Is This Real??

[Muhammad]

I still dont see a strong possibility of a lop at this time. If the RV doesnt happen soon, the changing political and economic climates may bring about circumstances in which a lop is possible.

Yes! If Iraq is facing hyperinflation all of a sudden, it might have to be lopped. Otherwise it is a state thievery and exploitation of everyone concerned as well.

[Muhammad]

I still dont see a strong possibility of a lop at this time. If the RV doesnt happen soon, the changing political and economic climates may bring about circumstances in which a lop is possible.

Yes! If Iraq is facing hyperinflation all of a sudden, it might have to be lopped. Otherwise it is a state thievery and exploitation of everyone concerned as well.

[The Watcher]

You present a very good case. If this is true then Iraq culd never RV. They have to have a large money supply because the dinar is worth $.0009. If an Rv occurs, and at some point it must, wouldn't it be easier for the Iraqi government to take immediate action to control the supply of the dinar? They keep selling it and putting more out there, so this is a Catch-22 for them and us. We are in a money trap with no way out. So, RV and stop printing money or start burning a lot of it.

[ArtistsandWriters]

You present a very good case. If this is true then Iraq culd never RV. They have to have a large money supply because the dinar is worth $.0009. If an Rv occurs, and at some point it must, wouldn't it be easier for the Iraqi government to take immediate action to control the supply of the dinar? They keep selling it and putting more out there, so this is a Catch-22 for them and us. We are in a money trap with no way out. So, RV and stop printing money or start burning a lot of it.

The Watcher:

You've precisely hit on it.

Notwithstanding that "others" out there will make the final determination, both the Finance Ministry and the CBI will have to fit into place—and as I have shared more times than I care to recall or admit—must, and of necessity, engage in open-market operations to artificially dry up the money supply, increase the lending discount rates to the 16 member banks, and then institute perhaps the most radical leverage tool of all: increasing the liquidity reserve ratios of each and every branch to 25% or greater. These would be physical notes in the respective vaults that could not touched, comprising a total percentage of actual funds at any time on deposit in those branches. This absolute percentage would remain the same, but the actual amounts would have to be adjusted weekly, relative to those deposits.

When you have too many notes chasing too few assets, and no more notes that are actually being printed, you have not stagflation, but, rather, true stagnation.

Someone has to make move in this direction—and pronto.

[Kent]

Does it have to be a 3 zero lop, or can it be 1 or 2 zero lop?

No, I like a 2 zero lop. It gives more room for growth. And I also agree with Artists&Writers (I think) that the IMF would have to either sanction any decision or pull chapter VII for them to do it themselves... but I have no idea who would actually make an announcement.

[smithgroup]

My understanding is that a LOP would occur after, or simultaneously with, a RV ... in other words ... it is the RV that creates the need for a LOP and the two (RV and LOP) combined is what will determine the exchange rate of the dinar.

The reason Iraq currently has a 25,000 dinar bill is because the currency is worth so very little today. What good would a 10 or 25 dinar bill be today ... at the current value? It would be like the U.S. issuing a new coin that was a quarter of a penny. Who would use it?

BUT, if the dinar RVs at $3.00, how many of the common people of Iraq could afford the currency ... unless there was a LOP and new currency printed?

If the dinar RVs and there is not a LOP, then the country would have a bunch of currency that would be worth so much that no one could use it. Can you imagine (in the U.S.) trying to buy a can of soda at the corner 7-11 store with a $30,000 bill? What if a can of soda was $1.00 and the smallest bill the U.S. had was a $10,000 bill. It would be impossible for businesses to function.

Therefore, my understanding is that a LOP becomes necessary after a RV because the countries currency becomes worth so MUCH that it becomes impossible to use and therefore the country needs to do a LOP and print NEW currency in much smaller, more usable bills.

Does this make sense?

I don't think a LOP by it self would erode the value of your investment. I think it would be handled like a reverse stock split.

Just my opinion.

Cheers.

[Kent]

The Watcher:

You've precisely hit on it.

