raise the value of their currency to become an official WTO member (which they are claiming will be accomplished), hasn't done very good research. It is true that the WTO accession process is long and drawn out but that's in part because Iraq will never accede until after their currency reform project has been initiated. Iraq's economic stagnation will remain until they have an internationally recognized and traded currency that's worth more than the termite nest in my back yard. As a member of the WTO, the IMF has very specific policies, under Article VIII and Article IV reviews, that forbid Multiple Currency Practices and Currency Manipulation. They are grilling Iraq right now and the IQD is being heavily scrutinized. You can bet that those Senior Iraqi Officials receiving training from them already have a plan (whatever that may be), to be put into action soon. They must have an IQD with an internationally accepted value that will support trade and aren't adopting the USD as their National Currency like Panama. Two good quote from Ministry of Commerce and International Trade Organization, "Iraq's accession to WTO will allow it to strengthen its economy and restart industrial institutions", "Iraq's accession to the WTO will allow it to strengthen its economy and restart institutions industrial" and "Iraq's accession to the WTO means returning to its real and essential in the global economy and that it must be the fact that Iraq an active and influential in the international economy. The bottom line is it's in Iraq's best interest to move forward with their economic reform project now, which is exactly what today's article is saying. Prior to the actual event the news won't get much better than that.
  2. 3-15-13 SWFloridaGuy: I am working on a special report together with a few others that will feature opinions from some of the top economists in the world who believe in Iraq's chances of fulfilling (what we consider) to be their potential in the short term during this global economic crisis, considering Iraq is one of only a handful of places that remains a plentiful source for non-renewable resources, which have been depleted elsewhere and cannot be reproduced, grown or generated (using the technology available today) that would be required for consumption rate stability. We can ignore the warnings of professional financial advisers warning us of the dangers that a misplaced faith in the leading fiat currencies whose faith based system is failing resulting in a dangerous combination of increased debt and less purchasing power. The Euro has exposed that modern currency is nothing more than worthless paper when the government in question (U.S. in particular) is recklessly printing what they are incapable of backing. This problem is only overlooked because of ignorance and a refusal to accept and prepare for the irrefutable consequences of that going down this path will lead all who fail to head a proven historic precedence of what gives true value to a currency. The Romans were far more successful in sustaining a respected medium of exchange using coins containing 24 carat gold for 700 years until military invasions and civil war resulted in an absolute eradication of all gold content. About 10 years later (12 to be exact), we had what could be considered one of the earliest revaluations when a new coin was introduced at a rate that brought it in at just slightly under what we would call an RI. Apples & Oranges from different eras but we can still fantasize about the similarities as Iraq reaches approaches that similar decade mark of reconstruction while they attempt to recover economically. I realize the message I'm trying to convey will probably be misconstrued to lend support to the IQD RV, similar to how the history books have been re-written to by those who see the potential for profit by implying that Iraq is simply Chapter 2 of Revaluation for Dummies. Unless you were living in Iraq, stationed by the military in Iraq and hung on to a currency for a few months while dodging bullets to protect your crystal ball, you didn't become rich off the Kuwaiti Dinar. I'm sorry for getting sidetracked but this is the #1 misconception about the history of large currency appreciations and an excellent way to spot a fraud using a fabricated story of his/her amazing foresight, seal team 6 like precision to accomplish a near impossible and dangerous mission for a US citizen and yet with all these talents when it comes time to share the details or provide evidence their mission takes an oddly abstruse direction. The internet contains hundreds of detailed first hand accounts documented by pictures and high def video of monkeys urinating in their own mouth but zero that prove that Kuwait revalued their currency. Here are the actual values straight from their central bank: KuwaitD/USD Exchange Rates: 1990 291.24 1991 289.19 1992 293.30 1993 301.32 There are, of course, a couple news articles we've all seen describing the events following Kuwait’s liberation and described how the Kuwaiti dinar was restored as the country's currency and a new banknote series was introduced, allowing the