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Posts posted by Hairball51
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This sounds to me like the cost estimates for introducing the new currency after they "remove" or "delete" the zeroes from the nominal rate. There is even mention within the cost breakdown of "media cost". I am assuming this is in regards to television and print to educate the Iraqi people on the new transaction process. You can't just turn this loose as street vendors would take advantage of some poor fool who wasn't aware of the new value. This is good in that there cannot be an issuing of new currency without an RV.
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I just posted another article today from yesterday of a regurgitated article about putting the deletion of 0's on hold. I never have been one to believe "smoke/mirrors" but seems really odd that they always have to throw some crap in there when really good articles come out. Kind of like our democrats vs republicans. Drives you nuts...
Yeah it does get frustrating for sure!
Here's how I see it going down...They will "remove" or "delete" the zeroes from the nominal rate (.00086 to .86) sometime before the new year. Iraq could do this immediately as their reserves prove they could handle that rate but time will tell when they will do it. As I said though, I think it will be before the new year. They will allow this rate to float and let the market set any further movement. There was an article out the other day speaking of them moving to a more market driven economy which I'm sure includes the rate. The rate movement will more than likely be up as countries continue to invest and oil revenues increase both now and long term. And finally, the newer LD's will be released around January 1st replacing the HD's that Iraq has been buying back through auctions and from investors like us taking the .86 rate to the bank to cash in.
IMHO.....
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From the way I understand it after reading several different posts, an RV (re-value) in which they are deleting zero's would be off the nominal value... in other words, an exchange rate of .00086 (or whatever it is) would become .86 .... if the RD (re-denominate) that would be the scenerio we don't want where a 25000 note becomes a 25 dinar note....
Anyone else have see this the same way?
Absolutely! This has been their objective from the beginning. People see Turkey and Lebanon and assume they're talking about the same process, they're not. There are plenty of resources that show from the very beginning, the plan was to remove the zeroes from the nominal value even going so far as to mention in a few articles "decimal places". The only thing that deals with decimal places is the nominal rate. Through really bad translations, people have come to believe in a LOP.
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they have to reduce their money supply before we see anything substantial.
They are removing money through the auctions which reduces the money supply I guess. For every 200 million dollar auction, they are pulling in about 172,000 dinar...
In other words, it's dinar they've already bought back.
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The point is that they have a ton of reserves especially when you consider all the frozen assets around the globe they should recover soon. I've seen estimates for those at around 80 billion. So, in other words, they're loaded! And when the lifting of the zeroes occurs and the exchange rate goes from .00086 to .86 and they let it float from there and let the market make any future adjustments, it will continue to rise. Their reserves can handle this scenario right now...yet we wait patiently.
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Yeah... you are right. Why bother dollarizing and "pulling in" the large notes if they would simply honor them at a lesser face value?
Makes sense now!
Exactly! Right on Total! JWJW has some great articles posted on post #32...read those. Also hame55 makes a great point too...if they're delaying the deletion of zeroes til conditions are right, as many recent reports are claiming, logically they can't be talking about a LOP as there are no conditions necessary for a LOP to take place (other than staggering inflation which Iraq doesn't have but Turkey and Lebanon did)...they would just do it! And they would have a long time ago when a LOP would've made sense.
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The last article in English is from The another site Newsletter which did not come through for some reason.
What the hell is going on? I try to type another site newsletter and "the another site" newsletter pops up!!!!
Ok let me try it this way....A m e r i c a n C o n t r a c t o r s N e w s l e t t e r
Thank you for posting all of this info!
Like I said, read it and you'll see what they're intentions have been all along. Turkey and Lebanon are two totally different entities all together. They both had staggering inflation with nowhere near the reserves and potential as Iraq. A LOP would be the craziest thing they could do not to mention, Mahi nailed it when he said they would've done it by now.
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Sorry for the above post as some of it ran together and makes it difficult to follow. However, if you read it all, you'll see what I am talking about. They will NOT do a LOP!!!
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We know that through the auctions, the CBI has been removing these HD's for a while by paying a fixed rate of around $1 per 1166 dinars. As these HD's disappear from the street there will be a need for LD's which will be released. We know they have them and are delaying the release. Any new LD has to be a part of an RV otherwise the LD release would be pointless. The article below is very telling as to what their intentions are. You'll see the term "gradual" used as well meaning a float will be part of the process. Also, every time an article mentions Turkey or Lebanon, who did lop their currency, people get concerned. Turkey removed the zeros off the currency which made the old currency obsolete. Iraq intends to still be collecting the old notes for at least two years, as you'll read below, and has stated that they will both be good currency and usable for that length of time. Ultimately the zeros will be gone off of the Iraqi currency as they were in Turkey's case but it is the way they are going to do it that is different. THERE WILL BE NO LOP!!!!! The reference to other countries is the result, not the process! I hope this helps everyone! Relax...it never has been their intention to drop zeroes from bills and these articles help explain that. Also, see badrabbit's posts that help further what I have put here....