Notwithstanding that "others" out there will make the final determination, both the Finance Ministry and the CBI will have to fit into place—and as I have shared more times than I care to recall or admit—must, and of necessity, engage in open-market operations to artificially dry up the money supply, increase the lending discount rates to the 16 member banks, and then institute perhaps the most radical leverage tool of all: increasing the liquidity reserve ratios of each and every branch to 25% or greater. These would be physical notes in the respective vaults that could not touched, comprising a total percentage of actual funds at any time on deposit in those branches. This absolute percentage would remain the same, but the actual amounts would have to be adjusted weekly, relative to those deposits.

When you have too many notes chasing too few assets, and no more notes that are actually being printed, you have not stagflation, but, rather, true stagnation.

Someone has to make move in this direction—and pronto.

A&W, But wouldn't an RV drastically increase the money supply and isn't that inflationary?

Muhammad and SOS, I hate being the "frog", but respectfully, I think you are seriously misunderstanding the purpose and effect of a lop. Please consider reading the study I posted in an earlier link. It is not a tourniquet to stop the bleeding because it has no effect on inflation whatsoever. It is not a theft. It is a value neutral exchange. Please consider looking at Hypothesis 2 in that report. It exactly describes the situation in Iraq. It is a method of removing cumbersome currency without changing value. It is not a confiscitory policy and it does not discredit the country.

[Kent]

My understanding is that a LOP would occur after, or simultaneously with, a RV ... in other words ... it is the RV that creates the need for a LOP and the two (RV and LOP) combined is what will determine the exchange rate of the dinar.

The reason Iraq currently has a 25,000 dinar bill is because the currency is worth so very little today. What good would a 10 or 25 dinar bill be today ... at the current value? It would be like the U.S. issuing a new coin that was a quarter of a penny. Who would use it?

BUT, if the dinar RVs at $3.00, how many of the common people of Iraq could afford the currency ... unless there was a LOP and new currency printed?

If the dinar RVs and there is not a LOP, then the country would have a bunch of currency that would be worth so much that no one could use it. Can you imagine (in the U.S.) trying to buy a can of soda at the corner 7-11 store with a $30,000 bill? What if a can of soda was $1.00 and the smallest bill the U.S. had was a $10,000 bill. It would be impossible for businesses to function.

Therefore, my understanding is that a LOP becomes necessary after a RV because the countries currency becomes worth so MUCH that it becomes impossible to use and therefore the country needs to do a LOP and print NEW currency in much smaller, more usable bills.

Does this make sense?

I don't think a LOP by it self would erode the value of your investment. I think it would be handled like a reverse stock split.

Just my opinion.

Cheers.

Smithgroup, No... and yes.

No, a lop would not really occur after an RV, but a currency recall probably would. If they did an RV they would also do a currency exchange to recall the really big (10k and 25k) notes and retire them. It is generally thought a bad idea to have really huge bill denominations floating around (eg, lay 3 bills on the table to buy a house). It creates too much of a fraud risk.

Yes, a reverse stock split is an exact comparison. It works exactly the same way... no change in value.

[tzsbwn]

You guys are nuts if it lops at all it will be because the want the large denoms out of circulation and there will be ample time to exchange them before it happens. so quit worrying so much about it.

[ArtistsandWriters]

A&W, But wouldn't an RV drastically increase the money supply and isn't that inflationary?

Kent:

Ostensibly, the Iraqi government would have to, first, recall all those notes higher than IQD500.00. These high notes would be redeemed for lower-denomination notes already in existence. This would constitute a cursory "open-market operation" on the part of the Finance Ministry.

The next step would be to actually dry up some of the outstanding money supply with the three monetary tools mentioned in my post above as a "good faith" exercise to the IMF. Then the RV could be effectual without necessarily being inflationary.

[Kent]

Kent:

Ostensibly, the Iraqi government would have to, first, recall all those notes higher than IQD500.00. These high notes would be redeemed for lower-denomination notes already in existence. This would constitute a cursory "open-market operation" on the part of the Finance Ministry.

The next step would be to actually dry up some of the outstanding money supply with the three monetary tools mentioned in my post above as a "good faith" exercise to the IMF. Then the RV could be effectual without necessarily being inflationary.

I have no problem with methods, just with the amount. How could they possibly dry up enough currency to keep a substantial RV from being inflationary? Even if they dried up half the currency and improved the turn of currency in the market with the additonal liquidity that would result from those methods, what kind of RV would be plausable for an economy of $95Billion?

