Econman33

That was great. Thanks.

LOL

move by Brazil to rein in appreciation of its currency is under scrutiny by analysts, who said it could potentially herald the renewal of currency wars started last year. The country's central bank imposed reserve requirements on domestic banks' foreign exchange requirements to stop them from shorting the dollar and sending the real skyward. This is the third move since October Brazil has undertaken to prevent "hot money" undermining its export sector by rendering it uncompetitive. Neil Shearing, senior emerging markets economist at Capital Economics, said: "The move aims to reduce speculation that the real will appreciate further and in this respect should be viewed as the latest shot in the now infamous currency war." Since early 2009, the real has appreciated more than 35% against the dollar, but following yesterday's move it slipped 1.1% to $1.6912 by midday in New York. Brazil was one of the first emerging market economies to warn it would actively protect its currency if it deemed it was appreciating too much against the dollar. Jeremy Batstone-Carr, director of private client research at Charles Stanley said: "In my view, the currency wars have by and large already begun and now have achieved another leg up." In the third quarter of last year, some emerging markets said the Federal Reserve's decision to extend quantitative easing was keeping the dollar artificially weak. But towards the end of 2010 and since the start of 2011 a positive data stream from the US has negated this impact and the greenback is now on the rise. Brazil's new government, which came into office less than a week ago has made it clear that it is aware of currency war potential. On Wednesday, finance minister Guido Mantega, said: "We're not going to allow our American friends to melt the dollar." Batstone-Carr thinks the stakes are high for the fledgling government: "It's quite clear that the new government is nowhere near as popular as the old one and if you are going to create domestic popularity you try to get out of the trap early. It is a populist measure, but it plays out domestically as well as internationally. Protectionist measures always play well to domestic audiences, but how successful it is remains to be seen." The move taken by the central bank will force lenders to keep reserve deposits in cash and director of the central bank, Aldo Mendes predicted the action could potentially cut back short positions in the dollar to $10 billion, compared to last month's $16.8 billion. Shearing said: "While the move is a sensible step from Brazil's perspective, the key to taming the real (and preventing overheated and unbalanced growth) still lies in recalibrating the macro policy mix in favour of a tighter fiscal position and lower interest rates." In April's upcoming meeting of BRIC nations (Brazil, Russia, China and India), Brazil said it intends to discuss China's policy towards the renminbi and whether this is effecting the competitiveness of other emerging nations' manufacturers. Up until now the other BRIC nations have kept resolutely quiet and refrained from criticising China for holding down its currency. On Monday, the Chilean government acted to buy $12 billion US dollars in a move to boost the greenback against the peso. Since June, the Chilean currency has notched up more than 17% against the dollar.

Good article. http://www.iii.co.uk/articles/13803/brazil-about-reignite-currency-war

Thanks for the sobering post. I have been in the Dinar investment less than a year. I would have never even considered it 2 years ago. The odds were way to low to risk the investment back then. The last couple of months things in Iraq have improved dramatically. I will not say an RV will or will not happen. That is why I have always treated my Dinar like a penny stock in a big oil and gas company with really bad management operating in a war zone. So I just sit back and wait for good news or bad. Hoping for the best.

I work for a publicly traded medical device company. I have to sign an "Insider Trading Agreement" yearly to protect stockholders. If asked, I cannot even say we are doing good, great or bad. As a professional representative, I have a duty to uphold, or risk being fired and sued. Is that worth it. Absolutely Not!!!!. Thanks Tryinmybest, for keeping it real here.

That is the best Monday morning news I have heard in a long time. Thanks!

