My Opinion, My Perspective, My Two Cents

[RVDinar4MyFamily]

Well, here we are, 4th of July 2011 and no RV and people are starting to freak out (mostly the Newbies) that the predictions failed to pan out.

To many of us, this is not surprise, we have seen it over and over in the past.

Now before this gets out of hand for some of you that are new to this investment, I would like for you to read something I posted when I finally stepped back and realized what this investment can do to you.

I made a couple additions to bring it up to date, but the over all message remains the same.

Facing the reality, My two cents

posted Feb. 7, 2011

Hello all my fellow Dinarians,

The purpose of this post is for many reasons, for those who have read my posts in the past, you probably have a sense of my point of view on this investment, I am hard core believer in facts and have little tolerance for the repeated broken promises in the form of bs intel and false hope rumors. Most of which are aimed at the new investors who fall prey to their own lack of knowledge about this investment, especially about aforementioned rumors and intel.

I myself, like many others on here, fell prey to my own lack of knowledge when I first became involved. Even though I quickly wised up to the "it's going to happen Monday" rumors, I still fell prey to the second stage of this investment, research and fact finding. I spent countless hours, sleepless nights, and many, many pots of coffee looking for more and more documents, news articles, anything else I could find to educate myself about the RV and what will have to happen for it to be done. I educated myself on Iraq’s history, government, economy, people, religion, etc. I educated myself about things outside of Iraq that might have to do with the RV like the GOI, HCL,WTO, UN, IMF, CPA, ISX, CBI, Federal Reserve, etc. etc. etc. I spent hours in the forums and chat rooms discussing & debating with, trying to learn more from, or pass on my knowledge to, other dinarians. Basically, I let this investment consume me so much that I lost track of what was happening now and let the dream of being rich run my everyday life, so much so that I even skipped church on Sundays.

I own a small seasonal business in Denver, so the winter is my off season and generally my vacation time when business was good. However, last year’s business was not good enough to afford my usual time off and my wife had to have surgery just after the season ended and is now on disability, lucky for us she had decent disability benefits. The economy was so bad that my customers (who are very wealthy people) were not spending money on the bigger ticket items my business depends on and some of these very wealthy people still have not paid me for some of last year’s invoices. I should have realized sooner where things were headed, but I turned a blind eye when I let myself be consumed as I spoke of above. I have tried to find some work, but the economy is so bad that there is not much work to be found right now. We have resorted to selling off years of old, held onto items both around the house and in storage to make it by so far, but some bills still fell behind as we allocated what we do have to the more important bills. I now have a job lined up for the upcoming season, and I am returning to school at the ripe old age of 39 but the soonest the job will start is mid-march, so we still have to make it through a couple more months if I can't find something else in the mean time. Still, there was a lot more I could have done sooner had I not let this investment consume me the way I did.

I know there are many of my fellow dinarians who are falling victim to the same thing who are reading this now. My hope is to get others who are faced with similar circumstances to realize that they too have fallen victim and need to learn to balance this investment with what still has to be done today. Sure, you could be rich tomorrow or next week, but what if this were to take 3 more months or even 3 more years? Can you afford to sit and watch this everyday until it happens if it does take that long? At what point do you realize that relying on rumors and intel saying you will be rich soon are not reliable in this investment? I myself reached this point about 2 weeks ago, I realized that so much of what we hear has to be done for the RV to happen is also nothing more than rumor. Don't get me wrong I very much believe this will happen. It is the how, when, and why it will happen that I have issue with.

I reached a point where I understood this investment well enough for myself to realize what I believe will lead to this investment paying off. This is JUST MY OPINION and nothing else. I based this opinion on research provided by others like me who focus on the facts along with my own research. I have a group of people that I discuss with although I also recently have not been keeping up with them either as much as I was before. I still read the news, and look at the documents provided by others and to a certain extent keep myself informed on the recent happenings, but not even close to a much as I use to, so if something in my information I am going to share is off, I apologize.

While I have backed away from the forums and chat rooms, I still keep myself pretty well informed on certain areas that I believe do have a direct or indirect impact on this investment. Some areas that I do not understand as well, I rely on certain others and their opinions but also try to research as much as I can understand to increase my knowledge in those areas. I make no claims that my own research is not flawed, inaccurate, or wrongly interpreted. There is so much to learn in this investment and sometimes I find a document with good information only to later learn what I thought was the case, turned out to either be false, misleading, or had a change in status at a later date.

