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Theseus

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Everything posted by Theseus

  1. I will point you to a quote reported back on October 29, 2014, after Maliki suppressed the Delete the Zeros Project in 2012/13. Combined with the IMF report due out in July/August (more than likely August as it has been in the past), this does look promising going forward towards 2020. The only obstacle is seating a full government and here we are a year later and still have 3 cabinet ministers yet to be appointed. Iran still needs to get their behind out of Iraqi politics (will never happen) and if an incident were to occur between the US and Iran, this could be an excuse to put this on hold. A grain of sand could move and the Iraqis would find an excuse to delay then go have a holiday until the political tryst between the US and Iran settles down. Let's see what the IMF has to say because it could lead to Iraq going into Art. 8 and the dinar being reinstated on the Global Currency market before the Iraqi Oil and Gas Law is passed.
  2. Apparently they can't color in between the lines. Ironman has some serious bleeding of red off his helmet. I guess a third grader could do better.
  3. Here is a hypothetical (and everything is hypothetical until it is not). In the post I previously posted, Iraq first unofficially uncoupled itself from the GBP and when it officially uncoupled it pegged itself to the USD. With the push to get away from the USD, what would the exchange rate be if the CBI chose to unofficially peg itself to the EU and/or the GBP instead of the USD? The GBP has a current exchange rate with the USD of 1.26 USD to 1 GBP. Or the EUR has a current exchange rate of 1.12 USD to 1 EUR. And we use the mean of the two to derive a rate, it would come out as 1.19 today (hypothetically). Who knows its always fun to run the numbers and do the calculations. I mean hypothetically a bird could get into the room and trying to get rid of the bird, the bird flits and flutters about and the rate gets typed into the computer as 3.22. Then the lowly tech after removing the bird notices he didn't enter the rate as he was told and just hits enter. So now the rate is 3.22. Or a sasquatch comes thumping down the hallway and as the lowly tech is typing away, the vibrations of bigfoot's large feet that moves the typist's finger over so instead of 1 it gets entered as 2.20. Or a grey transports into the room and the lowly tech gets so scared he bangs his hand on the computer and he enters .01 and the enter key is pressed as well. Now the rate is .01. Or let's say a flying unicorn comes in powered by farting rainbows. The lowly tech is so enamored by all the love in the room he falls into a joyful happy sleep. His head slowly and gently lands on the keyboard and the rate is entered as 657832. Or the ghost of Sadam drops from the ceiling and his feet (since he is hanging by a rope) touches the keyboard as the lowly tech goes screaming out of the room. Sadam's big toe touches a 5 and his right little toe touches the 9. And as Sadam continues to fall through the room, the enter key is pressed and the new rate becomes 59. Or it could just be simply aliens as to the reason for the rate.
  4. I am not suggesting any rate. I was told when I got into this Shabibi said he was shooting for 1.16. So that is what I am going by, it may come out at .01 or it may come out at 5, who knows for sure? But it should be somewhere in between the two. I am not saying that is the rate nor do I know the rate. The post above shows historical value and is by no means a precursor to the RV rate or what the dinar is currently or should be worth. If you see the question before the orange text, it is in response to the individual writing a self published book saying the rV will never happen nor is it planned to happen.
  5. I believe you said "...because historically up till saddam invasion of kuwait ..." which includes the era of Sadam and before. Sadam did not come into power until 1979. And you are right historically the IQD has been over 2 dollars but going into the era of Sadam, the price point of the Dinar was highly suspect. Meaning what Iraq claimed it to be wasn't the real worth. The price point of the IQD has been highly suspicious since around 1973 (see my below response in a November 2018 post). Unless you were a first-hand witness, any information got is done by "research" and that ain't always easy. The below response is why if Iraq RVs under 1 dollar and floats will rise quite rapidly on the market, IMHO. Currency expert John Jagerson, of LearningMarkets.com, tells WHNT News 19 a "revaluation" of Iraqi dinar "could not happen" and "is not planned to happen." In October 1931, the Iraqi Dinar (IQD) was unofficially uncoupled from the British Pound and pegged itself to the US Dollar (USD), where until 1949, the IQD, equaled 4.86 USD. Until 1971, the IQD devalued to 1 IQD to 2.80 USD. In 1959, the IQD was officially uncoupled from the British Pound as a gesture of Iraq's independence. From 1959 until 1967, at which time the British pound revalued, the IQD remained n par with the British Pound. From 1967 to December 1971 the value of 1 IQD equaled 2.80 USD. From 1973 until 1982, during the Iraq-Iranian War, the IQD was equal to 3.39 USD. In 1982 it was devalued to 1 IQD to 3.22 USD. Although into the early part of 1988, the standard exchange rates continued to show the IQD as 1 IQD to 3.22 USD, the IQD's real exchange rate was much lower by half of the standard exchange rate. After the Gulf War I and due to UN sanctions, the IQD was devalued from 3.22 IQD to 1 USD to 3000 IQD to 1 USD. by late 1995. In 2003 the IQD was equal to 0.00027 USD and was revalued to 1 IQD to 0.00068 (more than double the value) in August 2005. In January 2006, the IQD was devalued to 1 IQD to 0.00067 USD. Since then the IQD has been revalued and devalued to where it stands today at 1 IQD to 0.00083. A 125.42% increase from January 2006 or an average increase of 10.5% per year which is currently better than most hedge fund returns. To say the RV will not happen is to be ignorant of currency and not just Iraqi's currency. Countries revalue and devalue their currencies through the years. One of the biggest complaints about China is their yo-yo currency where they devalue it frequently. This author, Jagerson, who spent years researching the subject to author a self-published e-book spent no more than 5 minutes espousing his bias that this is a scam. If he spent a little more time, let's say 15 minutes more, he would have come to s different conclusion.
