Charlie Echo

For business counseling on opportunities in Iraq, please e-mail questions to IraqInfo@mail.doc.gov or call (866) 352-IRAQ (4727).

Toward the end of last year, many market followers were speculating on a Fed hike as early as the first half of 2010. Global stock markets had experienced explosive bounces, commodity prices had surged from the crisis lows, and risk spreads and market volatility had all subsided. In short, markets were pricing in a very optimistic outlook for global economic recovery — a return to normalcy. But just two short months into 2010, the exuberance about recovery has deflated. The world is still saddled with problems and vulnerable to lurking threats ... the U.S unemployment is sustaining high levels, the housing market continues to weigh on consumer balance sheets and confidence has again taken a dive. There is more uncertainty, which is likely to impact the prospects for global growth. People are waking up to what's likely a long road to recovery, given the damage from, what Alan Greenspan calls, the worst financial crisis ever. And for now, the global financial markets are taking cues from three key themes ... Sovereign Debt Problems:Fiscal problems in Greece are mushrooming into a global, sovereign debt crisis. Greece's finances have created tremors in the European monetary union. And the speculative pressures on countries surrounding their fiscal challenges will likely find bigger targets in the coming months, namely the UK, Japan and the U.S. China Tightening Credit The bubble alarm for Chinese authorities was the massive surge of new loans in the first half of January. New bank loans last month approached levels of last year, when liquidity pumping was in emergency mode. Now China is tightening up bank reserve ratios and curtailing easy money programs, fearing a bubble burst of its own. Fed's Exit Strategy The Fed's move in the discount rate last week was the first active step it has taken toward reversing its emergency policies. Up to that point, the Fed had only guided (or allowed) the programs in place to either expire or mature — indeed, passive steps. And the timing was a surprise ... The Fed's bumping up the discount rate was a growth positive sign. The move came only eight days after the text of a Bernanke speech that said the discount rate would start moving higher "before long." To act so soon after making that comment will create loads of excitement and speculation whenever the Fed chooses to drop the magic words — "extended period" — from its guidance on keeping the benchmark Fed Funds rate at current levels which has a positive impact on global growth prospects. A Sentiment Shift Has Taken Place. These three themes are keeping the dollar on solid footing and keeping pressure on European currencies and those currencies that are dependent upon sustained growth and demand from China (i.e. the Australian dollar, the New Zealand dollar, Brazilian real). There is clearly a sentiment shift that has taken place when it comes to the recovery prospects for global economies. Now the growing consensus is shifting away from the theories of a V-shaped economic recovery and toward the alternative scenarios ... most visibly, a sovereign debt crisis. But while a sovereign debt crisis is already underway and will likely continue to spread, I don't think it's the biggest threat to the global economy. Rather, the biggest threat will likely come from growing trade tensions between China and the rest of the world. That's because China's Currency Is Enemy #1 to Global Recovery. Over the last 14 years, China's economy has grown a whopping eight-fold, to $4.9 trillion, and has quickly ascended to become the world's third-largest economy. During the same period, the U.S. economy has only doubled in size. As far as currencies are concerned, the dramatic outperformance of the Chinese economy relative to the U.S. economy would normally be reflected in a much stronger Chinese currency. But, of course, China controls the value of its currency. They allowed it to strengthen only 18 percent during those 14 years — a mere drop in the bucket. And that's where tensions are threatening to boil over. It's not just with its key export market, the United States, but equally as tumultuous with its Asian neighbors. Just how out of line is China's currency? The Yuan (China's currency) is 40 percent to 50 percent too cheap relative to the U.S. dollar. Source: IMF China's export-centric neighbors are feeling the pain of China's artificially cheap currency, too. For example, based strictly on currency values, it would cost 37 percent more to import identical goods from South Korea than it would from China. Which is a Threat of Protectionism. Protectionism is an Enemy of Recovery to the global economy. It is widely believed that the world economy cannot find a path of sustainable growth until those key countries with lopsided trade become more balanced. Consequently, the G-20 has made Chinese currency policy its number one agenda, under the code word "rebalancing." China's unwillingness to let the Yuan strengthen could hinder global recovery. As it becomes increasingly evident that China will not play ball on allowing its currency to appreciate to a fair value, expect the geopolitical tensions to rise and expect to see two forms of protectionism follow: Trade tariffs and currency devaluations against major currencies, to which the value of the Yuan is primarily linked. And while a global economic recovery is already beginning to look like a longer road than many have expected, an outbreak of protectionism would likely derail recovery all together. That's why safety and capital preservation will re-emerge as the primary driver of capital flows around the world towards the U.S. dollar. Money and Markets by Bryan Rich

I love it... MONGO!!! Great.... this is getting to be such a rollercoaster...

