A Cloudy Forecast

[WallyWeaver]

I decided to post this because I made very good money with Broadvision Inc. (BVSN) in the first quarter of this year. In fact, I bought in at $17/ share in mid-January and cashed-out at $39/ share in late March. It was a great move, in my opinion (talk about patting oneself on the back ).

From there the stock dropped to $23/ share but it is still up from $8/ share in December. It is now back up to around $31/ share today and rising. I do think this volatile stock (only 4.5 mil. shares available) will go over $100/ share in the next few years. I'm not an investment advisor but that is how I'm reading the tea leaves. Anyway, just thought I'd share a little about how I've been making money this year. This article discusses BVSN as a potential play on "cloud computing/ networking."

WW.

A Cloudy Forecast

April 13, 2012 | 3 commentsby: MissionIR | includes: AAPL, AMZN, BVSN, CRM, EBAY, GOOG, IBM, ORCL, SAP

This year it is estimated that fully 80% of new commercial computer enterprise applications will have a cloud-based offering. Whether this turns out to be true, when it comes to the future of information processing, virtually every forecast sees clouds on the horizon in leading roles. It's a market seen as too disruptive to ignore, expected to top $200 billion in revenues before 2020. It threatens the status quo, much as did the rise of the Internet itself. (Microsoft was late in embracing the Internet. Don't look for it to be as slow when it comes to clouds.)

The question now seems only to be the form that the revolution will take, whether it will evolve into "Platform as a Service," "Software as a Service," or remain more broad-based as Enterprise Content Management markets, all which fall under the general industry of cloud computing. Additionally, security issues have to be resolved to the point that businesses will feel comfortable storing customer-sensitive data in clouds.

cloud computing is simply a way to deliver software and applications over the Internet and manage data stored remotely. For the customers of cloud providers, it eliminates the need for your PC to be connected to a server. The information accessed by users is found in the "cloud," data and software stored in remote servers. Space on these servers is usually leased from the cloud provider. Software can be modified company-wide much more quickly, lowering upgrade costs and downtime. It also permits employees to work remotely from any place they can establish an Internet connection. Furthermore, the expense of maintaining the cloud is passed on to the cloud provider.

The key revenue drivers in this industry are licensing revenue (income from leasing software and applications to end-users), leasing revenue (income from leasing data-storage space), consulting revenue, and sales income from the sale of specific software and applications to the end users. Any company that uses computers could potentially benefit from cloud computing. The distribution channel is the same for all providers: the Internet. Companies in this sector can literally compete on a global basis because all the customer needs is a reliable Internet connection.

Consolidation is anticipated among providers, so underlying it all, of course, is the question of who will gobble up whom. IBM (IBM), SAP (SAP), and Oracle (ORCL) have all sought to acquire cloud and SaaS technology companies, a quick way to establish a cloud presence. In the meantime, Amazon (AMZN), Google (GOOG), and Apple (AAPL) have already planted their flags.

• Amazon Web Services offers a cloud computing platform through a collection of web services for remote computing, such as EC2 and S3, designed primarily to help developers. EC2, for example, offers developers Amazon's strong computing environment, essentially renting virtual computers, allowing developers to build failure-resistant applications.
• Apple's iCloud allows users to store music, photos, and documents, which can then be seamlessly grabbed by any user devices, meaning total 24/7 wireless access. The result is the company's latest step toward a fully cloud-based central processing station and warehouse for all things Apple.
• Google Cloud Connect brings a cloud to MS Office (or brings Office to a cloud). It lets users share, backup, and edit MS Word, PowerPoint, and Excel documents over a cloud, with a system that coordinates activities in order to avoid confusion. Documents can even be edited offline, and synchronized later when online.

A brief sampling of the investment opportunities in cloud computing can be found by looking at the following 3 companies, one new-comer, and 2 old-hands:

• GlobalWise Investments (GWIV.OB), via its wholly-owned subsidiary, Intellinetics, is an example of a company that offers investors a chance to experience significant growth. GWIV has developed a platform that defines a new industry benchmark and game-changing approach by combining advanced virtualization and automated content management with an open and service-oriented architecture using web services. Trading at $1.55 a share, the company has a market cap of $50.51M. Because GlobalWise only recently became a publicly traded company, available historical financial data is limited. However, revenues increased 26.7% YOY for 2010 to 2011. Gross profit increased 26% in the same period. The company has multiple growth initiatives in place to accelerate the pace of future expansion.
• Broadvision (BVSN) offers a cloud-based "network of networks" enterprise social platform, for the virtual, mobile, social enterprise. Basically, it's designed to help businesses connect with employees, customers, and partners, and it's fully cloud-based. Trading at $25.29 a share, the company has a market cap of $116.11M. Although recently falling on hard times -- last year, revenues declined by approximately 19.8% compared to the numbers reported for 2010 -- the company is well established in the industry and could be poised for a turnaround.
• More risk-adverse investors wanting a piece of the cloud action should look at Salesforce.com (CRM). Salesforce.com, an enterprise cloud computing company, provides a social enterprise cloud platform and apps to help employees collaborate easily and connect with customers. Trading at $154.67 a share, the company has a market cap of $21.11B. Revenues for 2011 were 37.1% greater than the value reported for the prior year. According to MSN Money, over the last five years revenues have grown by an average of 35.45% per year.

