Friday Midnight Guru Opinions - 15 March 2019

[ronscarpa]

3-15-2019   Newshound/Intel Guru Mnt Goat   ...On Wednesday I called my source in the CBI and had a chat. I am not hearing of any target date for this week or over the weekend to reinstate the dinar on FOREX...Again, I am telling everyone we are just now waiting for the last 4 ministers to be seated (especially the interior minister) as the Iraqis have been told many times they need a “fully” formed and functional government or they will not be allowed to reinstate the currency...Meanwhile I am told the CBI is ready and has been ready. They have had a lot of cleanup on the banking and currency fraud with the currency auctions. But at the point it will NOT stop the reinstatement once approved. They need desperately to move forward...(post 1 of 2)...

 

3-15-2019   Newshound/Intel Guru Mnt Goat   ...the CBI...must wait for the GOI and IMF to give the green light. I was told that no smaller category notes have yet been launched only more of the existing 250, 500 and 1000 notes in the ATMS...but what about the much lower 100, 50, 5, 10 and fils? Yes, this is an important question to ask for as far as Iraqis are concerned the lower denominations are out already but not the ones we are looking for...(post 2 of 2)...

 

3-15-2019   Newshound Guru Adam Montana   Oil saw a nice upward spike yesterday. We're not quite to $60, but the trend is still positive. I expect it to pull back a tiny smidge, then continue the steady pace in this direction...I'm not saying "the day OIL hits $60, we will have an RV"!  $60 was the direction I wanted to see, and we're basically there. As long as the current trend continues, we are in the (green) zone.  Steady and controlled oil prices, + steady and stable GOI, + some HCL goodies...that's what we're looking for, and it keeps coming!...(post 1 of 3)... 

3-15-2019   Newshound Guru Adam Montana   One item that is of note, and may push us out just a little bit, is the budget/fiscal year. There is a LOT of accounting to be done with any kind of monetary change, and it would certainly make things cleaner to change the rate on a specific date that coincided with something logical like the start of a fiscal year or quarter, or perhaps the beginning of a new budget, or something like that.  We are a couple weeks away from the end of Iraq's first fiscal quarter. Their fiscal (XYZ) can be a bit confusing because they don't get the new budget out until after the new fiscal year has already begun, and in the past they have stated that surplus in the budget applies to the following year.  Oh, there's nothing like proper planning, where the first three months of the year you have no idea what's in your checking account or what bills are in the mailbox...(post 2 of 3)...

3-15-2019   Newshound Guru Adam Montana   That's nothing to concern us, of course. In fact, with the steady progress we're seeing in all other areas, the prospect of a currency value change at the start of Iraq's Q2 is a pretty reasonable thought.  In other news... not much I can say right now!  Parliament is in session and WORKING. We don't have an announcement, but all of the clues are saying *soon*.   I'll be monitoring...(post 3 of 3)... 

 

3-15-2019   Newshound/Intel Guru Mnt Goat   So far, no voting in parliament on the last 4 ministers. Saturdays promised voting was not completed and postponed yet again. However no new date was confirmed or announce right away. Article quote:  "The candidate of the Minister of the Interior has not been agreed upon so far, but Fayadh officially withdrew his candidacy."   So another article says that the PM is now able to put his own selection of candidates forward and vote on them. We are told they plan to try again in Thursday 3/21. 

 

Have a great St. Patrick's Day Weekend everyone....Blessings...RON 

[pokerplayer]

Thxs Ron. We can only hope.

 

  pp