IMF warns of growing economic disparities

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IMF warns of growing economic disparities

 

 

4/14/2016 0:00   Morning / Agencies  International Monetary Fund warned last week of political isolationism risk, particularly the prospect of Britain out of the European Union, as well as growing economic disparities , while reducing its forecast for global growth for the fourth time in a year. The Fund , which is preparing for the Spring Meetings in Washington this week and said that vulnerable chronic expose the world economy to the risk of shocks , such as sharp cuts to the values of currencies and the worsening geopolitical conflicts.  Fund predicted in its latest report the growth of the global economy of 3.2 percent this year , compared to the predicted rate it was downwardly of 3.4 percent in January with.And already cut growth estimates in July , October of last year ,  the IMF said that the global economy will grow 3.5 percent in 2017 , down 0.1 percentage points from the January estimate.  He noted the latest report of the Fund to the aggravation of the repercussions of the economic slowdown , the Chinese and the impact of low oil prices in the emerging , such as Brazil 's economies . He also highlighted the continued economic weakness in Japan, Europe and the United States.  Pave the gloomy picture for the launch of an invitation from the IMF and World Bank this week for more global action coordinated to support growth.  Morris said Oobstfeld chief economist of the International Monetary Fund , told a news conference « In short, lower growth means margin less for error »adding that« scars »years of slow growth may weaken in turn , demand and shrinking labor force and reduce the potential economic output further. the  Fund warned in his report of the rise of nationalist parties in Europe and the planned referendum on Britain 's withdrawal from the European Union in the 23 next June and statements opposing free trade during the US presidential race and said that all that is threatening the global economic outlook.  he said Britain out of the European Union might suffer «regionally and globally damaging dangerous by destabilizing the existing trade relations.»  he urged the Fund 's policy - makers to boost growth through measures such as the liberalization of some industries and increase the participation of the workers. States in a position financially and recommended to increase investment in infrastructure and reduced employment taxes and encourage central banks to continue easing  monetary.  The reduction of the Fund 's expectation for the growth of Japan 's economy in 2016 by half to 0.5 percent. As fund officials said that Brazil 's economy could shrink 3.8 percent this year , while the previous forecast for a contraction of 3.5 percent as the largest Latin American economies facing economic recession is the most violent to him in decades.  In the meantime, the United States experienced one of the controversial points in the global economy cut IMF projected economic growth in 2016 to 2.4 percent from 2.6 percent. The fund US exports adversely affected by the strong dollar sign and the continuing weakness of investment in energy due to low oil prices.  It is noteworthy that the fund has raised expectation for the growth of the Chinese economy slightly to 6.5 percent this year and 6.2 percent in 2017 partly due to stimulus measures announced in advance. But he added that it would cut its growth forecast for China 's economy in the long term and said that his conversion «important» for investment growth , led by still shake trade happening  world.  The Fund also predicted in this regard , the growth of the economy of the euro zone ,consisting of 19 countries of 1.5 percent this year and 1.6 percent in in 2017 ,compared with 1.7 percent the past two years, as well as the prediction for the month of January last.

 

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The economic crisis and the global growth of government debt in 2016

 

 

4/21/2016 0:00   Capitals - agencies and  global sources expected to continue to the United States, China, Brazil and India pushed global government debt , despite the slight decline in the annual global borrowing programs.  The agency issued credit ratings annual report says that the expected increase in global government debt 2 percent to $ 42.4 trillion of loans the new $ 6.7 trillion to remain higher than the outstanding debt, and stop a number of key countries behind this upward trend.  and it is expected that US borrowing 2 percent more than the equivalent of $ 163 billion on an annual basis, while China is expected to increase second - largest economy in the world borrowed 18 percent to 51 billion dollars.  it would have been expected to increase in China and in countries such as Brazil and India , pay to borrow emerging markets to rise 9.4 percent on an annual basis , or $ 587 billion and raise the total emerging market debt to $ 6.8 trillion by the end  of the  year.  the agency said the ratings credit: it expects to acquire Brazil 's largest absolute increase in annual borrowing where he is expected that it borrowed $ 14 billion more in 2015 , up eight percent.  it is expected to increase loans each from Poland and India $ 12 billion, equivalent to 38 percent and eight percent respectively. In contrast to the expected decline in Japan 's loans and the euro zone countries such as Canada, Britain   and Ukraine.  It Almtouka- Kzlk- decline in the euro zone about six percent loans , but the total debt will continue to rise to more than seven trillion euros with the increase in the region loans for outstanding debt, as well as the decline sharp in bond issues to 6.745 trillion from 6.899 trillion in 2015 but with a $ 4.9 trillion entitlement to the "net" of $ 1.7 trillion increase will continue to drive the world 's total debt   to rise.