previous notes, including those stolen, to be demonetized. While some will tell you to completely ignore the Persian Gulf War, I strongly disagree for the simple fact that rather than concentrating on the temporary setback their currency sustained which any professional economist will tell you if you are trying to determine a plausible value of a currency of a country boasting comparable (even greater) wealth, you don't concentrate on the brief period during their history where their true value was not represented. Of course the hypers claim that more countries are going to revalue than there are even currencies that exist so I guess China is not among that group or needed since there is an abundance of newly discovered currencies about to flood the market. Captain Jack Sparrow makes a great pirate but moonlighting as a guru, no one revalues. Nothing changes. I've met the most intelligent, well-informed, descent individuals I've ever had the pleasure to know in dinar chat rooms, forums and 3rd party introductions and I'm sorry for being so blunt with my delivery which only applies to a very select few who have also managed to spread their message quite successfully while an overwhelming majority who respectfully disagrees often are silenced or banned. I believe those that make bold date/rate predictions daily for years are just as entitled to their opinion as myself or anyone else. I've certainly been wrong plenty of times and that's to be expected but we should also encourage respectful debate to come to a better understanding knowing how many out there relatively new to this community take these predictions as gospel and sell their soul for 1 more 25k note. As a newbie I had experience with this myself and had to take responsibility for investing more than I could afford but I was also influential in convincing the group of friends I brought on board to make similar decisions and a friend lost her apartment. I had the best intentions and can't wait for the day that this will pay off for her but I'm sharing this experience to make the point that the constant date/rate predictions although a source of entertainment for those of us more experienced may have (often does actually) have real effects on others so we need to be as honest with each other as possible and not embellish or fabricate posts, hiding behind anonymity, deflecting albatross by saying blaming it on relaying information rather than take responsibility for their lack of vetting the credibility beforehand and as much as possible provide the reasoning behind your conclusions which helps us all come to a better understanding. When I first signed up for this ride (and I'm extremely grateful I did), under many false pretenses, it wasn't until I went to sites where censorship was not allowed and by having my own posts and interpretations challenged by those with more experience I learned more in a couple months then the years combined where the cult-like type atmosphere was more prevalent and critical thinking was discouraged. Vague analogies posted for adulation, increased sales revenue, site traffic hits or all 3 where you're left to believe that if you read between the lines with a decoder pen not only will you be able to safely operate a jumbo jet you will receive an early cash out in Reno with a higher exchange rate. On the other hand, I believe those who can only envision a straight RD forgot we've come up from 3000 to 1 already and no matter how significant a revaluation, you will never be given a heads up by any Iraqi news articles or neon boulevard of dreams signs affirming a RV/RI/Float/Change in Peg etc., in advance. So, continuing to take that stance, demanding proof is everyone's right but IMO boasting of vast knowledge while devoting their time/energy to a hopeless endeavor is a sad example of being blissfully unaware of their need to impart a constant state of atrophy. This is just my personal perspective and I am well-aware that many view me as "negative" myself and at the end of the day I do appreciate anyone who is devoting their time, on the same team, in it for the long haul but hoping for a victory in the near future. I prefer not to use the term Lopster anymore because of the unnecessary contention and hostility it conveys. The straight RD theory will continue to gain tenability following every baseless, farcical rumor that damages the credibility of a promising investment opportunity (be that gradual or long term) and we are left holding the bag trying to explain to Google that the IQD is a currency, not a scam and that large currency appreciation shocks do exist and historically no country has ever been in a better position to accomplish such a drastic change, which we have all recognized and is the reason we are here. I stay away from rate predictions but I would love to see on par with the USD. If you disagree then take it up with the Finance Committee, CBI officials and reports to US Congress that state 1 to 1 or slightly higher as the target rate. I'm not going to reiterate the multitude of reasons I believe that one day Iraq will have one of, if not the, strongest and most valuable currency