  6. Here are a few more economic facts on Iraq: - The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Iraq contracted 1 percent in 2018 from the previous year. GDP Annual Growth Rate in Iraq averaged 7.04 percent from 1991 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 54.16 percent in 2004 and a record low of -56.40 percent in 1991. - Standard & Poor's credit rating for Iraq stands at B- with stable outlook. Moody's credit rating for Iraq was last set at Caa1 with stable outlook. Fitch's credit rating for Iraq was last reported at B- with stable outlook. In general, a credit rating is used by sovereign wealth funds, pension funds and other investors to gauge the credit worthiness of Iraq thus having a big impact on the country's borrowing costs. This page includes the government debt credit rating for Iraq as reported by major credit rating agencies. - The benchmark interest rate in Iraq was last recorded at 4 percent. Interest Rate in Iraq averaged 6.84 percent from 2004 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 20 percent in December of 2007 and a record low of 4 percent in March of 2016. - Gold Reserves in Iraq remained unchanged at 96.30 Tonnes in the second quarter of 2019 from 96.30 Tonnes in the first quarter of 2019. Gold Reserves in Iraq averaged 30.17 Tonnes from 2000 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 96.30 Tonnes in the fourth quarter of 2018 and a record low of 0 Tonnes in the second quarter of 2000. - Deposit Interest Rate in Iraq decreased to 4.78 percent in 2016 from 4.86 percent in 2015. Deposit Interest Rate in Iraq averaged 6.80 percent from 2004 until 2016, reaching an all time high of 10.54 percent in 2008 and a record low of 4.78 percent in 2016. - Employment Rate in Iraq decreased to 28.20 percent in 2018 from 43.20 percent in 2016. Employment Rate in Iraq averaged 44.06 percent from 2003 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 49.72 percent in 2006 and a record low of 28.20 percent in 2018. - Money Supply M0 in Iraq increased to 63359 IQD Billion in March from 61999 IQD Billion in February of 2019. Money Supply M0 in Iraq averaged 44900.49 IQD Billion from 2003 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 73259 IQD Billion in December of 2013 and a record low of 6708 IQD Billion in December of 2003. - Money Supply M2 in Iraq increased to 91724 IQD Billion in February from 91691 IQD Billion in January of 2019. Money Supply M2 in Iraq averaged 54582.68 IQD Billion from 2003 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 93699 IQD Billion in December of 2018 and a record low of 6953 IQD Billion in December of 2003. - Money Supply M1 in Iraq decreased to 71827 IQD Billion in February from 71856 IQD Billion in January of 2019. Money Supply M1 in Iraq averaged 44739.39 IQD Billion from 2003 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 74504 IQD Billion in January of 2014 and a record low of 5774 IQD Billion in December of 2003. - Crude Oil Production in Iraq remained unchanged at 4500 BBL/D/1K in April from 4500 BBL/D/1K in March of 2019. Crude Oil Production in Iraq averaged 2135.44 BBL/D/1K from 1973 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 4830 BBL/D/1K in December of 2016 and a record low of 0 BBL/D/1K in February of 1991. - Industrial Production in Iraq increased 0.80 percent in the fourth quarter of 2018 over the same quarter in the previous year. Industrial Production in Iraq averaged 4.39 percent from 1999 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 49.37 percent in the second quarter of 2009 and a record low of -28.60 percent in the fourth quarter of 2003. - Crude Oil Rigs in Iraq remained unchanged at 67 in March from 67 in February of 2019. Crude Oil Rigs in Iraq averaged 42.76 from 2009 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 96 in June of 2014 and a record low of 0 in June of 2009. - The inflation rate in Iraq was recorded at 0.70 percent in March of 2019. Inflation Rate in Iraq averaged 10.11 percent from 2005 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 76.55 percent in August of 2006 and a record low of -6.37 percent in October of 2009. - Cost of food in Iraq increased 0.60 percent in March of 2019 over the same month in the previous year. Food Inflation in Iraq averaged 1.01 percent from 2011 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 13.27 percent in April of 2012 and a record low of -7.19 percent in January of 2015 - Military Expenditure in Iraq decreased to 6200 USD Million in 2018 from 7416 USD Million in 2017. Military Expenditure in Iraq averaged 5051.20 USD Million from 2004 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 9536 USD Million in 2015 and a record low of 2037 USD Million in 2006. - CPI Housing Utilities in Iraq decreased to 114.10 Index Points in March from 114.70 Index Points in February of 2019. CPI Housing Utilities in Iraq averaged 114.65 Index Points from 2015 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 120.20 Index Points in September of 2017 and a record low of 109.50 Index Points in May of 2015 - The transportation sub-index of the CPI basket in Iraq remained unchanged at 98.20 Index Points in March of 2019 from 98.20 Index Points in February of 2019. CPI Transportation in Iraq averaged 96.31 Index Points from 2015 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 102 Index Points in May of 2018 and a record low of 94.50 Index Points in April of 2016. - Consumer Price Index CPI in Iraq decreased to 104.40 Index Points in March from 104.90 Index Points in February of 2019. Consumer Price Index CPI in Iraq averaged 100.12 Index Points from 2009 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 107.40 Index Points in November of 2014 and a record low of 86.50 Index Points in March of 2009. - Core consumer prices in Iraq increased 0.60 percent in March of 2019 over the same month in the previous year. Core Inflation Rate in Iraq averaged 8.19 percent from 2000 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 107.04 percent in July of 2004 and a record low of -2.10 percent in January of 2016. - Core Consumer Prices in Iraq decreased to 105.10 Index Points in March from 105.20 Index Points in February of 2019. Core Consumer Prices in Iraq averaged 104.90 Index Points from 2016 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 106.50 Index Points in July of 2018 and a record low of 103.70 Index Points in November of 2016.
