Sunday Guru Opinions @ 11:20 PM CST - 3/15/2020

[ronscarpa]

 

 

3-15-2020   Newshound Guru Jeff    What are we waiting on?  What have been the holdups?  ...there's a lot more to the coronavirus than just a virus...when the rate does change its gonna spike the US markets...IMO they had to use the coronavirus...to bring the markets down so when the rate does change it can shoot back up....

3-15-2020   Intel Guru RayRen98   Iraqi TV in Baghdad is broadcasting that a Prime Minister candidate will be named TODAY and all parties will agree.

3-15-2020   Newshound Guru Pimpy  Article:   "Reducing the Iraqi dinar exchange rate - determinants and alternatives"  ...what they're saying is if you devalue the Iraqi dinar then its gonna kill them on imports...They have to spend more money for raw materials.  That's not what they need...they need to increase the value of the Iraqi dinar so that they could get the raw materials needed to rebuild that country.  If you decrease it it's only gonna hurt them.  It's gonna cause inflation because I'm gonna have to produce more money in order to buy more materials...if oil prices are dropping and it's causing your deficit to go up.   If it's causing your budget deficit to increase why would you then turn around and lower the value of your currency?  That doesn't make sense...It goes on to say why the hell would Iraq lower their exchange rate that's the opposite of what they should be doing.  I'm gonna agree with this article...they go on to make this case that decreasing the value of the currency is the wrong move.  It should be increased...

3-15-2020   Newshound Guru G-Lin   Article:  "Al-Asadi: Tonight, the name of the prime minister will be announced"  Quotes:  "The head of the "Sanad" parliamentary bloc, Ahmed Al-Asadi, announced on Sunday that tonight the name of the prime minister will be announced.";  "in the coming hours, the Seven Committee will decide its decision regarding choosing the appropriate person to form the interim government and submit it for final approval."   Looks like a new P.M. maybe.

3-15-2020   Newshound Guru chattels   "Floating the currency is never going to create any meaningful return on the IQD investment."   is a position that makes good sense to me. I expect that many would likely sell out with a very modest return on their investment.  If one had enough dinar to sell some and "get healthy " or even and wait for an uncertain future then maybe such is a workable wealth plan with a float of the currency. Otherwise my expectation is that Iraq alone is too much of a mess and we must hope for some larger macroeconomic event that may inure to the benefit of the IQD.

3-15-2020   Intel Guru Frank26  ...They are to lift the value of the Iraqi dinar so that it can be on par with the American dollar not just at one to one but beyond.  That's the plan. 

3-15-2020   Newshound Guru Jeff   Article:   "Urgent: The seven committee selects Naim Al-Suhail as a candidate for Prime Minister"  Supposedly they have a committee of 7 members and supposedly they've named this gentleman Al-Suhail as a candidate for prime minister...we'll see if they can actually make that announcement Monday supposedly the deadline to appoint a nominee for the Prime Minister.  Either way I'm not too concerned about the political process.  Remember the Central Bank is completely autonomous from the government itself...the Central Bank has been in communication with the Trump Administration...From all of Iraq's actions in all of '19 they showed us they were setting the stage for this.  In greater depth they showed us they were setting the stage for this in Q1 of this year.  Iraq has showed us and revealed to us from their steps and factual actions they are ready...

3-15-2020   Intel/Newshound Guru sandyf   ...It would be delusional to think that Iraq meets the IMF guidelines for a successful transition. Iraq is in a desperate situation, as was Egypt when the IMF forced the transition as a devaluation mechanism. If Iraq follows the same path it will join Egypt on the list of disorderly transitions with the IQD taking many years to regain the value it has now.  Floating the currency is never going to create any meaningful return on the IQD investment.