Debate: Lop vs No Lop, Sonny1 and jmw

[Adam Montana]

Debate Topic: Lop / No Lop.

Each Debater (sonny1 and jmw) have sent the other Debater a set of questions to choose from.

The Round Starter will choose which question to answer (from the list of questions provided by the opponent)

The Debaters will alternate starting Rounds.

There will be TWO rounds.

Round 1

jmw will start, posting his first chosen question in this format:

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Question, in Quotes like this.

Response to the question below.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Sonny will respond.

jmw will have one follow up response (rebuttal) to Sonny1's post.

Then Sonny1 will choose a question, posting in the same format:

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Question, in Quotes like this.

Response to the question below.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

jmw will respond.

Sonny1 will have one response (rebuttal) to jmw's post.

/ THAT ENDS ROUND ONE.

Round 2

Sonny1 starts

Following the final round, each Debater may make ONE closing statement.

The rules are as follows:

• Following this format, there should be 6 posts per round, total of 12 posts.
• Since the Debaters already have the questions, we will shoot for 5 minutes between posts. This should help keep the debate to a reasonable time period!
• 2 closing statements, for a total of 14 posts in this debate.
• 10 minutes allowed for closing statements.
• Debaters are not allowed to insult the other member.
• Use links where possible, logic where applicable.
• Members can comment on the debate in the following thread: (Thread to be announced at the start of the Debate)
• LET'S GET READY TO RUMBLLLLLLLLLLLEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!!

[sonny1]

i like this format, see ya at 6 pm CDT.

[sonny1]

i am ready, just waiting for jmw

[jmw]

First off…Thank you Adam for allowing all sides to be considered…I have a lot of respect for that…

I said early on that I thought this should be more inclusive of other members….There are some very smart ones here and I didn’t want this to be about me and Sonny but about the facts and what could be supported…so I need to thank some of the members that helped me with this…Drox, jg167, Hopefultxn, Dalite (happy B-Day!), Legolas.

Now that I got that out of the way…sonny you ready?

[sonny1]

jmw, whenever your ready pick-answer a question.......lets do this

[jmw]

iraq has no private sector' date=' jobs are scarce, and the people are broke and have a 3rd grade education level, would you agree that rv'ing to even .10 would give iraq the purchasing the power needed to excel in building the private sector, therefore creating jobs, release them from poverty and be able to up their schooling level to overcome literacy? what in your mind would iraq need to do to revalue to at least .10. you hold dinar and frequent the dinar sites, so part of you would have to believe this will happen.....right?[/size']

You are right that it would be good for them to have more purchasing power and better education…Unfortunately you just described about 100 different countries…but having a screwed up county with high unemployment, with little or no education does not give them the ability to increase the value of their currency overnight by 100000%. If that is all it took don’t you think others would be doing it?

They have to have a stable and improving economy a manageable money supply in order to improve their purchasing power….Just like every other country in the world…why does Iraq get a special pass when it comes to basic economic principles?

Here is a list to compare Iraq to us and neighboring countries based on M1 as a % of GDP.

USA 13.01%

Kuwait 13.19%

Saudi Arabia 26.83%

Iran 4.35%

Iraq 45132%

http://www.indexmund...?v=65&c=ku&l=en

(This is a great link where you can look at lots of different metrics of all countries)

You would have a better argument that Saudi should revalue their currency. If Iraq wants to “claim” its currency is worth $.10 to $1 it won’t matter unless other countries agree with its value. And, with a M1 as a % of GDP of 45000% no other country would recognize that value.

What do they need to do?…for one redenominate…it would reduce their money supply to 51 billion if they removed there zeros…then the chart would then look like this.

USA 13.01%

Kuwait 13.19%

Saudi Arabia 26.83%

Iran 4.35%

Iraq 45.13%

As you can see the M1 as a % of GDP is now down to 45%....which is much more in line…..now as they continue to increase oil production and GDP there currency can continue to increase in value giving them additional purchasing power.

If you look at where Iraq has come since 2004 in terms of their GDP…they have gone from $40bl to 113bl since 2004.

You can see why their currency has increased over 300% since the early 90’s….it appears that once they got to the current rate they stopped increasing the value and became more aggressive in growing their money supply….