  7. The problem with the quote from the era of Sadam is that although the rate was around 3.21, the real value of the IQD was said to be half of that value. SO in a sense, technically you are right that the dinar wasn't under 2.00; however, its real value, according to speculators at the time, was that it was worth much less and under 2 dollars. Remember it was Sadam who set the price point of the dinar.
  8. In The Articles of Agreement of the IMF Article 8 Section 3 states Straight from the horse's mouth. So no you are not naive.
  9. Your answer, about the Exec Board, is in the article and we will have to wait for the report to get the second answer. “The team will prepare a report that, subject to management approval, is tentatively scheduled to be considered by the IMF’s Executive Board in July 2019."
  10. Here some good news at least, but iffy because nothing has been heard from the IMF. The last month for the observance periods goes through the end of March 2019 as outlined in the agreement. The report is then to be made available on or after June 15, 2019. This is circumspect because we should have heard at least something since November 2017, the last mention of the third review by the IMF. We'll know if the government not being seated played a factor whether a press release is issued, by the latest, in August/September. (It has usually been the second week of August) What does this mean? Something like a press release should come out after that time, but in the past, it has come out in August. This does not, I reiterate does not, I will say again, does not (okay I said it three times. need I say it again?) This does not mean the RV will happen on this date. When I have said "after 2019" means: after Dec 31 11:59:59 PM Baghdad time. IF the final report comes out in August, the next window will be at the end of September/beginning of October when the new quarter begins. I highly doubt that that is likely even if the stars align. The next window will be January, again highly unlikely as I believe if they get the okay fro the IMF they will begin their "delete the zeros" program in which will begin the approval process of Chapter 8 and finally an RV. Shabibi has stated how long this process will take. If we hear they start the delete the zeros program in January 2020, then we are on the downhill side of things. Another indication will be another bump in the cost of the dinar at that time. Look for more delete the zeros articles to start popping up right before or after Christmas into beginning Jan.
  11. They don't have to do jack to rv as was evident when they RVd in 2015 (the dinar was technically rvd in 2015 just not in the direction that most want). They choose to do things to improve stability of the value behind the dinar when they rv is another matter altogether.
  12. To answer this question, first recall Iraq had an SBA with the IMF in 2010 (see my previous post in this thread for the dates) to which when completed in 2012 Shabibi was let go from the CBI and the CBI was placed under the control of the cabinet and not the parliament (you can thank Maliki for securing a court ruling for this). The allegations against Shabibi have asserted he manipulated the exchange rate as the completion of this SBA with the IMF (something most people miss about when Shabibi TRIED to reinstate the dinar). The closest election to 2012 was the previous election in 2010. In June 2010, Iraq's parliament opened proceedings and it was not until an agreement was reached in November 2010 that a fully formed Iraqi government was seated. The answer to the question was there a "fully" formed GOI when Dr. Shabibi tried to Reinstate the Iraqi dinar, is a resoundingly yes there was a fully formed Iraqi government at that time Shabib TRIED to reinstate the Iraqi dinar. Iraq held governate elections in 2013 and it wasn't until 2014 that parliamentary elections were held once again.
