Drox post: A different perspective on the RV being imminent

[syzygy]

Hey everybody. I haven't posted a topic in quite awhile. I have been sitting back not wanting to be a buzz kill to be honest. I have been around awhile and my research has taken me in circles as I couple it with the crazy hype versus common sense. My enthusiasm for the investment is still great but I see the investment from a much more level headed view these days which is where I started in the first place. My take is constantly evolving as new information emerges upon the backdrop of the known history of the awakening of Iraq and the Dinar. I tend to filter the mumbo jumbo as much as possible.

I have always tried to provoke thought and discussion as I will do here. I encourage your intelligent responses to also help further my education on the investment as well as others. It is okay for you to disagree with me and I won't call you out publicly by name like I have seen others inappropriately do because our opinions simply are different. It is also unnecessary to throw red rocks although it is your right to do so. The truth is you don't need any of the Guru's predictions. When one of them suggests "It is a fact" I usually suspect it is anything but a fact, but hearsay and best guess. When they say things so defiantly and matter-of-fact I feel they are doing a disservice to all of you. I find it irresponsible to not identify it as a best guess up front. I see the comments of the folks that hang on every word as gospel as if they are in-the-know. Please politely ask for them to be accountable for the words. I am referring to all sites of course.

The new self appointed gurus at DV are no different. I love their enthusiasm and work to help solve this Rubik's cube. I encourage more of their input but would kindly ask them to provide more proof from their arguments instead of the unsubstantiated notions. You are not given trust you earn it. God fearing or not. Case in point:

1. "The HCL and the Fils allegedly were voted on and approved a few days ago". This was repeatedly stated as a "fact"! 2 days later an article came out debunking that they haven't voted on the HCL yet. When pressed for proof on either item...none was given.

2. "Chapter 7 has been approved except for 2 things... the revaluation of the currency and the Oil for Food Program". Was stated as a "fact". What happened to the oil metering systems that were only 50% complete? Although Kuwait has shown a willingness to work with Iraq many of these issues are still very much hindering Chapter 7 release. I do not discount that the Chapter 7 can be modified but it has not been approved from anything I have read or seen. What about the IMF imploring Iraq to reconcile their remaining debts? What about the outstanding creditor issues not covered in the DFI or the Paris Club agreements? The remaining weapons issues? Amongst others.

3. The comment that the Dinar has to equal $1 and is written into the budget. I haven't seen this anywhere stated as a "fact". I honestly can't remember if they said the budget or the UN or IMF had it in writing. Please provide this information. People are hanging on your words.

4. International Companies are electing to be paid in Dinar. What? My problem with this statement is a corporation would be foolish to be paid in Dinar when it isn't even internationally recognized yet. Corporations don't usually gamble with shareholders money. If it were to be recognized then I would tend to agree it could be an option.

From and Investment Liaison of a major international corporation that I emailed regarding risk of working with a currency that is not internationally recognized:

"Believe me, we take a very careful look at the risk associated with any potential job before we pursue it. Jobs like this are typically done on a reimbursable basis, meaning that they bill the client monthly for the number of man-hours that have been devoted to the project. As a general rule, reimbursable contracts carry a reasonably low risk as compared to lump-sum/fixed-price contracts."

and one more international corporate employee working in procurement... "It is common to always have the country pay in the contractor's own country currency. It is something called currency risk and helps to avoid substantial currency fluctuations in their currency. Obviously it goes the other way too. That country may not want to pay a premium if it goes up too much. Sometimes they work out agreements that if it goes up more than 10% or so that adjustments will be made. It is also entirely possible that a corporation may see opportunity in the host country's currency and will elect to be paid in it sometimes too. Free money", he says.

5. The RV is upon us. Usually stated within 30 days or less. So are we to believe that the currency will revalue, the HCL and Fils are to be voted on, the Ch. 7 sanctions will be lifted, the World Trade Organization will open its doors, the 2010 and 2011 budgets will be voted on, the DFI arrangement will be completed (ahead of the Dec 31st deadline), the entire government will be seated and approved (before their 30 day window), The ISX will be functioning on an International basis, and the IMF will formally announce it's recognition internationally of the Dinar? Not to mention the ENORMOUS security issues that must be taken into account for the chaos that will ensue between the have's and the have not's in-country. Remember... most Iraqi's don't have any savings.