A lot of what I get is from the Iraqi news like many of you, I myself believe that most of what is printed in the Iraqi news is correct and current information about things like the ministries, budget, ncsp law, distribution of wealth law, Kuwait issues, etc. Iraqi news is also current, some of these reporters post a couple times a day on parliamentary matters, and there are a couple good commentary reporters over there. The news there has proven right more than any guru. I don't buy into any smoke and mirrors when it comes to most subjects except one, and only a little bit is articles from the CBI when it comes to talking about deleting the zeros, increasing the exchange rate, etc. This is the only area I believe smoke and mirrors would be beneficial for them to use in order to keep speculation at a minimum, IMO there is no doubt to me that Selah, the CBI adviser often quoted in articles, is a master of this practice. This man has done an excellent job of confusing everyone as to what the CBI is really doing. And, yes, before someone tells me that some believe that he has no real attachment to the CBI, I believe he is just as the news calls him, an adviser to the CBI and basically the CBI spokesman. He was with Shabbs in December when Shabbs went in front of parliament, and spoke to parliament himself. We know this because it is in the minutes of that meeting.

What I know and share is my interpretation of news and documents. I have no special background that makes me more qualified than anyone else who has done their homework about this investment. I have come to the conclusion that some things we think matter is just speculation that it has an impact, and there may be something we don’t know has an impact. It could be that all of the sudden it is done and things we thought still needed to be done are not. It could also go the other way and all of what we thought mattered is completed, and there is something we don’t know about that still need to be completed.

First off, I believe that the RV will be part of a process and not so much of an event. Personally, I think this process has already begun and at some point in that process will be an event that happens that will lead to what we will call the RV and allow us to cash out.

I will tell you now, that depending on what turns out to matter, not matter, or did not know matters is completed I see a time frame that starts any day after today up to anytime this year. But this is just my opinion

I think there are certain upcoming events that it would seem logical for it to be done by, but there is just to much unknown to say that it will be done for those events.

1st is the upcoming Arab Summit in March - I think this is very questionable as to the importance of Iraq revaluing their currency other than to look good to other nations and for Iraq to try and set an example by showing they are capable of being a member and even a leader in the Arab world.

Obviously turned out not to matter

2nd I think is more important in my opinion and that is the expiration of the DFI immunities in June. It seems only logical that they could easily afford to pay off any outstanding debts if they were to have a currency of value.

There is alot more to the DFI immunities then just outstanding debts, this money is for rebuilding the country. The release of 2.5 billion dollars to Iraq will go a long way toward rebuilding infrastructure and should create a building boom for both the Iraqi citizens and for the oil pipelines. Make no mistake that oil will be the driving power behind the RV, the more that flows, the better.

Now, with the DFI successor in place and the funds released to them, the next step in the process can proceed. IMO this would be where the oil and gas law and the distribution of wealth law (which I have not seen ANYTHING about for a while now, and I am wondering if it was wrapped back into the recent oil and gas draft law, which by the way, the kurds have said was acceptable to them.)This step, is just as important as the kuwait reperations, and for the same reasons. The Iraqis will get paid first. It is their country, thier oil, and their money.

I am also going to add to this is that the lower denoms will be a MUST for the RV, I have tried to post the way I believe the lower denoms must be introduced in a thread about the LOP, but it is a tough subject to understand, much less to try to write about. I think I kept this pretty simple, but thats in my mind. What we are looking for is a combination of the current and lower denoms as I posted in the last part of my post here...(notice that the way I have it, there are 14 denominations)

Understanding the LOP & the ZEROS

REMOVE the Zeros, and the lower denoms we want to see

So what is the answer, how does Iraq introduce lower denominations, change the exchange rate, and make us all rich

Well, there is a middle point between the 2 above theories that makes the most sense to me, and I hope is the plan when it comes to the removal of the zeros

This is what the CBI does

Introduce new lower denomination notes and coins as above in addition to the existing notes

RV the exchange rate from .00085 to 1.0 (simple example)

Remove the larger notes from circulation for use in bank to bank and other large transactions leaving the 50, 250, and possibly the 500 as the largest denominations in circulation.