Also, something that is very telling is the April 2012 SIGIR (Special Inspector General for Iraqi Reconstruction) report that said this:"...official exchange rate for Iraqi dinar strengthened marginally against the U.S. dollar, selling at 1,166 per dollar through much of the quarter. That rate is down slightly from 1,170—a level that had held constant for the past three years. However, a spike in demand for dollars generated by merchants from neighboring Iran and Syria—suddenly unable to procure sufficient amounts of the U.S. currency at home because of international sanctions—helped drive the unofficial street exchange rate above 1,320 dinar in mid-April. In April 2012, the CoM postponed indefinitely plans for a currency reform that would have removed three zeros from the Iraqi dinar in 2013 and required the issuance of new currency notes. The reform would have made the dinar’s value slightly less than $1. It is currently worth less than one tenth of a cent .376."http://www.sigir.mil/files/quarterlyreports/April2012/Report_-_April_2012.pdf#view=fit (Look to page 94 in the file to find the above quote)Plus, as badrabbit made mention of in the videos and articles he posted, there has been mention of "decimal points" in certain articles. Below I have copy and pasted something I posted about a week ago. It goes right along with badrabbit's posts.I wanted to throw this out there for discussion about the "deletion" or "raising" of the zeroes. Not only has there has been a lot of chatter lately about when this may take place (recent CBI statements say they are suspending ideas to do it indefinitely) but also in regards to what they mean by "raising" or "deleting" the zeroes. I think I may have found something that will help explain what they mean.
I would like to submit an article from January 1, 2012, found here http://www.alsumaria...ue-of-iraqi-din , in which the Deputy Governor of the Iraqi Central Bank Mozhar Mohammad Saleh is discussing the issue. The part of the article I would like to focus on is this: "Deputy Governor of Iraqi Central Bank Mazhar Mohammad Saleh revealed, on December 14, that Central Bank is willing to create 3 money categories following the deletion of 3 zeros from Iraqi Dinar. The currency exchange requires about two years, Saleh pointed out. Reserves of foreign currencies in Central Bank of Iraq increased, for the first time in Iraqi history, to 60 billion Dollars, Saleh announced on December 6 explaining that Central Bank can curb inflation if it reached two decimal ranks." The fact that he makes mention of "decimal ranks" (decimal points) is what I find so interesting. It leaves little doubt to me that the "raising" or "deletion" of zeroes is in reference to the exchange rate, currently 1 IQD = 0.000859900 USD, and NOT the deletion of zeroes from the bills themselves. This is the only place I've ever seen in all the reporting out of Iraq where "decimal" points is mentioned regarding the issue of zeroes. So, as so many have stated in other posts, if you "raise" or "delete" the zeroes from the exchange rate you get 1 IQD = 0.859900 USD. Perhaps this will be their jumping off point and allow it to freely float from there?
Also, the line "Central Bank is willing to create 3 money categories following the deletion of 3 zeros from Iraqi Dinar". Is he talking about issuing the smaller denominations after the "deletion of 3 zeroes"? For example....1's, 10's, and 20's, or whatever....That would seem to make sense as well because as we know, they are not ready to release the LD's just yet which might be the reason the CBI recently said they're suspending the "raising of zeroes indefinitely". Adam has been saying all along that no RV could take place without the LD's being part of it.
Read more: http://dinarvets.com/forums/index.php?/user/53592-hairball51/#ixzz2Yer7nnfTAnd finally, because I do not have all day to post some of these (there are a few more), I will submit the following report from The another site Newsletter. There is no need for translation on this article as it is in English and it is very clear in the article what the "removal" of zeroes means. I highlighted the important paragraph. Its amazing how the American contractors who were and still are on the ground in Iraq, know what they mean.
The Iraqi Minister of Oil recently announced that Iraq had increased their oil output to 2.9 million barrels a day. However,that figure is exaggerated. Iraq only exported 2.2 million barrels a day due to the limitations of the infrastructure. Iraq is hoping to reach 3 million barrels a day in out put oil production by the end of the month. This remains to be seen as going from 2.9 to 3 million barrels a day in output capacity with the current limitations will be difficult. In any case, this is a milestone for Iraq.
http://www.foxbusiness.com/industries/2011/10/22/iraq-oil-output-capacity-jumps-to-250-million-bd-oil-minister/
The Troops here in Iraq are definitely leaving at the end of the year and with this goes the hundreds of millions of dollars the troops or the US government brought to Iraq. This will have a lasting effect on the Iraqi economy. This scenario could be short lived if the Iraqi government can acquire foreign investments. The Iraqi government will now have to find the funds to fill the void.
