au-oilfutures

Well said; and to add to the list, I would include both the Japanese Yen and the Swiss Franc. And of course, exchange when the USD is strong to them, which it is not at the moment, although, if the Euro keeps being run up, the USD will keep getting weaker, in which case you're too late.

Or maybe the greatest gift in life is FRIENDSHIP...

At least MRO ditched their downstream so now it's a better company to invest in. The other big companies would be Hess (HES) and Continental Resources (CLR). This gives a good overview, including companies in the Bakken: http://oilshalegas.com/bakkenshale.html And actually, we import the majority of our oil from our maple neighbors to the north. And the Bakken field does go into parts of Canada.

Gold is still undergoing a correction (the strongest since 2008). About oil, very big discrepancy between U.S. (West Texas Intermediate) and global (Brent), which is +$100 at the moment. Technically lowest level before significant bidding would be around $1290, then after that, $1100, then in "everybody hates gold" scenario, around $1000. But held $1300 very well the past two weeks, so definitely a bid at current levels. Commodities will continue to rise long-term until there is significant demand destruction. Doubt that an IQD RV would have much of an impact, and if anything, an RV would push commodity prices higher since the RV would mean a weaker USD, which is the normal stimulus for surging commodity prices. Silver continues to outperform but the better PM to invest in is Platinum - far less supply and very important for the surging global auto industry. And REMs, via select companies (i.e., Molycorp) or thru the new ETF (REMX). In any case, bullish commodities will continue to be the more profitable stance to maintain for the next 10 years.

Understood. But I do know a few money managers and advisors who lost and gained clients, due to not watching markets closely and clients panicking, and the fact is, while the indices dropped 30-40%, some stocks lost more. And from what I heard, most clients went ape**** when the market crashed. And just because markets turn around (and they always do), maybe you fail to realize that there is a cost to the market turnaround, and that is TIME VALUE. So you owned a stock you bought in 2006 at $50, and 5 years later, and after the 2008 crash, it is back at $50; so it sounds like break even, but fact is, you lost 5 years investing money is something that maybe had a gain in 2007 but is now a break even. Do you teach your clients about TIME VALUE??? Also, I don't advise, but I think any true professional advisor should discuss with clients the potential of futures - if there is any way to get large returns and utilize time value, it is with futures - but when you convey that commodity investing is risky, I think you are doing a disservice to your clients. Commodity futures demand a lot of discipline of course, but the returns can be outstanding, AND, they are better than equities regarding cap gains taxes.

OK, about #2, did your colleagues inform their clients who were overweight equities to get out of those markets in late 2007 / early 2008 as it was clear to many that we were going to crash? I know some folks who are quite mad because these so-called "investment brokers" didn't do anything to prevent them from experiencing catastrophic losses that resulted. And then this brings me to your #4 - if you are commission driven and trails (building your BOB), then how can you bash someone who says you're little more than a salesman, which is what I think you are? The fact is, your 1st role is broker, advisor, trader, or analyst. But if you're a broker then you are sales first. And about #6, investing in commodities is actually less complicated than equities or index futures - you're dealing with price only, not all of the nonsense that now infests the equity markets.

Understood. And I find the "teacher" thing very curious - why would anyone want to teach trading unless they've already made a lot and want to do it as form of charity (and teaching is basically a form of charity) - in which case, making money doing so is less relevant. I don't object to anyone wanting to teach, but never thought that in the world of trading it would be something done for financial gain. If a futures trader makes +$10K-$15K a month using even less margin just by swingtrading, could they match the gains expending energy on teaching, which of course can be quite demanding? Also interesting that you've had quite a 7-year education in Forex - so you can obviously imagine how hard it is for most new traders. Anyways, thanks for sharing the info - very helpful.

If you do not recommend Forex, then how's about recommending other reliable brokers? Also, just because a pair is not considered volatile, does not mean that it doesn't experience volatility. If anything the EUR/USD is currently quite volatile. It is more liquid so spreads will be better. And if going on a 5 minute timeframe, then definitely volatility is something desirable. And, if going on 5 minutes, one had better have a solid grasp of technical analysis because that's the only guide that will increase the chances of making anything. From my experience and having seen dozens of aspiring traders go at it, learning on 5 minutes usually leads one on the path to quick ruin. The longer the timeframe the stronger. Each timeframe beneath the next is subordinate - so 5 minutes is subordinate to 15, 30, 1 hour, 4 hour, 1 day, 1 week, 1 month. And I've never read one well-known and successful trader or trader/educator who recommends starting with a quick timeframe and moving out - it is usually the opposite. Check out Larry Williams or Dr Alexander Elder - neither recommend daytrading as a means of learning how to trade. But if one wants to trade to alleviate boredom, then by all means, daytrade. If one wants to make decent money trading, then don't. Which is why craigslist is so infested with prop trader offers showing up several times a week - each new trader has to plunk down $5-$10K just to join (so-called training fees), and this immediately puts the trainee into a big hole, with no guarantee of income or success. No one ever talks about attrition, of course.