  13. This article tends to forget the reason behind the 2016 SBA, the origination of the loan for a large amount of money to be spread out over three installments. The other problem the IMF has is that they do business with only fully formed governments. Since Iraq still has not fully formed since last year's election, it cannot proceed. Therefore the last installment and the third review cannot take place until Iraq's government gets it's act together. The first and second reviews while were successful have had benchmarks missed and those benchmarks subsequently waived. So Iraq is the problem in its own agreement with the IMF. Remember, it was not until after this agreement that Iraq stated it would not take on more loans. Here are some excerpts from the Second Review What Iraq has been working on since completion of Second Review The [Iraqi] government remains committed to...achieve debt sustainability while maintaining the exchange rate peg, strengthening public financial management and banking supervision, and fighting money laundering, the financing of terrorism, and corruption. (see below) As part of the completion of the second review, the Board also approved Iraq’s request for waivers of non-observance and applicability of performance criteria, and modification of performance criteria. (two waivers were requested, 10 of 12 benchmarks were met) The economic policies implemented by the Iraqi authorities to deal with the shocks facing Iraq—the armed conflict with ISIS and the ensuing humanitarian crisis and the collapse in oil prices—are appropriate. Resolute implementation of the authorities’ program, together with strong international financial support, will be key. (ISIS has not been completely eradicated from Iraq,) Further fiscal consolidation measures are needed in 2017-18 to keep the program on track...The composition of the fiscal adjustment should be improved over time by increasing non-oil revenue and reducing current expenditure...reforming the electricity sector and state-owned enterprises will make room for larger and more effective investment expenditure that supports growth and job creation. Significantly improving public financial management will be important. Arrears need to be assessed and paid following verification, and expenditure commitment and cash management should be strengthened to prevent the accumulation of new arrears.[I have talked about this, in regards to the SBA, in the past. Notice the articles? Iraq asked for a postponement of paying arrears to who again? ] Measures to bolster financial sector stability include strengthening the legal framework of the Central Bank of Iraq, restructuring state-owned banks, and eliminating an exchange restriction and a multi-currency practice. Measures to prevent money-laundering, counter the financing of terrorism, and strengthen the anti-corruption legislation also need to be implemented. (Take a look at past articles from the date of the second review and notice a trend?) Implementation of the budget-sharing agreement with the Kurdistan Regional Government would put both the federal government and the Kurdistan Regional Government in a better position to address the shocks to the Iraqi economy CBI Board undertook a realignment of the peg from 1166 to 1182 dinar per USD on December 1, 2015 (see below) CBI stands ready to provide foreign exchange at the official exchange rate plus commissions for permissible transactions through its daily allocations, establishing a peg...because certain transactions are excluded from access to the CBI auctions, many transactions take place at parallel market exchange rates (see below) Iraq continues.. [to] maintain one exchange restriction and one multiple currency practice (MCP) subject to Fund approval under Article VIII, Sections 2(a) and 3 (see below) CBI stands ready to provide foreign exchange at the official exchange rate plus commissions for permissible transactions through its daily allocations, establishing a peg. However, because certain transactions are excluded from access to the CBI auctions, many transactions take place at parallel market exchange rates The average spread between the official and market rates was around 6 percent in June 2017. In view of the difficulty to reduce to zero the obligations outstanding for more than three months to international oil companies (because of the lumpy size of oil shipments), the government proposes to raise the floor on these obligations to $500 million, starting in September 2017. (see below) Dates of the Review Third review of the Stand-By Arrangement September 2017 March 2018 Fourth review of the Stand-By Arrangement December 2017 June 2018 (These two reviews did not happen due to the election and the last statement put out by the IMF on this was dated Nov 17, 2017) Latest Financial Arrangements Type Date of Arrangement Expiration Date Amount Approved (SDR Million) Amount Drawn (SDR Million) Stand-By Jul 07, 2016 Jul 06, 2019 3,831.00 910.00 Stand-By Feb 24, 2010 Feb 23, 2013 2,376.80 1,069.56 Stand-By Dec 19, 2007 Mar 18, 2009 475.36 0.00 (Every time a disbursement happened there were outcries of a new loan to which I countered was part of the SBA) Exchange Arrangement Iraq’s de jure and de facto exchange rate arrangements are classified as a conventional peg arrangement. The Central Bank Law provides the Board of the CBI with power to formulate exchange rate policy. The CBI Board undertook a realignment of the peg from 1166 to 1182 dinar per USD on December 1, 2015, unifying the effective rates applicable to cash sales and transfers at 1190 including the central bank commission. The CBI stands ready to provide foreign exchange at the official exchange rate plus commissions for permissible transactions through its daily allocations, establishing a peg. However, because certain transactions are excluded from access to the CBI auctions, many transactions take place at parallel market exchange rates. Until March 2016, the CBI published the daily volume of the auction allocation on its website. Iraq continues to avail itself of the transitional arrangements under Article XIV, Section 2 but no longer maintains any exchange restrictions or multiple currency practices subject to Article XIV, Section 2, and currently maintains one exchange restriction and one multiple currency practice (MCP) subject to Fund approval under Article VIII, Sections 2(a) and 3. The exchange restriction arises from an Iraqi balance owed to Jordan under an inoperative bilateral payments agreement. The MCP arises from the official action to limit the purchase of foreign exchange, with no mechanism to ensure that exchange rates in the official and parallel markets do not deviate from IRAQ 4 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND each other by more than 2 percent. The average spread between the official and market rates was around 6 percent in June 2017. In addition, to the extent the authorities maintain exchange restrictions imposed for security reasons, these should be notified to the IMF under the framework of Decision 144-(52/51). Issues with Monetary and Financial Statistics The CBI reports monetary statistics for the central bank and other depository corporations (ODCs) for publication in the IMF’s International Financial Statistics (IFS), using the standardized report forms (SRFs). However, the quality and timeliness of the data continue to be hampered by the lack of staff capacity, particularly at the commercial bank level and source data quality. There are major inconsistencies between financial soundness indicators for deposit takers (state-owned and private banks combined) and SRF 2SR for ODCs, which are an indication of data quality problems. Per the CBI officials, all foreign-owned companies operating in Iraq are classified as nonresidents—a deviation from international standards regarding the application of the residence concept. In addition, monetary statistics do not cover the northern region (Kurdistan) due to problems with data collection. The publication of SRF data in IFS has been delayed, while the reporting of Fund accounts in the relevant statistics is still pending the authorities’ confirmation. A monetary and financial statistics mission is planned for FY17 to improve the compilation practice with focus on the account classification and the reporting of Fund accounts. Excerpts of Statement by Mr. Hazem Beblawi, Executive Director for Iraq and Ms. Maya Choueiri, Senior Advisor to the Executive Director August 1, 2017 1. Since mid-2014, Iraq has been facing a double shock resulting from the so-called Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) conflict and the sharp drop in global oil prices. 