KUWAIT CITY (AFP) – Kuwait's Emir Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmad al-Sabah on Monday ordered the distribution of $4 billion and free food for 14 months to citizens as the oil-rich emirate prepares to mark national occasions. Each of the 1.12 million native citizens will get 1,000 dinars ($3,572) in cash as well as free essential food items until March 31, 2012, the KUNA news agency cited state minister for cabinet affairs Rudhan al-Rudhan as saying. The Gulf state, whose financial assets top $300 billion, will next month mark the 50th anniversary of independence, 20th anniversary of liberation from Iraqi occupation and the fifth anniversary of the emir's ascendance to power. The announcement was made following an overnight meeting of the cabinet. The 2.4 million foreign residents of Kuwait are excluded from the grant and the free food. Inflation in Kuwait soared to 5.9 percent in November, the highest in 20 months on the back of high food prices which rose by 12.3 percent. The fifth largest OPEC producer has posted budget surpluses in each of the past 11 fiscal years, totalling more than $140 billion, and is also headed for another healthy surplus this year thanks to rising oil price. The government has made similar but smaller grants in the past. The Gulf Arab state provides a cradle-to-grave welfare system to its citizens who receive most public services and petrol at heavily subsidised prices and pay no income tax. Some 80 percent of Kuwait's 360,000-strong national workforce are employed in government jobs, where the average monthly wage is more than $3,500. Somebody is feeling Jolly this week. Let's hope they see a very bright near future.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jan/16/gulf-war-anniversary-kuwait Gulf war, 20 years on: Kuwait emerges from under Iraq's shadowAnniversary visit to Baghdad marks new beginning for tiny oil state that still has unfinished business with feared neighbour Share19 Martin Chulov in Kuwait guardian.co.uk, Sunday 16 January 2011 16.58 GMT Article history A US patrol walks pass burning oilwells during the Desert Storm war that liberated Kuwait from Iraq. Photograph: John Gaps/Associated Press Last Wednesday, the first Kuwaiti prime minister to travel to Iraq since 1990 touched down in Baghdad on an official visit, carrying two decades of baggage - and simmering reservations. Sheikh Nasser Mohammed al-Sabah was greeted warmly at the same airport where a belligerent Saddam Hussein had brusquely seen off the last Kuwait official to visit - in August 1990 - just before he launched his ill-fated invasion. Things were clearly very different this time. Nouri al-Maliki and an array of his officials were there to meet the neighbours who most of those waiting in line had not got to know in the eight years since Saddam was ousted. Until the guests arrived, Kuwait had remained one of the frostiest fronts in post-Saddam Iraq – a standoff that the American-led invasion had not been able to end. It had taken not one, but two invasions, then eight years of sizing each other up to get this far. And, in the eyes of many Kuwaitis, their leaders seem to finally have found a trust that citizens are yet to develop. "We have a lot of unfinished business with them," said Fatima al-Ibrahimi, a 22-year-old university student as she sipped a Starbucks coffee in downtown Kuwait City. "They have needed to do things to convince us that they want to be a good neighbour. We are yet to see many results." Throughout much of her lifetime, Kuwait has been a place where time stood still, despite the invasion of Iraq, launched 20 years ago on 16 January, which freed the country from Saddam's marauders after a six-month occupation. The invasion, known as Desert Storm, had several themes in common with the campaign of 2003, known as Operation Iraqi Freedom. They were both launched by a George Bush; they led to the rapid capitulation of the Iraqi army; and they – at least notionally – kept a tyrant clear of Kuwait's northern border. But, despite Desert Storm, Kuwaitis seem largely to believe that the spectre of Saddam's return loomed large for the following decade, crippling an ability to capitalise on a new-found freedom. "The invasion in 1991 was a result of a massive shock to the system," said a Kuwait-based western official. "It wasn't really liberation. "The real liberation came in 2003." " Don't forget that in 1994, 1998 and 2002, Saddam mobilised his army and moved south," the official added. "There was always a threat there, in Kuwait's eyes. There was no sense of confidence and no sense of being able to build a future. In the 70s and 80s, this was a go-ahead place." Even now, eight years after the second invasion, Kuwait seems an apprehensive city state. Throughout the 1990s, the economy seemed to chug along rather than roar ahead like the equally affluent Gulf petro-states to its south - Qatar, Abu Dhabi and Dubai. Several new skyscrapers soar to the heavens, new shopping malls flank broad highways and there is no shortage of five-star hotels or luxury cars throughout Kuwait City. But a residual lack of confidence remains, despite the verified 108bn barrels of oil beneath the feet of the tiny country that seemingly safeguards its future for more than a century, and a per capita income that is among the highest in the world. "Things are fine here," said Omar al-Tamimi on the Kuwait waterfront. "Look around, there is building, there is progress and the government looks after its citizens very well. "But things would be a lot better if the Americans had gone all the way to Baghdad [in 1991]. "The fact that they didn't set us back. We have always lived in Iraq's shadow, even when things deteriorated there." A lost decade caused by a reluctance to overthrow Saddam in 1991 is a common refrain in Kuwait as the 20th anniversary of the war that freed it ticks over. The eight years since invading armies went all the way has seen a significant effort to right the wrongs of Iraq's 1990 occupation, with $30bn in damages being paid from Iraq's treasury and 5% of oil revenues being used to pay monthly instalments of an outstanding $22bn. A further $15bn that Kuwait had lent Iraq before the invasion is yet to be addressed, along with other issues from Iraq's brief but brutal reign. These include the return of treasures looted from Kuwait during Iraq's invasion, the fate of farmers on the border, a disputed maritime boundary along the Shatt al-Arab waterway and the repatriation of the remains of 364 Kuwaitis who were taken to Iraq by the retreating invaders. Late last year, Iraq was given added impetus to square the ledger with Kuwait, when the UN pledged to lift a swathe of long-standing restrictions which restore the international standing it had before the 1990 invasion - the caveat being it had to make things good with Kuwait. "This is why the Iraqis are so keen to help now," said a senior Kuwaiti official who refused to be named. "They have not shown too many trust building measures so far, but let's see how they behave now." Of all the debts to settle, it is perhaps the issue of missing persons which resonates deepest with Kuwaitis. Dr Ibrahim al-Shaheen, head of Kuwait's national committee for missing and POW affairs, has the job of finding the remaining bodies. Efforts are focusing on Nasireya in southern Iraq, which is thought to contain most of the outstanding remains. Last year, Kuwaiti and Iraqi officials conducted their first field dig in the suspected Nasireyah site. They will soon be back for a further look. "From 05-08 the situation in Iraq was very bad and they were committed to survival, nothing else," said Dr Shaheen. "After that we felt things had improved and said they should be doing more. But no documents were left behind by Saddam's regime. They had hidden the mass graves completely." Throughout the city, there are few outward signs of the war and the two invasions that took place here in 1990-91. A National Memorial Museum showcases relics from Iraq's military rule – and souvenirs seized from Iraq after Baghdad fell in 2003, such as a bronze bust of Saddam's head and a favourite blue cloak of his sadistic son, Uday. Across town, a ruined house where a small band of resistance fighters held out against Iraqi tank shells is one of the few other obvious war landmarks. There are some signs, however, of a new will to move on. As prime minister Nasser al-Sabah returned from Baghdad on Wednesday evening he would have flown near two giant new urban environment construction sites, a waterside development called Pearl City and another called Silk City, which comprise Kuwait's first steps to match the Gulf states for size and glitz as well as stake a claim on being a major regional investment hub. Both, as well as a giant port, are expected to be finished within five years. "We will look back on 2010 as being a hugely important, if not watershed year for Kuwait," the western official said. "If these things are resolved and you can be confident in the designs of your northern neighbour then there is a way forward."

