ClydeDriver

Er... why would they be worried about repaying us? Did we say we would only unseat Saddam if they repay us? Bush did say the war would pay for itself... and it will... just not the way you think. When Iraq gets up to it's full oil & natural gas production capacities in 5-10 years or so, it will help drive down the cost of oil... saving us money. Thanks to the removal of Saddam, there is one less destabilizing element in the Middle East, also helping to keep oil prices down. The US is one of 5 countries with major oil contracts with Iraq. Some of the billions, if not trillions, in Dinar the US holds will be used to buy oil from Iraq. Iraq is going to have a free market based economy... opening the door for US imports... thus helping (at least in a small way) our economy... US companies will have an opportunity to invest in Iraq, helping to feed what will be a frenzy of consumer activity within Iraq and it's soon to evolve middle class... You folks really need to stop thinking one dimensionally... and look at the overall picture. This is HUGE as China and India's middle classes are growing at an alarming rate, substantially increasing the demand for oil! China's middle class is growing so fast they can't build cars and motorcycles fast enough to meet demand. And since China is probably the wealthiest country in the world right now, they will subsidize their oil industry as much as they need to so these growing demands can be met.

Thanks FDyer, I appreciate the feedback. And thank you for understanding... you obviously get it. Look, I'm not trying to rain on anyone's parade here, but if you are going to be a responsible investor you need to look at all the angles... you can't run around with blinders on having people blow sunshine up your butt and ignore scenarios that are contrary to what you hope will happen. That is Jr. High stuff. I have a nice chunk of Dinar tucked away in my safety deposit box, and I will be thrilled if they pull this off without a lop. But, I don't have rose colored glasses on... I understand there could be a 'down' side... thus why I only invested what I could afford to lose or have tied up for a while. Be smart. Educate yourself as best you can. And think objectively.

After almost 20 years of not having this 'lost wealth', I really don't think there are very many Iraqis who expect to get that wealth back. I believe the GOI would, in a nice way, say 'Sorry about your luck. That was then, this is now'. And really, during the Saddam regime, how many wealthy Iraqis were there outside of the ruling class? How many were not corrupt? Not very many. This is an interesting look at it, but is flawed in it's logic. Under Saddam, outside of the ruling class, Iraq was one step above a third world country. The best the GOI can hope to do is increase the value of the current monetary system. They don't have the luxury of worrying about things from 20 years ago...

Um... how are they 'screwing the world' if everyone triples their investment? They will only screw the world and thus, themselves, if the post lop RV is too low... like around 1:1... if they lop they can then justify an RV closer to what they want, which is around Kuwait's rate. So if they DO indeed RV at close to that... say 3:1... nobody is getting screwed. I don't remember seeing a sales pitch from the GOI stating we'd make millions tomorrow if we invest thousands today. There isn't enough oil in the entire Gulf region to justify the 10s of trillions in USD we are talking about if they don't lop, debase, devalue, (whatever you want to call it) the current Dinar and try to RV at just 1:1. You people realize that just one trillion is a million million, right? And estimates of the amount of physical and digital dinar floating around vary from between 10 and 30 trillion, right? Iraq is a country of 30 million people, with a current GDP of around 70 billion... Saudi Arabia's GDP is probably the best in the region, and it is around 370 billion... and they have an established economy with a fully functional infrastructure!

Exactly... don't forget one broker is going to charge $150 per million dinar, plus a spread... which will still be lower than what most banks will charge you (6-8%). Gee... almost like he anticipated the possibility of a lop... thus why the per million fee instead of just a straight spread %... We would probably need a rate of at least 1.30:1 to just break even... under the lop theory anyway...

The lower denom dinar notes are already printed. They were printed at or around the same time the current larger denoms were printed. They are currently being held back as they have no value until the RV happens. And, if the lop theory holds... they don't want someone exchanging all the current large denoms for small denoms in an attempt to avoid the lop...