So, the currency will look take on a new look with more denominations, until the 3 zero notes are removed

100,000 dinar note (I am putting this in, because it is a possibility. if you want to remain at the 14 notes that were printed, then this would be one to many, it it throws a big wrench into my theory, but it would still work if they introduce it for use before RV or if it were a 100 dinar note instead and release with the lower denoms, with plans to remove the 250 and 500 from circulation. This is part of the really confusing issues I spoke of and I dont want to make my book here into a novel today lol)

25,000 dinar note (current in use, removed and destroyed over time, or used for bank to bank and large transaction, but still worth 25,000 dinar)

10,000 dinar note (current in use, removed and destroyed over time, or used for bank to bank and large transaction, but still worth 10,000 dinar)

5,000 dinar note (current in use, removed and destroyed over time, or used for bank to bank and large transaction, but still worth 5,000 dinar)

1,000 dinar note (current in use, removed and destroyed over time, or used for bank to bank and large transaction, but still worth 1,000 dinar)

These next 3 bother be with the current talk of the 100k note, would they be needed?

500 dinar note (could be removed or left in circulation)

250 dinar note (remains in circulation)

50 dinar note (remains in circulation)

These are the denominations that would be added

25 dinar note (new lower denomination)

10 dinar note (new lower denomination)

5 dinar note (new lower denomination)

1 dinar note (new lower denomination)

0.50 (Coins just make sense to me, if they are going to RV and introduce new lower denominations, they will need lower than the 1 dinar note)

0.25

0.05

*I used 25, 10, 5, 1, .50, .25, .05 but the denominations that are introduced could be in any denomination they choose unlike the lop where they must stick with a match to the existing currency.

Notice that this covers all the issues I pointed out above with both the Strait up RV and the LOP since you have the lower coinage and smaller bills along with using the current 50, 250, and possibly the 500 as the larger denominations.

They would have to RV in this scenario, with the 50 dinar not already only worth 4 cents, anything introduced lower would not even be worth toilet paper

Now, this is what we hope to see, it would mean a big return for us and has none of the issues I had pointed out above with the lop and the strait up RV.

These are the areas I believe that they have a direct or indirect impact on the process leading to an RV

1. The GOI formation, including the ministries, heads of parliamentary committees and the ncsp law. Right now this is a mess, and if I were to try and post all of the issues concerning this issue, this post would go from book to encyclopedia. I will put this simply that I believe that the GOI must be completed in order for other parts of the process to advance.

2. The budget I think is questionable as to its impact of the RV directly, but once again is a necessary issue to be completed in order for the process to advance. (Completely done, I believe. However, Robo and I and a few others have discussed in the past that the RV will require some kind of rider or amendment to the budget when the RV occurs to reflect the new rate)

3. The Kuwait issues are also questionable as to the direct impact on the RV, but I think are extremely important due to the fact that Kuwait will not be happy being owed billions in reparations for the invasion of it country if millions of Americans make huge profits off of its currency without being paid themselves first. I think it is possible that Kuwait, and other countries owed debt by Iraq, will get paid off when the IQD's value is set to a starting market rate. (What we will call the RV)

4. HCL law - I believe this has been broken down into smaller laws in order for them to get certain important issues resolved that are addressed by the bigger HCL law that they have been trying to pass. The first of these 2 smaller laws I have read about are the distribution of wealth law and the oil and gas law. This confused me for a while because I thought that the HCL law was the oil and gas law, but one article I read spoke of this breakdown of the HCL law into these smaller laws and calls one of the smaller laws, the oil and gas law. I believe the importance of this lies in the distribution of wealth law because it will specify who gets how much from Iraq’s abundant wealth as oil exports continue to increase. (Discussed above)

5. OIL - Contracts and Export - Recently I read an article about what happened when Kuwait’s revalue occurred. What lead to this happening was Kuwait resuming oil exports after the invasion. I believe this will also be the case with Iraq. With so much of Iraq’s GPD reliant upon oil, it will be in my opinion a major factor in the rate of the IQD increasing to market value. The outstanding contracts signed by the Kurds and deemed illegal by the GOI could be the key to all of this, and could be the event we are looking for to happen in order for the process to advance to RV stage. Iraq is due to double its exports by the end of the year, and the recent testing of lines out of the Kurdish region is a sign that the Kurdish agreement to start exporting again is underway.