As with any industry, cloud computing does have risks. Successful implementation of cloud technology is complex, and very easy to get wrong. There are constantly changing security-related and cost-related questions, issues which may not be fully appreciated at first consideration. Moreover, in spite of what is sometimes promised, cloud-based applications can be difficult to manage and to grow if not planned correctly. Although in-house processing and storage carries risks, working in a shared cloud environment means accepting and dealing with different degrees and types of processing and data risks to which some users may not easily adjust. In addition, individual user needs are dynamic, fluctuating as products change, and cloud options and pricing are changing at the same time, making it a singularly difficult world to predict.

Nevertheless, the move to the cloud by companies big and small is only accelerating, with new product and service offerings appearing daily, reminiscent of the 1990s when people first started hearing names like eBay (EBAY) and Amazon. Some companies offer limited applications, some offer comprehensive platforms, but all can benefit customers by providing reduced software and hardware costs, simpler IT infrastructure, and increased efficiencies: all which can directly boost net income.

Investors wanting growth or diversification should take a close look at the clouds. In so doing, they will get a forecast of the future of large-scale computing and the companies that will provide out-sourced IT services, an area that shows potential signs of significant growth.

Link:

http://seekingalpha....rce=marketwatch

[pattyangel]

May I call you WW, WalleyWeaver,

Here you have presented another great article of interest. Diversification is one of my number one goal and you are shooting all sort of information at us, it just gets my blood boiling for more input. Passing this on to hubby. I don't if you know this but hubby is in Kuwait and as limited time for computer research. So the ball is in my court to pass research as such, to him.

So my hats off to you in providing and sharing this information. Never in my world that I thought this site would grow to extraordinary heights of diversified information.

Again thank you Much.

[WallyWeaver]

May I call you WW, WalleyWeaver,

Here you have presented another great article of interest. Diversification is one of my number one goal and you are shooting all sort of information at us, it just gets my blood boiling for more input. Passing this on to hubby. I don't if you know this but hubby is in Kuwait and as limited time for computer research. So the ball is in my court to pass research as such, to him.

So my hats off to you in providing and sharing this information. Never in my world that I thought this site would grow to extraordinary heights of diversified information.

Again thank you Much.

Yes, you are more than welcome to call me WW., patty. I actually prefer that.

Diversification is great, no question about that. And glad I could help.

I agree that this site has much to offer in many areas of interest. It has really given me (and many others) an outlet to "socially network" ideas to others and, in turn, receive ideas back. In other words, this site is a great medium of exchange. I could not begin to tell you how much I have learned, about a wide variety of topics, on this site. For that I am grateful.... both to Adam, the moderators, and to all contributors.

Glad you enjoy the information I'm sending and thanks for the kind words. My hope is that we all can become a little more educated about the investment world so that IF we get a nice exchange rate we will be well prepared to be wise with our new found money. And even if the IQD doesn't pan out like we hoped hopefully we will have found new avenues to make good investments.

Thanks again patty, I always enjoy your input. Hopefully your husband returns home to you safely and soon.

WW.

[Danan]

Thanks WW, I will also pass on this info to my hubby. Always enjoy reading your posts.

[WallyWeaver]

Thanks WW, I will also pass on this info to my hubby. Always enjoy reading your posts.

Thanks for the kind words, Danan, and happy investing.

WW.

[20MillionDinar]

Excellent post WW! Thanks again for your contributions to this site, I always enjoy what you bring to DV!

[WallyWeaver]

Excellent post WW! Thanks again for your contributions to this site, I always enjoy what you bring to DV!

Thanks 20, I feel the same way about your contributions to DV. +1, friend.

On another note, and hopefully I am not being too nosy, I was reading in the "Dinar" section of the forums and I noticed that you posted earlier in the week that you seem to be leaning towards us not making much off of our IQD speculation. This got my attention because I generally hold what you say in high regard.

