What is likely to happen

[RichNick123]

Iraq absolutely has to get the float of their total outstanding currency down to 25 billion Dinar.

Currently there are 25 trillion in circulation. Rumors abound but no proof of any being taken off the market.

A realistic amount of value based on fractional banking would mean Iraq would have around 85 billion dollars of value in their Dinar. This is the equalivent of Kuwait. Iraq currently has 21.5 billion which is unreasonably low!

In order for this to happen they have statred they will drop the 3 zeros. Unfortunately they have not described exactly how this will happen.

Some believe it is removing the 3 zeros in front of the rate making it .86. If this was done with 25 trillion dinar floating it would mean a valuation of 21.5 trillion dollars. This is an unrealistic number to even consider. The US, prior to the FED printing an undeclared amount, had only 1.3 trillion in circulaton.

The only way I can rationalize this working is to give time period to exchangethe bills with the 3 zeros 1000 and above, for a 1000 to one exchange. At the same time revalue the Dinar to an amount determined by fractional reserve principles. Using the realistic 85 billion number of kuwait would value the dinar at the kuwait rate of around 3,55.

For those holding 1 million in Dinar this would mean You would hold 1000 dinar at a valuation of 3,550.00. You would triple your investment.

have heard all of the arguments for and against this. I pray I am wrong and just am totally overlooking something. The only thing I can think is they may use a number much higher than the 85 billion. They must however get to 25 billion dinar in their float.

[fatbob]

I've had the same thoughts many times. I really think this is the way it's going to turn out.

[RichNick123]

I've had the same thoughts many times. I really think this is the way it's going to turn out.

Yeah but let's hope tis guy is right! He is working off the fact that the staement made that 70% have been removed from circulation. If so then his number is MUCH BETTER!

Enoch8 Commentary:

Putting the new figures together.

Part I

Even the most hard core lopster out there, could not make a legitimate argument, that .000865 is not based on only 50% of the $43 Billion Reserves claimed previously. ($43 Billion divided by 27 Trillion in circulation, are the earlier publications from both CBI and the IMF is using only about 50% of the value of the reserves to support the Program, Defacto Rate, $.000865. The REER, (Real Estimated Exchange Rate) in IMF Public Information Notice published Feb 10, 2010, reflects 292 vs 1170, which is the DeJure Rate, mentioned also by the IMF, stating that Iraq is using a Defacto Conventional Peg, and has a 2 rate system. The REER as of Dec 2009 shown by the IMF is $.00342, about 200% of the Reserves, that were at that time, $43 Billion.

Earlier this year, in March, we talked about the fact that the 2010 budget, approved was based on $62.50 Oil. Now that increase is hitting the books. This year, they are planning a 2011 Budget based on $70 Oil, that is expected to be well over $100 per barrel in 2011. So, here we go again.

$50 Billion, In Reserves, will increase even the Program Defacto Rate, at 50%, even in the worst nightmarish argument the most hard core lopster could make, not including removal of much of the 27 Trillion, and even without the additional investments into Iraq, as this article suggests….. and not including doubling the economy….. you can figure the REER to be at the worst possible scenario…… on the world exchange, to be revised to 250 % of the Reserve for the REER Value, because Iraq last month was decreased from 25% Fractional Reserve, in lending requirements, to 20%.

So….. here is how that information figures…… plan on about double, that Reserve, at the point of an RV, to a minimum of $100 Billion, based on the projections of doubling the economy,,,(Which is under estimating it by 10 times, in my opinion…), but go with that. 20% Fractional Reserve Requirement means you can multiply that by 5 times, to an estimated $500 Billion as the basis for the REER of the same 27 Trillion.

$500 Billion divided by 27 Trillion IQD = $.0185….. which is almost 2 cents…. even without removal of zeros. Seems like we have been here before, haven’t we? LOL

Stay with me here. I am nowhere near done running this.

OK….. CBI has stated all year long, they plan on removal of the large bills from circulation. They have stated they have only about $7 Trillion in the combined Stock and Quazi Stock….. the M2.

That means that about 70% of the zeros are already removed, because they are now in the reserves of other countries and supported by the investments of those countries an converted into Oil, Gold, Natural Gas, Banking Programs and numerous other investments into Iraq, further increasing their Reserves and Increasing the Value of the remaining M2.