While it's very pricey, do not overlook PLATINUM - there is even less supply out there. Right now about $1800 per troy ounce, but still off its 2008 high of $2300. And it is an industrial metal as well, esp. for the autos. And, one can also buy platinum coins.

Exactly - those are probably the 7 most liquid currency pairs, and there are at least a dozen more actively traded pairs where traders can make decent money. Bottom line is, why would anyone want to trade an USD/IQD pair, if it doesn't move? Traders don't make money trading currencies that don't move. Time also is money, and if you invest in something that doesn't move, then you gain nothing in terms of value, yet you LOSE TIME, which is the other significant value in investing. As far as the banks, a large incentive for dealing in forex (on the retail level) is for those exchanging currency for travel. Those who want to INVEST in currencies (with the intent of capital appreciation), without actually engaging in forex trading, often use the banks' financial services segment, in which case, this dept will probably use any of the so-called ETFs or ETNs that are supposed to contain actual currencies or either futures or options contracts. At least, that's what I was told. Or as you say, buying physical from dealers.

RJBoots, thanks again for the info. About GNI...yes that's quite a waterfall drop, and in such instances, best to wait for what we traders call "dead cat bounce", before considering buying. As to what happened, hard to say other than major profit taking after a nice run up, and it's pretty thinly traded (less than 20K shares per day before the plunge). Also, when dealing with stocks, you have what the CEO tells you, and you have what the charts tell you, and always found it better to listen to what the charts tell you, if there's a discrepancy. The CEO doesn't give a crap about whether you're breaking even or underwater on your investment in his company, so you should protect yourself and deal with what the chart is telling you, because it's the chart's talk that's reflected in your account, not what the CEO says. Don't forget, Kenneth Lay, Jimmy Cayne, **** Fuld; they spouted off while they stock continued to drop. Not really a facebook user, but yes, I'll check you out. Not much into equities like I used to be, but I still keep tabs on several companies (energy and metals). Cotton futures are even more interesting than stocks now. Live cattle also, but right now I like gold - the volatility makes for good short-term trading.

Thank you to you and to PoleCat as well for the first-hand input. And if you are with or related to GM, hopefully you got in on their IPO...not that I agree with how it was all done, but as far as you holding appreciating assets. I guess the real hot ticket for autos at the moment is anything "rare earth metal" (MCP, for example). But I heard, Toyota is looking at alternatives to using REMs, since China is playing dirty with their monopoly on them. Do you really think the US Govt or the FRB (who continues to prevent any attempts at being forced into some transparency) would actually disseminate such information? And, the FRB could easily buy IQD if they do not already hold it. And, I think there are too many other "situations" where the US taxpayer has been / is being screwed big time over the last 4 years, but I'll refrain from commenting on this. Finally, wasn't a lot of the "March Into Baghdad" in 2003, a lot about confiscating Iraqi assets (old Saddam dinars, gold, bonds)? Perhaps some vets out there would know.

Also, supposedly, QE2 is in some circles considered a "chess move" by Bernanke, toward China and their currency manipulation; do you agree?

