Darin

Wow, you must be optimistic.. Logic says from the possibilities that Luigi post, that the higher up the alphabet, the better the scenario for us. Z is at the end of the alphabet, so that means we see the best possible scenario.

I would argue that many of us here, believe that the overnight value adjustment is a pipe dream. Sure some of us may toy with the idea, but in reality, many of us deep down know that not to be true. What we hope for, is to see profits.. Whether we are holding for years to see a value of a penny or decades to see it rise to the value of a dollar. But in terms of length, some of us may sell prior to movement because we are fed up with waiting. The overall hype is dying down and I doubt people are even close to buying like they used to. If anything, some have been selling back to whoever is willing to take them. Well, I will always view Fib as short for Fibber when I see your username.

True, it says it within your username itself "FIB" Short for fibbing or fibber. haha

feeble minds are easily entertained.

The site was and still is a good idea.. They seek out the names behind those that tell us lies. We can view that information for ourselves and use it to justify our opinions. The followers of that site are a different story... Basically the ones who comment.

It doesn't guarantee a higher exchange rate, but it sure doesn't hurt its chances...

Thanks SWFG, it always seems nice to hear more information about WTO accession. People have to remember that the country itself, was for many years hindered by heavy sanctions. These sanctions prevented regular trade that many other countries were able to do. Their only way of importing goods was through a Oil for Food program to feed their people. With the lifting of economic sanctions, the country can now grow in other sectors. When comparing the ratios of how big their oil sector is to other sectors, OIL will always "trump" the other sectors only because it is their biggest source of income. So even as their crude exports increase, their private sector will increase while the ratio remains relatively the same. We don't have to view that as a bad thing, as the private sector grows it has a positive ripple effect. As oil profits go into rebuilding the nation, more jobs are created which lowers unemployment. As unemployment decreases, more people are working & receiving an income. They in turn, take that money and spend it for goods/services. What would be nice to see, is if they were to try to focus more on strengthening the private sectors as well.. Agricultural would be a good stand point along with manufacturing facilities so they can start creating goods themselves. Whatever route they take with their currency, I do believe that their region will see a higher standard of living in the future.

Its not a forum, its more of a blog. They heavily criticize gurus and do the background on them.. Whether the background is given forms of proof of who the real people behind the screen names are hold truth? Who knows.. I don't frown upon the site & what it stands for, but I am not fond of those that follow on that site look to stir trouble. They do provide good information when they're not trying to bash gurus, even though most of it is information you may not care to hear as it does not support what we hope for. But that information does provide us with less than hopeful outcomes. But that information provides us with being balanced and helps us know that even with the rumors, information does exist that goes against it.

I'm aware of the D-bags site... I didn't think they would be about censoring. Kind of ironic, because you know that other sites w/ pumpers do censor quite harshly. Therefore, if that case be true, I just lost more respect for that site. Some of the nay-sayers here live at that site, or so it seems. You will maybe recognize them by their older usernames. They do provide some good information, and I do respect their original goal (which is to de-bunk pumping gurus) but what some of the sites members do outside of that, I do not agree with. But, to each their own... What ever helps them sleep at night, right?