Here is the preliminary math, before any further removal of IQD, which does not yet include, adding the 5 items listed by the IMF, in page 31 of the most recent addendum to Article XIV SBA, that Non Convertible Currency, Non Mint Precious Metals, Non Liquid assets, IE OIL and Natural Gas,,,, etc, etc, Lending Interest, OFAC Blocked Accounts and Frozen Assets, etc, etc……

Part II

Take the same $500 Billion figure we just did in part I, and use the last reported M2…. to get a new figure for the REER that would likely be the IMF Art. VIII rate.

$500 Billion divided by 7 Trillion IQD, is just over 7 cents, $.0714 and we still have not removed any more zeros than what is already removed. Remember…. 70% have already been removed.

I do not usually endorse F26, but he is partly right about that, just in a different way of saying it.

Now…. We are not yet done.

Once the IMF places Iraq and CBI back into Article VIII, meaning they have a Convertible Currency, there are estimates all over the ball park, as to how much that is figured in the amount remaining of OFAC Frozen and Blocked assets and Saddam Money and Gold, after the Paris Club is settled with BIS who is the overseer of the settlements with Raafadin and Ramadi along with the other debts, in UN Chap VII. Those figures will add several Hundred Billion to those Reserves, after the debt settlements. Also, the Non Mint Prcious Metals would get added to these figures.

Also, however much IQD, the CBI holds in Reserves, will then be convertible and added to that amount. That is several Trillion worth in Dollars value. Currently under Art. XIV SBA they are not allowed to include IQD in the Reserves, because it is not convertible, YET. LOL How funny is that!!!

Also….. you could add other futures, treasuries and lending assets to this Reserves amount under Art VIII that are not allowed to be used under Art. XIV agreements.

I have no earthly idea, what exactly these amounts might be, but have figured all year, that these Reserves would support just over $1.00 maybe a significant amount more, and without any further removal of IQD, that is not replaced immediately, by the smaller bills.

This is in now way a prediction of $1.13….. but is it not true, the Ministry of Planning told us that as a model number 4 years ago? Well that 3 year projection has been over for over a year. Who knows for sure, where that will come out at now? Anything else is unsubstantiated and is 100% speculation. I think we can almost prove conclusively, it is over a Dollar…. sorry but I could not prove any more than that. But I also cannot disprove it either.

Do you see it?

They can cover just over a dollar right now and the zeros are already removed!

Get it ? ~ How cool is this?

LINK TO ARTICLE

[Loingsign]

REALLY GOOD INFO RICHNICK!!!! You've really done your homework and I certainly appreciate it. Helps me understand a bit better. And makes me feel better about the RV. I'd still be tickled pink if it came in at 0.85

[spok1]

at this point i will take a lot less than .85

[BobW]

Hey Nick

Let's all hope Enoch8 is correct. He lost me when he went from $0.07 to $1.13.

What I have a hard time wrapping my brain around is the practical applications of an RV without a lop. A redenomination would have to be carried throughout their whole system. For example lets just take a middle class Iraqui (and I'm just guessing on the numbers here for discussion sake) who has about $20,000 worth of assets (20 MILLION DINARS). That would be in money in the bank, money in his pocket and equity in possessions. If he had $18,000 worth in the bank (18 MILLION DINARS), in a redenomination I assume they would just tell him he only had 18,000 Dinars in his account. If he was paying for or owned outright a home that was valued at $50,000 (50 MILLION DINARS) then they would have to legally inform him his house was only worth 50,000 Dinars and change any and all legal paperwork and tax structures. This type of redenomination would carry through everything; car payment, salaries, utility bills, loan payments etc. Not saying it can't be done just saying as much as those people distrust each other and like to fight, the arguments over the fine print would last generations.

Taking the big bills out would be the easy part. Just give a time period for exchange, period. Then start distributing the lower denominations they have waiting (supposedly).

But an RV at $1.13 without a redenomination would make that same middle class to poor Iraqui a multi-millionaire. I'm talking in US Dollars worth. His 18 MILLION Dinars in his bank account alone would give him a net worth of $20 MILLION US DOLLARS in real world value. He would be able to go from scraping along to buying armored Mercedes Benz's and hiring private security from Blackwater and most of his neighbors would too! I certainly wouldn't begrudge anyone that, but it seems unrealistic and undoable.