not only in the M.E., but globally. I have an extremely optimistic outlook for this investment but also am overtly opposed to the hype only because those far more educated than myself have explained in detail why bank screens flashing, amber to red, Forex movement (with a currency that's not even traded), bogus Prosperity Package memos that have zero basis in reality and even George Lucas would struggle to tie that to the IQD to gain credibility, 172 (156) countries all RVing in a global reset which is accepted by many in the community as if it were a button found on my Play station, 100+ countries couldn't agree on a favorite color and if even a quarter of that amount actually revalued it would destroy the global economy not save it. For example, we can't even get China to make small incremental adjustments because in their opinion it's in their best interest to keep the Yuan artificially low. We cannot underestimate the importance of oil in today's market. Kuwait's wealth was due almost completely to their large oil production when a redenomination is an understandable position to maintain for those who don't understand all the determining factors that contribute to adding value and fail to take into account what determines supply and demand and completely lose sight of key macroeconomic trends a currency's value. There are different types of economies, degrees of market orientation and how far along the economic development has progressed and today's most promising economies specialize in unique areas where important natural resources are taken heavily into account, historic oil production is one area where there will always be a demand and confidence that it will be commercially recoverable under these current economic conditions. This is one of many reasons Iraq is the fastest growing economy in the world. Also, oil is quickly becoming second in Iraq to gold. Early in 2012 there was a large discovery of Gold in eastern Baghdad. The last couple years have produced large quantities of gold through their vast drilling operations and have already surpassed the purification and extraction process. This discovery, among others, could turn Iraq into a producer of gold more than oil. It also will increase real estate prices due to the influx of gold job seekers. I apologize for my inability to summarize my opinions but the bottom line is we should feel confident we have signed up for a great investment opportunity and it's a good policy to fact check the information you receive whether that be from myself or anyone else. Trust what your own research leads you to believe because none of us can predict the outcome but we can do a far better job speculating if we work together.
  3. Thank you all for a great thread. Very informative and respectful. Great read guys, this is why I love DV.
  4. Hey there my friend always a pleasure. I just saw Aliens (my favorite) over the weekend and was thinking of you. I still can't believe the Reno scam hasn't been eradicated like some mutant swine flue virus. I used to feel pity for those who were swindled but after all the tireless effort DV and others have devoted to protecting them, I almost feel like it's a hopeless endeavor. I'm more interested in going back to LA and trying your world famous Portabellas. I'll score us some tickets from my former employer SBE if you wanna hit the town. Would be nice to take a little vaca from this madness. Who knows, maybe you and I are holding up the RV and this will benefit everyone. Stay in touch, I know you will. You're a trooper.
  5. Thanks guys. Hey it looks like I'm not the only insomniac in the house. Where's Carrello, Deb, Katie, and Rayzor? I thought tonight was jello wrestling tier 1. Oh well, must have just missed them. Good to see ya Zul as always. Ok time for me to overdose on Nyquil. Night DVers. zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
  6. 3-10-13 SWFloridaGuy: Greetings Dinar Vets. I've decided to change my focus from solely doing my own research and decided to branch out to utilize what the professionals far more educated in the areas than myself. For 3 years I've studied large currency appreciations, macroeconomics, economic policy and the risk associated with it. As hard as I apply myself, I'm not to proud to admit I'm out of my league. So, I've enlisted the help of some professional global investment authorities and research groups. Doug Casey Research , Herg, UC San Diego, CESifo and an old acquaintance from Syracuse to name a few. These interviews will be recorded and the questions will be submitted to them to give them time to prepare and avoid feeling ambushed. I will broadcast them upon completion. I am only looking for honest opinions (positive or negative) and will not censor them broadening the spectrum for multiple points of view. Addressing another topic: I empathize with the frustrations of our fellow brothers and sisters, many who I've come to call friends. I grow weary of those I consider perfidious, clearly motivated by an ulterior agenda. We're under enough stress and Im not her to cause strife (character defect I am working on) which accomplishes