DON'T BE NAIVE... READ AND THINK AND THINK SOME MORE

[Dr. Z]

I received an email this morning from one of the dinarvet senior people informing me that my posting had been pulled because of some immature comments being made in response to what I had written. I was asked to retitle my posting in the hope that that might alleviate some of these comments. I have retitled, corrected spelling, and added some more comments for this reposting.

I am writing in response to the numerous postings that try to find fault with everything. I listen to every conference call and then do my due diligience to find news sources that support the information given in the conference calls. I have also been an investor in dinar long enough to know that patience is not a virtue, it is a requirement if you are going to maintain your sanity. If you think about it, the information regarding the value of the dinar needing to be relevent to the other monies in the region made sense the other night. In our part of the world, the US dollar matches up with the rest of North and South America, with the exception of the Mexican Peso. So it only stands to reason that the Iraqi Dinar should match up with the Kuwait Dinar. Now if you really want to inflate the possibilities of what the Iraqi Dinar might eventually be valued at, factor in the oil resources and other natural resources that are still waiting to be taken out of the Iraqi fields and your imagination will carry you to new heights as to how much your investment will be worth. I don't see how their economy cannot dominate other economies within the next 5 years ust based on the amount of oil their fields contain. They will become the Wal-Mart of oil, if they choose to undercut the price of OPEC and Venezuela. They literaaly can dictate how other economies will increase or decrease, based on their dependency on oil. We all know that all pricing is attached to oil in some way.

Getting back to the RV... It makes sense that Iraq would allow it's neighbors to enjoy the exchange of dinar for other currencies first. This helps them overcome the stigma of Saddam and encourage acceptance by other nations as a new democratic nation, one who wants to make alliances and develop a free economy. From all that I have seen concerning decisions that have been made about the Iraqi budget and contracts their government has entered into with other nations and global businesses, the RV has begun without a formal announcement. That announcement cannot be made until all provisions of their constitution have been publicly met concerning the seating of all of their ministersand the reading of the budget three times before voting on its acceptance.

We are almost on top of Mount Everest. We just have to wait, take a breather, and then attain the summit. Some of us have been on this expedition for almost 7 years. There is no need to worry, we are going to plant our financial flag on the peak one day. When that day is is solely in the hands of the current Iraqi government fulfilling its constitutional obligations. I also think it is going to be with in the next two weeks for the following reasons: 1) Their people are suffering, and if this new government doesn't want to appear to be just as inhumane as their last one, then they will do what is necessary to help the Iraqi people. 2) The IMF and the WTO are not going to continue to wait for the new IRAQI government to get the ducks in a row. Too many other governments are watching their economies struggle and need for the dinar to RV. Their economies might not be struggling had they not written of Iraqi debt in exchange for dinar.

[el Stevo]

I'm with you... Since no one really has any idea when or if it will happen, all we can do is sit back and wait.

It appears that the players are on the field.

Now we have to wait to see if they go for the touchdown or wimp out and kick a field goal.

Personally, I'm hoping for the touchdown, and then I hope they go for two.

[dumbnar]

Great post, I think you are on the money!!!! Go RV

[el Stevo]

Oh crap... I just though of another scenario...

What if they go 3 and out? Crap!

[iceburgpens]

Nice post. Thank you for the thoughts.

[wgb52]

I've read alot and thought alot and I do not share your views at all. There is no relationship between a countries geographical area or even being trading partners and the value of their currency. The United States second largest trading partner is Japan. It takes 83 units of their currency to equal one US dollar. You could also use Saudi Arabia's or Mexico's currency to prove the same.

Also the strength of an economy is only a factor in its value. Although the United States does not have the strongest currency in the world it does have the largest economy. Canada which has the second largest oil reserves in the world, strong mineral resources and a healthier economy than the US is still valued less than the US dollar. Saudi Arabia with the most oil production in the world has a very low valued currency. The number ONE factor in the value of a currency is determined by the quantity in circulation.

15 years of currency trading and a background in economics and banking have led me to believe currencies are valued very much in the short term time frame. Currencies are not currently valued out to a guesstimate of an economy 5 years away. Unfortunately, there are just too many variables to make any accurate predictions.

You also have a tradeable currency or not. If it trades, it will trade everywhere. When the RV is announced it will be world wide in seconds.

Please do not call this bashing. This is productive criticism. The reason many criticize the conference call rumors is that most of the time there is no factual basis for the info. If you want to believe something it is pretty easy to make a supporting argument. I hold alot of dinar and believe in the investment and I THINK about it ALOT!

[dinnie]

I've read alot and thought alot and I do not share your views at all. There is no relationship between a countries geographical area or even being trading partners and the value of their currency. The United States second largest trading partner is Japan. It takes 83 units of their currency to equal one US dollar. You could also use Saudi Arabia's or Mexico's currency to prove the same.

Also the strength of an economy is only a factor in its value. Although the United States does not have the strongest currency in the world it does have the largest economy. Canada which has the second largest oil reserves in the world, strong mineral resources and a healthier economy than the US is still valued less than the US dollar. Saudi Arabia with the most oil production in the world has a very low valued currency. The number ONE factor in the value of a currency is determined by the quantity in circulation.

15 years of currency trading and a background in economics and banking have led me to believe currencies are valued very much in the short term time frame. Currencies are not currently valued out to a guesstimate of an economy 5 years away. Unfortunately, there are just too many variables to make any accurate predictions.

You also have a tradeable currency or not. If it trades, it will trade everywhere. When the RV is announced it will be world wide in seconds.

Please do not call this bashing. This is productive criticism. The reason many criticize the conference call rumors is that most of the time there is no factual basis for the info. If you want to believe something it is pretty easy to make a supporting argument. I hold alot of dinar and believe in the investment and I THINK about it ALOT!

Good Post! Well thought out.

[dumbnar]

Saudi Arabia is like china, they set their own value. If the Royal family wants more money they raise the value.

Thanks

Dumbnar

Edited January 18, 2011 by dumbnar

[Short6]

I Agree, I have been in this investment for three years now. It appears that June ( the last Monetary restriction on Iraq will be lifted) is the next important action to be taken. Go RV!! I would like it to RV sooner, but it appears that Iraq wants complete control over their Government 's finances before they RV! Just an observation.

[txsrooster]

So what happens if there is no RV no LOP just a reinstatement as a trade-able currency? The IQD hits FOREX at 1170...then what?

[sneakey]

I think it's great that the Mods gave you another shot at this post AND that you took advantage of it.

I don't believe the IMF ot the WTO can do anything other than approve or disapprove of the rate once it's done.

There is no law that states that Iraq must RV within a certain time frame so there is nothing to enforce.

The opinions of these organizations mean about as much to Iraq as the opinions expressed on this forum. IMO

[wgb52]

Saudi Arabia is like china, they set their own value. If the Royal family wants more money they raise the value.

Thanks

Dumbnar

Even pegged currencies have to reflect the true "value" or there will be pressure/sanctions to force a revalue. This is now happening to China as their currency is undervalued giving trade advantages. Even though Saddam declared the Iraqi dollar at one time to be worth $3.22, nobody outside Iraq ever honored this rate. The rate has to approxiamate true value.

[MovieMaker]

What a great post, and very good replies. GOOD THREAD.