2. Against this background, in order to restore fiscal and external sustainability, the authorities have taken bold steps to put their public finances on a sustainable footing, while maintaining their commitment to the exchange rate peg, which continues to provide a key nominal anchor in an uncertain environment. 3. Despite these persistent efforts and encouraging developments, the Iraqi economy continues to face daunting challenges and risks, notably a further decline in oil prices, political and security instability, and considerable constraints in administrative capacity. 4. Real GDP growth remained strong in 2016, increasing by 11 percent, due to the increase in oil production resulting from past oil investment. Nonetheless, oil production is expected to contract in 2017 in line with the OPEC-agreed production cut. 5. In response to the fall in oil revenue, the authorities have implemented a large fiscal effort consolidation in 2014, with the aim to achieve debt sustainability. 6. The authorities will pursue their fiscal consolidation effort to bring spending in line with available resources. 7. Earlier this week, parliament approved a supplementary 2017 budget reducing total spending by 2 percent and introducing a credit allocation for repaying arrears incurred during previous years. In the 2018 budget, the government will prepare measures (to be finalized during the third review) to reduce the non-oil primary deficit on an accrual basis by ID 2.3 trillion (4.4 percent of non-oil GDP) compared to the draft supplementary budget for 2017. The authorities intend to strengthen revenue by (i) auditing the Development Fund for Iraq and Successor Account 300/600 at the CBI to check that all oil revenue reaches the treasury; (ii) preparing and sending to parliament a sales and excise tax law in line with Fund technical assistance (TA) recommendations (proposed SB for the third SBA review); and (iii) introducing changes in the Customs Code in line with Fund TA recommendations (also proposed SB for the third SBA review). The government will also continue ongoing work on reforming state-owned non-financial enterprises and the electricity sector, notably by increasing collection and reducing production costs and capturing flared gas to use it for electricity production. 8. Public financial management reforms continue to rank high on the authorities’ agenda. They have adopted tight procedures for the approval of state guarantees (prior action). They will improve Government Finance Statistics reporting in line with Fund TA recommendations. They will also carry out quarterly surveys of arrears and prepare plans for 3 their orderly payment, following an independent audit of domestic arrears by the Board of Supreme Audit. The government will also design and implement a commitment control system for budget execution, in line with IMF TA recommendations to avoid the emergence of new arrears. Future reforms will include gradually moving to a Treasury Single Account, designing and implementing an Integrated Financial Management Information System, implementing Public Investment Management reform, and strengthening Debt Management with TA support from the Japanese International Cooperation Agency. Monetary, Exchange Rate and Financial Sector Policies and Reforms 9. The authorities remain committed to maintaining the peg to the U.S. dollar as the stability of the exchange rate continues to provide a key nominal anchor to the economy in an uncertain environment. They are working actively on removing remaining exchange restrictions and a multiple currency practice, in close cooperation with Fund staff. 10. The authorities are taking measures to enhance the stability of the banking sector. The audit of the financial statements of the two largest state-owned banks Rasheed and Rafidain will be completed by end-August 2017. (This was done.)Based on these audits, the Ministry of Finance will prepare a plan to restructure the two banks (This was done.), in cooperation with the World Bank. At the same time, the government is strengthening the legal framework of the CBI to provide for independent oversight, building on the December 2015 IMF safeguards assessment. The authorities will continue to implement reforms to strengthen the Anti-Money Laundering and Combating the Financing of Terrorism (AML/CFT) framework. Following the adoption of an AML/CFT compliance mechanism in October 2016, the CBI and Iraqi Insurance Diwan will issue AML/CFT instructions for exchange and insurance companies, followed by guidance to all reporting entities covered by the AML/CFT Law regarding the implementation of preventive measures. Performance Under the SBA 11. The government remains fully committed to the objectives of the program, notably gradually bringing expenditure down to a level consistent with the lower level of oil revenues to achieve debt sustainability while maintaining the exchange rate peg, strengthening public financial management and banking supervision, and fighting money laundering, the financing of terrorism, and corruption. The government will also ensure that social spending is protected. 12. As noted above, the PCs at end-December 2016 and one continuous PC under the SBA were missed because of the spending pressure flowing from the war against ISIS and the ensuing humanitarian crisis. These factors resulted in larger spending and lower external arrears payments than programmed for 2016. Considering the temporary nature of these arrears, and the steps to put the program back on track and improve cash management, the authorities request waivers for the non-observance of the continuous PC and one PC at end- 4 June 2017. They also request waivers of applicability for the four PCs at end-June 2017 for which complete information is not available yet. Notwithstanding a difficult environment and severe constraints, the authorities were able to preserve social spending above program floors by a significant margin. 13. Considerable progress was also made in meeting the structural benchmarks for the second review of the SBA, with ten out of twelve SBs met, while the remaining two are in progress. In particular, the authorities have completed essential SBs aimed at improving fiscal transparency, strengthening governance, enhancing debt management, improving cash management and fiscal transparency, strengthening safeguards assessments and the governance of the CBI, and improving the business environment, as detailed in the Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies. In view of the difficulty to reduce to zero the obligations outstanding for more than three months to international oil companies (because of the lumpy size of oil shipments), the government proposes to raise the floor on these obligations to $500 million, starting in September 2017. Conclusion 15. Iraq continues to face particularly difficult times, and its economy remains under severe stress. In light of the performance under the SBA and the policies laid out in the MEFP, the authorities request the completion of the second review under the SBA and the purchase of the third tranche. The SBA continues to provide them with needed financial support and a valuable anchor during a period of considerable uncertainty. They are fully committed to implementing the SBA, although stable security conditions remain a prerequisite for the success of their policies.
