Investing in Dinars: 11. Finally Iraq Makes a Committment

[BennettS]

Thanks for all the interesting information.

[Storm Trooper]

Thank you for the detailed post

[keylime]

rt59, as I promised earlier on chat here is my response to you.

You wrote this:

"Enorrste, the only way to draw them (IQD) in to eliminate them is to make them worth something, ie an RV. That is the easy part, paying for them is the hard part. You say people (in country) or governments (out of country) will put money into banks or hold in federal reserve. That is fine, but backed by what?"

Now, since you are paraphrasing my own words in most of this there is obviously nothing that I can disagree with in it! So I will just deal with your question at the end.

Your question is this: what is backing the RV?

In order to answer this question we must first ask if it is a legitimate question, and the answer is that it is in fact NOT a legitimate question. I can say this with ample authority, since RVs have occurred throughout recent history with no proof whatsoever that the country doing it could afford it.

In fact, and more to the point, there is absolutely no way to quantify the question. If you know of one and can apply it to any country in the world, I would welcome that. The reality is that even the IMF itself has trouble deciding what value to place on any currency in the world. Admittedly they use a lot of "models" and "theories" and probably a huge database of various sorts of "figuring", but in the end the number that they come up with has nothing to do with what you have suggested in your post.

The bottom line is this: the reserves of a country have very little to do with whether or not they can afford to RV. Admittedly, they are a factor, but they are only one factor, and almost certainly not the most important factor.

The IMF has stated in its own position papers that its goal is to evaluate countries in the world based on their "inherent wealth", whether in natural resources, manufacturing, tourism, or even "good will". I have never seen the IMF use currency reserves as one of these factors, although obviously it is among the many factors in the long list that determines a country's inherent wealth.

Now, if we were to even attempt to try to figure out what is "backing" the RV, we would only be able to do so in a general sense. I have written two chapters to attempt to give a comparison that would show that Iraq is in position to afford the RV. In this latest chapter I added the reserves as another element in that view, but not the only element.

Here I will add a few more elements, none of which is sufficient to "quantify" the "backing" but when taken with other factors, and all eventually, you will get the picture.

First, MM17 reported today that the EU is sitting on about 280 tons of gold that belongs to Iraq. That would be a nice place to start, and I see no reason why that gold cannot be considered in this situation since it has to be returned to Iraq in time, and definitely after Chapter 7 is released.

Next, and most important in my opinion, is the known reserves of oil and natural gas in Iraq, currently estimated conservatively at second highest in the entire world. Whether this is a "realized" reserve or a "potential" reserve is moot, just as the "full faith and credit" is only "potential" and not "realized", thankfully.

Next, Iraq has let out contract to build its tourism in a grand way. As an example, it recently let out a contract to turn Babylon into one of the biggest tourist sites in the world, on a par with the great pyramids. The site will have a 7000 acres international airport. The US Corps of Engineers will help restore the archaelogical site for tourists. Hotels and spas will surround the ancient site.

Next, contracts to rebuild the remainder of Iraq have been signed. I will only mention one: in Najaf they are planning to build 135,000 residences, a university, shopping centers, and on and on.

This underlying wealth of Iraq is almost certainly the single biggest factor that the IMF would consider when determining a fair RV rate for the IQD. We have read that the IMF is recommending $1.49, but I cannot verify that. Still, it is an interesting number and has floated around for months. How do think that number came up?

In summary, the question you ask is not appropriate. There is no way to quantify an answer. But there is a way to "see" what is obvious, and that is that Iraq, of all countries in the world, is better poised to afford an RV than any other country in the world. And that is NOT an understatement.

The most obvious comparison to Iraq is Kuwait, whose dinar is at about $3.90 now. They have much less oil in reserve, are substantially smaller, and have no water. I submit that water will become as big a "money winner" for Iraq as oil is now. Just think on that a bit. Two large rivers run through this desert. Kuwait has none, Saudi Arabia has none, and on and on.

I think if I go on I will lose the audience. I submit that my case is made.

Steve

well said. well thought out. And you could have gone on and on and would not have lost me as an audience. Much more interesting than that tediously boring report about redenominating a currency which I read, understood, but still feel like it has very little to do with Iraq's current agenda and situation. Let's just say, Iraq is going to rewrite the book.

[rt59]

rt59, as I promised earlier on chat here is my response to you.

You wrote this:

"Enorrste, the only way to draw them (IQD) in to eliminate them is to make them worth something, ie an RV. That is the easy part, paying for them is the hard part. You say people (in country) or governments (out of country) will put money into banks or hold in federal reserve. That is fine, but backed by what?"

Now, since you are paraphrasing my own words in most of this there is obviously nothing that I can disagree with in it! So I will just deal with your question at the end.

Your question is this: what is backing the RV?

In order to answer this question we must first ask if it is a legitimate question, and the answer is that it is in fact NOT a legitimate question. I can say this with ample authority, since RVs have occurred throughout recent history with no proof whatsoever that the country doing it could afford it.

In fact, and more to the point, there is absolutely no way to quantify the question. If you know of one and can apply it to any country in the world, I would welcome that. The reality is that even the IMF itself has trouble deciding what value to place on any currency in the world. Admittedly they use a lot of "models" and "theories" and probably a huge database of various sorts of "figuring", but in the end the number that they come up with has nothing to do with what you have suggested in your post.

The bottom line is this: the reserves of a country have very little to do with whether or not they can afford to RV. Admittedly, they are a factor, but they are only one factor, and almost certainly not the most important factor.