I know you don’t believe the stated numbers for their money supply and that some or most of that could be held at the CBI…here is a link to the CBI site that states all currency held by the CBI is not included in the currency count.

http://www.cbi.iq/do..._sta2009_en.pdf

2.3.14. Issued currency

The liability of the CBI towards banknotes and coins issued as a legal tender in Iraq under the Central Bank of Iraq Law of 2004 is stated at the face value. The issued banknotes and coins that are returned to the CBI are reduced from the issued currency balance. Any un-issued and returned banknotes and coins kept in the CBI vaults are not reflected in the financial statements. The cost of printing the banknotes and melting of coins is recorded in the income statement when incurred.

So unless they are lying by about 58,950,000,000,000 dinar in their financials then they can’t revalue the IQD by 100000%.

For the last part…I do hold dinar and do frequent dinar sites…It has appreciated in value…so I’m around a break even on it…I think it will continue to appreciate and if it can get up to a 50% increase I would call that a good deal. It is a very, very small piece of my investments…plus, I like being a thorn in your side!

BTW…their Literacy has improved to 74%...Saudi Arabia’s is 78% so they have come a long way.

[sonny1]

you ask why iraq is different...answer very simply is that iraq is currently producing over 2 million bpd, which is just as much as kuwait (kuwait's dollar is around $4.00 and iraq is negative 1170)

i will agree that if there numbers that they are trying to sell everyone is correct it would be hard to rv at $1.00, but we dont know for sure what the auctions really are. some say selling-some say buying, shabbs has gotten inflation down to a resonable rate in the last 7 years, so i am sure his plan is to give wealth to the people, and a rd doesnt do that.

[jmw]

you ask why iraq is different...answer very simply is that iraq is currently producing over 2 million bpd, which is just as much as kuwait (kuwait's dollar is around $4.00 and iraq is negative 1170)

i will agree that if there numbers that they are trying to sell everyone is correct it would be hard to rv at $1.00, but we dont know for sure what the auctions really are. some say selling-some say buying, shabbs has gotten inflation down to a resonable rate in the last 7 years, so i am sure his plan is to give wealth to the people, and a rd doesnt do that.

they produce the same oil....but there are many countries that produce more...Saudi produces almost 10 mbpd...why aren't they the same value as Kuwait?...Iraq doesn't get special treatment when it comes to how other countries see the value of the IQD....no one does....and that is what the IMF is trying to do...make sure there is a level playing field.

Just because we want it doesn't mean it can be done...a RD is value neutral...so it doesn't hurt then and could add value over time.

[sonny1]

Would you agree that there is a correlation between a countries money supply and GDP in regards to its exchange value?...And, if you do…then how can you say their currency is worth 100,000% (1000x) higher than it is now when which would put the value if M1 for Iraq many times greater even than the US GDP let alone the US money supply? And if you don’t believe the money supply has anything to do with its value than what does?

answer:

to a certain extent i agree that a country with a highly productive gdp would tend to make a countries exchange rate strong, i guess it would depend on what else the country has going for itself to know for sure that the exchange rate would be high ($1.00 or over).

iraq,s gdp in very low , but like kuwiat, jordan, bahrain, and even saudi arabia, oil is king, none of these other countries has the gdp to warrant the exchange rate it has, even saudi arabia who's dollar is only $.27 to the u.s dollar depends on oil to stabilize there exchange rate.

iraq's currency is worth well over $1.00, if kuwait is only at 1.9-2.3 million barrels per day and there dollar goes from $3.70-4.00 on any given day, and iraq is now pumping 2-2.2 million barrels per day i would say that iraq's dollar is only slightly less in value to kuwait, and i say slightly less because of the population difference (kuwait 3-3.5 million, iraq 30-32 million people).

m1, i agree those numbers are stagering, but you have stated on numberous occasions that iraq is on the hook for 59 trillion dinar if they rv at $1.00, and only 50 billion in there reserves, for one how do we know they have'nt converted that 50 billion into dinar, how do we really know what they have in the reserves, the true fact in the whole m1 debate (i cant blame you for going there) is we dont know for SURE what the numbers really are, i know you have your reports, but no-one but a very few believe those numbers.

