The Mystery of China’s Gold Stash May Soon Be Solved The IMF is looking for answers

[Butifldrm]

The Mystery of China’s Gold Stash May Soon Be Solved

The IMF is looking for answers

 

 

11:01 AM CDT 
April 20, 2015

 

 

 

 

Photographer: Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg

 

 

China’s push to challenge U.S. dominance in global trade and finance may involve gold -- a lot of gold.

While the metal is no longer used to back paper money, it remains a big chunk of central bank reserves in the U.S. and Europe. China became the world’s second-largest economy in 2010 and has stepped up efforts to make the yuan a viable competitor to the dollar. That’s led to speculation the government has stockpiled gold as part of a plan to diversify $3.7 trillion in foreign-exchange reserves.

The People’s Bank of China may have tripled holdings of bullion since it last updated them in April 2009, to 3,510 metric tons, says Bloomberg Intelligence, based on trade data, domestic output and China Gold Association figures. A stockpile that big would be second only to the 8,133.5 tons in the U.S.

 

“If you want to set yourself up as a reserve currency, you may want to have assets on your balance sheet other than other fiat currencies,” Bart Melek, head of commodity strategy at TD Securities, said by phone from Toronto. Gold is “certainly viewed as a viable store of value for an up-and-coming global power,” he said.

China may be preparing to update its disclosed holdings because policy makers arepressing to add the yuan to the International Monetary Fund’s currency basket, known as the Special Drawing Right, which includes the dollar, euro, yen and British pound. The tally may come before the IMF’s meetings on the SDR next month or in October, Nomura Holdings Inc. said in an April 8 report.

Monetary Role

Gold played a central role in the international monetary system until the collapse of the Bretton Woods framework of fixed exchange rates in 1973, according to the IMF. While the role of bullion has diminished since then, the fund still holds 2,814 tons and most central banks have some on their balance sheets. Russia more than tripled its holdings since 2005.

China is the world’s largest gold producer and ranked behind only India among top consumers last year, but the amount of metal its central bank last reported holding in 2009 accounts for just 1 percent of foreign-exchange reserves, which have surged more than fivefold in a decade and are the biggest in the world. Most of that is in dollars.

The IMF estimates the dollar makes up 63 percent of world central bank holdings, while the No. 2 currency, the euro, accounts for 22 percent. Data from the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication show the U.S. currency was used for 43 percent of global payments in February.

Approved Programs

While China is promoting the yuan internationally, Swift data show the currency was used for only 1.8 percent of international payments in February. Private investors -- both Chinese and non-Chinese -- can move their money in and out of the country only through approved programs and in limited amounts, and changes in the currency’s value are only permitted in limited ranges.

Adding gold and other assets would ease China’s reliance on the dollar, said Nathan Chow, a Hong Kong-based economist at DBS Group Holdings Ltd.

It may bolster the view China has “a currency that’s well backed by a range of different assets,” said Steven Dooley, a Melbourne-based currency strategist at Western Union Business Solutions for Asia-Pacific. “The most-liquid currencies tend to have a wide range of foreign-exchange reserves.”

Market Mystery

With China disclosing so little about its hoard, finding out how much the central bank has in its vaults is of increasing interest to traders. Confirmation of bigger holdings would signal the importance of the metal as a reserve asset and boost market sentiment, TD Securities’ Melek said. At a time when prices are languishing, the buying could give support, said Suki Cooper, director of commodities at Barclays Plc in New York.

Bullion climbed from $882.05 an ounce at the end of 2008 to a record $1,921.17 in 2011 as investors sought safety from currency depreciation and the threat of inflation. Prices plunged 28 percent in 2013 as rallying stocks and a rebounding economy eroded the appeal of the metal, which traded at $1,198.82 on Tuesday.

China may not have expanded holdings by much. The dollar has strengthened since the middle of last year on expectations the Federal Reserve will boost interest rates, making the U.S. currency more attractive than bullion, which generally offers returns only through price gains.

In a rare comment on gold, Yi Gang, the central bank’s deputy governor, said in March 2013 that the country could only invest as much as 2 percent of its foreign-exchange holdings in gold because the market was too small. The press office of the People’s Bank of China in Beijing didn’t respond to a fax seeking comment sent on April 14.