I'm quite horrible when it comes to bookmarking. And since I jump from a laptop to a desktop a lot, I can't even sometimes be in a position to reference recent history. I was Googling random words through Google and looking for interesting articles to read from boredom the other night. 1 main article that really stuck out to me was the overall cost of the Afghan & Iraq war... Estimates were in the figures from 4-6 Trillion dollars. Number of lives lost at 190k+ But another interesting one, was someone who had gone and was pulling finances where a lot of the funds were being spent... It basically covered where the contracts had went... How much money was simply wasted & so forth. Rather interesting article An example of one bullet point was how they had the De La Rue issue new notes when Iraq had their own printing press and could of simply done the same with having a few updates to their print press. Another interesting example was how they allocated X amount of funds to build a cement factory I believe, but Iraqis did it for a fraction of the cost.. The article itself was interesting for two reasons... 1.) The amount of money wasted & likely funneled to greedy hands based from corruption 2.) How many contracts went out to US Corporations. Another example was the money allocated to help implement the new currency within the banks and the costs... & that they even fell short of what was required to fulfill the the needs to pay for the implementation. Long-story short, it was basic foolish spending. But - while also reading it, you get an idea on how much rebuilding has been done through funds allocated to Iraq. One would have to think that over the years, that the economy will have recovered. If you look at the unemployment rates, you can see that they've dropped significantly. While they are a region mostly dependent on Oil, their other sectors are vastly improving. Their % of income will always mostly be oil, because even as other sectors continue to grow, so will the oil sector. But what many fail to consider, as other sectors grow, the exports of those sectors will grow as well (Which may lead to increase foreign demand of their currency to pay for their goods). Agricultural, minerals, precious metals, livestock, fishing, etc. Than as manufacturering companies become functional and so forth, that'll improve. This is a factor most often not considered because so much emphasis is put on oil/crude for their country. Which during trade restrictions, that was basically the only thing they were even allow to export. But recent trade restrictions have been lifted and the economy is healing. The people will likely soon benefit of a more glorious nation, just sadly, it appears the people at the top have to be greedy and try to maintain and increase their power first.

Thanks for the post SWFG... I know that I have read that Bank restructures are scheduled to come to a conclusion in June of 2013... Makes one wonder how that relates to the recent articles coming out about trying to close the gap of the market/official rate (or even raising the exchange rate, if we have been interpreting the articles wrong).

If the dollar started deteriorating to the effect that the dinar is... Wouldn't you safe-guard yourself to some other investment channel to safe-guard your wealth? Also, if the dinar is deteriorating like they claim, would you believe less and less merchants are willing or accepting dinars as payment? I'd also make a strong prediction that the deteriorating value is based on neighboring sanctioned regions (See Iran & Syria) in a high demand for dollars. Its not so much that the average Iraqi is likely losing wealth from chasing the dollar, if anything they may be exploiting the neighboring regions being in such high demand of it. Therefore, the average citizen in Iraq may take their dollars and trade with neighboring merchants as they are the benefactors of trade because what they are using to buy is in demand..... So neighboring merchants are willing to give more to receive those dollars. Here is a scenario... Lets say a farmer in Iraq has chickens for sale and he sells them for about 50,000 dinars a chicken. (For the sake of this argument, lets say that the official rate is 1000:1). Therefore the value of his chicken is $50 that he is selling. Neighboring Iran has a farmer who is seeking to sell chickens for dollars, but he sells his chickens for $40 a chicken. Now the price of that good is more competitive. The customer, the buyer of said chicken, was able to buy from a neighbor for a cheaper price. The customer benefits from the cheaper price, but the Iraqi farmer loses out on a sale. It has its pros & cons, but if they're acquiring goods that are not easily attainable in Iraq, than many within Iraq benefit. Why does the Iranian sell his chickens cheaper? Because he can not come by dollars with such ease & they must sell their goods more competitively. They will want their the USD so they can in turn go to other neighboring countries to use their dollars to buy other needed goods. To follow this example, maybe the Iranian needs to go to nearby Turkey to purchase grain seed to feed his animals, but needs dollars. How does one potentially fix this problem? Dollars are in demand - therefor those holding dollars stand to profit from the trading imbalance between the two parties.

I know I don't like to stray off topic when posting, but I felt I should add this. I recall a couple years ago, another person used to post very short posts... Almost like they were trying to boost their post count. But they never really contributed any information. Don't ever recall the username of that person or whatever happened to them.

But your a skeptic, shouldn't your name mean its your obligation to be skeptic of everything? Hey Skeptic! The earth is round, bet your skeptic of that. All joking aside, it very well could be a misconception of what he saw. He may of seen what he saw, but the way he interpreted it, may have been wrong. Skeptic, you seem like your drawn to negativity...... You should Google "How wealth was taken from Iraq" Shows how many Corporations were able to basically seize assets of Iraq for their own gain...