[jmw]

Would you agree that there is a correlation between a countries money supply and GDP in regards to its exchange value?...And, if you do…then how can you say their currency is worth 100,000% (1000x) higher than it is now when which would put the value if M1 for Iraq many times greater even than the US GDP let alone the US money supply? And if you don’t believe the money supply has anything to do with its value than what does?

answer:

to a certain extent i agree that a country with a highly productive gdp would tend to make a countries exchange rate strong, i guess it would depend on what else the country has going for itself to know for sure that the exchange rate would be high ($1.00 or over).

iraq,s gdp in very low , but like kuwiat, jordan, bahrain, and even saudi arabia, oil is king, none of these other countries has the gdp to warrant the exchange rate it has, even saudi arabia who's dollar is only $.27 to the u.s dollar depends on oil to stabilize there exchange rate.

iraq's currency is worth well over $1.00, if kuwait is only at 1.9-2.3 million barrels per day and there dollar goes from $3.70-4.00 on any given day, and iraq is now pumping 2-2.2 million barrels per day i would say that iraq's dollar is only slightly less in value to kuwait, and i say slightly less because of the population difference (kuwait 3-3.5 million, iraq 30-32 million people).

m1, i agree those numbers are stagering, but you have stated on numberous occasions that iraq is on the hook for 59 trillion dinar if they rv at $1.00, and only 50 billion in there reserves, for one how do we know they have'nt converted that 50 billion into dinar, how do we really know what they have in the reserves, the true fact in the whole m1 debate (i cant blame you for going there) is we dont know for SURE what the numbers really are, i know you have your reports, but no-one but a very few believe those numbers.

First their oil doesn't matter until they can get it out of the ground...I'll more into this in a bit...do you realize that all of the currency in the world in US dollars is equal to $60 trillion...If Iraq revalued to 1 to 1...their currency would be worth more that all of the currency in the WORLD...yes...they would be worth more than all of the currencies in the world combined.

http://dollardaze.org/blog/

Your other point is that we should believe owners of dinar sites that advertise for dinar dealers instead of the financial statements that have been audited by Ernst and Young?...really?

[sonny1]

First their oil doesn't matter until they can get it out of the ground...I'll more into this in a bit...do you realize that all of the currency in the world in US dollars is equal to $60 trillion...If Iraq revalued to 1 to 1...their currency would be worth more that all of the currency in the WORLD...yes...they would be worth more than all of the currencies in the world combined.

http://dollardaze.org/blog/

Your other point is that we should believe owners of dinar sites that advertise for dinar dealers instead of the financial statements that have been audited by Ernst and Young?...really?

yes, we should believe blaino..... j/k

but iraq will be calling that money back into cbi, its not like the money will be floating around, once they rv everyone with dinar will run to there bank and cash in there money, and iraq is now ready for this with the cbi gateway, that was into place about 2 months ago, they are electronicly ready for this. you make it seem like you believe they have only 50 billion in there reserves, you should know better than that, hell they just got back 250 billion from there dfi.

[jmw]

Anyone who looks at the financial data spreadsheets from CBI would realize that the Liquid Assets (Foreign & Domestic) back the value of their M1 money supply considering the current exchange rate. Therefore, for every 1170 IQD, a $1 or liquid evuilant exists within their possession. By abiding by IMF policies, it appears they are using Article 14. If the CBI were to switch the policies and move from Article 14 to 8, they would have the ability to monetize their non-liquid assets. This would mean, the wealth of the country would be able to back their currency. Some may agree or disagree on the % of liquid assets would be required, but, wouldn't this pose a significant jump in value where a R/V could be sustained and a R/D rendered illogical? Reason for asking: If they were to R/D, moving to Article 8 would be senseless.... Unless they GOI only printed money for themselves, as they would be able to since they could support such a high rate using that policy after re-denomination. (Which would sort of defeat the purpose)

I’m pretty sure this is a question that Darin submitted for you to use….and since it sounds good I would like to address it….for the most part it seems to be written to confuse…I’ll explain. It is correct that the CBI financials show that the liquid assets appear to be backed at 100% at the current exchange…but that is about it…

