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Everything posted by Carrello

  1. What the hell does an election have to do with the exchange rate! The PM may want to use the exchange rate politically and push the button prior to an election to gain support. Okay. But the actual worth of a currency or the revision of an exchange rate has nothing to do with an election. Ask Kuwait. IMO the PM would lose the poor as supporters keeping the exchange rate low for 4 more years.
  2. All you Christopher Columbus wannabes keep dreaming.
  3. By all means spend billions for nuclear power. Sun and wind are wildly abundant and these types energy facilities would cost a fraction of the nuclear cost, would have no deadly consequences, and would takes a few years rather than a decade to build. Is this a Russia Chernobyl joke or an Iranian ploy to keep making money supplying Iraq with necessary electricity?
  4. Petra, it seems ... "The six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council -- Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates -- have been running currency pegs or managed foreign-exchange regimes since the early 1970s. Kuwait pegs the dinar to a basket of currencies believed to be dominated by the U.S. dollar, while the others are linked solely to the greenback." Why Gulf Dollar Pegs Are Strained by Oil and Virus By Abeer Abu Omar and Netty Ismail | Bloomberg May 18, 2020 at 12:29 a.m. PDT Although the decades-old currency pegs of the Gulf Arab region often come under strain in depressed oil markets, they always have survived. This time, however, energy prices are at historic lows and the coronavirus outbreak has unleashed recessions that are squeezing government budgets like never before. With some of the Gulf currencies under pressure from speculators, are the pegs facing their sternest test? 1. How are the pegs under pressure? As Saudi Arabia embarked on an oil-price war in March by boosting crude production, traders were betting through the derivatives market that the region’s currencies would weaken within a year. Such a scenario is possible only if countries abandon their currency pegs. Fixed exchange-rate regimes in Asia were swept away during the currency crisis of the late 1990s, when speculators forced the likes of Thailand and South Korea to abandon their links with the dollar. Currency pegs are now largely confined to the major oil producers in the Middle East which appear unwilling to let them go. 2. Who has pegs and why? The six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council -- Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates -- have been running currency pegs or managed foreign-exchange regimes since the early 1970s. Kuwait pegs the dinar to a basket of currencies believed to be dominated by the U.S. dollar, while the others are linked solely to the greenback. With oil and gas priced in dollars, the pegs have helped shield the countries from the volatility of energy markets and allowed central banks to accumulate foreign-currency reserves in the good times. Indeed, the robustness of pegs relates in large part to the size of countries’ foreign-exchange reserves and foreign assets held by their sovereign wealth funds. 3. Why the concern now? Most of the Gulf countries remain heavily reliant on hydrocarbons to pay the bills -- Saudi Arabia gets around two-thirds of its revenue from oil and Kuwait about 90% -- so the slump in prices has put the region’s economies under huge stress. As the price of Brent crude crashed by more than half in March, Saudi Arabia, the largest oil exporter, depleted the central bank’s foreign-exchange reserves by $27 billion that month, a decline of more than 5%. 4. Have we been here before? The system has survived stern tests, including successive years of low oil prices in the 1990s, a period of dollar weakness before the financial crisis in 2008 and another oil-price crash in 2014. Speculators jumped in then to challenge the Saudi peg, with 12-month forwards -- which investors use to bet on the peg breaking or to hedge in case it does -- climbing to an all-time high of 3.85 per dollar in 2016. (The peg is 3.75.) Instead of choosing to devalue the riyal, the kingdom cut spending and subsidies and turned to debt markets to fund its budget deficit. Its neighbors have adopted similar strategies. 5. How have those strategies fared? Progress in diversifying revenue away from oil has been mixed as have attempts to rein in spending. Government debt as a share of gross domestic product has jumped across the region since 2014. Saudi Arabia will run its seventh consecutive budget shortfall this year and the U.A.E. is on course for a record deficit, the International Monetary Fund estimates. It all points to the need for drastic economic measures to combat the twin punch of low oil prices and global recession. The Saudis in May announced a trebling of VAT and lowered state allowances. 6. Which pegs appear most vulnerable to speculators? Saudi Arabia, the U.A.E., Kuwait and Qatar all have the firepower in the form of sizable currency reserves to defend their pegs. The Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority said in May its foreign-exchange reserves cover 43 months of imports, as it reaffirmed its commitment to maintaining the peg. The most vulnerable appear to be Oman and Bahrain, given their precarious public finances and strained reserves. Bahrain requires an oil price of $95.6 a barrel to balance its budget, while Oman needs $86.8, the highest in the GCC, according to the IMF. Bahrain at least has the cushion of a $10 billion bailout package from its wealthier neighbors. 7. So Oman is the weak link? Possibly. It lacks a backstop credit line from its regional allies and may also pay the political price of having resisted taking sides in regional disputes or supporting Saudi Arabia’s foreign policies. As the largest non-OPEC oil producer in the Middle East, Oman faces a seventh straight year of budget deficit, with this year’s set to widen to 17.5% of GDP from 9.7% in 2019, according to S&P Global Ratings. In its favor? The fear of a domino effect should the first peg in the region go. S&P said it expects other GCC nations to come to Oman’s rescue should significant external liquidity pressures threaten its peg because any contagion effect could hurt the region. 8. What’s so bad about a broken peg? As well as spurring speculators to challenge other pegs, any devaluation would raise the risk of inflation taking grip through higher import costs, reducing people’s purchasing power and eroding real incomes. It would also lower the value of local savings and may prompt capital outflows as citizens move their money overseas to safeguard its value. Given that dollar-priced oil and gas remain the dominant exports, the region’s economies would be unlikely to gain much from weaker currencies. Options for countries post-peg include moving to a managed floating exchange rate or -- for those tied to the dollar -- to a peg against a basket of multiple currencies, as Kuwait did in 2007.