  14. Only if the government of Iraq is fully seated. Otherwise, the moon will rot before the cows come home.
  15. Ban Baseball bats... and on and on until no one can leave a room that they are held in solitude.
  16. One of the most important reasons for the collapse of the regimes of "totalitarian dictatorship" is lying to the self and portraying reality in what is not. The flags of these countries were politicized and controlled by the security services of the systems and their intelligence, used to exaggerate and reflect the reality of the local economic reality I know those who wish to have the dinar return to the former glory it was before the war, but Sadam was the one who set the rate at that time. Speculators at the time came to the conclusion that the dinar was worth half of the over 1 USD to over 3 dinars at that time. At the time it was fooling the world and lying to the self by portraying a value of its currency of which in reality it was not. This is one of the arguments for a lower than a par value rate with the dollar when it RVs.
  17. If there is a will there is a way. (Charts didn't copy and paste) Ten charts on the rise of knife crime in England and Wales Danny ShawHome affairs correspondent@DannyShawBBCon Twitter 14 March 2019 Share this with Facebook Share this with Messenger Share this with Twitter Share this with Email Share Related Topics Knife crime Image copyrightAFP After falling for several years, knife crime in England and Wales is rising again. So what is happening? Total knife offences in England and Wales Offences involving a knife or sharp instrument Source: Home Office, year ending March. Figures exclude Greater Manchester. There were 39,818 knife crime offences in the 12 months ending September 2018. This is a two-thirds increase from the low-point in the year ending March 2014, when there were 23,945 offences, and is the highest number since comparable data was compiled. These statistics do not include those from Greater Manchester Police because of data recording issues. Out of the 44 police forces, 42 recorded a rise in knife crime since 2011. Hospital admissions for knife assaults Number of admissions for assault by a sharp object, England Source: NHS Digital, year ending March Police figures are prone to changes in counting rules and methods, but data for NHS hospitals in England over a similar period showed an 8% increase in admissions for assault by a sharp object, leading the Office for National Statistics (ONS) to conclude there had been a "real change" to the downward trend in knife crime. Doctors said the injuries they were treating were becoming more severe and the victims were getting younger, with increasing numbers of girls involved. What crimes are knives used for? % of knife crime by offence type, England and Wales, year ending September 2018 Source: Home Office All of the statistics here relate to England and Wales. Policing, criminal justice and sentencing are devolved in Scotland and Northern Ireland, which also collect crime data in slightly different ways. In the latest figures, which include only selected knife offences, about half, 19,761, were assaults that caused an injury or where there was an intent to cause serious harm; a further 18,556 involved robberies. Homicides comitted by knife Number of homicides committed by knife, 1977-2018, England and Wales Source: Home Office, calendar years until 1998. From there it is year ending March. These figures focus on homicides, or killings, a category comprising cases of murder, manslaughter and infanticide. In about two out of every five killings, the victim was fatally assaulted with a sharp object or stabbed to death. The number of knife-related homicides went from 272 in 2007 to 186 in 2015. Since then it's risen every year, with a steep increase in 2017-18, when there were 285 killings, the highest figure since 1946. One in four victims were men aged 18-24. The figures also show 25% of victims were black - the highest proportion since data was first collected in 1997. Most violent attacks involve no weapons Use of weapons in violent incidents, England and Wales, year ending March 2018 Source: ONS Although knife crime is on the increase, it should be seen in context. It's relatively unusual for a violent incident to involve a knife, and rarer still for someone to need hospital treatment. Most violence is caused by people hitting, kicking, shoving or slapping someone, sometimes during a fight and often when they're drunk; the police figures on violence also include crimes of harassment and stalking. The Crime Survey for England and Wales, which includes offences that aren't reported to police, indicates that overall levels of violence have fallen by about a quarter since 2013. However, the police-recorded