The IMF has stated in its own position papers that its goal is to evaluate countries in the world based on their "inherent wealth", whether in natural resources, manufacturing, tourism, or even "good will". I have never seen the IMF use currency reserves as one of these factors, although obviously it is among the many factors in the long list that determines a country's inherent wealth.

Now, if we were to even attempt to try to figure out what is "backing" the RV, we would only be able to do so in a general sense. I have written two chapters to attempt to give a comparison that would show that Iraq is in position to afford the RV. In this latest chapter I added the reserves as another element in that view, but not the only element.

Here I will add a few more elements, none of which is sufficient to "quantify" the "backing" but when taken with other factors, and all eventually, you will get the picture.

First, MM17 reported today that the EU is sitting on about 280 tons of gold that belongs to Iraq. That would be a nice place to start, and I see no reason why that gold cannot be considered in this situation since it has to be returned to Iraq in time, and definitely after Chapter 7 is released.

Next, and most important in my opinion, is the known reserves of oil and natural gas in Iraq, currently estimated conservatively at second highest in the entire world. Whether this is a "realized" reserve or a "potential" reserve is moot, just as the "full faith and credit" is only "potential" and not "realized", thankfully.

Next, Iraq has let out contract to build its tourism in a grand way. As an example, it recently let out a contract to turn Babylon into one of the biggest tourist sites in the world, on a par with the great pyramids. The site will have a 7000 acres international airport. The US Corps of Engineers will help restore the archaelogical site for tourists. Hotels and spas will surround the ancient site.

Next, contracts to rebuild the remainder of Iraq have been signed. I will only mention one: in Najaf they are planning to build 135,000 residences, a university, shopping centers, and on and on.

This underlying wealth of Iraq is almost certainly the single biggest factor that the IMF would consider when determining a fair RV rate for the IQD. We have read that the IMF is recommending $1.49, but I cannot verify that. Still, it is an interesting number and has floated around for months. How do think that number came up?

In summary, the question you ask is not appropriate. There is no way to quantify an answer. But there is a way to "see" what is obvious, and that is that Iraq, of all countries in the world, is better poised to afford an RV than any other country in the world. And that is NOT an understatement.

The most obvious comparison to Iraq is Kuwait, whose dinar is at about $3.90 now. They have much less oil in reserve, are substantially smaller, and have no water. I submit that water will become as big a "money winner" for Iraq as oil is now. Just think on that a bit. Two large rivers run through this desert. Kuwait has none, Saudi Arabia has none, and on and on.

I think if I go on I will lose the audience. I submit that my case is made.

Steve

Enorsste, thx for your response. I lost my connection earlier when I tried to reply, so I will make it short. That was only one of my questions..have no problem with Iraq's perceived wealth. It is the ability to come up with the liquid assets for exchanging currency post RV that is the biggest issue. They will have to have trillions upon trillions of dollars ready for exchange for individuals and countries too at $1 RV. Or many governments will have to be willing to hold there IQD's for many many years for exchange. This means that they are willing to bankroll the exchange in the own countries or Iraq has a problem. Just the individual exchanges will be a big problem even with all of the rumored gold coming back to Iraq. I am not willing to hold my IQD for future exchange with Iraq..what ever that might be. Here is to hoping that you are correct and that I am wrong....come on RV. Let's see what you got!

[mannamay]

Very good to hear, thanks.

[indymom]

I appreciate the information you have shared with us!

[needinrv]

Thank you. A lot of thought went into this. Ok, now I need a to think a lot about it.

[VooDooWarrior]

Enorrste .... Thanks.....

[zeeke]

nice update what can you get us on about chapter 7

Zeeke

[zeeke]

Zeeke,

Thanks Enorrste for your view on the recent announcement as always great Job, There seems to be several opinions out there that the 25,000 notes or any of the 3 zero's monies will have a lesser value the the new notes that are to be issued . Where do you stand on this and would you mind taking stab at this as why you think this is not so.

Thanks

Zeeke

[Lonnie]

Good information to ponder over. Thanks for sharing.

[zeeke]

when do you think you can give us a new update

Zeeke

[braywilkins]

Very nice work........

[petie64]

Does anyone know if we can exchange large notes for smaller ones and where would we do that?

[malachi]

There is no doubt in my mind that your must have some type of formal schooling or training in the basic of ecomonies on a international level. However for you to take the time and break this info down for the least educated person I would like to give you a perfect score of 10. Thanks many times over Enorrste

[safetymankwj]

one thing to remember is that in all of the redenomination articles there was new bank notes introduced into the system and they were called a different name. They were used in the smae period as the larger notes and the "new" currency was equal to the old or previous currency. The naotes that the iraq governemnt is speaking of usiin is not a new note and was printed at the same time the previous notes were printed. There is no new name or term ofr them and they are leagal tender right nowe you can go see them on the CBI website. This would lend credence to to fact that they will not loop but they will both be legal tender at the same time. It will naturally move to the lower denomination due to the purchasing power of the 25k note which will not be used as much (no one will want to keep change for it in small shops)and will be traded in at the banks for the lower deniomination notes as a matter of convenience.

[safetymankwj]

wish I could spell better trying to get thoughts out of my head.

[zeeke]

like to know do you have an update base on new information

Zeeke

[nmcneill]

Enorrste as always a great post.......but it now the 13th of Feb.....past your prediction of a RV......any thoughts?

[zeeke]

Enorrste,

We would all like to know do you still look for things this week 15 or 16th Feb or do you now think this will unfold later in the year?

Zeeke