  5. Thanks, Laid Back! "Sterilization is a form of monetary action in which a central bank seeks to limit the effect of inflows and outflows of capital on the money supply. Sterilization most frequently involves the purchase or sale of financial assets by a central bank and is designed to offset the effect of foreign exchange intervention."
  6. I hope your know-all attitude is beneficial for you, but I would get to know some of the personalities here before judging and advising members. I don't know of anyone that would say I am paranoid or afraid or anyone. Many of us have love-hate relationships but we have been here a long time with a common goal. Some are good researchers and always share when they discover useful information. Others have degrees and/or experience in business and finance, legal, government, military ops and interpret and guide members on BIS, IMF, WB, WTO etc. comments and guidelines. We have a myriad of members dedicated to bringing information and opinions to everyone. We have many teachers but lecturing is not our preferred mode of communication. If you join the conversation it may be beneficial to you, and who knows, you might learn something. I know with my advanced degree, extensive international travel and living in other countries, and decades of business experience, I have learned a lot here, and I know when the hip boots need to come out. Most here do. Boo!
  7. I read the UK has taken Iraq off the high risk listing for money laundering:
  8. If anyone is wanting a better understanding of a "float" the IMF article below is very beneficial: "Moving to a Flexible Exchange Rate How, When, and How Fast?"
  9. Washington accuses Iran of "dominating" Iraq: We were informed in advance of the strikes 2019-12-30 15:57 Shafaq News / The American envoy to Iran, Brian Hook, said that his country will continue to respond to any attacks targeting American interests in the region, indicating that the American army is in Iraq at the request of the government, and there are American military forces in some bases in order to help the Iraqis In the fight against terrorism. Hook added in an interview with Al-Hurra, that Washington will not tolerate Iranian chaos in the region and in Iraq, which does not care about its interest but rather wants to dominate it. Hook stressed the need to deter Iranian acts of terrorism in the Gulf region, and the need to impose sanctions on Tehran, especially because of the killing it committed against its own people. He revealed that US Defense Secretary Mark Esper had informed the Iraqi side before launching the strikes on Kataib Hezbollah sites in Iraq, indicating that these strikes enhance Iraqi security against attacks by some Iranian militias that have also killed a number of Iraqi soldiers recently. Hook pointed out that the Iranian regime is facing the worst economic crisis in 2019, and in 2020 it will face a more difficult period, noting that the Iranian people also demonstrate and demand the removal of a 40-year-old oppressive regime. On Sunday, American forces launched a series of raids on bases belonging to the Iraqi Hezbollah Brigades, which led to the fall of 25 fighters. The US strikes came two days after a missile attack on an Iraqi base where US forces were present, and for the first time, the killing of an another site in Iraq.سیاسة/واشنطن-تتهم-ايران-بـ-الهيمنة-على-العراق-أبلغنا-مسبقا-بالضربات
  10. "I wish I could PM you as I have sensitive, personal information of which some parts I could share with you but as it relates to my circumstances I am not prepared to publicly post it." Blackrobes, per your quote above, why would you want to share "sensitive, personal information" with Eosirl, who you just came into contact with here, but not the rest of us? At this point we are all strangers to you. Perhaps you two have a kismet, synchronistic type relationship since you both are new here, each have 12 posts, and seem to have similar objectives. Wow! Not to say you should not be careful even in a synchronistic relationship because the charlatans and guru wannabes are always out there in Dinar World. Nobody wants to be a sucker. Does anyone know the whereabouts of Mountain Goat? Maybe I have just missed her posts. Her stories were always intriguing and fun to read. She's probably just living the dream up on that Austrian mountain with her goats with a hot line to the CBI. Who would have guessed.