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 United States, China, Brazil and India 

Funny..not Iraq?

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Countries need to reduce the wage gap between the public and private sectors

4/30/2016 0:00  Report of the IMF: slowing growth 3 percent  BAGHDAD - morning  report predicted «developments in the regional economy of the Middle East and Central Asia» issued by the Fund to record growth this year , an average of about 3 percent.Although this rate slightly higher than in 2015, this modest boom reflects primarily the increase in oil production in Iraq and Iran after the lifting of sanctions. However , the growth forecasts point to a further slowdown in most of the other oil - exporting countries this year , with the reduction of public spending to counter the drop in oil prices.  The latest report growth outlook in 2016 for most of the Petroleum Exporting Countries cut in the «Middle East and North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan» area compared projections issued last October.  at the same time, the economic recovery is still fragile and unbalanced between the oil -importing countries in the Middle East and North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan.  it is expected to slow growth to 3.5 percent in 2016 because of the negative fallout from the slowdown in growth in countries neighboring oil - exporting and the intensification of regional conflicts.  in this context , Masood Ahmed Director of the Middle East Department and Central Asia , said during the effective launch of the report in Dubai: «it is necessary that the acceleration of all countries to intensify efforts to design and implement reforms to give a boost to the prospects for the economy and provide jobs and enhance the containment of growth before too late ».  assured Ahmed that the international community needs to strengthen coordination and improved to support the refugees and bring stability in the affected countries. He said that «there is a large financing needs, with additional funding of host countries are required to be able to finance projects related to the crisis.»  And Ahmed told reporters that «oil price decline led to heavy losses in export revenue reached $ 390 billion last year and is expected to be in addition to $ 140 billion again this year. »the many countries significant steps taken to adjust their balance sheets situation, focusing mainly on the reduction of capital expenditures, as well as to carry out significant reforms in energy prices.  However , it is still expected to arrive the average fiscal deficit in Algeria and the Gulf cooperation Council to 12.75 percent of GDP in 2016, and remain at a level of 7 percent over the medium term. It is expected that a deficit of 7.75 percent of GDP in 2016 in the region 's other oil - exporting countries - the countries that are less dependent in general on oil revenues.  Despite concerted efforts to curb the deficit efforts, Ahmed said that «it would require considerable further measures to reduce the deficit over the next several years to ensure the sustainability of public finances and the sharing of oil wealth fairly with future generations. » the  report points to the need for countries to reduce dependence on oil and accelerate the pace of reforms to deal with the new reality , which is characterized by a decline in oil prices. It is desirable that the policy - makers implementation of support reforms to diversify the economy and the growth of non - oil sector, such as reducing the pay gap between the public and private sectors, and to promote compatibility between the education and skills needed in the market.  Ahmad said: that «there is a priority on the same degree of importance is that can the private sector provide adequate employment opportunities for residents of the growing numbers of young people, a process that will require deep structural reforms to improve the growth prospects in the medium term. »  saw the oil - importing countries in the region rebound to growth of 3 percent in 2011-2014 to 3.75 percent in 2015. It is expected that growth in 2016 - 2017 remain around this level as evaluated by the report.  This recovery drew support from lower oil prices and improved confidence levels,  given the progress made by recent reforms. However, tension hangs over the outlook because of the insecurity and the negative repercussions of regional conflicts, as well as lower remittances and falling trade and financial aid recently as a result of the economic slowdown in the Gulf Cooperation Council.  It has helped effects of energy subsidy reforms, coupled with a decline in oil prices, the reduction of the government deficit from a peak of 9.5 percent in 2013 to about 6.5 percent of GDP in 2016. The report recommends conducting additional measures to control public finances - conditions so designed in a manner supportive  of growth - to put public debt on a sustainable and maintaining macroeconomic stability path and for some countries, it can lead to increase exchange rate flexibility to fiscal discipline by helping to absorb the impact of support external shocks, and improve foreign positions through competitive support.  in the report, the Fund 's policy - makers are encouraged in these countries to promote structural reforms that raise the quality of education and improve the efficiency of labor markets and financial markets and increase trade openness to help  drive economic growth and job creation.