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BONDLADY Chat 10-4-2012


Rogue Knight
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Wed Oct 3, 2012 10:00am EDT

* Iraqis still prefer hard currencies for many transactions

* But some foreign speculators see long-term opportunity

* External, budget surpluses could eventually boost dinar

* For now, central bank wants to keep currency stable

* Any major appreciation unlikely before two or three years

By Aseel Kami

BAGHDAD, Oct 3 (Reuters) - Many Iraqis have lost faith in their dinar currency but to some foreign speculators, it promises big profits. The contrast underlines the uncertainties of investing in Iraq as the country recovers from years of war and economic sanctions.

The logic of the dinar bulls is simple. Iraq's oil exports rose to 2.6 million barrels per day in September, their highest level in three decades; the country aims to hit 6 million bpd by 2017, which would put it close to Saudi Arabia's current level.

Even if unstable politics, militant violence and bureaucratic inefficiency prevent that target from being hit, Iraq still seems to be on the threshold of an oil boom that will transform its finances.

Inflows of new oil revenue could give the country big external surpluses and push state finances deep into the black by late this decade - the classic recipe for a strong currency.

"As far as our investors are concerned, when they buy Iraqi dinars they do know it is a long-term investment. You know it takes time for a country to rebuild itself," said Hassnain Ali Agha, president of Dinar Trade, a U.S. dealer of exotic currencies.

Because the dinar is not freely traded by banks outside Iraq, online dealers of banknotes such as Dinar Trade are the only way that most foreigners can invest in the currency. The Las Vegas-based company says it sells as much as hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of dinars daily, shipping dinar notes to thousands of customers in the United States and elsewhere.

Agha said that because of optimism about Iraq's oil wealth, there had been solid demand for dinars since his company was founded in 2004, a year after the U.S. invasion which triggered years of political violence and economic turmoil.

Back in Baghdad, however, Iraqis themselves are not convinced. Many take what opportunities they have to change their dinars into hard currency, and conduct all but small day-to-day transactions in U.S. dollars.

"We have no trust in the Iraqi dinar - we feel afraid to save it. We trust the dollar more. The dollar does not go up and down, it is fixed," said housewife and mother-of-two Eman Saadeldine.

[bondLady] WILD SWINGS The dinar has endured wild swings over the past three decades. In the 1980s, one dinar bought around $3, but economic sanctions imposed on Iraq around the time of the 1991 Gulf War sent the currency into decline and stoked inflation, which the government fuelled by printing money. By late 1995, $1 bought as much as 3,000 dinars. After the 2003 invasion, the central bank intervened in the currency market to strengthen the dinar, using its supplies of dollars to manage the exchange rate. But over the last several years, even as Iraq's oil production has expanded, there has been none of the appreciation for which speculators have been hoping. The central bank now sells dollars in daily auctions at a fixed price of 1,166 dinars, a level barely changed since 2009. In fact, the dinar has recently faced downward pressure as a result of the international economic sanctions imposed on neighbouring Iran and Syria. Iraqi traders rushed to buy dollars to sell on illicitly to residents and businesses in those countries, which are hungry for hard currency. The dinar fell as low as 1,280 in the open market this year before Iraqi authorities reacted by allowing two state-run banks and some private lenders to sell dollars, helping push the exchange rate back to around 1,200 currently.

Another factor counting against the dinar is the fact that the largest banknote is only 25,000 dinars. This often makes the currency unattractive to use in an economy where the banking system is primitive and deals are often done in cash. Saadeldine recalls paying in cash for a new house in 2009. "If our money had been in dinars, it would have been impossible for us to carry it. It was in dollars and we carried it in a small suitcase," she said. The central bank has been considering plans to knock three zeros off the nominal value of banknotes to simplify financial transactions. This would not in itself increase the real value of the dinar, since prices would adjust in line with the redenomination, but economic experts say it could improve confidence in the dinar and thus boost its value eventually. "It would increase trust in the dinar even though its value would not change," said Baghdad-based economist Majid al-Souri. "Indirectly, when trust increases there will be appreciation." Earlier this year, however, the cabinet decided to suspend the technically complex redenomination plan until further notice, saying the economic climate was not suitable.