Part I

You ask about their ability to monetize their non-liquid assets…their non-liquid assets (assets that cannot be easily converted to cash) would be their oil…No country monetizes their oil…it is simply too volatile…oil has recently moved from $140 US per barrel to under $40 in less than one year.

http://www.nyse.tv/c...ice-history.htm

Oil only has a role when they take it out of the ground and sell it on the open market…They need the revenue it creates to run their county…the following is from

http://www.fas.org/s...ast/RL34064.pdf

Iraq: Oil and Gas Legislation, Revenue Sharing, and U.S. Policy

“At present, crude oil is the source of over 90% of Iraq’s domestic energy consumption and oil exports generate over 90% of Iraq’s government revenue. “

It has a very detailed description of the oil in Iraq, the Hydrocarbon Law and revenue sharing and is a great read for anyone interested it Iraq’s oil.

Their oil can’t back their currency but it is import as it does improve their GDP…which in time will improve the value of their currency…provided they maintain their M1 & M2 levels, (Money supply). No country uses oil futures to back their currency…they can’t because they have no idea what it will be worth until they can sell it…ie..Convert it to a liquid asset which then can be added to reserves or used to grow their economy…if it could be done there would be a much more stable country than Iraq doing it.

In addition...central banks do not have reserve requirements for their currency...fractional reserve banking applies to commercial banks only...which is currently 15% for member banks of the CBI

www.cbi.iq

Part II

You say that moving from Article XIV to Article VIII gives them the ability to do this…

Here is a link to IMF Article VIII….

http://www.imf.org/e.../ft/aa/aa08.htm

Here are the headlines of the areas that are covered in Article VIII

Article VIII - General Obligations of Members

Section 1. Introduction

Section 2. Avoidance of restrictions on current payments

Section 3. Avoidance of discriminatory currency practices

Section 4. Convertibility of foreign-held balances

Section 5. Furnishing of information

Section 6. Consultation between members regarding existing international agreements

Section 7. Obligation to collaborate regarding policies on reserve assets

Nowhere does it say anything about liquid or non-liquid assets…or being able to monetize them….Interesting though is Section 4. Convertibility of foreign-held balances…It requires members to “buy balances of its currency held by another member if the latter, in requesting the purchase, represents:

"The buying member shall have the option to pay either in special drawing rights, subject to Article XIX, Section 4, or in the currency of the member making the request.”

So if the US does hold dinar they would be required buy it back immediately…and with only $50 billion in reserves they don’t have the reserves to buy it back for much more than its current market value.

So to answer your question….No…moving from Article XIV to Article VIII does not allow them to monetize their liquid assets. And, they can’t use their non-liquid assets (oil) to back their currency….but the question LOOKS really cool!

[sonny1]

darin, thanks for the question, i am going to let him get his point across on this one, i dont feel numbers play as big of a part as some, i feel he has good and valid points, and i am going to move on to another question...

At last count there were over 10 recent articles that have come out and clearly stated that they are going to redenominate and used Turkey as an example….These are articles written for Iraqi’s to educate them on what the process is going to be…If you disagree with them being about a redenomination then what are they referring to?

answer:

i would even argue that there has been more like 40-50 lop articles in the last month, but they have never been action article. this article however

http://dinarvets.com...small-currency/

this article states" small currency acceptable to the Iraqi market, if the value is planning to make the dinar value against the dollar and this is through the printed coins to strengthen Iraqi currency"

for debate purposes i am sure you weren't very happy to see they are ready to release the coins into circ. you as well as well everyone knows they can,t have the worthless 25 or 100 dinar coins at 1170. oh ya i am sure you liked the part about bringing the value to the u.s dollar. see all your articles are saleh going charlie browns teacher on us (wha wha wha) this guy is shabbs henchman, he has never stated one thing that has come true not once. when i said action article in my first line statement what i meant is the iraqi's are telling the locals that they are ready to start cashing them in for the new valued coins. now thats an action article........not smoke and mirrors from saleh.