  11. Moving articles provides organization rather than having random subjects mixed up which is very confusing and disjointed. I appreciate when Yota moves anything I post that makes more sense in another thread. Thanks Yota!
  12. Screwball, President Biden doesn't attend these meetings. The State Department handles them. This should give you a great amount of relief and lessen your stress over these negotiations.
  13. Zafer Al-Ani to / NINA /: We are looking forward to seeing the major American investment companies in Iraq Wednesday 07 , April 2021 Baghdad ( NINA ) - Deputy Chairman of the Parliamentary Foreign Relations Committee, Zafer Al-Ani, affirmed keenness to have a long-term partnership with the American people. He told the Iraqi National News Agency ( NINA) Our people have paid a heavy price for the wrong policies, and we should not repeat them. We are grateful for what America has done in helping us defeat terrorism, and we appreciate its sacrifices in this field, and we hope that this will continue. Al-Ani expressed his aspiration to see the major investment companies working to rebuild the devastated provinces, revitalize the economy, and expand educational, educational and cultural relations for a better common understanding between us. Today, a new round of strategic dialogue started between Iraq and the United States of America. / End 3
  14. EastCreek, considering your obvious opinion of President Biden and his capabilities, I would be interested in your thoughts on the strategy, goals, and tactical developments discussed at the SOFA meeting and referenced in the article I posted above. Thanks.
  15. The joint statement of the new round of strategic dialogue between Baghdad and Washington 20:56 - 07/04/20210 The information / Baghdad The joint statement, to the Baghdad and Washington talks, on Wednesday, affirmed that the US forces and the so-called international coalition will shift to training missions, allowing the rest of the combat forces to be redeployed outside Iraq , confirming that the US forces are in Iraq for the sake of fighting and not for the purpose of advice and training, as they were. Washington claims. The statement stated, and received by "the information", that “According to the 2008 Strategic Framework Agreement on the relationship of friendship and cooperation between the Republic of Iraq and the United States of America, the Iraqi Foreign Minister, Fuad Hussein, and the US Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, chaired the delegations of the Republic of Iraq and the United States of America in a meeting. The Higher Coordination Committee via video call on Wednesday 7/4/2021. The two sides reaffirmed the importance of the strong bilateral relations that are beneficial to the Iraqi and American people. Discussions covered issues of security and combating terrorism, the economy, energy and the environment, political issues, and cultural relations. Representatives of the Kurdistan Regional Government also participated in the dialogue. The two countries reaffirmed the importance of the principles of the Strategic Framework Agreement, and the United States reaffirmed its respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Iraq and the relevant decisions issued by the Iraqi legislative and executive authorities. He added, " Iraq and the United States are aware of the difficulties caused by the Corona virus and the global economic slowdown, and they reaffirm their strong economic partnership." The United States also commended the recent steps taken by the Iraqi government to join the New York Arbitration Agreement and introduce a system of "granting visas upon arrival" in order to enhance international trade and foreign investment. Both countries intend to work closely with each other as Iraq commits to implementing reforms in order to diversify its economy, improve the business climate, and provide assistance to create a more vibrant private sector. The American delegation reaffirmed that American companies can provide assistance in diversifying the Iraqi economy by investing in projects that will create jobs, improve public services and help develop energy resources in the country. The two countries also discussed the importance of increasing cooperation between them to combat the Corona pandemic. Where the US government contributed by providing funds to renovate and equip Iraqi public health laboratories, and donated corona virus testing equipment and personal protective equipment, in addition to training Iraqi epidemiologists on ways to identify and respond to current and future outbreaks of the disease. And that "the United States expressed its support for the efforts made by Iraq to reform the energy sector in order to provide cheap electric power with fewer interruptions for the citizens." The two countries affirmed their support for Iraq’s decision to diversify its energy sources through building and strengthening ties with neighboring countries such as Jordan and the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, and moving forward with electrical grid interconnection projects. Both Iraq and the United States indicated their common intention to address the climate emergency and work together to promote clean energy and combat climate change, including working with the private sector in the United States, through the implementation of projects that promote clean energy development, and improve ways to generate electricity using solar energy. And the development of energy production efficiency, and the treatment of gas associated with oil extraction. Such projects increase the contribution to the implementation of Iraq's obligations towards the Paris Agreement on Climate Change, and this is a positive development that the United States welcomes. The two countries discussed cooperation with US scientific bodies to help Iraq improve the management and protection of its environmental and natural resources, including water resources. The United States also welcomed the progress made in relations between the federal government in Iraq and the Kurdistan Regional Government by reaching an agreement on budget, energy and other strategic issues. The United States reiterated its affirmation of