Sooo... if after this is all said and done... and IF the lopsters end up being right... who is going to have the guts to post they were wrong and the lopsters were right? Sorry folks, but I'm starting to buy into this whole lop theory. Better hope for a post-lop rate of $2+ or after fees and taxes we aren't going to make much... Remember, even if they lop, and say they RV at $3, the average Iraqi will triple his money... how happy would you be if the USD suddenly tripled in value? If they lop, the GOI didn't 'screw us' out of anything. They are simply following the rules set down for them by the IMF, WB, and UN for establishing a legitimate monetary policy. That means they had to start with monopoly money, and prove they could manage it. Thus the high denoms. This is how I see it happening. Lop of all currency (physical and electronic). This covers bank accounts, electronic holdings by foriegn govts., etc. For us, and Joe Iraqi, it means a 25K dinar note becomes 25. If you have 10,000,000 dinar in the bank, it becomes 10,000 dinar. All current currency in circulation becomes the 'old' currency. They release the new currency (low denoms) and RV the value of this new Dinar against the dollar. The new currency (low denoms) become the standard currency of Iraq, complete with new value that is on par with other currencies in the Gulf. Now for everyone that thinks this will cause anarchy in Iraq... not so fast. It all depends on the new rate. Example as follows: Currently: 25,000 Dinar note is worth $21.50 USD. Lop: 25,000 Dinar note is equal to 25 Dinar note, and BOTH are worth $.02 USD. New currency (low denoms) is released. RV: Assume a rate of $3.00. 25,000/25 Dinar note is now worth $64.50 USD. Joe Iraqi is happy because he tripled the value of his savings/money in pocket. GOI is happy because they now have a tradeable currency that has value on the international economic front. And they did it without going broke. The problem for us is if the new rate comes in at only 1:1 or a little over, and they reqire all the large denoms to be turned in before the rate moves up to where it should be. At that rate we lose money on the exchange. Let's not blame the GOI for the slick marketing campaign by currency traders and exchange sites that encouraged us to come to our own conclusions... I fell for it too. Nobody outright lied to me about the potential of this investment... but they did dangle some info out there that would lead me to conclude that I could make millions off of only a few thousand dollars... and neglected to mention a few things that would have made me a bit more cautious (like 4.5 trillion in physical paper currency in circulation alone). This is the only feasable way we will ever see a $3+ RV. And this is why I only invested what I could afford to lose... lol... I will make this promise. If I am wrong, I will come on this board and admit it... enthusiastically. And you guys can throw bricks at me all day... because I won't feel a thing. I can admit I was wrong and I'll eat my crow... all the way to the bank... 'cuz I'll be rich just like you. But... If I'm right... who is going to have the guts to come on here and say they were wrong? Hmmmm?

That won't happen. They will recall all the large notes by the end of the year. What I am coming to realize is they can't afford to RV at some of the numbers we are hearing and cover the RV. This is the scenario I'm starting to visualize... they lop the large denoms... 25k, 10k, 5k, and 1k. They basically make them worth their small denom equivilants... IOW 25,000 dinar note becomes a 25 dinar note, the 10,000 dinar note becomes a 10 dinar note, etc. At the same time, they RV the value of the Dinar... say at the upper end of the rates we have been told... like $3.50... this simultaniously adds significant value to the Dinar on international markets and gives their people increased buying power without having to cover the estimated 3-4 Trillion in large denom hard currency currently in circulation. This is the BEST case scenario as if you had 5,000,000 Dinar, after the combination LOP of large denoms and RV of the Dinar you would cash that 5 mill in for $17,500 before exchange fees and taxes. If it RVs at anything under around $1.50-$1.75 you would lose money after exchange fees and taxes... scary thought isn't it?

Well I certainly hope I'm wrong here, but this is starting to look like a 3 zero LOP of our older 'new Dinar', and an RV of the newer small denom Dinars. Since governments holding Dinar more than likely have digital Dinar as opposed to physical Dinar (like us), do they get the new RV rate when it happens or can they 'LOP' the digital Dinar??? Do the math... let's just say there is 4 TRILLION physical Dinar in circulation right now... could they even RV at $1/Dinar without lopping? They would instantly have 4 trillion USD in outstanding Dinar instead of the current 4 Billion USD... and that doesn't include the digital Dinar that various governments are holding... which who knows how much that could be... How many tons of gold and barrels of oil would it take to cover that kind of outstanding debt?

Here we go! Almost forgot where I put this son of a gun... heh... was quite the trick holding the 25k note in one hand and the camera in the other... I'm not the most coordinated person in the world...

I wanna be Dinar-ified! Now where did I stash that one Dinar note I didn't put in the Safety Deposit Box...

I'm ClydeDriver, and no it doesn't mean I have a *** boyfriend named Clyde... I work with Clydesdale horses! They have become my passion and I love driving the big boys! - CD