Let me ask you this. If the Dinar revalues to $3 in the coming days as many suggest, how are you going to get your money without it being an internationally recognized currency? Are you going to Iraq to cash out? Do you think that your local bank is going to give you $15 million for your 5 million Dinar and trust that it will eventually be recognized? Do you think Ali from Dinar Trade has it sitting in an account? Do you think the US government (and it's $13 Trillion debt) is going to back it up until it does? It is essentially the equivalent of Monopoly money to the banks if it is not internationally recognized. Shabibi shifting the value does not make it automatically traded worldwide. If the world has economic sanctions on your country then your currency is pretty much only good in your country. It is worthless outside of it except to speculators like us. See Iran.

Chapter 7 release or a modified version sure seems like a logical lynch pin to me to get this ball rolling. The seating of a fully represented government was the start. These items will begin to happen one by one. I find it strange it all must happen so rapidly when it took them 10 months to form their government. Remember the elections were supposed to be in January not March. I do find the consecutive zero cash day auctions interesting. Clearly a policy shift is occurring. It would not surprise me if we saw a slight adjustment to the Dinar similar to when it went from 1400 progressively down to 1170 while they wait for Ch. 7 release. Iraqi economists have long proposed such a move to help the local's purchasing power.

Hey everybody. I haven't posted a topic in quite awhile. I have been sitting back not wanting to be a buzz kill to be honest. I have been around awhile and my research has taken me in circles as I couple it with the crazy hype versus common sense. My enthusiasm for the investment is still great but I see the investment from a much more level headed view these days which is where I started in the first place. My take is constantly evolving as new information emerges upon the backdrop of the known history of the awakening of Iraq and the Dinar. I tend to filter the mumbo jumbo as much as possible.

I have always tried to provoke thought and discussion as I will do here. I encourage your intelligent responses to also help further my education on the investment as well as others. It is okay for you to disagree with me and I won't call you out publicly by name like I have seen others inappropriately do because our opinions simply are different. It is also unnecessary to throw red rocks although it is your right to do so. The truth is you don't need any of the Guru's predictions. When one of them suggests "It is a fact" I usually suspect it is anything but a fact, but hearsay and best guess. When they say things so defiantly and matter-of-fact I feel they are doing a disservice to all of you. I find it irresponsible to not identify it as a best guess up front. I see the comments of the folks that hang on every word as gospel as if they are in-the-know. Please politely ask for them to be accountable for the words. I am referring to all sites of course.

The new self appointed gurus at DV are no different. I love their enthusiasm and work to help solve this Rubik's cube. I encourage more of their input but would kindly ask them to provide more proof from their arguments instead of the unsubstantiated notions. You are not given trust you earn it. God fearing or not. Case in point:

1. "The HCL and the Fils allegedly were voted on and approved a few days ago". This was repeatedly stated as a "fact"! 2 days later an article came out debunking that they haven't voted on the HCL yet. When pressed for proof on either item...none was given.

2. "Chapter 7 has been approved except for 2 things... the revaluation of the currency and the Oil for Food Program". Was stated as a "fact". What happened to the oil metering systems that were only 50% complete? Although Kuwait has shown a willingness to work with Iraq many of these issues are still very much hindering Chapter 7 release. I do not discount that the Chapter 7 can be modified but it has not been approved from anything I have read or seen. What about the IMF imploring Iraq to reconcile their remaining debts? What about the outstanding creditor issues not covered in the DFI or the Paris Club agreements? The remaining weapons issues? Amongst others.

3. The comment that the Dinar has to equal $1 and is written into the budget. I haven't seen this anywhere stated as a "fact". I honestly can't remember if they said the budget or the UN or IMF had it in writing. Please provide this information. People are hanging on your words.

4. International Companies are electing to be paid in Dinar. What? My problem with this statement is a corporation would be foolish to be paid in Dinar when it isn't even internationally recognized yet. Corporations don't usually gamble with shareholders money. If it were to be recognized then I would tend to agree it could be an option.