[bondLady] The biggest obstacle to dinar appreciation is the fact that for now at least, Iraqi authorities appear content with the exchange rate in its current range. In a memorandum to the International Monetary Fund on economic and financial policies for 2011, written in March that year, the Iraqi government said it saw benefits in keeping the dinar stable. "We believe that the policy of maintaining a stable exchange rate continues to be appropriate, as it provides a solid anchor for the public's expectations in an otherwise uncertain environment and in an economy with a still very low level of financial intermediation," it said.

LONG TERM In the long term, however, Iraq's finances and economy may improve so dramatically that authorities feel comfortable allowing the dinar to appreciate under the pressure of flows of oil money into the country. The IMF expects this year's estimated budget surplus of just 0.2 percent of gross domestic product to balloon to 12.1 percent in 2017. The country's balance of trade in goods and services, in deficit as recently as 2010, is projected over the next five years to shift to a large surplus of 11.3 percent of GDP. Deputy central bank governor Mudher Kasim told Reuters that he expected redenomination of the dinar to go ahead in 2014 or later, by which time the amount of Iraqi currency in circulation would have increased significantly, making financial dealings in cash even harder. In the long term, the central bank aims to make 1 dinar equal to $1 with a combination of redenomination and appreciation, although that will take over three years because of instability in the Middle East, Kasim said: "If not for the regional circumstances, we would proceed faster with that plan." Some analysts think the appreciation could go further. Kamal al-Basri, research director at the Iraqi Institute for Economic Reforms, an independent research body in Baghdad, said he expected the dinar to stay stable for the next three years, but that afterwards it might strengthen beyond parity against the dollar, including the effect of redenomination.

[bondLady] For that to happen, Iraqi politics will have to stabilise, skill and education levels rise and the economy diversify so that it is not so heavily dependent on oil exports, he said. Speaking at the Baghdad currency exchange shop that he owns, Ahmed Abdul-Ridha said the dinar's stability in the past three years was good, but it did not indicate the long-term trend. "We wish the dinar's value would go back to what it was like before, when it used to equal $3 in the 1970s and even in the 1980s," he said. "I expect that day will come. Why not? What we are going through is an abnormal condition...We are an oil country." http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/03/iraq-economy-dinar-idUSL5E8KT13720121003

[carpentersr] Well at least it ended on a nice note..

[bondLady] its got a lot of great things in it

[bondLady] which im about to show you

[bondLady] and the long term thing

[bondLady] is what I've been through

[bondLady] most of you haven't

[bondLady] and theres no way they about to break into a oil boom will it go another 2-3 years

[bondLady] believe that

[bondLady] know that

[bondLady] , Oct 3 (Reuters) - Many Iraqis have lost faith in their dinar currency but to some foreign speculators, it promises big profits. The contrast underlines the uncertainties of investing in Iraq as the country recovers from years of war and economic sanctions.

[bondLady] we know they have lost faith in the iqd

[bondLady] cbi has done everything to make them fall in love with the usd

[bondLady] and so did we while we were there

[bondLady] we supplied 1000's of jobs

[bondLady] and they got used for it

[bondLady] they know exactly what a 20.00 bill will buy

[bondLady] and if they don't a have a 25k note then their carrying around a big stack

[bondLady] but to some foreign speculators, it promises big profits

[bondLady] that is us

[shredd] for sure

[bondLady] The contrast underlines the uncertainties of investing in Iraq as the country recovers from years of war and economic sanctions.

[bondLady] and thats why its called a speculative investment

[bondLady] its a gamble and its a risk but its not illegal

[bondLady] the risk being that it might not rv,ri,rd, whatever to what people might like you to believe it would

[bondLady] or it could

[bondLady] no one knows but a few people what will happen in the end

[bondLady] all we can do is study our investment

[bondLady] and try to accomplish what we set out to do

[bondLady] get a pay off

[bondLady] now I totally believe in it

[bondLady] I wouldn't have wasted going on 9 years of my life studying bozos who fight over a piece of dirt or you got my water or you got choclate in my peanut butter crap