After numerous meetings and consulting with various entities the consensus is that there will not be any movement with the Iraqi Dinar currency. The Iraq currency reform report will not commence this year as the Iraqi parliament will not schedule this for discussions. This remains in the hands of the Council of Ministries who have already reviewed the currency reform report courtesy of Governor Sinan al-Shabibi. In addition, the Currency
Reform report has also been reviewed by a committee that has been set up by the Iraqi Parliament. There will be no action taken this year as more debates and discussions are continuing with the government and private enterprise. This is the reason for the continued articles in the media referencing the same facts over and over. The Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) continues to move at a snails pace when it comes to removing the 25k notes from circulation and at such time will be replacing those denominations with another newer Iraqi currency. There are six new denominations being
considered and when the decision is finalized they will be printed. Many claim this is premature as the Iraqi Parliament, Council of Ministries and the legal department are still reviewing and debating the Central Bank of Iraq Currency Reform report.
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capt cliff -- thanks mucho for your thoughts +1
Thank you UNEEK for bringing this in here. I go between this site and Kap's as I think they are the two best sites out there. I think what Tlar, Kap, and Ernorstre say is pretty logical stuff and have a lot of evidence to back it up. Truth is, they are not "GURU's" no matter how some want to portray them and dismiss what they say. Thanks again for bringing this here...
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Well said... if they were going to LOP they would have done it years ago... Instead they've been dollarizing the country and bringing in as much IQD as possible through their auctions. Sounds to me they know exactly what they've reduced to in country in terms of how much IQD is still floating around (in country). A LOP would do nothing for them.. i think anybody that still believes a LOP is probable hasn't really educated themselves
Right back at you my friend! I totally agree especially when you look back to the original intent of the new currency and the raising of the zeroes. I've been doing a lot of digging in the last 24 hours and have found some pretty good stuff that should help quell the fears of a LOP...I just need the time to post them...lol.
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Great find!
Btw... Strongest in the region does NOT mean a lop or a 1 to 1.
Amen to that!!!
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The indicative rates on their front page of the cbi website
Aaaaahhh yes I see it now... thanks...
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does anyone know why the cbi.iq hasn't updated since July 4?
What specifically hasn't update because I was able to see auction info and exchange rate info???
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In the grand scheme of things this could be a "Courtesy Nod or Insider Hand Shake " to the world banking community that changes is going into effect. So if there are any Real Players out there that want to jump on board nows your chance! Look at it like this "if you have a party " and Warren Buffet is late does it really matter ? Money is the key and the only key..If i was in charge of this I would be dropping hints to every Billioniare on the plant..So we could be buddies after it's over and everyone is happy! That would insure "iraqi's place at the table of power" IMHO
Phenomenal point and something I didn't think of...
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deleting three zeroes could be resetting the currency. replacing the current currency could be be resetting the currency. a rv, would be resetting the value. big difference.
im not jumping all in on some vague...article. sorry if thats considered a half full approach
I don't think anyone is advocating quitting their job and going nuts but this article, along with many that came out over the weekend, is a good reason to be optimistic....not foolish...but optimistic.
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News just keeps getting better!!!
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I'm lost as to why they would come out and say such things, no matter how great they may be for us, but they completely go along with what Kahlil said all weekend long!
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The latest daily currency auction was held in the Central Bank of Iraq on the 8-Jul-2013. The results were as follows:
DETAILS NOTES Number of banks 19 Auction price selling dinar / US$ 1166 Auction price buying dinar / US$ ----- Amount sold at auction price (US$) 227,768,000 Amount purchased at Auction price (US$) ----- Total offers for buying (US$) 227,768,000 Total offers for selling (US$) -----
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I thought I would throw this out there too! And this is from Maliki! Given this statement and what I posted above, if strengthening the dinar is their ultimate objective, a LOP just doesn't seem to be the way to do it. I believe the last line of this article is speaking directly about the purchasing power of the dinar against the dollar.
Said a member of the Economic Committee in the House of Representatives Abdul Salam al-Maliki said the government tends to take urgent steps to strengthen the Iraqi dinar.
Maliki said that the government would take steps to transform the Iraqi market to a promising market, noting that the Iraqi Central Bank is responsible for monetary policy and there is a tendency for the integration work between the central bank and the government to raise the purchasing power of of dinars Fimkabl the dollar. -
I see nothing good in this at all. After holding dinar for almost a decade, I am hoping to make something off it.