Greatly appreciate the comments, very informative indeed. I'd suspected the auto mkt was Asian-based (mainly China), but the fact that the industry is moving here, I would think, is a positive. But from what you're saying, our economy is very selective about health and sickness, and the sickness pervades large segments of the population. I can't think anyone could believe that the housing market has gotten any great deal better. The underlying concern about China is the RE bubble - as well as their equity market, which continues to lag the other EM countries. The 2005-2007 bubble, that was fed by retail investors (the new middle class), and if they are still skeptical about getting back in (a lot of them got burned on the subsequent fall), that's not going to be a positive in terms of increasing their net worth, especially if they're leery about the RE bubble. The bond market got way overbought and in need of a correction, and corrections ALWAYS need a catalyst, and the Bernanke QE2 (or the Jackson Hole talk, I forget) was the right tool. I follow and trade gold futures as well, and as you can see, gold is in a corrective mode, or at least in a very volatile topping phase. Platinum is doing better, and I suspect that this is related to the autos. But gold is in serious need of a correction and you can bet the farm that once it's done it's on its way to +$1500 and more. Silver is still the odd-ball - much of the rally was of course a major squeeze on JPM and HSBC, but now that supposedly a lot of the positions have been covered, can demand still push it to a more respectable ratio to gold? And now JPM is supposedly now trying to corner the now-hot copper market. Then there's iron ore - just watch VALE and BHP. You must be familiar with Chuck Biderman of TrimTabs, he monitors fund flows, and he again commented the other day that QE is responsible for the equity market rise - QE1 in March 2009 brought a +50% rise in the S&P 500, and QE2 has brought another double-digit gain. When QE1 finished up, the markets began to topple (late April). His comments about initiating QE2, at Jackson Hole at the end of August, set off this latest rally. You are obviously bullish on the commodity group (I'm assuming both actual and equity related) and I cannot agree with you more - that's where the best long-term returns are going to be. And your last two statements are spot on. So if you think the USD is on the road to ruin due to our debt, then I suspect you are looking at other currencies as well as the PMs. I'm hoping my IQD pays off but fortunately I can participate in the futures and currency markets to try to make ends meet. Wishing you a great 2011.

Sorry to hear about your situation. And if you don't mind my asking, as you were in the auto industry and have a good pulse of it, do you see any signs that things are turning around? You'd think, with the way auto equities continue to rise and how GM stock is pumped up just out of its IPO, and with the MSFM continuing to shout how things are getting so much better, everyone looks at the rising US stock market (though the underlying belief is that it's the Feds propping it up), it would be nice to hear what you think about how the overall economy is, other than it's not helping you any. I keep reading about more people getting laid off, but yet the MSFM keeps saying things are slowly getting better. Thanks and hang in there!

If you are using the forex site then you should have access to a lot of useful information, first go to the "getting started" section http://www.forex.com/getting-started.html Aside from this, I suggest as basic advice: 1. Learn to trade one and only one currency, against the USD (unless you are European, then trade one currency against the Euro). You will need to learn how it moves, and each currency has its own behavior and its own significance - for instance, the JPY is considered safe haven (becomes stronger during volatile market periods), whereas the AUD is considered an inflationary currency (goes up with oil and pretty much opposite the USD, unlike the yen, which can go up even if the USD Index goes up). And stick with the active ones - Euro, AUD, CAD, JPY. Better spreads. But if you're really interested in something like the BRL or CHF, then you can focus on those. But stay focused on one. 2. Pick a timeframe and stick with it - if you are wanting to hold a position for at least a few weeks, don't start daytrading. You will get confused and stressed and eventually drain your account due to not being disciplined. 3. The old adage is still true - buy low, sell high. But you will need to learn some charting to determine when to buy when it is low, and when to sell when it is high. Contrary to what a lot of fundamental analysts want you to believe, charting is vital to successful trading, so you'd better take the time to learn the basics. Charting shows you price action, and price is all that matters. Good luck.

If the market were to drop if the IQD was to RV, then it would probably be a good idea to invest in IQD.

For the "minor" currencies and for all of the ticker symbols, try XE http://www.xe.com/ You'll have to check w/ FOREX to see if they allow practice with the minor currencies, but if you're just getting started you're still better off learning how to trade the more active ones (EUR, JPY, AUD, CAD), vs. the USD. It will also benefit you to take up learning some basic charting techniques as well, if you do not already have some experience or knowledge of this already.

How's about backing up your dubious assertions? And come on, Adam hasn't been proven correct on the IQD yet, so why would anyone want to take him seriously yet, instead of considering an real investment in precious metals, which continue to go up in value despite periodic corrections? Pick one - gold, silver, platinum, palladium - and tell me that it's not worth investing in when it experiences a temporary drop in value. Same for oil.

Actually, both the AFN and IDR are currently strong vs. the USD, so now, not exactly the best time to be buying them - you buy w/ USD when the USD is strong against them. If the USD surges here in the coming months (due to the Euro problems), then you should see a better rate than what you see now. CAD as a hedge vs. the USD, in a way, yes , but gold and oil and even stocks are the prototypical hedges against a weak USD. Any of the commodity currencies besides the CAD, like the AUD, BRL, they work the same way but are better than the CAD because their economies aren't as closely connected to the U.S. as is Canada's. The AUD is probably the best commodity currency to play against the USD.