[bondLady] fighting is all they have ever known

[bondLady] and there dang good at it

[bondLady] oughta be they been doing it 5000 years

[bondLady] they just don't win much of the time

[bondLady] because their fights often stop progress and growth

[bondLady] we've seen it daily

[bondLady] when something good comes

[bondLady] they fight and rip it apart like animals until theres not much left

[bondLady] and they don't like to be rushed about anything

[shredd] true

[bondLady] so again as I've said for years

[bondLady] when you think about iraq

[bondLady] and trying to understand these articles and the way they think

[bondLady] you cannot think like a westerner

[bondLady] you wont get anywhere

[bondLady] were just not on their wave length

[bondLady] many of them still have the mind set of back in early biblical days

[bondLady] many still live in the desert under the stars, tents ,campfires

[bondLady] the wealthy live nice

[bondLady] but the majority do not

[bondLady] when you think a law should be passed on a certain day

[bondLady] throw your watch out the window

[bondLady] they don't go by our time clock

[bondLady] they go and move at their own pace, not ours

[bondLady] The logic of the dinar bulls is simple. Iraq's oil exports rose to 2.6 million barrels per day in September, their highest level in three decades; the country aims to hit 6 million bpd by 2017, which would put it close to Saudi Arabia's current level.

[bondLady] Even if unstable politics, militant violence and bureaucratic inefficiency prevent that target from being hit, Iraq still seems to be on the threshold of an oil boom that will transform its finances.

[bondLady] what have I told you about oil booms?

[bondLady] I even spent hours making a thread for you all about it

[bondLady] oil booms and gold booms

[bondLady] iraq has both

[shredd] growth

[bondLady] and its about to come knocking on their door

[bondLady] it really has already began

[bondLady] but when they pass the infrastructure law and the hcl

[bondLady] there's no turning back

[bondLady] the boom will hit them in a way they will be forced to do things in a timely way

[bondLady] there won't be any other way

[bondLady] they will have so much money pouring in

[bondLady] they won't be able to spend it at the rate it will arrive

[bondLady] and nor can their currency stay shackled to 1166

[bondLady] it just can't be

[bondLady] there is a currency manipulation thing that most countries would nail them for in a huge way

[bondLady] like what chinas trying to do

[bondLady] we're all over them for it

[bondLady] you wanna lose our buissness ?

[bondLady] keep it up

[bondLady] well slap a trade embargo on you

[bondLady] you will suffer from it

[bondLady] so this isn't gonna be the road iraq can take

[bondLady] the majority of the world has either forgiven their debt

[bondLady] saddam racked up billons and billons all over the world

[bondLady] or they made payment plans

[bondLady] all the progress they have made in 9 years

[bondLady] could go down in flames if they tried

[bondLady] thats not gonna happen

[bondLady] the hcl and infrastructure law is on the horizon

[bondLady] gear up its all about to happen

[bondLady] also the amendments per the investment laws

[bondLady] making it easier for the world to come in and play in the sand box

[bondLady] iraq has a destiny to fulfill

[bondLady] it will be a brand new country from the ground up shortly

[bondLady] when the infrastructure law goes into affect

[bondLady] buildings, roads, bridges, schools, hospitals all things that will help the people

[bondLady] most things will happen in a very short time

[bondLady] 5 years etc

[bondLady] and will continue to grow for generations to come

[bondLady] and this will bring over a million jobs

[bondLady] when people make money

[bondLady] they spend money

[bondLady] the tarriff taxes

[bondLady] thats about to happen

[bondLady] they can't get into the wto without it

[bondLady] the wto will bring in goods at a reasonable price from all over the world

[bondLady] good things not like the stuff their neighboring countries are bringing in costing them literally 1 trillon usd last year just to destroy foods and drinks unfit for human consumption

[bondLady] these are all huge pieces about to go into affect

[bondLady] things that won't let the dinar stay at 1166

[bondLady] do you see the road map I'm trying to show you yet ?

[bondLady] Inflow of new oil revenue could give the country big external surpluses and push state finances deep into the black by late this decade - the classic recipe for a strong currency.