6. WTO, not sure how I forgot this before, but it falls into the may or may not matter for the RV and more into the RV must happen before becoming full member, its anybodies guess on who is right about this.

The way I see the RV happening is that at some point the CBI will set the initial rate at a not to low, not to high starting point. If you have not seen it yet, I would read ThePhantomRiders post from today about this, he makes excellent sense of this point. I believe that oil production and export will be of great importance and should be considered a top issue before any increase of the IQD happens. The other issues I mentioned are all part of the process to get the oil flowing so thier importance should not be overlook, but considered as a part of the process.

I am not saying I am right. This is once again, JUST MY OPINION.

I hope all who are involved will take a hard look at what you are doing on a day to day basis and how much time you may be spending watching, waiting, hoping for this investment to come to fruition. This will happen and one day you will be very happy with the outcome, but in the mean time, don't allow yourself to get distracted and caught up in this investment to the point where you start to neglect things that matter now. Keep your job, or find a job, play with your kids, spend time with your spouse, go to church, enjoy life as you did before you became involved with this investment.

Peace be with you all, and God bless.

Read more:

So, I know I have been pretty harsh on people like easy as of late, and my own experience within this investment is the motivation behind it. I have nothing personal against Easy, but I do have issue with being irresponsible with the bs information shared from what others see as a well respected member on the forums. Other members, be they newbie’s, or long timers who are not as good at the research, look to those with a good reputation for guidance, and Easy's reputation can be misleading when he shares this possibly dangerous info without concern for what the consequences may be. Once again, this is JMO

I hope this message finds and hits home, and that you will go out and spend some time with your families today, and enjoy the greatest treasure you already possess.

Happy 4th everyone,

God Bless, and GO RV

Edited July 4, 2011 by RVDinar4MyFamily

[aliciadogz]

JUST DO IT ALREADY!!!!!

[dinarcimi]

RVDinar4MyFamily

Man, a most excellent post. I agree 100%. Everyone should read this, newbie or not. Stay grounded, stay informed and keep your thoughts balanced and in check and educate while you wait.. +1 for the poster. Again nicely said!

Go Iraq! Go RV!

[coldwarvet]

Very informative post, RVDinar. However, I don't agree that easy is being irresponsible with his posts. They are always posted in the appropriate section, and he always issues a disclaimer.

I also don't agree that the Iraqi news media posts are always factual. It is apparent to me that, like their politics, their media is heavily influenced by tribal agendas. I have seen many, many articles posted on this forum that report directly opposing versions of "facts."

However, I DO agree with you that many on this forum, especially the "Newbies," need to relax, take a longer temr view of thsi investment, and not get caught up in the hype.

Thanks for your post. Enjoyable reading.

[greenarrow]

While I am new...I have been reading this board for awhile. I've had my dinar for less than a year. To think that people have ridden the "roller-coaster" for years is amazing to me. I can understand someones' frustrations with bad info, and their frustrations with having their patience tested with so many "it's gonna happen tomorrow!!" posts. This is like waiting for your tax return. You know its coming, you're just not exactly sure when! I got into this with the ides that someday it could help my grandkids go to college. My kids are high school aged, so that (HOPEFULLY!!) will be awhile off. When the RV finally does happen - and heaven knows when - we all need to meet back here for a beer! Hope you're having a great 4th!!

[Jmcc]

Good post. The economy is tough right now. The people you think have money may not. What I call high rollers. Been in business for myself many years and know very well that those you think are well off are just dealing with a different set of zeros in their accounts. Sorry to hear about your situation because I have been there, done that. Yes, this thing will come around. When? Well!!!!!!! Have a way to go I think. Hope not. Would make my life a little better. Don't spend more than you can do without and certainly do not depend on this thing to save your butt.

[cw2]

Great post RVDinar4MyFamily!!!

Very good information and guidance to stay grounded. Please don't spend more than you can lose (or do without for 6 months).

GO RV!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[R Veyron]

+ 1 for your two cents. Thanks.

[DinarDana]

Thank you for the post and personal experience. I appreciate you perspective.