U.S. side, many of the dinars sold may easily have been recirculated. Some who buy from DT, may turn and sell on eBay. Some who buy on eBay may turn and buy, realize that it was not the get-rich-quick scheme they hoped and turn around and sell it back to a dealer. Some may sell to others through private sale, simply to redeem a portion of their losses. But with that said, regardless of how much is sold through some figures may not be obviously accurate as it can obviously be re-circulated. I sometimes find it entertaining that any slight move of the official rate will equate to a sudden run on banks. I bet even if they broke to a $0.01 value that not everyone would be so quick to run to the banks (Some will, dont get me wrong), but a lot of speculators, I bet, would continue to speculate. Than you can consider the new speculators who come in and buy thinking that it may be a feasible move as the currency is on an upwards trend and they hope that the value continues to improve from than on. But lets say in reality, that doesn't happen anytime soon and the bulk purchase is slowly depleted back into the system.

Thanks SWFG - I'd really love to get you added on Skype - if possible. But I'm not much compared to some of the other great researchers you listed, as I'm just only an optimistic person I've seen him do a few chats on other sites.. But his presence isn't what it used to be. I believe he's just living life and hanging with his family.. I think I'll find this one extra interesting due to having a lot of Norweigan background in my family. Plus, this guy seems to have a lot of the essential tools to give us a realistic outlook. I hope he has positive things to say.

I think many fail to realize that with their current exports being predominately oil was due to recent trade restrictions from sanctions. With the recent lifting of the trade restrictions, they've recently been able to start legally exporting goods. This will help improve other industries that are not dependent upon oil exports. The oil exports will be good as it helps rebuild the war-torn country to improve their infrastructure. For the most part, exporting oil will always be their main source of GDP in terms of percentages. While even their economy does grow with private sectors, manufacturing, or even the mining of precious metals and other resources, their infrastructure will have improved to produce more barrels per day which will lead to higher volumes of crude pumped out. If the money is used properly to rebuild the country properly, other sectors will form and improve. This may create an external demand from other countries to buy their goods. We can look at unemployment levels, as they are steadily decreasing which is a good sign for the country. This will mean that internal demand will maintain as well. One of the current problems is a need for de-dollarization. If they can get the people to prefer dinars over dollars, this may close the gap of the market rate and the official rate. You are probably right. I know from reading that June of 2013 is when bank restructures are supposed to come to a conclusion. This may play a factor in how they close that gap. Still won't change the demand from the public simply by who trades the cash. The market rate may close in on the official rate, but that just makes dollars even more appealing. They will continue to seek dollars over dinars. No incentive to keep using dinars if dollars are available and widely accepted.

Economic growth within the country may allow for other economic sectors, other than oil/gas to allow for higher external demand for dinars to pay for those exports. They may have a lot of oil & gas, but that is not the only thing that they export. As the economy improves, other areas will improve as well which will lead to higher exports. Keep in mind, this is a region that was once heavily known for its agricultural sector. Okay, so if you have a high amount of agricultural goods, previous metals, and other manufacturing facilities exporting to nearby regions, this may allow for a heightened demand for dinars. By the way, your math is wrong. For a $0.10 R/V, they would need roughly 7.5 trillion dollars in foreign cash reserves to back a $0.10 re-value with 100% liquid assets. The 750 billion figure would be necessary for a $0.01 R/V. That is with backing a M2 at 100%. Changing the regime of how the dinar is valued is a possible scenario. Much like prior to 2009, the value was on the rise on a daily basis (little by little). Back than, demand was quite high for dinars internally & externally. Maybe the demand was too high as a lot of dinar may have left the borders of Iraq as that may have concerned the CBI and they wanted to halt speculation.