statistics - which tend to pick up more "high harm" crimes - have indicated that the most serious violent crime is increasing. Most perpetrators of knife crime are over 18 Knife possession offences by age, England and Wales, year ending September 2018 Source: Ministry of Justice In the year to September 2018, 21,381 people were cautioned, reprimanded or convicted for carrying a knife in England and Wales, most of whom were adults. But one in five - 4,459 - was under the age of 18, the highest number for eight years. Regional variation in knife crime offences Knife offences per 100,000 people by region, England and Wales, year ending March 2018 Source: Home Office Knife crime tends to be more prevalent in large cities, particularly in London. For every 100,000 people in the capital, there were 168 knife offences in 2017-18, with separate figures, from the mayor's office, showing that young black and minority ethnic teenage boys and men were disproportionately affected, as both victims and perpetrators. The Metropolitan Police Chief Commissioner Cressida **** has said tackling violence in London is her "priority". Next highest was the West Midlands, with 72 knife offences per 100,000 population, and Yorkshire and the Humber, 79. What has happened to stop and searches? Stop and searches in England and Wales Source: Home Office The explanations for rising knife crime have ranged from police budget cuts, to gang violence and disputes between drug dealers. Some have also cited the steep decline in the use by police of stop and search. The powers enable officers to search people on the street if they have reasonable grounds to suspect they may be carrying weapons, illegal drugs, stolen property or items to be used to commit a crime. People can also be searched without reasonable grounds if a senior officer believes there's a risk of serious violence in a particular area. From 2009, the number of stops fell sharply across England and Wales, especially in London, primarily because of concerns that the measures unfairly targeted young black men, wasted police resources and were ineffective at catching criminals. Theresa May, as home secretary, led efforts to drive down the number of stops, but there's anecdotal evidence from police that young people are now more inclined to carry knives because of growing confidence they won't be stopped. The statistical basis for that is far from clear - but Scotland Yard, with the mayor of London's support, has begun increasing the use of stop and search again. How have police officer numbers changed? Number of police officers in England and Wales Source: Home Office, year ending September Since 2010, police numbers have decreased by almost 20,000. Prime Minister Theresa May has said there is no "direct correlation" between the rise in knife crime and a fall in police numbers, but the issue is contested. Last year, a Home Affairs Committee report said police forces were "struggling to cope" amid falling staff numbers and a leaked Home Office document said they had "likely contributed" to a rise in serious violent crime. Tougher sentences for knife crime are increasing Immediate custodial sentences for knife offences, England and Wales Source: Ministry of Justice, year ending December The average prison term for those jailed for carrying a knife or other offensive weapon has gone up from almost five months to well over eight months, with 85% serving at least three months, compared with 53% only 10 years ago. Sentences for all kinds of violent crime have been getting tougher, particularly for knife crime. The Ministry of Justice tracks the penalties imposed for those caught carrying knives and other offensive weapons in England and Wales. In the year ending December 2018, 37% of those dealt with were jailed and a further 18% were given a suspended prison sentence. The figures for 2008, when the data was first compiled, were 20% and 9% respectively. Over the same period, there's been a steady decline in the use of community sentences, and a sharp drop in cautions, from 30% to 11%. Public anxiety about knife crime, legislative changes and firmer guidance for judges and magistrates have led to the stiffer sentences, although offenders under 18 are still more likely to be cautioned than locked up. Additional research by Ben Butcher.
  18. I never said a date. I always contend they have to finish the 2016 SBA with the IMF. In order to do that, Iraq has to have a full government seated so until that happens, the IMF can't or won't progress forward. After the Iraqi election, I even doubted anything substantial would get done this year. Until a fully formed government is seated nothing will get done on the IMF front. The last word from the IMF on the SBA was in Nov 2017. Not a good omen.