" we have set aside a day of the week lnstkobl of small currency banks damaged noudaha modern categories without any cost, noting that the Central Bank stands ready to provide the banks with any amount of small coins"

"

this paraphrase speaks for itself. no comment needed.

and for turkey, it is a fact atleast according to the iraqi f-m that turkey's dollar devalued after there rd, abd turkey was a total mess, dont you find it hard to believe that iraq would even possibly put themselves in this spot?

http://dinarvets.com...__fromsearch__1

[jmw]

darin, thanks for the question, i am going to let him get his point across on this one, i dont feel numbers play as big of a part as some, i feel he has good and valid points, and i am going to move on to another question...

The point is that the numbers DO matter...there is just no way around that....if people choose not to believe them, that is their choice...But if numbers don't matter...why has no country ever revalued to even a 50% increase without a renomination?...they haven't because they can't...it has to move gradually or their will be chaos.

[sonny1]

The point is that the numbers DO matter...there is just no way around that....if people choose not to believe them, that is their choice...But if numbers don't matter...why has no country ever revalued to even a 50% increase without a renomination?...they haven't because they can't...it has to move gradually or their will be chaos.

is that your response, by the way no country in the history of the world had as much oil as iraq and is pumping 2mbpd and had a negative 1170 as there exchange, see your numbers are great, but this is a situation that has never been.

[jmw]

darin, thanks for the question, i am going to let him get his point across on this one, i dont feel numbers play as big of a part as some, i feel he has good and valid points, and i am going to move on to another question...

At last count there were over 10 recent articles that have come out and clearly stated that they are going to redenominate and used Turkey as an example….These are articles written for Iraqi’s to educate them on what the process is going to be…If you disagree with them being about a redenomination then what are they referring to?

answer:

i would even argue that there has been more like 40-50 lop articles in the last month, but they have never been action article. this article however

http://dinarvets.com...small-currency/

this article states" small currency acceptable to the Iraqi market, if the value is planning to make the dinar value against the dollar and this is through the printed coins to strengthen Iraqi currency"

for debate purposes i am sure you weren't very happy to see they are ready to release the coins into circ. you as well as well everyone knows they can,t have the worthless 25 or 100 dinar coins at 1170. oh ya i am sure you liked the part about bringing the value to the u.s dollar. see all your articles are saleh going charlie browns teacher on us (wha wha wha) this guy is shabbs henchman, he has never stated one thing that has come true not once. when i said action article in my first line statement what i meant is the iraqi's are telling the locals that they are ready to start cashing them in for the new valued coins. now thats an action article........not smoke and mirrors from saleh.

" we have set aside a day of the week lnstkobl of small currency banks damaged noudaha modern categories without any cost, noting that the Central Bank stands ready to provide the banks with any amount of small coins"

"

this paraphrase speaks for itself. no comment needed.

and for turkey, it is a fact atleast according to the iraqi f-m that turkey's dollar devalued after there rd, abd turkey was a total mess, dont you find it hard to believe that iraq would even possibly put themselves in this spot?

http://dinarvets.com...__fromsearch__1

sorry...we got out of order some how...actually the coins don't matter...they are part of the renomination...it's only dinar sites that make people think the small denoms are for the rv...I'm sure you saw the article today that specifically stated...they will use both currencies old and new...they could pay with 1000 dinar or 1 dinar...therefore if they can pay with 1 dinar...they are going to need coins...I would post the link...but it was posted about 50 times already on the site.

Not sure where you get Turkey screwed up...here is a link that speaks of Turkeys success

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1347407

But you and others would rather say they use Turkey as an example of what not to do...the articles clearly state they are going to DO WHAT TURKEY did...there really isn't any way around that...there have been lots of renomination's...some good some not so good...but they are fairly common...raising the value of currency 100000% not so much.

[sonny1]

sorry...we got out of order some how...actually the coins don't matter...they are part of the renomination...it's only dinar sites that make people think the small denoms are for the rv...I'm sure you saw the article today that specifically stated...they will use both currencies old and new...they could pay with 1000 dinar or 1 dinar...therefore if they can pay with 1 dinar...they are going to need coins...I would post the link...but it was posted about 50 times already on the site.