Internal demand doesn't allow for 1166 to be respected. If the currency can become a currency that allow foreign demand, a whole new can of worms is available. Their value is set by their exchange regime. Their exchange regime is not set in stone, it can change. An overnight dime R/V? Highly doubtful, making their way there by amending their monetary policies... Probable.

A 'huge' gain is a long-shot. Many grounded people here may consider that to be true. Some of us are hoping to see some changes for the better. Maybe switching back to a crawling-peg regime will provide a chance for the official rate to rise. Is it possible for them to switch back to this currency exchange system? Of course so, history in recent years shows that they have done it and it can be something that they switch back to... So we may see small improvements from time to time, but if overall the adjustments are continuously in our favor, than we may see profits. Many of us here are doubtful of a huge R/V. But the definition of huge may vary among most. I highly doubt that I will wake up and find out one day that each unit of IQD is worth $0.10 or higher, but achieving $0.10 in the long-term is not impossible. But, we can all sit here and argue the future, but none of us can see it but only offer opinions. All investments have downsides... You can lose a little bit of value or possibly lose an entire investment. But to say it is impossible to reach $0.01 is rather entertaining. If it requires 100% of liquid asset reserves to reach that point, I can see that your argument holds some ground. But, its not like they'll stick with 1166 forever. Changes may eventually have to occur. They may reach 1000:1, they may make their way to 750:1 from there, and slowly continue rising the value. Overnight? Hard to see it as a possibility... But it could reach that point. The downside is even Iraqis within their own nation do not have demand for their own currency. They seek dollars. Must not be a whole lot of incentive to hold dinars...

It wouldn't be so bad if they actually tried to give their opinion of a postiive result, but they only try to attack any possibility. To me, that's raises a flag that they're here for trouble. If they had a vested interest, they would at least try to argue positive outcomes that are more realistic and how. Anyways, from seeing what some of them post, or names they reference, I can tell you DV is not their home site as I can pretty much guess what their home site is they frequently visit. KeepM is a good example of a person that we should respect. We know he has a vested interest, but he does see that how many view what may happen is highly unlikely. He remains here and contributes, because he still hopes and can possibly see a profit to be made.

Thanks Yota! This article states raise the exchange rate. Still could mean market rate, but wouldn't be surprised to see the official rate change as a potential solution.

Well, your right! Optimism or pessimism will not change the result of a speculation. But if you lean too far one way or another, you may fail to either see the potential gains (if your a pessimist) or fail to consider the risks (if your an optimist). With that said, this is where my argument sort of relates too. The people who criticize any potential postive solution are just as bad as the gurus who never provide a possible negative solution. To provide some real-world examples: When Apple introduced the i-Phone, their stocks were on the rise. Rumors of lawsuits for copyright infringement of the name scared some potential investors from continuing to make profits from gains. Those that ignored those risks, had the opportunity to see gains. I recall speaking with an investment advisor about gold. He said Gold was a bad investment and that he was telling his clients to sell gold. Some of the ads in the media were hyping gold. Shortly after this, gold started to go on rise and hit all time highs. This was coming from someone who made a profession providing investment advice. So you see, from my experience, I have learned to doubt everything and learn from myself. Which is something I try to support others to do. I have made some friends along the way through this speculation that are still doubtful yet see potential. They're very balanced and do not see it happening to any rate the gurus provide, or to the time frame they provide as well. If anything, it appears this will yet be on-going before we start to get a better handle on what changes may unfold.