Perhaps another question would be beneficial. Let's take another tack here. With your currency investing background you probably have the answer. Can anyone site some examples where an RV was implemented? Has it ever occurred with a value multiple of 1,000 - 3,000? That would offer some big hope and I have never heard anyone mention anything but Kuwait (which seems to have been more of a floating market increase than a declared RV?)

[Kent]

Oops, have to correct an earlier post. It certainly can be confiscatory (like North Korea and several other authoritarian governments), but that is not the type I was referring to.

This is a clip from that university study:

"Mas

[rt59]

Iraq needs to have a realistic monetary system that corresponds to the value of their economy. Pick a number for their economic value..let's say $300 billion (really high number from todays Iraq), but could be real in a few years. Given that number, establishing currency value to match that number would mean the IQD would RV at about .07 from its current .000867 rate (assumimg money supply of about 43 Tr IQD). At the current value of

.00867 and 43 Tr IQD money supply, the number comes to about $3.7 billion. Bottom line, they have to adjust somehow thru an RV or a lop and RV. If they just do the RV, then they are stuck with a whole bunch of really high denomination bills and that is ok, but then they need to remove them and issue lower denoms for real exchange transactions. To me, it seems to make more sense to lop/RV and remove them from circulation (keeping in mind how much they need to have in real value after it is done. I am still excited about the investment and I believe that something has to happen soon..to much of a disconnect in where they are headed economically and what the money is valued at today. I still say that I remember something from a post or in chat about them printing new lower denom currency recently. Any one remember that? I think my calculations are correct. Check me, please. This isn't about being a sour puss ..just trying to make sense out of the data we have. RV..lop/RV accomplishes the same thing or RV and pull the big notes out of circulation by putting a time limit on cashing them in. All accomplishes the same thing IMO.

[ArtistsandWriters]

I have no problem with methods, just with the amount. How could they possibly dry up enough currency to keep a substantial RV from being inflationary? Even if they dried up half the currency and improved the turn of currency in the market with the additonal liquidity that would result from those methods, what kind of RV would be plausable for an economy of $95Billion?

Perhaps another question would be beneficial. Let's take another tack here. With your currency investing background you probably have the answer. Can anyone site some examples where an RV was implemented? Has it ever occurred with a value multiple of 1,000 - 3,000? That would offer some big hope and I have never heard anyone mention anything but Kuwait (which seems to have been more of a floating market increase than a declared RV?)

Kent:

This is going to be more than a little problematic for the Iraqis, not only because of the sheer volume of dinars in circulation, but also because of who is holding large reserves of them in abeyance

[stephen]

Kent i agree with most of what you said, however if they slowly bring the dinar up over say a 3 to 5 year period and retire the large notes as they come in. This would also give them more time to increase there oil production as the dinar goes up.

[Kent]

The most notable RV in recent history is that of our southern neighbor, Mexico. In 1993, the Nuveo Peso was issued, revaluing from approximately M$1000.00 to the US$1.00 to actual parity. It is now about nine or ten pesos to the greenback. There's your "mulitples".

Yea buddy! That's what I'm talking about! Real money on an RV! How did that affect their economy? They seem pretty stable. Hope, real hope. I'm loving it.

On another note, you obviously have an eloquent use of words... and that name. Are there any books with your name that I should read? Feel free to send a PM if you don't want your real name posted.

[ArtistsandWriters]

Yea buddy! That's what I'm talking about! Real money on an RV! How did that affect their economy? They seem pretty stable. Hope, real hope. I'm loving it.

On another note, you obviously have an eloquent use of words... and that name. Are there any books with your name that I should read? Feel free to send a PM if you don't want your real name posted.

Kent:

First, thanks.

Second, and for some strange reason or other, my PM privileges have been restricted

[sos]

A&W, But wouldn't an RV drastically increase the money supply and isn't that inflationary?

Muhammad and SOS, I hate being the "frog", but respectfully, I think you are seriously misunderstanding the purpose and effect of a lop. Please consider reading the study I posted in an earlier link. It is not a tourniquet to stop the bleeding because it has no effect on inflation whatsoever. It is not a theft. It is a value neutral exchange. Please consider looking at Hypothesis 2 in that report. It exactly describes the situation in Iraq. It is a method of removing cumbersome currency without changing value. It is not a confiscitory policy and it does not discredit the country.