More Scope

“I wouldn’t expect a huge jump in gold holdings,” said Andy Ji, a currency strategist and China economist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Singapore.

Ashish Bhatia, the World Gold Council’s director, central banks and public policy, in New York, said there’s a lot of room for China to expand. It’s ideal for central banks to have 4 percent to 10 percent of assets in gold, he said. The PBOC may already hold at least 3,000 tons, said Warren Hogan, chief economist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Sydney.

“Gold has always been, through the history of China, a way to project power,” Kenneth Hoffman, a metals and mining analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, said in an interview on April 9. “They are thinking about how to make the yuan more international, and so this is a possible reason why they are buying so much gold.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-20/mystery-of-china-s-gold-stash-may-soon-be-solved-as-imf-beckons

[SocalDinar]

Thanks Butifldrm.

 

 

 

10:23a ET Tuesday, April 21, 2015

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Last week's private meeting in Washington called by the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum and the World Gold Council to discuss the internationalization of the Chinese currency --

-- wasn't the only one of its kind lately. The TF Metals Report's Turd Ferguson today calls attention to a similar meeting held at almost the same time in Rome by the Bank of China, which, while government-owned, is not to be confused with the Chinese central bank, the People's Bank of China.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer

Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

 

  An Overlooked News Item

 

By Turd Ferguson | Tuesday, April 21, 2015 at 9:33 am

Look, there are so many things going on in the world that it's easy to overlook, or simply miss, some of the major news items of the day. One such story caught my eye yesterday and it occurred to me that it definitely needed our attention.

The news item in question comes from the Europe edition of China Daily and I found it while scrolling through the links posted at Santa's (www.jsmineset.com). Let's start by giving you the link to the story and posting a full reprint for you to read.

http://europe.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2015-04/18/content_20468392.htm

ROME - The Bank of China's chief economist Cao Yuanzheng feels China's efforts to promote the renminbi (RMB) as an international currency is blazing a new trail in world history.

"I think this is an unprecedented process in economic history," Cao said in an exclusive interview with Xinhua on the sidelines of the "RMB: Going Global. The Bank of China Renminbi Internationalization Forum".

Renminbi development may be unprecedented but carefully mapped out nevertheless. In his remarks during the forum, Cao said the process has its roots back in the 1990s, and the veteran economist said he still believed it would take several more years for the level of international convertibility of the currency.

"I now think we can speak in terms of years and not decades," Cao said. "I cannot predict the time table, but I think we'll get there before 2020."

He said that when it happens, it will be a positive development not only for China but for the world.

"Yes, there are benefits for China but we believe it is also good for the world," Cao said. "There is deep need for another strong world currency (aside from the dollar and euro, the most used international currencies). For China, I would say there it is more of a challenge than a benefit."

Cao called for reform of the current international monetary and financial order, which dates back to the 1944 Bretton Woods Conference, which divided the world among the lines of developed and developing countries.

Cao noted that that dichotomy is now outdated, as evidenced by the fact that China, with the world's second largest economy, is a developing country. All told, three of the world's 10 largest economies are economies in transition.

"The international governance of the world financial system needs reform," Cao said.

"There are major shortcomings, since it was developed when there was a very big gap between developed and developing countries. Now, about 50 percent of the world's gross domestic product is in the developing world. So it's clear the system needs some reform. And using the renminbi as an international currency can be part of this necessary reform," he said.

The "RMB: Going Global" forum was held specifically to promote the use of the renminbi as an international currency, for trade, as a reserve currency, and for cross-border payments.

The forum featured multiple high-ranking speakers from the Bank of China, the oldest financial institution in the country.

Having now read this yourself, I think you can see why I found this to be so significant. If not, allow me to parse a few sentences for emphasis and to bring them to your attention.

So there you have it. Brush this aside if you want. Go ahead and keep your head buried in the sand along with the rest of the Status Quotians who can't even begin to imagine a tomorrow that isn't exactly like yesterday. Here at TFMR, though, we will continue to prepare for the eventuality of these changes. And if you're still wondering what the heck this has to do with owning gold, I'll leave you with one other clue that the Chinese and The Bank of China have left hiding in plain sight:

 

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/6782/overlooked-news-item