[bondLady] how long is a decade

[bondLady] 10 year

[bondLady] big external surpluses and push state finances deep into the black by late this decade

[bondLady] by late this decade

[bondLady] this is this decade FYI

[bondLady] "As far as our investors are concerned, when they buy Iraqi dinars they do know it is a long-term investment. You know it takes time for a country to rebuild itself," said Hassnain Ali Agha, president of Dinar Trade, a U.S. dealer of exotic currencies.

[bondLady] Hassnain Ali Agha,

[bondLady] thats Ali from Dinar Trade

[bondLady] "You know it takes time for a country to rebuild itself,"

[bondLady] and they have been trying despite the corruption thats become a way of life for 9 years

[bondLady] and now trying to bring the ones to justice for it

[bondLady] and they do have a good start on rebuilding

[bondLady] but the laws I just showed you will create a economic boom which will drive them forward very fast

[bondLady] Because the dinar is not freely traded by banks outside Iraq, online dealers of banknotes such as Dinar Trade are the only way that most foreigners can invest in the currency. The Las Vegas-based company says it sells as much as hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of dinars daily, shipping dinar notes to thousands of customers in the United States and elsewhere.

[bondLady] Agha said that because of optimism about Iraq's oil wealth, there had been solid demand for dinars since his company was founded in 2004, a year after the U.S. invasion which triggered years of political violence and economic turmoil.

[bondLady] why do people invest in countries right after a war ?

[bondLady] do you ever wonder about that at all ?

[bondLady] usually a war happens

[bondLady] their currency bottoms out

[bondLady] but after a war

[bondLady] its time to rebuild

[bondLady] and bring back up the value of their money

[bondLady] you can't expect them to instantly go back to what it was before when they had a complete infrastructure

[bondLady] and all their industries were at 100%

[bondLady] their agriculture was 100%

[bondLady] everything was 100%

[bondLady] electric, water, gas, oil

[bondLady] homes

[bondLady] jobs

[bondLady] they have to make way for all these things

[bondLady] everything was crushed

[bondLady] do you get that

[bondLady] everything was wiped out

[bondLady] very few places were unaffected

[bondLady] so to start from the ground up

[bondLady] and see such huge leaps as we are seeing

[bondLady] you cant see it if you dont stop thinking with a western mind set

[bondLady] you are not an iraqi

[bondLady] you do not live in iraq

[bondLady] so stop assuming you know and see things

[bondLady] its about them not us

[bondLady] its a speculative investment for us we hope will pay off

[bondLady] and I believe it will

[bondLady] but this is theiers, we're just riding on there shirt tails

[bondLady] and we helped in a major way

[bondLady] building up their reserves to what they are

[bondLady] whether it be through oil sales or buying their currency

[bondLady] we helped get them to this point

[bondLady] now its time for them to put on big boy pants

[bondLady] man up and free their country, build it

[bondLady] and I believe after all these years and the much needed laws to make this come about

[bondLady] it's close

[bondLady] I'm not saying tomorrow or the next day or anytime or yesterday

[bondLady] I'm saying progress is going on and this is what we want or we would never see our investment come to life

[bondLady] it's not like you invested in say Siberia

[bondLady] you invested in a country that is so rich in every single thing you could possibly think of

[bondLady] lies in the ground in iraq

[bondLady] it has yet to reach it's capibilities

[bondLady] but its coming, can you see that

[bondLady] Back in Baghdad, however, Iraqis themselves are not convinced. Many take what opportunities they have to change their dinars into hard currency, and conduct all but small day-to-day transactions in U.S. dollars. "We have no trust in the Iraqi dinar - we feel afraid to save it. We trust the dollar more. The dollar does not go up and down, it is fixed," said housewife and mother-of-two Eman Saadeldine.

[bondLady] because they have been through hell and back

[bondLady] and still going through it

[bondLady] they once saw their currency over $3 to 1

[bondLady] to see it 3000 to 1

[bondLady] had to devaste them

[bondLady] it wasn't easy to bring it to 1166 to 1

[bondLady] but they did

[bondLady] now there ready to move to the next stage we want to see

[bondLady] but they are afraid to dream and believe it could happen

[bondLady] wouldn't you be

[bondLady] WILD SWINGS The dinar has endured wild swings over the past three decades. In the 1980s, one dinar bought around $3, but economic sanctions imposed on Iraq around the time of the 1991 Gulf War sent the currency into decline and stoked inflation, which the government fuelled by printing money. By late 1995, $1 bought as much as 3,000 dinars. After the 2003 invasion, the central bank intervened in the currency market to strengthen the dinar, using its supplies of dollars to manage the exchange rate.

