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Showing results for tags 'opinion peice'.
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Possible Revaluation of the Iraqi Dinar? . 4th November 2022 in Investment, Iraq Banking & Finance News, Iraq Industry & Trade News, Politics By John Lee. Possible Revaluation of the Iraqi Dinar? | Iraq Business News (iraq-businessnews.com) Iraqi Prime Minister has reportedly told a press conference that his government intends to increase the value of the Iraqi dinar (IQD) against the US dollar. Kurdistan24 quotes Mohammed Shia al-Sudani as saying that the interests of the needy were not taken into consideration when the currency was devalued by approximately 20 percent in December 2020. "We tend not to repeat that in this cabinet," he said. But according to Asharq al-Awsat, even though more than 50 MPs have petitioned the government to reverse the devaluation, it is considered unlikely to happen, as it would increase the government's costs by more than $24 billion each year. Al Araby also cites the Iraqi Finance Minister as saying that the dinar value will not be changed in the 2023 budget bill. It adds, however, that former Prime Minister Nouri Al Maliki has suggested an exchange rate of 1,375 dinars per dollar, down from the current level of 1,460, but not back to the pre-devaluation level of 1,182
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By Mark DeWeaver. Given the importance of oil for Iraq’s economy, you might think that the price of this commodity would be a key driver for Iraqi stocks. Strangely, this has not always been the case—most notably during the global financial crisis. From July to December, 2008, even as the oil price fell by a terrifying 76%, the Rabee Securities’ RSISX index was practically unchanged, moving serenely sideways as though nothing were happening. (See left chart. The oil price index is based on front-month Brent futures.) Based on this precedent, I have long believed that ISX investors have nothing to fear from oil price crashes. Politics and the security situation have always seemed to be the main things to watch. The bear market that started in June of last year, for example, looked like an obvious consequence of the fall of Mosul (see this post). And, as I arguedhere, a turnaround on the battlefield would likely mark a rebound in stocks. Looking at the price action in oil and the ISX over the past year, however, I’m no longer so convinced that the former can be safely ignored. Once again oil prices have crashed, dropping 58% from June 2014 to January 2015, and this time the RSISX is down big as well. The index fell 45% before finally rebounding in March of this year. (See right chart.) http://www.iraq-businessnews.com/2015/06/13/oil-and-the-isx-cause-and-effect/ Have Iraqi stocks and oil prices started to move together in a way that they didn’t before? Looking at my two charts it would be easy to draw that conclusion, but unfortunately there’s not really enough evidence to be sure. It would be premature to claim a cause-and-effect relationship on the basis of a single episode. But suppose just for the sake of argument that oil is the dispositive factor for Iraqi stocks at this point. The question then becomes, does the oil price rally that started at the beginning of this year still have legs? The most convincing research I have seen on this question was a note from the Research Center at Miller Tabak. Their analyst found that “in 12 of the 13 major tops/bottoms” since 1998, longer-dated oil futures prices were above spot prices at bottoms and below them at tops. (Traders call the former situation “contango,” the latter “backwardation.”) And as of the June 12 close, December 2021 WTI futures are at a 16% premium to the July 2015 contract, making the crude curve look quite a lot like it did at the 2008 bottom. If oil really is now driving Iraqi stocks, this finding suggests that the trend for the RSISX, in the short term at least, should continue to be up.
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After watching the latest report on Benghazi and then the terrible riots in Ferguson last night, I find myself perplexed about the mindset of what I call, the average American. Conservatives are up in arms about the latest report on Benghazi, even to the point of calling out fellow constituents. They are absolutely convinced the events that happened in Benghazi and the subsequent mistakes are being covered up, and nothing short of criminal convictions of this administration will suffice. Then we turn to Ferguson. The grand jury has given it's ruling and all hell breaks loose shortly after. I have read on other threads that "justice is served" end of story. Therein lies the dilemma. How do some people completely mistrust the process and then completely trust the process when it suits their needs. Many times I have been told to have an open mind to the things happening around me. I do, yet I also trust in our justice process to work. I accept the outcome in both of these cases, for that is what our system is set up to achieve....Truth. Am I naive, perhaps? I just don't understand how emotion controls this country, rather than rational thought, even if it's not a popular outcome. As always, just my opinion. (After reading this over, my opinion is not meant as an indictment of conservative America) GO RV, and NO BV