All that to say, what are your thoughts about where we are at? I noticed you also take the position of incremental rises over a period of years, maybe a decade. As an investor I wouldn't mind this as I believe that as long as my money is growing I am happy.

Would love to "peruse" some of your thoughts on this.

WW.

[20MillionDinar]

Thanks 20, I feel the same way about your contributions to DV. +1, friend.

On another note, and hopefully I am not being too nosy, I was reading in the "Dinar" section of the forums and I noticed that you posted earlier in the week that you seem to be leaning towards us not making much off of our IQD speculation. This got my attention because I generally hold what you say in high regard.

All that to say, what are your thoughts about where we are at? I noticed you also take the position of incremental rises over a period of years, maybe a decade. As an investor I wouldn't mind this as I believe that as long as my money is growing I am happy.

Would love to "peruse" some of your thoughts on this.

WW.

Well, first of all I am in no way "in the know" when it comes to the Dinar so what I say is only my opinion and should be taken as so. I tend to look at the facts and what I see is too much Dinar!

M2 of 60 Trillion

I then compare the 60 trillion to a 1:1 RV which would equal 60 Trillion USD.

M3 Money Supply for Selected Countries

When considering M3, the total money supply (of the world) exceeds US$50.1 trillion! Of this amount, the U.S., Euro-Zone and Japan account for US$33.1 trillion or 66.2% of the total. The following graph shows a cross-country comparison for M3.

http://news.goldseek.../1185894180.php

What I am wondering is how does Iraq, a war torn country, come out of the gate with a newly revalued currency which now equals more than every other country combined? Iraq's currency would now be worth twice of that of the USA, the Eurozone, as well as Japan combined! Even if Iraq has HALF of the stated money supply, it would make Iraq equal to the Eurozone, the USA, and Japan combined.

This is where I find it hard to believe that an overnight 1:1 RV is possible. Even $.50 is pushing it...

However, I do feel that a gradual increase in the IQD is possible! This way they could slowly reduce the amount in circulation while increasing the value of each existing currency unit in circulation. Increase oil exports, build up infrastructure, promote growth in the private sector, which will all help to build their countries' overall GDP. This is how a currency gains value in the real world.

If Iraq is worth 60 Billion but has 30 Trillion dinar in circulation. They could keep that same value ($60 Billion) but make each existing currency unit (IQD) worth more by reducing the overall amount. However, the decrease in currency in circulation needs to be gradual, as well as the increase in the value of the IQD. The reason it needs to be gradual / controlled is so that they maintain inflation. Keeping inflation under control has been one of their biggest priorities during the past 9 years or so, I don't think they want to destroy everything they've worked for just to have a high valued currency overnight.

Japan's total M2 money supply is equal to 6 Trillion USD

Iraq's total M2 Money supply is 60 Trillion IQD equal to 60 Billion USD

A $0.10 straight up RV of the IQD would make Iraq equal to Japan!

Edited April 15, 2012 by 20MillionDinar

[WallyWeaver]

This is where I find it hard to believe that an overnight 1:1 RV is possible. Even $.50 is pushing it...

However, I do feel that a gradual increase in the IQD is possible!

Brilliant explanation 20, thanks for taking the time. I understand that you are not an investment advisor (neither am I) but I still value your opinion as a valuable contributor to this site.

I am in the same camp as you. The amount of currency they have in circulation has always been a very difficult hurdle for me to get over. A straight up 1:1 Rv does seem illogical to me because of that.

I am glad to read, however, that you do see a possibility for a gradual increase over time (as do I). I got a little concerned when (I think) you posted that you have sold most of your dinar. The only reason someone would sell is if they thought nothing was going to happen, in my opinion. But I do believe that you are still holding some so you do still have at least some skin in the game (meaning you still hold out hoping we will get at least some return on our investment).

My view is I remember reading an article a few months back that it is Iraq's goal to have the strongest currency in the ME. That tells me that no matter what happens (LOP, incremental Rv, straight-up Rv) we are going to make some kind of a profit off of this.... eventually.

Also, as is not a secret, I am a Christian and do believe that Iraq has a major part to play in the future. That also keeps me interested in this speculation. This doesn't mean that "God told me we are going to be rich." It just means that my interpretation of what the Bible says about this is Iraq (Babylon, Shinar) will be a major economic player in the future and, I figure, why not try to capitalize off of that in some way?

So, I treat the IQD, and Iraq, like any other investment I am involved in... I allocate funds to many types of investments and always expect to make at least some profit, otherwise I wouldn't waste the capital. I am very active on Wall Street (duh, right?) and in the precious metals game. If I make a 100% increase on my investment in those arenas I am ecstatic. The most I am ever hoping for, in the best scenarios, is around an 800% return. That kind of stuff happens all the time on Wall Street (see Warren Buffett, Apple, etc.). If we end up making 800%, or more, on the IQD we should all be giddy about it, in my opinion. That would be a heck of a return!