[bondLady] But over the last several years, even as Iraq's oil production has expanded, there has been none of the appreciation for which speculators have been hoping. The central bank now sells dollars in daily auctions at a fixed price of 1,166 dinars, a level barely changed since 2009.

[bondLady] because many thought it would happen almost over night because thats what gurus told them

[bondLady] when I got into this

[bondLady] I knew it would be long term

[bondLady] I hoped for sooner but as time went by and I began to understand what I was reading and the people and what things actually meant

[bondLady] I knew it wasn't any time soon

[bondLady] 4 years ago things started to break

[bondLady] and we were finally able to see some progress

[bondLady] even had a few dinar and hcl articles come out a year

[bondLady] then 3 years ago those all tripled in the articles

[bondLady] then 2 years

[bondLady] and they were showing up monthly

[bondLady] then for the last yr every thing we needed to see come to pass was all in the news almost every day

[bondLady] dinar articles

[bondLady] ld's

[bondLady] took them forever to finally admit they had them and they were planning on bringing them to light

[bondLady] hcl

[bondLady] article 140

[bondLady] ch 7

[bondLady] monetary change

[bondLady] these things are the bottom line to our investment

[bondLady] get to know your investment

[bondLady] read and study

[bondLady] In fact, the dinar has recently faced downward pressure as a result of the international economic sanctions imposed on neighbouring Iran and Syria. Iraqi traders rushed to buy dollars to sell on illicitly to residents and businesses in those countries, which are hungry for hard currency. The dinar fell as low as 1,280 in the open market this year before Iraqi authorities reacted by allowing two state-run banks and some private lenders to sell dollars, helping push the exchange rate back to around 1,200 currently.

[bondLady] this is what I've told you since last year the effects Iran and Syria had on Iraqs economy because of UN sanctions on Iran and Syria

[bondLady] them buying up as many usd as they could from Iraq

[bondLady] hurting iraqs economy to try and save their own

[bondLady] forcing these hostile countries to use their reserves of whatever currency they could to buy usd

[bondLady] forcing them to use an un-rv'd iqd

[bondLady] Another factor counting against the dinar is the fact that the largest banknote is only 25,000 dinars. This often makes the currency unattractive to use in an economy where the banking system is primitive and deals are often done in cash. Saadeldine recalls paying in cash for a new house in 2009. "If our money had been in dinars, it would have been impossible for us to carry it. It was in dollars and we carried it in a small suitcase," she said.

[bondLady] The central bank has been considering plans to knock three zeros off the nominal value of banknotes to simplify financial transactions. This would not in itself increase the real value of the dinar, since prices would adjust in line with the redenomination, but economic experts say it could improve confidence in the dinar and thus boost its value eventually. "It would increase trust in the dinar even though its value would not change," said Baghdad-based economist Majid al-Souri. "Indirectly, when trust increases there will be appreciation." Earlier this year, however, the cabinet decided to suspend the technically complex redenomination plan until further notice, saying the economic climate was not suitable.

[bondLady] why?

[bondLady] because of much needed lawsto pass

[bondLady] like the infrastructure law

[bondLady] the money laundry law

[bondLady] the hcl

[bondLady] complete article 140

[bondLady] give back property to the rightful owners and compensate for the ones losses

[bondLady] chapter 7

[bondLady] all of it

[bondLady] so if they are indeed on the verge of making all these things happen

[bondLady] then how can they keep a currency down thats already to come out into the sun light

[bondLady] understand?

[bondLady] see the road map?

[bondLady] The biggest obstacle to dinar appreciation is the fact that for now at least, Iraqi authorities appear content with the exchange rate in its current range. In a memorandum to the International Monetary Fund on economic and financial policies for 2011, written in March that year, the Iraqi government said it saw benefits in keeping the dinar stable. "We believe that the policy of maintaining a stable exchange rate continues to be appropriate, as it provides a solid anchor for the public's expectations in an otherwise uncertain environment and in an economy with a still very low level of financial intermediation," it said.