No offence taken. But please do read what I posted before you discredit it. I stated that the currency is simply recalibrated by virtue of removing zeros while maintaining the same value it had prior to LOP. I stated that its purpose was to maintain the relevance of the currency, which is spiraling downward due to runaway inflation. The illustration as a tourniquet was that it was a short-term fix to a currency issue and not a solution, which is all related to hyperinflation. However, the spiraling comes from the fact that inflation causes the devaluing of the currency and the devaluing of the currency feeds the upward trending of inflation. The Lop and its recalibration of the currency serves to alleviate the currency's contribution to the inflation rates (thus slowing the rate)

Take it for what you will but this is not opinion. Economies are not linear.

[sarah77]

I am very interested in the question of a lop thank you for the post. so would it do any good to buy 250- 500 notes would the lop hurt the value of those if it was three zeros ???

[Charles45]

Kent:

This is going to be more than a little problematic for the Iraqis, not only because of the sheer volume of dinars in circulation, but also because of who is holding large reserves of them in abeyance

[Kent]

QUOTE=sos;38762]No offense taken. But please do read what I posted before you discredit it. I stated that the currency is simply recalibrated by virtue of removing zeros while maintaining the same value it had prior to LOP. I stated that its purpose was to maintain the relevance of the currency, which is spiraling downward due to runaway inflation. The illustration as a tourniquet was that it was a short-term fix to a currency issue and not a solution, which is all related to hyperinflation. However, the spiraling comes from the fact that inflation causes the devaluing of the currency and the devaluing of the currency feeds the upward trending of inflation. The Lop and its recalibration of the currency serves to alleviate the currency's contribution to the inflation rates (thus slowing the rate)

Take it for what you will but this is not opinion. Economies are not linear.

I certainly read it, but may have partly mis-read. Sorry and thanks for additional clarification. I still, however don't agree with your last statement "The Lop and its recalibration of the currency serves to alleviate the currency's contribution to the inflation rates". The a clean lop has no real effect on inflation.

Again, part of that quote on the university study:

"Redenomination absent monetary reform will not halt inflation, and redenomination should not change individuals’ behavior. Indeed, taken separately from a broader program of macroeconomic reform and monetary tightening, redenomination seems unlikely to generate winners and losers"

So often people so quickly dismiss a lop with a simple statement that it is only used in the midst of or to deal with hyperinflation and from the study that appears to be incorrect. Likewise, statements about how horrible and damaging it is are often not true. The horrible and damaging part comes with other monetary policy that is sometimes done at the same time as the lop (Muhammad's example of North Korea an excellent example).

[Muhammad]

Well, a great fortune in the hands of a foolish government is a great misfortune whereas a great fortune in the hands of a genius government who has compassion and believes in equality of opportunity for all is a greater fortune. Guess what Iraqi government will be - a fool or a genius? Have oil, so what?

[ArtistsandWriters]

I can appreciate your abilities as a writer,. and I don't mean to be disrespectful in any way,. however, this example of an RV "IS" a LOP!!...The nuevo peso (new peso) was the result of hyperinflation in Mexico. In 1993, Carlos Salinas de Gortari had to strip 3 zeros from the peso. The parity was $1000 = N$1.

They dropped 3 zero's and issued new currency.

Charles45:

You just cited the most important distinction of all.

The Mexican government LOP'ed the three zeros off the peso and then issued the Nuevo Peso concurrent with the older, inflationary "pesos viejos" until the old pesos were eventually taken out of circulation. In other words, a new currency was all-but immediately issued in the wake of the combination LOP/revaluation of 1993-on.

Now, and according to the best of my knowledge and belief, the Iraqi government has not indicated that they will reissue, yet again, a "newer" dinar. The people wouldn't be able to cope with it and to do so at this time would be tantamount to monetary seppuku.

