ametad

Yeah, I’d want to revisit this before opening the pipeline for export if I was Turkey.

That’s gonna kick this operation into hyperdrive. If you like this episode there are three more in the series, it’s interesting.

ok, seriously though who is not getting their oil? And not contractually, or who gets a cut here and there in the process. But, where are the physical oil deliveries going? If global supply is only .5% Iraqi oil through Ceyhan, how much of the supply to Ceyhan is Iraqi oil? What percentage of Iraqi oil is transferred through the Turkish port? Are all shipments out of the Turkish port of Ceyhan stopped at this point? Perhaps it is just a reduction in global shipments. Certainly this amount of oil can be shut off for a few years until this is settled. However, I would like to know how much of an impact it will have and to who.

If only some comedians would make a skit about this… Turkey - closes pipeline Iraq - demands tons of $$ from Turkey for the oil that already went through Turkey - conducts air strike on Iraqi airport Iraq - wants pipeline open Turkey - demands economic amnesty from the past in all respects of the pipeline Iraq - asks the United States to strengthen international judgement by Paris meanwhile - someone isn’t getting their oil deliveries You can’t make this kind of material up.

Hmm, interesting. Turkey may be locking things up which could accelerate the 2018-current judgement and de facto accelerate the HCL. I wouldn’t be surprised if Turkey keep exports closed for another month and we see this all come to a dramatic finale Mid - May. This is exactly the pressure needed to create change.

Soon, next month. Well it fits into what I was thinking, mid-April or into May as being a good window. We will see how this plays out.

BRICS will resolve this problem, or Iraq decides to settle in yuan with Iran; either solution would work, and both solutions leave the USA out of the middle of economic relations between bordering countries halfway across the world.

Probably not what you want to hear, two years before settlement in the international arbitration for the 2018-current time frame. Although, it could be a possibility that an HCL come into effect before that and becomes the foundation for that resolution.

I think it’s just one step closer. This agreement can be signed by parties to resume the flow of oil through Turkey. The HCL will need voted approval through legislation. As I understand, this agreement allows for temporary export and lays the foundation for the HCL to be voted on in the Iraqi due process. This agreement hinges on a binding international arbitration from 2016-2018. I believe that the HCL will be pegged to the 2018-current international arbitration, which is pending.

This may be leading to a permanent solution. I’m not to excited, especially that something is happening soon. However, this development as stronger potential than I’ve seen before.

Good Progress

Oh, so they are using the later time frame of 2018 - present to nullify current contracts. The understanding will be through international courts. This will allow them to align the HCL within Iraq as a priority to the current global corporate contracts as Iraq restructures through SOMO. Fascinating, we will see how this plays out. Meanwhile, they will get oil flowing again through Turkey as they set the main foundation set.

Still looking like a window from Mid-April to Early May on this timeline for a HCL to be signed into effect. The preliminary agreements will come first, signified by oil flowing once again through Turkey with money moving along the proper channels. If this money can be traced and verified as legitimate, they will sign long term laws (HCL). With an HCL to distribute that money to projects to help improve the quality of life for Iraqis we would be on track for positive progress. Just my two cents, unverified thoughts in my mind.

umbertino, you’re bringing good content over from The Guardian. Sounds more like a voice of the average Iraqi than other information I’ve read. Thanks

Seems like a fair point. Both countries invaded another without UN approval.

It’s hard to imagine what is better, the brutal rule under Sadam or this chaotic filth. Saddening, but a good article

Iraq war 20 years later: See how the country has changed TODAY 4,906 views Mar 20, 2023 WOW! I have no words for how they are justifying the invasion with imperialist intentions. Like an American University in Sadam’s Palace is a symbol of a good thing. 🤯

Iraq war: UN after the war - Iraq Today 20 years since the start of the US invasion on Iraq, the war didn’t just leave deep damages on the country but also on the United Nation. The US launched the operation without the UN support or approval, which damaged the credibility of the UN. The war have affected Iraq for generations, people say there are some improvements and gains, but it’s nothing compare to the loss they had, loss of social security, sense of cohesion, divisions from all life aspects, isolated and left behind.

How the US invasion shaped Iraq

A lot of truth here. A good read, one to bring a grounded reality.

This is good news, perhaps we could see something materialize between mid - April and the first of May.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see a amendment to the budget before mid-April that adjusts this percentage up to 14.

Looking like mid-April for budget approval.

This is good. I am hopeful to see real electrical infrastructure built. Iraq electrical independence would be fantastic for the energy sector!

14% seems acceptable, a negotiated middle ground for the 2023 budget. I’m curious if that will be the same for an HCL, as they don’t necessarily need to match.