[bondLady] In a memorandum to the International Monetary Fund on economic and financial policies for 2011, written in March that year, the Iraqi government said it saw benefits in keeping the dinar stable.

[bondLady] what did the article say today

[bondLady] the cbi had stablized the currency again

http://www.alliraqnews.com/en/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=19929&catid=37:economy&Itemid=41

[bondLady] after the surrounding countries almost sent the rate back approx 3 years

[bondLady] they brought it back up to close to 1166

[bondLady] 1180-1190

[bondLady] close enough

[bondLady] its stable

[bondLady] Deputy central bank governor Mudher Kasim told Reuters that he expected redenomination of the dinar to go ahead in 2014 or later, by which time the amount of Iraqi currency in circulation would have increased significantly, making financial dealings in cash even harder.

[bondLady] when you have all the things i"ve just shown you and talked about

[bondLady] come about

[bondLady] then you can see why it couldnt go to 2014

[bondLady] how could it

[bondLady] how can they manipulate it to those extremes

[bondLady] why would they want to

[bondLady] they may be barbaric in a lot of ways

[bondLady] but they love iraq

[bondLady] its the cradle of civilization

[bondLady] they have huge pride in iraq

[bondLady] and at 1 point

[bondLady] they held great pride in there currency

[bondLady] the cbi did everything to make them fall in love with the usd

[bondLady] now the CBI is going to have to do everything to get them to fall out of love with the usd

[bondLady] and fall in love all over again with their own currency, the iqd

[bondLady] hence bringing back their lost pride and growth and their own spirit, rebuilding

[grashopa] give it buying power............and they will

[bondLady] as their country grows so will they

[bondLady] In the long term, the central bank aims to make 1 dinar equal to $1 with a combination of redenomination and appreciation, although that will take over three years because of instability in the Middle East, Kasim said: "If not for the regional circumstances, we would proceed faster with that plan." Some analysts think the appreciation could go further. Kamal al-Basri, research director at the Iraqi Institute for Economic Reforms, an independent research body in Baghdad, said he expected the dinar to stay stable for the next three years, but that afterwards it might strengthen beyond parity against the dollar, including the effect of redenomination.

[bondLady] For that to happen, Iraqi politics will have to stabilise, skill and education levels rise and the economy diversify so that it is not so heavily dependent on oil exports, he said. Speaking at the Baghdad currency exchange shop that he owns, Ahmed Abdul-Ridha said the dinar's stability in the past three years was good, but it did not indicate the long-term trend. "We wish the dinar's value would go back to what it was like before, when it used to equal $3 in the 1970s and even in the 1980s," he said. "I expect that day will come. Why not? What we are going through is an abnormal condition...We are an oil country."

[bondLady] thats the article I tried to show you

[bondLady] thats the breakdown,I tried to help you with understanding this

[bondLady] I hope it helped

[bondLady] Thank you all

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Thanks for bringing BL's post over. She or he has some interesting thoughts and opinions. BL's post is a good read for everyone on this site.

Iraq has potential and opportunity to become a wealthy Nation, if the Iraqi's can set aside their religious conflict, iron out the issues in Parliament, build infrastructure to support oil trade and function in a way that is conducive to business. Let's not forget the sanctions.

At some point Iraq will have to get off the USD *** to save face in the ME. I hope that is soon.

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While I understand where BL is going with this analysis, it shares the same flaw, IMHO, with many explanations that I hear.

The fundamental is this. The more valuable the Dinar becomes against the dollar, the more expensive it is for companies in the U.S. to invest in Iraq. The more expensive it is, the less incentive they have to invest there. U.S. companies are not sitting on piles of dinar that they use to invest in Iraq. They are spending dollars when they build a factory, or a refinery, etc. The less the Dinar is worth versus the dollar, the farther their dollar goes.

It is hard to understand, given that fact, how it would be in Iraq's best interest, who wants foreign investment, to increase the cost of doing business there for U.S. companies by 1000x.

It makes far more sense that Iraq would want a gradual rise in value over time as these U.S. companies took advantage of the lower cost of investment to build businesses in Iraq and boost their economy.

YMMV, of course.

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