The only problem I have with a low RV rate, say $0.07 to $0.27 is the pride of the Iraqui and knowing that they were so much lower than their neighbor Kuwait. Even at the rate mentioned above of $1.13 they would be 1/3 as much as Kuwait. I haven't seen much discussion on the possibility of an "interim" rate for pulling the larger bills in with no redenomination and then a higher rate later.

As much as I hate it, a redenomination and revaluation to $3.50 would seem like the easiest way for them. They don't create 1,000's and 1,000's of real world value multi-millionaires and they can satisfy their pride by being comparable to Kuwait.

We're all guessing and much better odds than a lottery ticket on a fantastic payoff.

[Guest E*Trade Baby]

We're all guessing and much better odds than a lottery ticket on a fantastic payoff.

compared to an RV...you have a better chance of being mauled by a polar bear AND a regular bear... on the same day...

[gatoraces]

it just seems this is the most logical occurrence. while i would, of course, hope for millions, thousands is more probable. unless someone can explain why it isn't.

[Guest DrDinar]

Yeah but let's hope tis guy is right! He is working off the fact that the staement made that 70% have been removed from circulation. If so then his number is MUCH BETTER!

Enoch8 Commentary:

Putting the new figures together.

Part I

Even the most hard core lopster out there, could not make a legitimate argument, that .000865 is not based on only 50% of the $43 Billion Reserves claimed previously. ($43 Billion divided by 27 Trillion in circulation, are the earlier publications from both CBI and the IMF is using only about 50% of the value of the reserves to support the Program, Defacto Rate, $.000865. The REER, (Real Estimated Exchange Rate) in IMF Public Information Notice published Feb 10, 2010, reflects 292 vs 1170, which is the DeJure Rate, mentioned also by the IMF, stating that Iraq is using a Defacto Conventional Peg, and has a 2 rate system. The REER as of Dec 2009 shown by the IMF is $.00342, about 200% of the Reserves, that were at that time, $43 Billion.

Earlier this year, in March, we talked about the fact that the 2010 budget, approved was based on $62.50 Oil. Now that increase is hitting the books. This year, they are planning a 2011 Budget based on $70 Oil, that is expected to be well over $100 per barrel in 2011. So, here we go again.

$50 Billion, In Reserves, will increase even the Program Defacto Rate, at 50%, even in the worst nightmarish argument the most hard core lopster could make, not including removal of much of the 27 Trillion, and even without the additional investments into Iraq, as this article suggests….. and not including doubling the economy….. you can figure the REER to be at the worst possible scenario…… on the world exchange, to be revised to 250 % of the Reserve for the REER Value, because Iraq last month was decreased from 25% Fractional Reserve, in lending requirements, to 20%.

So….. here is how that information figures…… plan on about double, that Reserve, at the point of an RV, to a minimum of $100 Billion, based on the projections of doubling the economy,,,(Which is under estimating it by 10 times, in my opinion…), but go with that. 20% Fractional Reserve Requirement means you can multiply that by 5 times, to an estimated $500 Billion as the basis for the REER of the same 27 Trillion.

$500 Billion divided by 27 Trillion IQD = $.0185….. which is almost 2 cents…. even without removal of zeros. Seems like we have been here before, haven’t we? LOL

Stay with me here. I am nowhere near done running this.

OK….. CBI has stated all year long, they plan on removal of the large bills from circulation. They have stated they have only about $7 Trillion in the combined Stock and Quazi Stock….. the M2.

That means that about 70% of the zeros are already removed, because they are now in the reserves of other countries and supported by the investments of those countries an converted into Oil, Gold, Natural Gas, Banking Programs and numerous other investments into Iraq, further increasing their Reserves and Increasing the Value of the remaining M2.

Here is the preliminary math, before any further removal of IQD, which does not yet include, adding the 5 items listed by the IMF, in page 31 of the most recent addendum to Article XIV SBA, that Non Convertible Currency, Non Mint Precious Metals, Non Liquid assets, IE OIL and Natural Gas,,,, etc, etc, Lending Interest, OFAC Blocked Accounts and Frozen Assets, etc, etc……

Part II

Take the same $500 Billion figure we just did in part I, and use the last reported M2…. to get a new figure for the REER that would likely be the IMF Art. VIII rate.