Is America the New Greece? http://www.kitco.com/ind/Forest/feb242010.html

If all the bank employees knew what was going on, the bank would be left with no employees after the RV.... Management would actually have to work at the window again.... how degrading. I worked at a bank at one time... didn't like the way they operated.

"There will be 3 wise men from the East bearing gifts that will sustain you for 30 years." mrsrb.. gold has never decreased in value.. the value of exchange has changed (dollar value change).... Diamonds are forever, but its hard to get anyone to make change for them..

Well, I have to jump in here with my little knowledge of the coming events of our economy. First we have - I have been reading of the PIIGS countries... acronym for Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain. World is negative on these countries Bond markets. Last week the US Treasury had trouble selling their bonds to China... only 28% of long term bonds sold and 43% short term bonds sold. The pawns are in place and the Queen is on the move. A World collapse of the economies as we know them is inevitable. From a Cycle prospective, the 500 year Geopolitical change is in motion. With the dollar going down, evidenced by the increase in demand for Gold, Stock Market is being artifically stimulated by the Govt bail outs, Consumer spending and confidence is down and the GDP has been in a inverted slope for some time. This is not good for the world as we know it, but a shift of power, wealth and control will be moving from west to east within the next 2 years. By 2012, our economy will be down even more than it is now and the only way you can stay on top is by buying Inverse ETF's, Gold and Silver. Energy will be somewhat of a concern. Water will become a major concern. So I would say gold would be a good bet. May God Bless this Country and each of you. Best of Luck.

I'll take .80 and be done with this. It's like a car deal, they work you until you break... yea, ok, we'll take .80 and be done... then it increases in the next year or so to 2.30+... we left 1.50 on the table... so be it... As far as infrastructure, crime and oil production... it actually makes sense that it will RV low given those items of thought. They don't have a viable economy, for that matter the US doesn't have a viable economy and look at our infrastructure... it will be good to be through with this roller coaster, but the reward will make it worth it.

Shades of Vietnam.... MIA's and Prisoner problems. I wonder how many escaped to other countries to avoid the war and will never come back.

Prior to this redenominating process, it is indicated that the value of the dinar must first be increased. Again, there is still a lot to do. I will not go into details about the redenominating process as you can read about it yourself. At this time I will not agree or deny the articles and the information within. .............. You have to revalue the currency to a level that is sustaintable to the market conditions of Iraq. They are still a fragile up and coming economy and the rest of the World is in a nose dive trying to avoid having their bonds dumped by the rest of the world. Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Spain, Japan, France, Germany, United States are all having a sovereign debt problem. This is no time to RV a foreign currency just because you will make one country financially stable for a month or two. The infrastructure of Iraq needs to be such that it can produce the oil and be a viable market for agriculture, mining, oil and sustain their output to a world that has a demand for it. The current world debt problem will inevitably haunt us in the coming years. As long as the bond market goes along with this, the stock market will not be impacted. When we are forced to face reality of our problem it will be too late and the stronger countries in the EU will somehow take over some of the debt of the weaker countries. A delicate balance will need to be in place before the RV happens. It will need to benefit all involved in the current debt problem, but some of the stronger countries will not be willing to play along. We may all have to turn the monopoly board over and start this game over...

Where as before most of us would say…………years away…………months away sounds better. No one knows the date Family except for God.