nothing other than to promote discourse among an already very distressed group (myself included). I do believe this is a great opportunity and I'm in it for the long haul but I have learned it's more enjoyable when it's not all-consuming where other areas of my life are neglected (never was a big fan of roller coasters). I've tried to expose the Reno scams & date/rate hype but have come to the realization that, true or false, people prefer to have hope and, after all, they could be right and I could be wrong so who am I to judge. However, there is a select group promoting cults who employ a potent mixture of influence techniques and deception to attain psychological control over members who are only doing everything to provide for their families during these difficult financial times. Unfortunately with every genuine investment opportunity there are also an abundance of anonymous imposters willing to tell you exactly what you want to hear, for a fee of course. Then there are certain forums where adults are treated equally, each opinion condidered, valued and given the proper respect they deserve. No moderated chats, no typing in all caps, no banning for exposing untruths and most importantly they focus on the real positive aspects of this investment, of which there are many. This will always be highly speculative, which is precisely why authoritativeness and condescension has no place here. It's possible to be skeptical while also having an optimistic outlook toward this investment and life in general. I do appreciate the social aspect and friends I've made along the way but have also come to the realization that there are many naive people out there who are willing to believe anything once they get that gold fever (which is understandable to a point). It's been a quite a journey (both financially and emotionally) but I believe 100% that in time we will prosper. Those who have been involved for years have already seen an appreciation which we believe will continue sanguinely by comparison considering how far Iraq has come, despite several setbacks along the way. In the meantime we should try coexist peacefully, ignoring pumpers thereby limiting their audience and making a concerted effort to review each others research in a respectful manner and offer our own perspective; whether that be in the affirmative or showcasing an alternative theory. This isn't a competition. I can't recall Doug Casey (Casey Research) crying me first, me first, I said it first. Typing in all caps, or holding moderated chats. Banning members for exposing untruths does nothing to further our cause. I'm sorry if this is off topic tonight but I've grown weary of the disrespect lies and cult-like, blind following the blind that I've witnessed over the past few years. Like all families we often bicker, which is understandable, with so much on the line. I'm guilty of much of this myself but have had the pleasure of speaking with those far more educated and professional than myself and am doing my best to emulate them because I need a lot of help from many of the experienced, knowledgeable members this community has to offer. Synergism is the key and if utilized, we may be able come to a better understanding and limit our frustrations. We could probably start by elminating these phrases I saw on S.N.L. 1. The rate is live on Forex. 2. Bank Screens are going wild (red, amber, blue, blinking) 3. UST is in lockdown. 4. Cheney just bought more IQD/Pacemaker. 5. Vegas is now accepting money orders. 6. Prosperity packages are prospering (off us). 7. The 747 made it's final made it's voyage to the Bermuda Triangle (unfortunately the manna was among the lost cargo). 8. Don't go to the CBI website, you'll crash the server and stop our blessing. I would also like to genuinely thank all the economists/tireless researchers and the thousands of dedicated chat room members/newshounds/friends who continue to devote their time to sharing their honest opinions, void of vague, misleading analogies that help us all come to further our own understanding and research when it comes to such a highly speculative topic. I'm sorry if this came off a tad acrimonious. My inability to suppress my frustrations sometimes overshadows my gratitude for this once in a lifetime opportunity. I have no doubt this is the opportunity of the century. I've recently changed my focus from solely studying articles, macroeconomics, geo-politics, UN/WTO regulations and procedural steps because after much research I've come to realize I will never fully grasp how this will influence a country as corrupt as Iraq and the global financial system in General, which we hope will somehow filter down to benefit us in the near future. The G-7 developed economies realize that you can't simply print money into existence and fight deflation while stimulating growth. As we all know by now these currency wars have gone global. The leaders of the world are facing a major problem. They can no longer print fiat currency when they have no real value. A change is coming and 3rd world countries with no debt and a monumental amount of natural resources will help to revitalize