To further elaborate on point # 2 - I do not fault anyone for wishing to hide behind a mask to provide a service to a community. In some circumstance, they are only providing their opinion and would not become subject to scrutiny if they are incorrect. I would easily commend those that do provide their background, but many people will be quick to judge that person and look for ways to use their name and or background to points out issues they have for the information that they provide (that would likely come from the skeptics). The super positive group would seek out that same person desiring additional information to feel as if they have their own personal contact. Look at the bank stories and how many of these banks may have received numerous & unnecessary phone calls due to ridiculous rumors. This type of actions by some of this community may have been a factor in why some banks no longer (or claim to no longer) deal with anything IQD related. To further elaborate on point # 3 - Viewing economics as a theory, in my opinion, much relates to how psychology is much like a theory. In some cases, there are really no right or wrong. It is quite obvious we are comparing apples to oranges between the two, but some similarities do exist. If you subtract out the mathematics from the equatoin of economics, you will see a lot more of it relates to theory. (I.e., Keyneisian, Austrian, etc along with different types of exchange regimes). You claim that you are not pessimistic or optimistic. But no one as a speculator likely has any information of what the future will bring upon any future changes the CBI implements. They could implement a new official pegged rate at 1000:1 without any warning. And if this were to happen, some in this community may consider that a R/V. Any of us here who have a vested interest, likely wish to see some gains. The questions to be answered is by how much and when, and will it slowly be drawn out over years as we only slowly make profits. If you can't see any significant R/V, are you able to provide any potential solutions from your point of view that would provide a profitable scenario? Most people with a negative slanted view are quick to criticize, yet they fail to ever provide any positive outcomes to any extent or level. (And if they do, they normally say it in a way that it has a negative connotation).

For claim # 1 - It doesn't take long for many to realize that some of the informatin provided by those is simply nonsense... If any speculator has been following for an extended amount of time and still falls for the nonsense, that is their problem. If you look at the Rumors sections, many laugh at what they post and find it as entertainment. Some of it can be educational for some as certain parts of their posts are de-bunked. For claim # 2 - I can understand why some would rather not put their name on the line. Imagine if your Name & Phone # was plastered on the internet. Even with your views not being what many favor, I bet you would get bombarded with phone calls or e-mails. We as a community have sort of brought this on amongst ourselves. Look at the banks, I am probably sure many of them quit dealing with IQD due to endless e-mails, phone calls, and in-person questions. We can't blame them if they hide their personal information. No reason to criticize them for that.. For SWFG's future interviews where the names and other information is provided, I would actually feel bad for those people because I would put $ on that they will get hounded for additional informaiton from those who speculate. For claim # 3 - Economics is more of a science of theories. It does have some 1+1 = 2 to it, but not everything is written in stone that it is the correct motion. Accounting has principles that decide right & wrong, but overall monetary policies and the idea of economics does still include economic theory. With that said, not every theory is right or wrong. Some ideas may work better in some circumstances over others. I.e., Imagine if the USD had to have liquid assets to back the value of every dollar printed (including electronic). I'd hate to see what our dollar would be worth overnight if that policy was implemented. On a side note, I never understood the need to be pessimistic so frequently. Being optimistic never hurt no body and sometimes provides good results. If a person here has a vested interest, yet is pessimistic, it would appear that they are covering both potential results so they can feel the false satisfaction if their prediction comes true while if what they truly wants does occur, their prediciton is wrong yet they truly benefit. Lets say your watching your Favorite NFL team play and you make the prediction "I am sure they're going to lose.." If they do indeed lose, you feel satisfaction of being correct, but in reality you truly wanted them to win. False satisfaction will not truly make us feel better. Now, if you are not somehow or some way invested, yet you are here being pestimistic, I question your presence as it appears your only here to stir pots. Every forum has a pessimistic group or community. Forums exist for many different things, Cars, Firearms, Gaming, Electronics, and so forth. I would be willing to bet that every forum has had their trouble makers to some extent. I.e., Lets say your a member of a Chevy forum, you may have a Ford fan come in and stir pots trying to argue that Ford is better than Chevy. Your presence is simply to cause slight chaos with intention to ruffle feathers for your own entertainment. For any of us who have ever frequented other forums, we may have seen this type of activity. For the pessimistic people, looking to stir pots to some extent who have frequented other forums of interests who were annoyed by this type of presence in their favorite forums, I say this.. "You are now that guy..." Skeptic, I must apologize if you feel insulted by this question. I see that your join date was very recent. I question your intentions, as if you were a previous trouble maker trying to hide behind the mask of a new username.