[sos]

QUOTE=sos']No offense taken. But please do read what I posted before you discredit it. I stated that the currency is simply recalibrated by virtue of removing zeros while maintaining the same value it had prior to LOP. I stated that its purpose was to maintain the relevance of the currency, which is spiraling downward due to runaway inflation. The illustration as a tourniquet was that it was a short-term fix to a currency issue and not a solution, which is all related to hyperinflation. However, the spiraling comes from the fact that inflation causes the devaluing of the currency and the devaluing of the currency feeds the upward trending of inflation. The Lop and its recalibration of the currency serves to alleviate the currency's contribution to the inflation rates (thus slowing the rate)

Take it for what you will but this is not opinion. Economies are not linear.

I certainly read it, but may have partly mis-read. Sorry and thanks for additional clarification. I still, however don't agree with your last statement "The Lop and its recalibration of the currency serves to alleviate the currency's contribution to the inflation rates". The a clean lop has no real effect on inflation.

Again, part of that quote on the university study:

"Redenomination absent monetary reform will not halt inflation, and redenomination should not change individuals’ behavior. Indeed, taken separately from a broader program of macroeconomic reform and monetary tightening, redenomination seems unlikely to generate winners and losers"

So often people so quickly dismiss a lop with a simple statement that it is only used in the midst of or to deal with hyperinflation and from the study that appears to be incorrect. Likewise, statements about how horrible and damaging it is are often not true. The horrible and damaging part comes with other monetary policy that is sometimes done at the same time as the lop (Muhammad's example of North Korea an excellent example).

I agree with all you have said/quoted, but in the context that it was written and do not agree with the idea that LOP is not related to runaway inflation. I am not aware of any currency LOPs that have not been used in that situation. Redenomination is a term applicable to RI, RV, LOP, etc . . . When I said that economies are not linear, I am referring to the fact that changing the monetary policy does not remedy the economic propensities. It is also why I have posted many times over on here that I do not believe that an RV will be the trigger for the restoration of Iraq's economy but rather an RV (either as a singular event or progressive natural increase in value over time) will be the result of a restored Iraqi economy. Redenominations (RV's et all) have to be based on macroeconomic principles and indicators. As long as Iraq's economy is encumbered by sanctions from Chapter VII, they cannot establish true indicators needed to determine the fair value of their economy and thus their currency. There must be a free functioning economy which is enjoying sustained growth in Foreign Exchange, growth in their Gross Domestic Product, low & stable inflation, stability in their currency, foreign capital investment to help established infrastructure to handle the trade, on and on.

Many interrelated events, not just the change of the currency by way of any means of redenomination is any solution. Just as the IMF is responsible for monitoring and advising the correct valuations of each country's currency, they are responsible for assisting in the establishment of the accurate valuation of an emerging currency such as Iraq's. They have to study the aforementioned indicators for Iraq's economy (once unencumbered), which will zero in on the correct valuation and its trend. Absent those indicators, I fail to see how any prevailing authority could make an accurate valuation. Which, if inaccurate, could have devastating effect on all the same areas of the countries economy, GDP, FX, Currency valuation, Capital investment, etc.

[Kent]

I can appreciate your abilities as a writer,. and I don't mean to be disrespectful in any way,. however, this example

of an RV "IS" a LOP!!

Total bummer dude! ...but I think you are right. Mexico '93 appears in the study mentioned earlier (I am trying to paste with formatting, but it is looking strange. sorry if this is messed up when I hit the post button):

Table 1: Inflationary Episodes and Redenomination Outcomes

Country

Years & Annual Inflation Rates

Redenomination?

Albania

1992 (226%)

No

Angola

1992 (299%), 1993 (1379%), 1994 (949%), 1995 (2672%), 1996 (4145%), 1997-2002 (average, 194%).

Yes, 1995.

Argentina

1975-1982; average annual rate 267%

Yes, 1983.

Argentina

1983 (344%), 1984 (627%), 1985 (672%)

Yes, 1985.

Argentina

1987, 1988, 1989 (3080%), 1990 (2314%), 1991 (172%)

Yes, 1992.

Armenia

1994 (4962%), 1995 (176%)

No.

Azerbaijan

1992 (912%), 1993 (1129%), 1994 (1665%), 1995 (412%)

Yes, 1992.

Belarus

1993 (1190%), 1994 (2221%), 1995 (709%)

Yes, 1992.