respecting Iraq's sovereignty , territorial integrity, and freedom of expression guaranteed by the Iraqi constitution. The two delegations discussed ways in which the United States can support the Iraqi government in terms of providing protection for peaceful protesters and civil society activists, and achieving legal accountability. Iraq welcomed the United States' support for the parliamentary elections through its funding of the United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq . The two countries jointly extended the maximum period of validity of entry visas for diplomats and government delegations to up to two years, thus reducing administrative postponements in both countries, and this will ensure greater ease of travel and direct communication between the two governments. The United States also renewed its continued determination to support Iraq in finding durable solutions with regard to internally displaced persons, so that these solutions are voluntary, safe and dignified, in addition to providing assistance to groups that have been subjected to genocide by ISIS . The two countries also discussed working on achieving more progress in the areas of judicial cooperation, property restitution and the fight against corruption. With regard to discussions related to security and combating terrorism, the two sides reaffirmed their common desire to continue coordination and bilateral cooperation, and the two countries also affirmed that the presence of US forces in Iraq was based on the Iraqi government's call for the purpose of supporting the Iraqi security forces in their war against ISIS . In light of the development of the capabilities of the Iraqi security forces , the two parties concluded that the role of the US and coalition forces has now shifted to training and advisory missions in a manner that allows for the redeployment of the remainder of the combat forces outside Iraq , provided that the two parties agree on timelines in future technical talks. This shift in the nature of the missions of US and other international forces from combat operations to training, equipping, and support reflects the success of our strategic partnership and ensures support for the ongoing efforts of Iraqi forces to ensure that ISIS does not threaten Iraq's stability again. The Iraqi government renewed its commitment to protect the personnel and convoys of the International Coalition and the diplomatic missions of its state. The two countries stressed that the bases in which the coalition members are present are Iraqi bases and they are present exclusively to support Iraq’s efforts in the war against ISIS . The two countries intend to continue the talks through a joint military committee to ensure that the operations of the international coalition are in line with the needs of the Iraqi security forces, including the Peshmerga forces. As for higher education and scientific and cultural cooperation, the two governments discussed the United States' support for the efforts made by Iraq to promote higher education in cooperation with American universities through the Fulbright Program, the Higher Education Partnership Initiative of the US Embassy, and the expanded US support for the initiative. Universities in liberated areas (Liberated Universities Initiative). The two countries also intend to identify additional ways to support Iraq's plans to reform higher education and strengthen university partnerships between Iraq and the United States. The two delegations reviewed the progress made in their joint efforts to preserve the rich cultural heritage of Iraq and the religious diversity, and affirmed their intention to cooperate to return the Iraqi cultural properties that were illegally introduced into the United States, to their rightful place in Iraq . An example of this is the Iraqi government's restoration, last August, of an archive of the outlawed Baath Party that was temporarily preserved in the Hoover Institute. The US State Department provided assistance in facilitating the procedures for transferring this archive, as the US Department of Defense transferred 6.5 million documents to Baghdad. The two countries condemned the criminal acts of the outlawed Baath Party against the Iraqi people. The two countries discussed progress made with regard to a US grant to the Smithsonian Institute for the continuation and expansion of the Nimrud Rescue Project, in support of Iraq’s goals of preserving cultural heritage. The two delegations discussed the use of virtual exhibitions to spread the cultural and historical achievements of the Iraqi people around the world. In conclusion, the two countries reaffirmed the importance of the strategic relationship between them and their determination to continue taking appropriate steps to enhance it in the interest of both countries and achieve security, stability and prosperity in the region. The United States also welcomed the opportunity to reconfirm and strengthen its partnership with Iraq . The two governments are looking forward to further discussions on the aforementioned issues at the meeting of the High Coordination Committee for the Strategic Dialogue to be held at a later date.
  16. Kazemi, if he could, which he cannot, would be dropping zeroes from the IQD. 1.45 in IQD, not USD, and would come out at $.69 in US dollars, and that's not better.
  17. I believe it was the US government April 2011 SIGIR submitted to Congress that stated the IQD revalue rate would be approximately $1.17 (could have been $1.19).
  18. If it were 88 cents nobody would be here to answer your question. They would be at a bank, a bar, or an airport. Me, I'd be shopping.
  19. Karsten, I guess my sense of humor is a bit odd. I really wasn't criticizing your spelling and grammar. That was tongue in cheek. I was chiding you because of your criticism of the "Left." If you are only looking for dinar info, leave out the politics.
  20. Kazemi's actions are opening up the export industry in Iraq and exactly what you need for full membership in the WTO, which Iraq stated they would be moving to at the beginning of 2022. A country's requirement for full membership is using only one currency.
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