The White House has announced federal deficits that are far worse than any prior estimates - $1.6 trillion for 2010 ... $1.3 trillion for 2011 ... and CONTINUING massive deficits for the ENTIRE decade. This is already sending shock waves of fear throughout the globe. It has prompted Moody's to issue a stern warning about America's credit rating. And it is raising the specter of a GLOBAL COLLAPSE in long-term sovereign debt. Global investors are in attack mode. They're scanning the globe for the weakest links - the countries with the biggest deficits - and they are DUMPING that country's assets. First they attacked Greece. Then they attacked Portugal and Spain. Inevitably, they will ALSO unleash their fury on the one country in the world with the biggest deficits of all: The United States of America. Despite vague vows by the Eurozone countries to rescue Greece, the underlying problem of massive deficits remains. An unprecedented CRISIS OF CONFIDENCE among U.S. taxpayers and investors. For the first time in recent memory, millions of U.S. citizens are taking to the streets in protest - OPENLY REBELLING against Washington! They're incensed that Washington is spending trillions of dollars to bail out greedy, incompetent and corrupt bankers, brokers and CEOs - essentially giving them the license to steal from us - yet AGAIN! They're livid that Washington is financing this spending binge AT THEIR EXPENSE. And they're fighting mad at losses totaling $22 TRILLION that Washington and Wall Street caused for everyday Americans in the Tech Wreck, during the Great Recession, and with the Housing Bust. All this supports the tenacity in holding inverse ETFs. And it stands as a stark warning of what may be coming to financial markets later this year. Right now, though, even in the midst of this drama, the stock market is content to follow its own, separate path and could CONTINUE to do so. Last week the intermediate buying opportunity was taking shape in the stock market. Today we still have no evidence to question that conclusion as the S&P 500 trades in a narrow range. Expect next week to bring a test of last week's low. But for now at least, all indicators keep showing that the decline of the past weeks is just a normal and healthy correction and not YET the start of a huge bear market wave. Historically, medium-term up trends, or cyclical bull markets within long-term or secular bear markets, have lasted a mean of 17 months and a median of 12 months. The version of the McClellan Indicator show the advance-decline statistics of the NYSE cover a very large share of the U.S. stock market. The middle of this oscillator came back to -300 during the first part of the current correction ... a level last seen in November 2008 and March 2009. Last week's lower low in the indexes was not confirmed by the McClellan Oscillator, making it a higher low. This constitutes a positive divergence - a bullish indication. But this formation is a bit short to be treated as a valid turnaround signal, hence some caution is still warranted. During the past few days, the oscillator made it back to the neutral zone, around the zero line. So the next few days, or at most two weeks, should be decisive. Either it shoots to the upside like it did in March, or it comes back down to form a more pronounced bottom. In the first case, you should be pressed to act quickly, dump any inverse ETF positions and get long in the market. In the second case, you should see a test of last week's lows or a slightly lower low, maybe a test of the rising 200-day moving average, which is currently at 1,023. Complacency Is Gone During December and the first weeks of January, stock market sentiment indicators showed pronounced complacency. However, bullish sentiment did not reach levels typically associated with important stock market highs. This configuration was and is just another argument that we have not yet seen the final highs of the medium-term up trend off the March 2009 lows. The number of bullish advisors have receded during the three weeks ending February 5, down to 34.1%. Bears rose to 26.1% making for a bull-to-bear ratio of a low 1.31. Other sentiment indicators show a similar picture ... the American Association of Individual Investors shows bears outnumbering bulls for three weeks. And the 10-day moving average of the CBOE put-call ratio rose to a relatively high reading of 0.95. Obviously, this correction has done a lot to restore the wall of worry so characteristic of medium-term or cyclical upward trends. We may still need some more backing and digging to find the bottom, which I expect to develop in the next two weeks. This may turn out to be the last, short-term buying opportunity on the way to the final top of this medium-term, up trend. What about Greece and Other PIIGS? Greece is important, but not for trading the markets. It's important because it serves as a signpost to what is in the offing in the coming years and how politicians will handle the situation. We've all known for some time that there is a sovereign debt problem out there - not just in Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, and Spain ... but also in Japan, the U.S., France, Germany, and nearly every other country on the planet. But as long as the bond market is playing along, this problem will not impact the stock market. This debt problem will inevitably haunt us in the coming years. And the easiest political "solution" will be to keep kicking the can as long as possible. In so doing, the problem will not be solved but instead aggravated and postponed. The somewhat stronger countries in the EU will somehow take over some of the debt of the weaker ones. And in the U.S. the Federal Government will come to the rescue of over indebted states. All of this will finally lead to a funding crisis, to a revolting bond market, and to rising interest rates. Then Helicopter Ben and his global peers will call upon the printing presses. And I'm convinced that they'll simply print their way out of this calamity. It's much easier than the bitter medicine of strong austerity programs. As you can see, it's not just the Greek population resisting and revolting a clear belt tightening ... it's the whole industrialized world. Gold Is Showing Remarkable Strength With the Dollar Index at 80 and Dollar Euro below 1.36, gold has shown remarkable strength. The market is oversold and the decline since the December high has the look of a normal correction. The 200-day moving average is rising, and prices have fallen short of testing this important support line currently at $1,021. This correction may have already ended. There is a down trend line at $1,100. If gold breaks above this resistance line, you should add to your gold position. The AMEX Gold Bugs Index has already tested its rising 200-day moving average. And it seems to be in a bottom-building process. Here, too, a buying opportunity is taking shape. Since we have been talking about what to do when the IQD RVs.. just thought I would add to your anxieties... Looks like we're in this downturn economy for the long run. Don't get your self in debt any more than you are and push yourself for more discipline in your financial matters. That is all... Carry on soldiers !!!

