Accord paves way for re-election of Iraq PM

[rainmakr55]

http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/10275/1092236-82.stm?cmpid=news.xml

BAGHDAD -- Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki of Iraq appeared almost assured of a second term in office on Friday after securing the support of an anti-American Shiite Islamic movement whose return to political power could profoundly complicate relations with the United States.

The deal came as a breakthrough after nearly seven months of bare-knuckle back-room bargaining that followed the country's election on March 7.

It came with political costs, uncertainty and risks, splintering a broad Shiite alliance and threatening to raise tensions with Sunnis who largely supported a secular Shiite leader, Ayad Allawi.

As a result, it could still take weeks or longer for Mr. Maliki to secure re-election and form a new government, even as public frustration and extremist violence continue to mount. But Mr. Maliki spoke late Friday night with certainty that the long contest of wills was finally over.

"We are confident that with the cooperation and efforts of honorable and faithful Iraqis, we will, God willing, be able to overcome the difficulties, challenges and problems and complete the construction of the institutions of state of a free, democratic Iraq," Mr. Maliki said in televised remarks.

He owes his new support to the extraordinary political resurrection of Moktada al-Sadr, the self-exiled cleric whose fighters once battled in the streets of Baghdad, Basra and other cities with Iraqi and American troops. Until days ago he fiercely opposed Mr. Maliki's re-election.

Mr. Maliki's success reflected his tenacity -- tinged with authoritarianism -- to retain power, despite widespread opposition to his leadership. It also showed his willingness to disregard -- for political expediency -- American concerns about the return of Mr. Sadr's followers to the center of political power.

A dour, uncharismatic leader, Mr. Maliki has persisted in arguing that only he can prevent a descent into the sectarian carnage that consumed Iraq when he took office in 2006, even if that means allying with a movement blamed for much of the violence.

While Obama administration officials insisted over months of quiet diplomacy that they preferred no candidate, only a broadly inclusive government, they made it clear that they did not favor a government that included the Sadrists, who are closely allied with Iran and oppose the presence of American troops.

This week, a senior American military commander in Baghdad blamed Shiite extremist groups, including one affiliated with Mr. Sadr, for a spike in rocket attacks on the capital's Green Zone.

In Washington, officials were noticeably cool to news of the agreement between Mr. Maliki and Mr. Sadr, in no small part because it signaled an ascendant Iranian influence in Iraq.

"An Iraqi government that owes its existence to the Sadrists and lacks strong support from Allawi would necessarily be one that leans in Tehran's direction, something Washington can little afford at the moment," Daniel P. Serwer, a vice president at the United States Institute of Peace, said in an e-mail.

Mr. Maliki, who is 60, now has the backing of at least 148 lawmakers in the new 325-member Parliament to form a government, just short of a majority. The Kurds, with 57 seats among several parties, indicated Friday that they, too, would support his re-election, though only with concessions on territorial, economic and political issues.

"Now he has a great possibility to become prime minister again," said a prominent Kurdish lawmaker, Mahmoud Othman.

That would give Mr. Maliki a solid majority, though he must still cobble together a governing coalition among various parties jockeying for control of important positions and ministries, especially those overseeing oil and the security forces.

"What happened now is the best for Iraqis," said a leader of Mr. Maliki's party, Ali al-Adeeb.

He called for a swift session of Parliament to elect Mr. Maliki and pledged to continue talks to include other factions, especially Mr. Allawi's, which includes almost all of the newly elected Sunni lawmakers. Mr. Maliki echoed that in his statement.

Mr. Allawi's bloc vowed to oppose the nomination, but despite winning slightly more seats than Mr. Maliki did, 91 to 89, he and his supporters did not appear to have enough votes to do so.

It was not immediately clear when the new Parliament, known as the Council of Representatives, would meet again. It has convened only once, for 18 minutes, despite constitutional deadlines that have passed unheeded.

By law, the members must first elect a president, who then authorizes the leading bloc to form a government coalition.

Mr. Maliki's nomination underscored the ever-shifting alliances of power here. The Sadrists at first backed Adel Abdul Mahdi, one of two vice presidents who is a leader of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, which was part of a broader Shiite alliance that joined Mr. Maliki's bloc after the election, only to disagree on who should be prime minister.

That party's leaders boycotted the nominating session on Friday and met later with Mr. Allawi. A party member, Ali Shubar, said it would oppose Mr. Maliki because "we won't vote for another failed government." The outcome of the struggle over the next prime minister showed the ebbing of the power of a party that once dominated Shiite politics after Saddam Hussein's toppling.

The Sadrists proved to be more effective and disciplined campaigners, with strong grass-roots support among Iraq's Shiites. Having embraced politics, they are now poised to wield influence they have not had since they withdrew from the previous government in 2006.

The Sadrist leaders present on Friday did not explain their drastic and sudden swing toward Mr. Maliki. But in a statement two days ago, issued from Iran, where he is studying theology, Mr. Sadr sounded the pragmatic note of a seasoned politician.

He cited a saying of his father, Ayatollah Muhammad Sadiq al-Sadr, a revered Shiite leader who was killed in 1999 under Mr. Hussein's regime.

"Politics has no heart," Mr. Sadr said, in response to a letter from a follower. "Be informed, politics is giving and taking."

One of the main issues facing Iraq in the coming year is what, if any, American military presence will continue after a deadline in December 2011 for withdrawing the remaining 50,000 American troops here.

Diplomats and military commanders here have already signaled an interest in maintaining a close security relationship with Iraq as it rebuilds its armed services and solidifies its fragile democratic institutions.

While many Iraqi political and military leaders have expressed support for that, the Sadrists remain opposed to what they call "a foreign occupation."

This article originally appeared in The New York Times.

Read more: http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/10275/1092236-82.stm?cmpid=news.xml#ixzz11EG5q8E3

[thegente]

I really doubt the US would let a radical into the Iraqi gov't after all we have been through, and all that is at stake financially. I think we're in for more surprises. But who knows what is REALLY going on right?

[dlbfilm]

The plot thickens... or sickens.....