With that, thanks again for the excellent post. The one thing I can say for sure about the IQD is it has been an invaluable experience in my investment education.

WW.

[20MillionDinar]

Brilliant explanation 20, thanks for taking the time. I understand that you are not an investment advisor (neither am I) but I still value your opinion as a valuable contributor to this site.

I am in the same camp as you. The amount of currency they have in circulation has always been a very difficult hurdle for me to get over. A straight up 1:1 Rv does seem illogical to me because of that.

I am glad to read, however, that you do see a possibility for a gradual increase over time (as do I). I got a little concerned when (I think) you posted that you have sold most of your dinar. The only reason someone would sell is if they thought nothing was going to happen, in my opinion. But I do believe that you are still holding some so you do still have at least some skin in the game (meaning you still hold out hoping we will get at least some return on our investment).

My view is I remember reading an article a few months back that it is Iraq's goal to have the strongest currency in the ME. That tells me that no matter what happens (LOP, incremental Rv, straight-up Rv) we are going to make some kind of a profit off of this.... eventually.

Also, as is not a secret, I am a Christian and do believe that Iraq has a major part to play in the future. That also keeps me interested in this speculation. This doesn't mean that "God told me we are going to be rich." It just means that my interpretation of what the Bible says about this is Iraq (Babylon, Shinar) will be a major economic player in the future and, I figure, why not try to capitalize off of that in some way?

So, I treat the IQD, and Iraq, like any other investment I am involved in... I allocate funds to many types of investments and always expect to make at least some profit, otherwise I wouldn't waste the capital. I am very active on Wall Street (duh, right?) and in the precious metals game. If I make a 100% increase on my investment in those arenas I am ecstatic. The most I am ever hoping for, in the best scenarios, is around an 800% return. That kind of stuff happens all the time on Wall Street (see Warren Buffett, Apple, etc.). If we end up making 800%, or more, on the IQD we should all be giddy about it, in my opinion. That would be a heck of a return!

With that, thanks again for the excellent post. The one thing I can say for sure about the IQD is it has been an invaluable experience in my investment education.

WW.

You're right, I did sell the majority of my holdings and have since "put it to work" in a few other areas. One of my FOREX accounts has made $800 since March 26th and I only started with $1,500. My other FOREX account is also doing extremely well. I'm next looking into a Stock Swing Trade signal service as well as a Binary Options signal service which have both proven to be extremely profitable during the past year now. My goal is to keep building up my capital and keep diversifying into other investments as time goes on.

If things keep going the way they have been, I should be able to sell my Landscaping business by the end of the year and focus solely on my investments.

I agree, an 800% return on the IQD would be awesome! By the way, if the IQD is still in the same position next year as it is today I'll be looking into purchasing more Dinar again with the hopes that they do not "LOP" their currency. 100k would be a nice long term position in the IQD!

[WallyWeaver]

One of my FOREX accounts has made $800 since March 26th and I only started with $1,500. My other FOREX account is also doing extremely well.

If things keep going the way they have been, I should be able to sell my Landscaping business by the end of the year and focus solely on my investments.

100k would be a nice long term position in the IQD!

Hey, congratulations man! That's fantastic.

I'm in the same boat as you, not in the same business but I hope to walk away from my job at some point in the near future, as well. Benjamin Franklin is my role model for this. I remember reading his autobiography when I was younger and being especially affected by the part where he basically had enough money to retire in his thirties and, therefore, because he no longer had to worry about money, was able to pursue his interests.

This is where I hope to be. Sounds like you do, too.

I am also staying invested in the IQD and waiting to see what happens. I do, however, dump far more money into my brokerage account and also into physical silver. I am getting ready to buy "The Intelligent Investor" by Benjamin Graham... apparently it is the book that Warren Buffett swears by. I try to move through about 1 investing book per month but I think that one may take a few months to get through (just under 700 pages long, I think).

I expect to be able to retire, with a nice income and no debt, within the next five years. We'll see....

$100k would be a nice long term-position in the IQD, no question about that. You'll have to change your name to 100MillionDinar, though.

I leave you with a quote from Mr. Franklin:

"To apply myself industriously to whatever business I take in hand, and not divert my mind from my business by any foolish project of suddenly growing rich; for industry and patience are the surest means of plenty." – From Franklin’s “Plan for Future Conduct,” written at age 20

WW.