Belarus

1999 (294%), 2000 (169%)

Yes, 2000.

Bolivia

1981-1986; peaked at 11749% in 1985.

Yes, 1987.

Brazil

1981-1985, average annual rate 151%.

Yes, 1986.

Brazil

1986 (147%), 1987 (228%), 1988 (629%), 1989 (1431%)

Yes, 1989.

Brazil

1990 (2948%), 1991 (433%), 1992 (952%), 1993 (1928%), 1994 (2076%)

Yes, 1993 and 1994.

Bulgaria

1991 (338%), 1996 (122%), 1997 (1058%)

Yes, 1999.

Chile

1973 (362%), 1974 (505%), 1975 (375%), 1976 (212%)

Yes, 1975.

Congo, Dem. Rep.

1979 (101%), 1989 (104%), 1991 (2154%), 1992 (4129%), 1993 (1987%)

Yes, 1993.

Congo, Dem. Rep.

1994 (23773%), 1995 (542%), 1996 (542%), 1997 (176%)

Yes, 1998.

Congo, Dem. Rep.

1999 (285%), 2000 (514%), 2001 (360%)

No.

Croatia

1992 (625%), 1993 (1500%), 1994 (107%)

Yes, 1994.

Georgia

1995 (163%)

Yes, 1995.

Ghana

1977 (116%), 1981 (117%), 1983 (123%)

No.

Indonesia

1962 (131%), 1963 (146%), 1964 (109%), 1965 (307%), 1966 (1136%), 1967 (106%), 1968 (129%)

No.

Israel

1980 (131%), 1981 (117%), 1982 (120%), 1983 (146%), 1984 (374%), 1985 (305%)

Yes, 1980 and 1985.

Kazakhstan

1994 (1877%), 1995 (176%)

No.

Laos

1999 (128%)

No.

Latvia

1992 (243%), 1993 (109%)

Yes, 1993.

Lebanon

1987 (488%), 1988 (128%)

No.

Lithuania

1993 (410%)

Yes, 1993.

Macedonia

1994 (126%)

Yes, 1993.

Mexico

1983 (102%), 1987 (132%), 1988 (114%)

Yes, 1993.

Mongolia

1993 (268%)

No.

Nicaragua

1985-1991. Highest in 1989 (4770%), 1990 (7485%) and 1991 (2945%)

Yes, 1998.

4

Country Years & Annual Inflation Rates Redenomination?

Peru

1983 (112%), 1984 (110%), 1985 (163%)

Yes, 1985.

Peru

1988 (667%), 1989 (3399%), 1990 (409%)

Yes, 1991.

Poland

1982 (104%), 1989 (245%0, 1990 (555%)

Yes, 1995.

Romania

1991 (231%0, 1992 (211%), 1993 (255%), 1994 (137%), 1997 (155%)

Yes, 2005.

Russia

1993 (875%), 1994 (308%), 1995 (197%)

Yes, 1998.

Sierra Leone

1987 (179%), 1990 (111%), 1991 (103%)

No.

Sudan

1991 (124%), 1992 (118%), 1993 (101%), 1994 (115%), 1996 (134%)

Yes, 1992.

Suriname

1993 (144%), 1994 (368%), 1995 (236%)

No.

Turkey

1980 (110%), 1994 (106%)

Yes, 2005.

Uganda

1981 (109%), 1985 9158%), 1986 (161%), 1987 (200%), 1988 (196%).

Yes, 1987.

Ukraine

1993 (4735%), 1994 (891%), 1995 (377%)

Yes, 1996.

Uruguay

1968 (125%)

Yes, 1975.

Uruguay

1990 (113%), 1991 (102%)

Yes, 1993.

Zambia

1989 (123%), 1990 (107%), 1992 (166%), 1993 (183%)

Zimbabwe

2002 (140%), 2003 (estimated 1000%)

No.

a Inflation data from the World Bank, World Development Indicators, annual percent change in consumer prices.

b There are additional redenominations, often in response to high levels of inflation; but comparable inflation data are not available. These include Brazil (redenominates 1967 and 1970), Estonia (1992), Kyrgyz Republic (1993), Moldova (1993), Uzbekistan (1993), and Vietnam (1975 and 1985).