The Navy Chief The Navy Chief noticed a new seaman and barked at him, "Get over here! What's your name sailor?" "John," the new seaman replied. "Look, I don't know what kind of bleeding-heart pansy crap they're teaching sailors in boot camp these days, but I don't call anyone by his first name," the chief scowled. "It breeds familiarity, and that leads to a breakdown in authority. I refer to my sailors by their last names only; Smith, Jones, Baker, whatever. And you are to refer to me as 'Chief'. Do I make myself clear?" "Aye, Aye Chief!" "Now that we've got that straight, what's your last name?" The seaman sighed. "Darling, My name is John Darling, Chief." "Okay, John, here's what I want you to do ...."

http://media.causes.com/611645?p_id=44185871 This is the ultimate reason why the US and Iraq need to honor the Military... they gave so much for us to have this opportunity. Don't forget it!!

http://www.oanda.com/currency/converter/ nothing yet....

Don't think so... http://www.oanda.com/currency/converter/

Available options to buy gold as ETF... GLD Silver SLV Energy AENY.. up and coming company. Another issue is the Treasury Bond Bubble .. Watch it...

You mean to tell me that a possum that seems to be drinking or smoking or a Registered and Approved John Holmes s** addict are the best sources of information we have. I have read from .34 to 3.89.... I don't believe anything today... I'm waiting for the RV and then I'll shoot the possum and run John Holmes off...!!! Carry on men...

rlecomte, good point... the US is printing paper FIAT CURRENCY 24/7 and trying to spend the US out of the recession... it can't be done. Good financial debt management is the way to go. If we don't back off from spending, we, the US will pay for it the hard way... No simple answer, but if we can print all the money we print and be the "least ugly" of the Bonds that are being sold with what we have backing the US $ then IDQ should be considerably stronger than the US $ because of their oil reserves. We don't make anything anymore... we are service oriented country. Gold and Silver were the only types of currency that were approved for use by the Original Constitution. Paper is just Paper...

I read this one and thought we were going to have to play poker to get our money... I said well, looks like I'll lose after all !! I'm not too good at poker...

And has anyone noticed that there are no female-guru's....LOL And they say WOMEN like to gossip!!! Oh.. so the 26,000 words are from gossip.... I wondered about that when I was told that statistic... jk....

"the RV will happen at the same time for everybody so in the end it won't matter who says what and who was right or wrong." Popo24... I agree with you... Not only will it not matter then, it doesn't matter now ... Most everything, other than posted from specific site information is speculation anyway. I have noticed that even some of the "confirmed" information has been wrong. I just wonder if anyone knows who is really running the show in Iraq. What's the old saying....Too many chiefs and not enough Indians.... (I wonder where that originated from) BTW... does anyone know why women speak at least 26,000 words per day and men only say ~6500 words per day...? Me either.....

I have thought about this some... I am going to look at what I want and then I'm going to buy what I need and use the difference to help someone that needs the help. After all, it's only money and cars depreciate so much....

Can you say investment income. When you have a bank and start to lend to people, they can get a 10x return on the interest (in the US anyway). If the bank lends to 10 people @ 6% and you have 3 out of the 10 that are bad loans, your return is still ~42%. Banks can invest in Treasury Bills short term... long term are scary with the current continuation of printing of money. Greece 10 year bonds went from 112.295 in Oct 2009 to a collapse of 92.13. Portugal's 10 year government bond also declined. Spain, Japan, Great Britian are starting to get hit. It is a "least ugly" situation for the US that keep the US Bonds a go to. BUT the yields are lower and the price is higher. With a $1.4Trillion out of control federal deficit last year and another $1.4 Trillion projected for 2010 Washington has buried its head in the same mound of sand as Athens and Lisbon - grossly underestimating the size of the dificit and the potential impact on investor confidence and the speed by which its bond prices can fall. Our current Adm ignored advisors who warned of a deficit disaster and has only just begun to seriously consider deficit-reduction measures, but continues to avoid steps that can make a significant difference. There has been some talk of the TARP funds being given back to the taxpayers, but that is not possible because the TARP funds are on a Liability side of the equation and when paid back will only be used to remove that liability on the balance sheets. I say we invest in Short term Treasury Bills, GLD and annuities. That's my plan anyway.

http://townhall.com/cartoons/