the global economy investment/aid/contracts/corporations and arms deals will pour in. This will not happen over night but it will happen. There is no other alternative. Now to talk about the positive: Let's examine some applicable information that also happens to be very encouraging regarding Iraq's natural wealth and financial/political outlook: They have already mined thousands of tons of gold, which was set aside for the purification and extraction process. This discovery, among others, could turn Iraq into a producer of gold more than oil. It has also will increase the prices of real estate due to the influx of gold job seekers. Iraq currently has $60 billion in foreign currency reserves. In the 70s, when their former currency boasted a much larger value, Iraq's foreign reserves were only 35 billion. As CBI reserves grow, so does their credibility. They passed their largest budget in history and are making Chapter VII removal, WTO accession, appeasing the Kuwait, receiving support from the United Nations/negotiating with the Kurds and HOPEFULLY resolving the elusive HCL/140 in a way that satisfies all parties involved. I'm not here to attempt to convince you that overnight Iraq will RV . On the contrary, after studying large currency appreciations and the repercussions that would have not only short term but long term (although anything is possible), I now take a more balanced approach that a large currency appreciation shock is on the horizon for the IQD but tend to believe this will be a more gradual process and only after certain changes have taken place that will ensure long term stability (economic not political). We are currently witnessing these changes and I postulate that before the elections this postulate will proliferate barring any unforseen political instabiltiy. When you ignore the daily hype and follow the verifiable progress Iraq is making you can't help but be encouraged and it makes this journey far more tolerable (even exciting). To name a few: · Economic sanctions being lifted · Plans to alleviate debt have been instituted · Iraq is the fastest growing economy in the world · Funds being unfrozen · Iraq is emerging as an economic leader not only in MENA but globally · The IEA recently reported that Iraq will lead OPEC oil production growth over the next two decades · Private sector has made huge contributions toward economic recovery · Oil companies are driving growth and boosting infrastructure development · Budget passed - general progress that will lead to further implementation of necessary projects . Central banks formulate the timing of the implementation phase of a nation’s policy agenda . Confidence that the economy is strong and faith that strength will continue, historically proven element that all former revaluations share . The GOI/CBI's credibility is paramount, international pressure forcing the CBI to revalue will not maintain that growth . The CBI could move forward as they see fit but we see the GOI/CBI receiving international pressure demanding political/economic ameliorate . Iraq plans for economic integration . They are the premier emerging market, not only in the Middle East but the world . Iraq has positioned itself to make a significant impact on the oil and energy industry . The global economy is suffering and is once again forced to turn to the world's central banks for salvage . Iraq alone does not have the power to revive global economic growth but they present a unique opportunity that could possibly coadjutant in the recovery process. I'd like to add just one more thing. The scammers promising you high rates with PP/Vegas (whatever) deplorable liars. When the IQD goes live (international) the IMF will send a 'go live' signal to the Central Banks (upon approval of BIS board), then it will hit the master board at their main corporate offices and proceed to the banking system (country to country) depending on the IMF release terms. There will BE ONLY ONE RATE, NO TIERS!!!!!!!; at which point, depending upon regulations, each bank will institute the buy/sell spreads. Avoid Vegas scammers AKA Beverly Skinner Group, Hammerman and BH Group (Cell Block 6 bunkin w/Bubba). We have plenty to be grateful for, despite the countless setback we've endured. But even the most skeptical can see that Iraq's come along way and the posibilities are endless. Observe from a distance, help out for the newbies and stay positive (remind me of that from time to time) my fellow Dinarians, whom I am very grateful to have met and learned so much from. We will prosper from this, keep the faith. ** Sorry this post was so long. My iPhone died and Game of Thrones doesn't start till the end of the month.**
  7. Haha geez Easy, I'm gonna have nightmares now. That must be one of those discount mail order brides.
  8. Thanks ReVbo, good tune also. The Lopsters are awfully quiet.
  9. I'm of course always going to be skeptical of rumors but I appreciate you puttting yourself out there Tqueezy. It takes a lot of guts to say that here and I certainly prefer hearing this from you then someone like Okie. Thanks
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