Don't put much "stock" on anything supposedly said by any Wall St." insider". Wall St. is largely responsible for the problems our country has now, and they in conjunction with the WH are a duopoly running this country now. If this Dinar RV were to happen, you can bet that Wall St. already has a plan to profit greatly from it, and profit at the expense of the retail IQD holder. I hear BAC and JPM regularly being mentioned as places to buy and cash it - well, aren't they two TBTF banks that got bailed out by you, the U.S. taxpayer, and/or got access, along with the "bank holding companies", to the Fed discount window and were able to borrow huge amounts of money at 0% interest? And didn't JPM acquire Bear Stearns in March 2008 largely because Bear had a lot of Iraqi bonds in their portfolio, bonds that were reportedly stolen by the CIA when U.S. troops took control of Baghdad? And yes, it is the nature of stocks to fall at a much faster velocity than they climb. This is the primary attraction of speculative short selling - the large and quick reward for doing so and being correct justifies the risk of putting on a short position and getting squeezed.

Buying BP was definitely a great value investment - although, no one knows how they are faring financially, and much of their move higher is based on the entire energy equity sector moving higher and just being way oversold. Probably the best integrated energy is CVX, but it's too pricey now. The real curiosity about this group is whether the downstream side will continue to be a drag on their bottom line.

This is rather confusing and curious - if the value of the IQD goes up, then ALL currencies against it (and remember, currencies are always paired) will fall, and assuming that the USD would also DROP against it, that would push gold prices much higher. A rise in the IQD would also push the Euro lower, which would then push gold up against the Euro. If anything, the IQD will eventually be categorized as a "commodity currency", like the AUD, CAD, BRL, and will move similar to those currencies. But, I don't think gold's price will be reflected directly by an RV - gold's moves are based PRIMARILY (but not always) on what the USD is doing in relation to the other major currencies, and this includes the Euro, Yen, AUD, CAD, CHF, GBP. And there have been occasions when it decouples from the USD - like in the beginning of May when financial markets got shaky. Gold is in the 9th year of its bull market cycle and showing some signs of developing a top, and such a long duration would normally suggest that its trend is mature and in need of a serious correction. But with the need for the U.S. and other countries to keep their currencies suppressed, any major drops in price will immediately catch a bid, especially in China.

According to XE, Afghanistan is AFN And IDR is for the Indonesian Rupiah http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=EUR Click on the dropdown "Chart from" or Chart to", and you will get the list of currencies with their respective ticker symbols. And the recommendations about silver here are spot on - much more upside. Just realize that it's trading at a bit of a technical premium now.

If the so-called "vets" are getting ulcers over this SPECULATION, which is what I consider this, rather than an INVESTMENT, then perhaps this game is not right for you. Better to focus on high quailty S&P 500 stocks or dividend plays, or PM investing. Second, the moment you call this an INVESTMENT, you are automatically assuming an implied responsibility to pay capital gains tax, assuming you do gain. The concept of if being a currency exchange, exempt from taxes, automatically goes out the window. Third, I'm assuming that the term "newbie", which is what my status currently is, refers to how long they've been a member on this site. We are "green" to the extent that we are unfamiliar with transaction procedures should the situation call for reaping our return. Fine. But I would like to ask, how long have you so-called VETERANS (some of whom have been members less than 4 months) actually been in possession of your IQD? I purchased mine in May, 2004. I did so thinking at the time, when the CPA was still the governing authority, that it might someday pay off. But I also did so with the assumption that the odds were against my investment ever paying off, or I actually bought bogus bills, or that the situation in Iraq would take forever to improve or another major conflict would occur. But I have never lost a night of sleep, have never gotten an ulcer, over what I still consider a speculative venture. If you want to get stressed out about speculation, try futures trading, where you can get wiped out pretty bad in one trading session. Put $30K on going long 5 platinum contracts and watch half of it disappear by days end (and getting a margin call, of course) and then see how you sleep that night. Call me arrogant if you want, but I would think that while I am a newbie to the site and the transaction procedures, I consider myself a veteran (compared with many others that I have seen post here) in that I saw the potential in this speculative venture when I did and could afford to risk going for it, with no guarantee of a return. I also believe that should I benefit from this speculation, I should also keep in mind that my gain has come at a huge price to so many people who have died or have suffered greatly, that I won't feel upset if it doesn't pan out, AND that I maybe I should herein refrain from what I consider petty discussion about "newbies" and "experts" and "VIPs".