The Watcher

If the "facts" of the matter amounts to a hill of beans, the Iraqi dinar will revalue. It is simple logic. However, we all know the Iraqis don't necessarily deal with logic and they keep time with a sun dial. I have a few million dinar that I have had since 2005. It is not likely a lop will occur in my opinion. Iraqi is too rich now and too rich in the future to have a worthless country. Kuwait is a prime example of what can happen. The Iraqi dinar has been held down for obvious reasons, mainly to keep it out of the hands of terrorists. If they are ever to enter the world stage they must have a tradable currency. It may not be worth much, but it must be tradable. At least we will have that much.

Arlington National Cemetary is hallowed ground. Heroes lie there. Arlington should be visited by all Americans. While there, one should be reverent, quiet, thankful, and proud that so many gave all they had for the greatest country in the history of mankind. It is a special place. If you go there and don't leave with a lump in your throat, check your heartbeat, it may have stopped.

Nobody knows. Reasonable thinking: 1) This is Iraq, reasonable thinking goes out of the window. 2) Iraq has more natural resources than almost any ME country. 3) The only way to exploit those natural resources is outside investment. 4) Outside investment comes only when investors can make a profit and get paid in real money. 5) Iraq has been paying bills with dollars. 6) If Iraq does RV ( and I now think that is a BIG IF) they cannot do it for less than a 1:1 to the dollar because anything lower will cause rampant speculation on the dinar and massive inflation will occur. 7) States( US, UK, etc) that hold very large amounts of dinar will control their "cash in" rate to allow Iraq to absorb the shock. 8) Individual investorslike you and me are not even a pimple on the butt of the Iraqi dinar. 9) Entrance into the WTO requires a tradable currency? No real confirmation here one way or the other, only rumor. China belongs and their currency is not traded on the world market. Who knows. 10) Reasonable thinking (pardon) would allow that Iraq will step up and do something for the populace as far as buying power. This alone will fuel the middle class and put businesses on a solid footing. On the down side, Iraqi people have been eating for a long time, even with their worthless currency. If the politicians do not do this quickly, they will suffer the consequences. On a side note, I was on the Adam chat last night for about 15 minutes. I know Adam does not speculate or pump, but I learned nothing new from him. I read the treasury news yesterday about the dinar and the "restrictions" on trading it. Adam basically repeated this information and that was it. He does not mention his "contact" in the CBI anymore. So Adam knows no more than you or me at this point. Not being a tax attorney, I think any tax implications or restrictions that singles out a particular segment of investor is unconstitutional. However, our "representatives" generally ignore the constitution so that argument goes out the window also. We are likely in a very long tunnel. I don't think the light we see is a train, but we are a long way from catching that baby. I hope I am wrong, I could use the money.

Is Shabibi a real person? What is the real reason Maliki has withheld the 3 ministers? He must be trying to save his sorry behind by packing the court. Of course the PM has a right to select his supporters. In this case however it is more important than that. They could help save his hide.

18 The question here is who benefits the most for the rv not going through. The IQD has not appreciated in value in over 18 months. Somebody has got to be making a lot of money somewhere. The only thing that I can figure is the delay allows the Iraqi politicians more time to ship out tons of IQD to Switzerland.

I don't think we will ever be completely out of Iraq. With the demise of Egypt, Iraq is likely to become our best ally in that part of the world. I think we stay, but be as invisible as we can be. Al Asad is a very large air base approx 250 kilometers west of Baghdad. The runway is 3+ miles long. It is very isolated, not located near any large town. We could have a relatively large force there as a contingency and be incognito.

China is a communist country. Iraq is a democracy, albeit a shaky one. Big difference in potential.

I doubt Shabibi anticipated the political stalemate to go this long. Iraqis have clearly demonstrated that time lines and drop dead dates are just marks on the calendar. Look for the ISX date to be pushed back. After 7 months of arguing it is not likely this will be settled in less than 5 days.

I am beginning to think the hope of an RV for this year is coming to a close. No one in Iraq has the courage to take Maliki out and the only way he is leaving is by force. He is the government by default, albeit unrecognized. So we will be better served IMO to let this go for a while. I just don't see it happening unless by coup, which is a remote possibility.

In a nutshell. All politicians are self-serving. I guess they will continue to talk until one party or the other dies of old age.

Deadlines mean nothing to Iraqis and Arabs in general. I think we may have rid the Iraqis of a dictator only to be replaced by another dictator. I am beginning to think the status quo is perfectly ok. They hate each other more than they hate us infidels. The differences between the Shiites and Sunnis is similar to the differences between the Methodists and the Baptists. Same God, same Christian principals, just a slight difference in how you conduct the worship service. I think Shiites don't like the way Sunnis hold their hands during prayer, or vice versa, as well as other small things. They kill each other over the differences and have for hundreds of years.

My bank has said nothing about limits. I was told the cost to me would be whatever it cost them. So I hope when they (we actually) take it to an international bank for exchange there will be some "professional courtesy".

Totally agree. What I have not been able to find out is how the poor vendor will recoup the price of the bread YESTERDAY. Lets say he paid 20k for the bread on Thursday and then has to sell the bread for 1dinar on Friday. Just can't get my head around that one yet.

There is no incentive for the politicians to form a government. They are living in comfort and making money. This "negotiating" could go on for years. IF the rv occurs in my lifetime I will take the money and run as far away from Iraq as possible. How could a business ever involve Itself with these morons. This behavior is a clear demonstration why the modern world has passed them by. They will never get off the camels and step into the 21st century.

One man cannot destroy a country? Perhaps not, but Hitler mesmerized the German people with his smooth talk and in effect did destroy Gemany with the help of an apathic populace. Reagan had to tackle 13% inflation and 21% interest rates. He did it by putting money into the pockets of people. By the way, Reagan had to deal with Tip O'Neal and a Democrat Congress but he got it done. Reagan also had to contend with an agressive Soviet Union. Reagan spent them into dust, and therefore set millions free. I will take Reagan any day of the week compared to the community organizer. By the way, by the time Bill Clinton got into office the economy was white hot, thanks to Reagan and Bush 41. Clinton got the credit for a balanced budget. He owes that to a Republican congress, who controls the purse strings. An analogy, Eisenhower lead the troops in WWII, but the grunt on the ground did the heavy lifting.