$500 Billion divided by 7 Trillion IQD, is just over 7 cents, $.0714 and we still have not removed any more zeros than what is already removed. Remember…. 70% have already been removed.

I do not usually endorse F26, but he is partly right about that, just in a different way of saying it.

Now…. We are not yet done.

Once the IMF places Iraq and CBI back into Article VIII, meaning they have a Convertible Currency, there are estimates all over the ball park, as to how much that is figured in the amount remaining of OFAC Frozen and Blocked assets and Saddam Money and Gold, after the Paris Club is settled with BIS who is the overseer of the settlements with Raafadin and Ramadi along with the other debts, in UN Chap VII. Those figures will add several Hundred Billion to those Reserves, after the debt settlements. Also, the Non Mint Prcious Metals would get added to these figures.

Also, however much IQD, the CBI holds in Reserves, will then be convertible and added to that amount. That is several Trillion worth in Dollars value. Currently under Art. XIV SBA they are not allowed to include IQD in the Reserves, because it is not convertible, YET. LOL How funny is that!!!

Also….. you could add other futures, treasuries and lending assets to this Reserves amount under Art VIII that are not allowed to be used under Art. XIV agreements.

I have no earthly idea, what exactly these amounts might be, but have figured all year, that these Reserves would support just over $1.00 maybe a significant amount more, and without any further removal of IQD, that is not replaced immediately, by the smaller bills.

This is in now way a prediction of $1.13….. but is it not true, the Ministry of Planning told us that as a model number 4 years ago? Well that 3 year projection has been over for over a year. Who knows for sure, where that will come out at now? Anything else is unsubstantiated and is 100% speculation. I think we can almost prove conclusively, it is over a Dollar…. sorry but I could not prove any more than that. But I also cannot disprove it either.

Do you see it?

They can cover just over a dollar right now and the zeros are already removed!

Get it ? ~ How cool is this?

LINK TO ARTICLE

When?

[nashdinar]

Iraq absolutely has to get the float of their total outstanding currency down to 25 billion Dinar.

Currently there are 25 trillion in circulation. Rumors abound but no proof of any being taken off the market.

A realistic amount of value based on fractional banking would mean Iraq would have around 85 billion dollars of value in their Dinar. This is the equalivent of Kuwait. Iraq currently has 21.5 billion which is unreasonably low!

In order for this to happen they have statred they will drop the 3 zeros. Unfortunately they have not described exactly how this will happen.

Some believe it is removing the 3 zeros in front of the rate making it .86. If this was done with 25 trillion dinar floating it would mean a valuation of 21.5 trillion dollars. This is an unrealistic number to even consider. The US, prior to the FED printing an undeclared amount, had only 1.3 trillion in circulaton.

The only way I can rationalize this working is to give time period to exchangethe bills with the 3 zeros 1000 and above, for a 1000 to one exchange. At the same time revalue the Dinar to an amount determined by fractional reserve principles. Using the realistic 85 billion number of kuwait would value the dinar at the kuwait rate of around 3,55.

For those holding 1 million in Dinar this would mean You would hold 1000 dinar at a valuation of 3,550.00. You would triple your investment.

have heard all of the arguments for and against this. I pray I am wrong and just am totally overlooking something. The only thing I can think is they may use a number much higher than the 85 billion. They must however get to 25 billion dinar in their float.

Anything is possible. In my gut, I feel that this may be exactly what happens(lop). I hope and pray to be a millionaire. You know the old saying "If it sounds to good to be true..It usually is."

[Mikecren]

Is there a "middle class" in Iraq tha has bank accounts and assets?

[War Eagle]

There is NO middle class in Iraq!!!!This is the problem,not only in Iraq but a lot of countries.You have the wealthy-most live in the Green Zone,or out of the country (Jordan)-Allawi's family lives in London-and NOBODY is looking out for the people!!! If your lop,and reval where you have a 3 times return on your investment---the poor people of Iraq will see their currency go from .0008547 to .002564---Now,I ask you---Is this REALLY going to help the average Iraqi?????

[frankc]

Unfortunately the old adage "If it sounds too good to be true it usually is" is usually correct. I'd love to be a millionaire but.........

I hope this surprises me.