Not sure where you get Turkey screwed up...here is a link that speaks of Turkeys success

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1347407

But you and others would rather say they use Turkey as an example of what not to do...the articles clearly state they are going to DO WHAT TURKEY did...there really isn't any way around that...there have been lots of renomination's...some good some not so good...but they are fairly common...raising the value of currency 100000% not so much.

the coins dont matter, i hope they have a good semi driver on speed dial so when they go to the supermarket he can come and hump all those coins to get milk and bread at 1170

[jmw]

Closing

So far your argument for a revalue is that they sit on a bunch of oil and we can’t trust the numbers that are on the CBI financials.

Really nothing else but your opinion….which isn’t based on economic theory or history…more of just a pipe dream…

Doesn’t’ matter if they 250 bn in DFI Funds….I’m not sure they can use those as foreign currency reserves…are you?

But even if they could they still would not have enough to cover even a small RV based on how much money is out there….

The coins won’t be used until the redenomination and at that time they will be worth more…remember the article that says they can use 1000 dinar or 1 dinar?...that is what they will use the coins for

I do not know if Iraq will redenominate or not….And I am not saying they are going to…however, they keep saying they are going to…Wow…did you see the article that came out today?...and if they do, it will be very similar to every other country that has done it and hopefully as successful as Turkey has been with theirs…which is why they keep using Turkey as an example.

A redenomination is not the boogie man…it is value neutral for Iraq…meaning it won’t hurt them…but It does put them in a position to improve much quicker…here is how:

Currently:

60 trillion dinar in M2 - then for every 6 billion USD added to foreign reserves that only allows $0.0001 increase per dinar.

After redenomination:

60 billion dinar in M2 - increase of every $6 billion would reflect a possibly increase in currency value up to $0.10 per dinar.

The problem is none of us will get rich if they redenominate…sorry but it isn’t going to happen…but it doesn’t mean it is a complete loss and it can continue to increase…how much? Who knows…it’s up over 300% already.

IMO, a redenomination is the best way for us to gain additional value…historically the largest increases in a currencies value has come during a redenomination.

The dinar is currently pegged to the US dollar to maintain that they have to purchase all IQD that is offered at that exchange value. If they do a straight RV they don’t have enough reserves to cover much at all and therefore can’t do it.

If they really thought it was worth more than it is…why not just let it go on a float to determine its value?....based on their current GDP and Money supply…it would not increase in value.

Dinar sellers have done a very good job at confusing and playing off of peoples dream to be wealthy…but as you see from recent events that may be coming around to bite them.

I hope this has help in some way….if anyone needs additional proof or clarity on anything I have posted let me know…

My wife says I need a new hobbie….so for those who are tired of my negativity I’ll do you a favor and spend a lot more time away from this site…thanks again for those who helped….Thanks again Adam..and thanks Sonny.

[sonny1]

closing

first i just wanted to thank everyone for coming on and watching, i would also like to major props to jmw, he is a very intelligent guy who always has links to provide for what he thinks is right. i have major respect for jmw, and want to thank him for being here

now, this situation iraq is in has never been, jmw keeps saying that 50 countries rd'd there currency and none of them went into a 50% rv or higher...this may be true, but when in the history of the world has any country had the third most oil, the 2nd most natural gas and had a currency that was negative......answer is never.......jmw and the rest of his crew seem to think that iraq has been sitting around for the last 7 years and do not have a plan in place with all the dinar holding countries, well i am here to say that i believe differently. why oh why would all of these countries china and u.s included just waive iraqs debt in the middle of the worst economic time in decades.....probably because they are holding dinar, and iraq didnt want to pay them twice (debt plus rv) so iraq obviously took the rv payoff instead of paying them twice.

how i see this going down is like this. iraq will rv between .30-1.00, we will cash in our dinar, iraq will again rv probably to $2.00 then iraq will double the value of dinar we turned back to them, giving them trillions in profit....simple if you think about it.

once these coins hit the streets its over

here is a little piece by a guy i have alot of respect for, he has made millions in the market, read his opinion, and check his background

http://www.wealthdaily.com/articles/the-revaluation-of-the-iraqi-dinar/3145

thanks everyone.....

[Adam Montana]

Thank you both for your efforts and contributions here! I will close this thread, all comments can be placed here: http://dinarvets.com/forums/index.php?/topic/77729-official-discussion-on-the-debate/