http://www.kuna.net.kw/NewsAgenciesPublicSite/ArticleDetails.aspx?id=2138389&Language=en Kuwait Amir grants each citizen KD 1,000 on occasion of nat''l anniversaries Politics 1/17/2011 1:25:00 AM KUWAIT, Jan 16 (KUNA) -- His Highness the Amir Sheikh Sabah Al-Ahmad Al-Sabah instructed granting every Kuwaiti citizen KD 1,000 (USD 3,599) as well as offering food rations for free for 13 months as of next month, a cabinet statement said Sunday. The cabinet, chaired by His Highness the Prime Minister Sheikh Nasser Mohammad Al-Ahmad Al-Sabah, said it took note of the Amiri grant which would coincide with Sheikh Sabah's 5th anniversary. The cabinet assigned the ministry of finance to take necessary steps to disperse the grant, which reflected the Amir's keenness to helping citizens overcome their living conditions, Minister of state for Cabinet Affairs Roudhan Al-Roudhan said in a statement after the government meeting. The Amir, he noted, also instructed food rations to be offered for free between February 1, 2011 and March 31, 2013. The grants, he noted, marked the occasion of the 50th independence anniversary, 20th liberation anniversary and 5th anniversary of Sheikh Sabah's assumption of office, due next month. The cabinet, meanwhile, paid tribute to late Amir Sheikh Jaber Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-sabah who passed away five years ago. (pickup previous) bs KUNA 170125 Jan 11NNNN

Agreed. Another factor that I did not see mentioned in original post was that a country's Debt/ GDP ratio and their ability to cover that debt is also a factor in the currency value. I believe currently Iraq debt is about 14% of GDP. As oil and other commodities/ products are traded, this percentage should drop further, thus raising currency value if all other variables remain static. Stability is the biggest challenge for Iraq at this point. Some interesting numbers on the CBI site under Statistics and Key Financial Indicators. Notice the trends over the last 7 years. Things are looking better.

Sweet

Yes, and if they default they can break up all the under-funded pension plans that they gave away. My point being that they will use bankrupcy to break their Union contracts. Then renegotiate at a more manageable level. All of which I favor. Save for your own retirement like the rest of us.

I agree with most of the above. However, I just learned that Bond holders are the first and primary to get paid in the event of a state going bankrupt. The state unions and pension holders will have to sue. I found this very interesting. This is what they expect to happen in CA. That is why I moved away from there in 93.

Thanks. Plus it is 3-months old.

Good Post. I type to slow. You beat me to it.

Thanks. Great find

Great post. Always enjoy your work or shared work in this case.

A 6'3" 240lb cowboy walks in a bar. He goes up to bartender and ask for for a shot of whiskey with a real attitute. He chugs it and slams shot glass on the bar says give me another. He's a real badazz. Slams the second glass down and walks out of the bar. He walks back in the bar and yells " what piece of sh_t painted the balls on my horse yellow. Over in the corner a 6'6" 300 pound guy stands up and says I did. The smaller first cowboy says OK just wanted to let you know the first coat is dry and it is ready for a second coat.

Not sure about that math there. You are reading it backwards. The numbers are listed as a decimal to 1KWD. Look at Canadian Dollar. It would be About 3.5 to equal KWD.

That may make sense. I guess we are back to wait and see.

I just crossed referenced phone number and it is legit. This was discussed earlier. Why didn't it get investigated further? Are we on to something here? If the site is fake they went overboard.

This has been discussed for the last 2 hours on another post.

If you go to Doha site and scroll down the drop down and choose New York. It looked the exact same as the home page. Hard to tell. Let's hope this is legit.

I agree. There is a lot of money to make by this bank if this is true. It would be all over at .35 per Dinar. I would keep a little just for fun.