Lurking Makes My Brain Hurt

[ShaneD]

Ok, so I'm going to try and consolidate what I've been learning over the past couple days here:

1) A LOP is most likely not in the works in the strictest sense because;

A) The conditions in Iraq aren't right for it to occur (i.e. no hyperinflation)

B ) It would destroy the Iraqi internal economy

C) It would crush international confidence which they are desperately trying to build

D) It would have serious negative effects on the economies of the US and other nations that heavily invested in it

2) Realistic revaluations appear to be between ~$0.80 and ~$1.20 with original intent to revaluate at $1.00. (probable)

3) Unrealistic reinstatements of ~$3.20 are proposed due to historic pre-Sadaam era exchange rates (possible)

4) Losses on profits are likely ~50% between the fees, the spread and taxes

5) Possible problems with RV cash-ins:

A) Cash-ins may be allowed only in country

B ) 1:1 trade in for new currency in country, LOP externally (25,000IQD=1000x25IQD in country, 25,000IQD=~25IQD externally)

C) Large denomination trade in given limited time limit for exchange

D) A combination as happened in Kuwait

E) Local banks won't handle the exchange forcing us to find exchange locations either regionally or with brokers

6) Exit strategies:

A) Take your money and run

B ) Hold out for higher exchange rate

7) What this means to me:

A) Worst case, I loose a couple hundred I spent 6 years ago that I forgot about

B ) Less than 1:1, I max out my IRA and the kids college funds for the year

C) 1:1 I pay my house off

D) The one that makes me want to slit all your throats, Margaritaville

Questions:

What makes you think you haven't lost it all? My buddy was screwed in Kuwait, his dad in Korea, my grandfather in Germany, all due to post war currency speculation.

Why the distrust of cashing in at the local bank and letting them handle the processing? Why the insistence on being there for verification?

Does anyone have any hard facts on Vegas? It seems to me the big casinos would all have the ability to check.

Is there a consolidated list of guaranteed exchange locations by region?

Anything else?

[BANE]

What do you mean by your friend, and relatives were screwed with their investments in post war currencies? I thought Kuwait HAD RVd....

[nodak]

Shane,

I don't know if you were wanting this, but I called the Mirage myself and talked to the foreign exchange guy and he said they don't exchange any middle eastern currency but will do canadian and mexican.

[ShaneD]

My understanding was the RVs happened in such a way, initial currency that was then converted by the gov and placed under restrictions for the exchange, that only the pros made money off it. All the regular GIs that dumped USD into the local post/war economy lost it because they weren't capable of conforming to those restrictions. I couldn't tell you any details other than, "Yeah, you got suckered like we did."

It could be all in market timing. You guys are watching this thing pretty closely. I have a feeling by the time I reach your level of attentiveness it may be all over. Back then it was much harder to track. Kuwait happened under the radar and Germany devalued and took years to make money.

What makes my stomach turn is the possibility that the RV goes 1:3.20 but the exchange can only happen in Iraq for a specified time at certain locations. That math will make me want to stab myself in the nuts.

What do you mean by your friend, and relatives were screwed with their investments in post war currencies? I thought Kuwait HAD RVd....

There's a thread on that here somewhere. My takeaway was; Kuwait didn't officially devalue, consumer confidence was lost. It reinstated with a new printing after the war.

Shane,

I don't know if you were wanting this, but I called the Mirage myself and talked to the foreign exchange guy and he said they don't exchange any middle eastern currency but will do canadian and mexican.

Strange, I wonder; what do Saudi's show up with?

[nodak]

Ummmm I will go with US dollars? Being that they wouldn't get McCheeseburger with a dinar note. Not trying to be a funny guy, but I assume they would have their finances set before arrival.

Edited October 26, 2010 by nodak

[ShaneD]

Ummmm I will go with US dollars? Being that they wouldn't get McCheeseburger with a dinar note. Not trying to be a funny guy, but I assume they would have their finances set before arrival.

Makes sense. I just kindof assumed the major casinos would be able to handle large currency exchanges.

[jennowens98]

ShaneD I have had simular thoughts. When the dinar is a traded currency on the world market, U.S. banks that trade foreign currency will take the Dinar if they want to make money. When it revalues I also believe it will be more like 3:1 because if it was 1:1 or less alot investors will buy dinars knowing its going to go up. Iraq has then natural resources to support the higher RV now. Not to mention the U.S. needs this RV! Our country has robbed Peter to pay Paul long enough and its time to pay the piper. "China" As far as the Kuwait and German currency goes, look at where we are now. The internet and speed of news is so fast now that we can keep up with whats going in the world. I feel the Iraq Dinar is a different situation. But what do I know .I'm young and new at this, just leave it in Gods hands.

[bluejay]

In regaurd to Kuwait, At that point in time it was not deemed legal to buy the currency, This may be the first ime in history that it has been deemed legal. That's my best educated guess, Who Knows, we shall see, if it's been all a dream, so be it. I have blown more money on stupider things. I'll live. NOTHING RISKED NOTHING GAINED.