From and Investment Liaison of a major international corporation that I emailed regarding risk of working with a currency that is not internationally recognized:

"Believe me, we take a very careful look at the risk associated with any potential job before we pursue it. Jobs like this are typically done on a reimbursable basis, meaning that they bill the client monthly for the number of man-hours that have been devoted to the project. As a general rule, reimbursable contracts carry a reasonably low risk as compared to lump-sum/fixed-price contracts."

and one more international corporate employee working in procurement... "It is common to always have the country pay in the contractor's own country currency. It is something called currency risk and helps to avoid substantial currency fluctuations in their currency. Obviously it goes the other way too. That country may not want to pay a premium if it goes up too much. Sometimes they work out agreements that if it goes up more than 10% or so that adjustments will be made. It is also entirely possible that a corporation may see opportunity in the host country's currency and will elect to be paid in it sometimes too. Free money", he says.

5. The RV is upon us. Usually stated within 30 days or less. So are we to believe that the currency will revalue, the HCL and Fils are to be voted on, the Ch. 7 sanctions will be lifted, the World Trade Organization will open its doors, the 2010 and 2011 budgets will be voted on, the DFI arrangement will be completed (ahead of the Dec 31st deadline), the entire government will be seated and approved (before their 30 day window), The ISX will be functioning on an International basis, and the IMF will formally announce it's recognition internationally of the Dinar? Not to mention the ENORMOUS security issues that must be taken into account for the chaos that will ensue between the have's and the have not's in-country. Remember... most Iraqi's don't have any savings.

Let me ask you this. If the Dinar revalues to $3 in the coming days as many suggest, how are you going to get your money without it being an internationally recognized currency? Are you going to Iraq to cash out? Do you think that your local bank is going to give you $15 million for your 5 million Dinar and trust that it will eventually be recognized? Do you think Ali from Dinar Trade has it sitting in an account? Do you think the US government (and it's $13 Trillion debt) is going to back it up until it does? It is essentially the equivalent of Monopoly money to the banks if it is not internationally recognized. Shabibi shifting the value does not make it automatically traded worldwide. If the world has economic sanctions on your country then your currency is pretty much only good in your country. It is worthless outside of it except to speculators like us. See Iran.

Chapter 7 release or a modified version sure seems like a logical lynch pin to me to get this ball rolling. The seating of a fully represented government was the start. These items will begin to happen one by one. I find it strange it all must happen so rapidly when it took them 10 months to form their government. Remember the elections were supposed to be in January not March. I do find the consecutive zero cash day auctions interesting. Clearly a policy shift is occurring. It would not surprise me if we saw a slight adjustment to the Dinar similar to when it went from 1400 progressively down to 1170 while they wait for Ch. 7 release. Iraqi economists have long proposed such a move to help the local's purchasing power.

sorrry...drox post is from here (DV)...people on other sites are posting it...mods can remove this thread....thanks

[fenix]

so many people have answered your question about how it would be able to support an RV not necessarily $3 but if your trying to prove a particular person wrong why don't you PM them about their info, and maybe you will get the answer you are looking for maybe? and this is not a different perspective just so you know.

[Scrappydoo]

I hear you, but isn't the USD a fiat currency. I think that's funny money too.

[ktlamm]

Thanks for the post. Its more good news for the fire. I do think chapter 2 of your book is worth looking into..Thanks

[rocketman2010]

hey drox love your post for some people the truth hurts, they just can't handle it. God Bless and stay strong. YOU BIG DUMMY!

[J.C.]

Outstanding talking points. So, is it your position that:

A. The RV is still a long ways off?

B. The RV will only be a few pennies at best?

C. The guru's are full of hot air?

There was a published report, which I'm sure is still on DV, that talked about a time line for continued funding for Iraq by the IMF, which talked about "IF" the Chapter 7 and RV wasn't complete by XYZ date, then funding would be pulled.

What about the obvious signs of progress, the contracts waiting to be signed and approved based upon a re-valued currency?

I appreciate the time you put into this, and am sure it will generate some spirited debate.

God bless!