Roadrunner
It's funny how two people can read the same articles and come to two different conclusions. I thought it was pretty good news in that in the first article they tie the deletion of zeroes into a currency exchange. They were discussing the deletion when they said "the parliamentary asked the central bank to wait on the subject of currency exchange" and to me that sounds like pulling in HD's and releasing LD's. I think this kind of backs it up when they said "a number of measures should be taken when you begin to replace the currency, including strengthening the purchasing power of the dinar." As I said, it sucks they're talking about delaying the process until perhaps after the e;ections but maybe this is a clue as to how they will go about doing it?
In the second article, "during the deletion of the remake of the currency" sounds again a lot like pulling in HD's and releasing LD's. Plus, I think Iraq going from "debtor to donor" in the context of speaking of the reserves is good news as well. If they're wanting to give the dinar more purchasing power, a LOP seems unlikely. Just my opinion though...I don't want to see this thing in an unreasonable light. I think all the info we can get will help us to kind of see where they might be headed even if it is after the elections.
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11:11 07/08/2013
Baghdad - and babysit - a member of the Finance Committee ruled Faleh parliamentary force the deletion of zeros from the currency during the current period due to poor political and security situation in the country.
The sari in a press statement that "the Finance Committee, the parliamentary asked the central bank to wait on the subject of currency exchange due to the circumstances political, security and near the time of the parliamentary elections, noting that this topic would be delayed until after the next election can not proceed applied in the present time."
"The experience of the deletion of zeros from the Iraqi dinar is not the first experiment of its kind, as some expected, but that there are many experiences in the world has proved successful, pointing out that a number of measures should be taken when you begin to replace the currency, including strengthening the purchasing power of the dinar."
And "he must permeate the mechanism of deletion of zeros from the dinar great technique ensure that fraud when you change the currency, adding that the process of withdrawal of currency must fall within the mechanisms and procedures include the lack of pushing counterfeit currency where the new currency, and this will contribute significantly to the support of the Iraqi dinar and strengthening the economy, "... p / i
http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=auto&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Falrayy.com%2F--
To me this screams removal of the higher denominations while releasing LD's and increasing the purchasing power of the dinar...RV perhaps?
I know it says it should be delayed but as long as this is the process, we'll all be happy!
Here is another positive article: Baghdad-time
Member of the Economic Committee predicted Parliamentary Abdul Hussein abtan, Sunday, the political problems do not affect the project delete zeros of the Iraqi currency Pointing out that Chapter VII was the largest project of the marokat claimant damages currency accumulation.
Abtan said in a statement to "time", "the Central Bank introduced an integrated project to the Government and Parliament, and long discussions with experts and specialists, contributed to ease caveats from the deletion process.
And that "everyone finds positives to raise zeros from the currency more drawbacks, as well as being an economic strategy while inevitable drawbacks within record time by the Central Bank".
Alabtan noted that "this does not mean the absence of negatives in the project, there will be administrative and financial effort for the success of the operation, in addition to the potential constraints and other financial arrangements may get during the deletion of the remake of the currency".
He pointed out that "Item 7 which came out of Iraq was the greatest obstacles to the implementation of the project, the possibility of accumulation of currency abroad claim compensation, but after this, it became necessary to start deleting zeros ", indicating that the cash reserves in the Central Bank reached $ 76 billion, and that Iraq turned from debtor country to a donor country, is a clear".
The "proven experience in neighbouring countries such as Turkey and Lebanon and other do not have to worry about currency and economy setback".
He was Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of the former appearance of Mohamed Saleh warned start raising zeros at the present time, given the Iraq parliamentary election turnout of 2014 can create a transitional situation confused affect negative currency.
To see Iraq as a donor nation and not a debtor nation to other nations makes sense to me only through the light of an RV. Am I being too naive? Lol....
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I thought these minor fluctuations were the result of the dollars movement. As of now, the dinar is not trading internationally so these are fluctuations based off the dollar and CBI's auctions.
This is a pinned topic and this should really help explain it: http://dinarvets.com/forums/index.php?/topic/102812-please-stop-looking-iqd-is-not-on-forex/
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The news lately concerning the removal of zeroes seems to be all positive in that it is the kind of "removal" we're looking for...the removal of the higher denominations. They've been accompanied with statements about improving the purchasing power of the dinar and making a 25,000 dinar a 25 doesn't accomplish that objective. Try this too: http://dinarvets.com/forums/index.php?/topic/153565-possible-clarification-on-deletion-or-raising-zeroes/#entry1205082
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Delete the zeros
in RV & Dinar Questions
Posted
Just curious but was Turkey and Lebanon stable? That's a serious question and not a challenge...It would seem to me that their economies were a mess with staggering inflation...but that's just me...