Kurds are Iraq's kingmakers

[Traconesu02]

A report published in the Guardian suggests that the long drawn-out process of forming a new government in Iraq has taken a new twist. It tells not just of the usual overtures by Iran towards Iraq's major Shia parties, but also of a region-wide, collaborative effort that brings together Syria and the Lebanese Hezbollah movement for the purposes of installing a government led by Nouri al-Maliki and supported by Moqtada al-Sadr, the anti-US Shia cleric who is currently exiled in Iran.

That would essentially establish a formidable anti-US union in the region comprising Iran, Iraq, Syria and Hezbollah in Lebanon. As the US prepares to withdraw from Iraq completely at the end of 2011, it could see itself embarrassingly sidelined as a result, with its Gulf allies left vulnerable.

The US is therefore working with its long-time Iraqi ally, Ayad Allawi, in a desperate effort to assemble an alternative coalition that would keep out Iran and the Sadrists as much as possible.

Allawi and his Iraqi National Movement (INM), who won 91 seats in the elections last March (two more than Maliki's State of Law coalition), are tenaciously working on a coalition plan that includes the Kurds (57 seats) and the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI) – with 18 seats – which historically has been supported by Iran but is now politically weak. That proposal includes reluctantly putting forward Adel Abdul Mahdi of the ISCI as prime minister – an idea that has the backing of the US.

These developments mean that the Kurds have emerged as kingmakers. Iraq's Sunni Arab representatives, in the form of Allawi's INM and notable ultra-nationalists with alleged links to Baathists, will have to choose between making concessions to the Kurds – over Kirkuk, oil and power-sharing – and paving the way for an Iraqi state and government heavily coloured by Sadrist and Iranian interests.

The next few weeks will also be a test of US influence as well as Kurdish leadership and foresight. The Kurds in Iraq are arguably the last remaining viable entity over which the US has some respectable degree of influence. Their demand for a referendum to determine control of Kirkuk has been largely pushed aside – not just because of reluctance in Baghdad but also as a result of US pressure.

Beyond US concerns that a referendum will ignite civil war, Washington in this respect has also played to the interests of Turkey and other allies in the region. However, the time may have come to finally give the Kurds Kirkuk, not least since Maliki is reportedly accepting almost every other Kurdish demand.

With provincial elections in Kurdistan looming across the horizon and the Kurdish opposition party Change criticising the Kurdish leadership for putting self-interest (power, money and influence) ahead of Kurdish interests, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) led by Massoud Barzani and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) led by Jalal Talabani should be acutely aware that this is their opportunity to shine.

The current political stalemate in Iraq is, therefore, a litmus test for the Kurds. They hold the power to determine the future of Iraq's other groupings, the future of the country itself as well as that of the US role in Iraq as it prepares to withdraw completely at the end of 2011.

Crucially, therefore, the Kurds must decide whether to pursue the interests of Kurdistan or those of Iraq. The US may attempt to persuade the Kurds to hold off making any decision and slow down the momentum generated by the unlikely Maliki/Sadrist alliance, one that it hopes, in time, will eventually be dismantled. Yet, with delay and compromise marking the Kurdish role in Iraq, at least in the eyes of the Kurdish population, the time may have come to exercise leadership and decisiveness.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/oct/18/kurds-iraq-political-stalemate

[SteveI]

Great information. I posted this earlier.

[Maynard57]

Well, make a king already! Jesus Jennie!

[thegente]

The Kurds need to sh!t or get off the pot already.

Edited October 19, 2010 by thegente

[icutiewatcher]

Great post...thanks.

[panamajo]

If anyone gets Al Jazeera TV they just did a special on this in the last half hour. I'm sure they will do a repeat throughout the evening. Things are heating up!