bostonangler Posted July 11, 2017 Report Share Posted July 11, 2017 The DOW hitting 25,000 or 15,000... B/A 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim1cor13 Posted July 20, 2017 Report Share Posted July 20, 2017 (edited) Not likely to hit 15,000 without a strong underlying reason or surprise but the hard reality of this market is over bought and we still have done nothing to address future long term unfunded financial liabilities of upwards of 200 Trillion$ That alone could demolish the market at some point of course, and there are no easy answers to the decades long problems. I see a price in between...17 - 18,000 after correction. Keep in mind we are also seeing much of the very same mistakes being made inside the housing market again...same easy money policies coming from some big lenders, and that is already causing problems. There is no such thing as endless growth, that is a keynesian lie. Everything runs in cycles, markets are no different, but all things can be whipped out of order for awhile, so we will see. it will be fear based as all financial fall outs are...watch the volatility when a stronger correction happens, but for years they have been fairly small, but that will change also at some point when reality hits euphoria. Thanks BA Edited July 20, 2017 by Jim1cor13 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bostonangler Posted July 25, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 25, 2017 On 7/20/2017 at 7:21 PM, Jim1cor13 said: Not likely to hit 15,000 without a strong underlying reason or surprise but the hard reality of this market is over bought and we still have done nothing to address future long term unfunded financial liabilities of upwards of 200 Trillion$ That alone could demolish the market at some point of course, and there are no easy answers to the decades long problems. I see a price in between...17 - 18,000 after correction. Keep in mind we are also seeing much of the very same mistakes being made inside the housing market again...same easy money policies coming from some big lenders, and that is already causing problems. There is no such thing as endless growth, that is a keynesian lie. Everything runs in cycles, markets are no different, but all things can be whipped out of order for awhile, so we will see. it will be fear based as all financial fall outs are...watch the volatility when a stronger correction happens, but for years they have been fairly small, but that will change also at some point when reality hits euphoria. Thanks BA As always a great perspective. Thanks for your insight... I'm not sure how low it will go, but right now we are living with a propped up market moving with no real support. Yes we are making the same mistakes. The Banks too big to fail are now bigger. People have gone back to living beyond their means. IMF is reducing their numbers for projected growth. Our country continues to add debt. I think the correction will be large and ugly. People have seen their investments and retirement accounts soar and most have not adjusted to take their profits, meaning the losses will be shocking. As fast as the markets have gone up, it seems they go down much faster. B/A 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim1cor13 Posted July 27, 2017 Report Share Posted July 27, 2017 On 7/25/2017 at 4:17 PM, bostonangler said: As always a great perspective. Thanks for your insight... I'm not sure how low it will go, but right now we are living with a propped up market moving with no real support system" rel="">support. Yes we are making the same mistakes. The Banks too big to fail are now bigger. People have gone back to living beyond their means. IMF is reducing their numbers for projected growth. Our country continues to add debt. I think the correction will be large and ugly. People have seen their investments and retirement accounts soar and most have not adjusted to take their profits, meaning the losses will be shocking. As fast as the markets have gone up, it seems they go down much faster. B/A Thanks BA. Indeed, typically corrections happen in a very short period of time, because it is fueled by fear. When fear fuels anything, rational critical thought are thrown out of the window, and the fight or flight reflex begins, usually with flight being the go to action. So when things naturally correct, as a cycle, corrections can take much longer to unfold...but when they are initiated by a sudden unexpected surprise that immediately increases volatility which is a measure of a markets daily ranges, things can go south really quick. The challenges are epic, and those challenges never really went away even after all the years of "easing" and dumping money into a system that consistently repeats the same mistakes. One of the most difficult things to overcome is our own biases, they are what usually hinders our ability to notice certain things, to think critically, and to act rationally when reality disagrees with our bias and beliefs which can then set us up for living with cognitive dissonance which can be costly. It is a denial about reality because it does not agree with our perceptions and it is not what we want to hear, so we reject what could be very helpful to us and continue to try and protect our beliefs and biases. We have all been guilty of this at one time or another. Have a good day BA 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bostonangler Posted February 5, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 On 7/27/2017 at 10:27 AM, Jim1cor13 said: typically corrections happen in a very short period of time, because it is fueled by fear. I was wrong thinking it would go down before the 25,000 mark. I felt it was overbought due to the jubilance of the election. I guess we got to the dance a little early, but the correction appears to be in full swing. B/A Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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