  19. Honey is a natural sweetener. Believe it or not is actually good for the body.
  20. When I was doing my Master of Science in Business Intelligence degree I came across the below article in my research. The data comes from the Pew Research Center and is portending as to what s coming ahead. With the current pool of Democrat Presidential Candidates using the mantra "Free Medicare-for-all" they are living in the moment and not really looking forward. Several take aways stem from this article: The current Healthcare System is set up for geriatric care in addition to the number of patients, or volume. The reduction in the age and number of patients seeking medical care means types of care that are not geriatric care is going to be the focus going forward. By the year 2030, if healthcare professionals do not diversify into other niches beyond geriatric care, there will be a huge number of layoffs. This is in addition to the closing of hospitals that cannot fill beds or do geriatric related surgeries. This does not mean geriatric care will not be needed just a large reduction in the number of caregivers and facilities to treat geriatric patients. Baby Boomer generation had a population at its peak 78.8 million compared to that of the Millennial Generation (earliest born in 1996) at its peak population is 62 million. When combined with numerous articles in 2017 stating the current birth rate of 60.2 births per 1,000 women in the age range of 15 to 44, a 30-year low in 2017, this is unsustainable for the indigenous population of the United States. This equates to approximately 2.1 children per couple and is falling year-over-year. A sustainable birth rate is around 2.4 children per couple. What does this all mean, the "free medicare for all" just by the population numbers is and will be unsustainable going into the future. This includes those healthcare professionals who do not seek out new avenues in which to continue their careers in the healthcare industry. The United States is not the only country to face the dilemma of having an unsustainable birth rate for its indigenous population. Around the world, most Western nations, more specifically, all countries who embrace abortion as a means of birth control face the dilemma of not having a sustainable birth rate for its population. There are several mitigating factors for this reduction in addition to abortion. Women in the workforce (I am not against this) has pushed the age of women having children to the mid-thirties. Women, in favor of a professional career, who have children later in their lives have fewer children overall. When a couple takes this view, of putting off having children to focus on career, they are less likely to have greater than or equal to the required number of children needed to meet the sustainable figure. This has a ripple effect across the spectrum of the population. First, this ripple effect means there is a lesser tax base. Meaning that there are fewer people working to make a contribution to the tax system. All opinions aside, a potential maximum workforce to maximize the taxable income is being reduced by the very people who are wanting more government entitlements. Second, this means if you are terrified that AI is going to take your job, you don't have to worry because there will not be a person in existence to replace you in your job. AI or robots, should not be feared due to the fact that the potential maximum workforce is being reduced at an alarming rate. Lastly, it will become so grossly apparent that politicians will no longer be able to kick the can down the road to fund current projects such as "free medicare for all", free tuition etc. One option is to follow in the footsteps of our northern brother from the same mother - Canada. Canada also faces the low birth rate dilemma and have countered by welcoming legal immigrants. (Noticed the clarification in front of the word "immigrants"). Legal immigration can counter this but it takes a few generations before children of legal immigrants feel loyalty to the country they live in. If we are to increase our indigenous numbers, couples need to have more children, not less. They need to have them earlier in their careers, not later. And if "free medicare for all" is going to cause trillions of dollars in debt for our healthcare facilities leading to layoffs, then it will become vastly apparent the United States did not need "free medicare for all" to accomplish this. We can blame it on the dwindling Baby Boomer population and the Millennials for having children later in life. A counter would be to welcome legal immigration t those who wish to live the American life. Millennials projected to overtake Baby Boomers as America’s largest generation BY RICHARD FRY Millennials are on the cusp of surpassing Baby Boomers as the nation’s largest living adult generation, according to population projections from the U.S. Census Bureau. As of July 1, 2016 (the latest date for which population estimates are available), Millennials, whom we define as ages 20 to 35 in 2016, numbered 71 million, and Boomers (ages 52 to 70) numbered 74 million. Millennials are expected to overtake Boomers in population in 2019 as their numbers swell to 73 million and Boomers decline to 72 million. Generation X (ages 36 to 51 in 2016) is projected to pass the Boomers in population by 2028. The Millennial generation continues to grow as young immigrants expand its ranks. Boomers – whose generation was defined by the boom in U.S. births following World War II – are aging and their numbers shrinking in size as the number of deaths among them exceeds the number of older immigrants arriving in the country. Because generations are analytical constructs, it takes time for popular and expert consensus to develop as to the precise boundaries that demarcate one generation from another. Pew Research Center has assessed demographic, labor market, attitudinal and behavioral measures and has now established an endpoint – albeit inexact – for the Millennial generation. According to our revised definition, the youngest “Millennial” was born in 1996. This post has been updated accordingly (see note below). Here’s a look at some generational projections: Millennials With immigration adding more numbers to this group than any other, the Millennial population is projected to peak in 2036 at 76.2 million. Thereafter, the oldest Millennial will be at least 56 years of age and mortality is projected to outweigh net immigration. By 2050 there will be a projected 74.3 million Millennials. Generation X For a few more years, Gen Xers are projected to remain the “middle child” of generations – caught between two larger generations, the Millennials and the Boomers. Gen Xers were born during a period when Americans were having fewer children than in later decades. When Gen Xers were born, births averaged around 3.4 million per year, compared with the 3.9 million annual rate from 1981 to 1996 when the Millennials were born. Though the oldest Gen Xer was 51 in 2016, the Gen X population is projected to grow for a couple more years. Gen Xers are projected to outnumber Boomers in 2028, when there will be 64.6 million Gen Xers and 63.7 million Boomers. The Census Bureau projects that the Gen X population will peak at 65.8 million in 2018. Baby Boomers Baby Boomers have always had an outsize presence compared with other generations. They peaked at 78.8 million in 1999 and have remained the largest living adult generation. There were an estimated 74.1 million Boomers in 2016. By midcentury, the Boomer population is projected to dwindle to 16.6 million. Note: This post was originally published on Jan. 16, 2015. It was updated April 25, 2016, under the headline “Millennials overtake Baby Boomers as America’s largest generation,” which reflected the Center’s definition of Millennials at the time (born between 1981 and 1997). This third version reflects the Center’s newly revised definition, under which Millennial births end in 1996.
  21. I take B-complex 125 which has 125 mg of niacin amongst its ingredients. The trouble with B3, also known as Niacin, is that it may drop cholesterol levels but it raises blood sugar levels. That is not good for diabetics. B-complex 125 is good for energy, nervous system, and nutrient metabolism. It contains thiamine, B2, B3 (Niacin), pyridoxine, folic acid, B12. The pill is a horse pill. Combined with some caffeine and you are up all day. If I can, I prefer to get my vitamins and nutrients naturally than through a supplement. I will get them whichever way I can, which is why these are supplements, not replacements.
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